- Joined
- Jun 28, 2010
- Messages
- 48,176
- Name
- Burger man
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/stor...t-best-value-signings-trades-nfl?refresh=true
Troy Taormina/USA TODAY SportsRyan Fitzpatrick should help the Jets upgrade their QB situation.
Without NFL free agency, the past two Super Bowl champions would have had to win without Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Darrelle Revis and others such as Rob Ninkovich and Brandon Browner. The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots would have had a tougher time reaching championship form, even though everyone in the league knows free agency isn't the primary way to build a contender.
The veteran market can supplement a healthy diet, but it cannot replace the diet. That is why weaker teams have a harder time maximizing their investments in veteran players. My list of "best values" roughly one week into the signing period features players headed to a range of organizations, from the Super Bowl champion Patriots to teams holding top-five picks in the 2015 draft. Three quarterbacks acquired by trade also made the cut for varying reasons.
1. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, New York Jets
Fitzpatrick wouldn't rank among the five best players on this list, but he sits in the top value spot for a combination of reasons: margin of upgrade, importance of position, fit with coaches, price of trade and salary of player. The level at which Fitzpatrick has played over the past two seasons should be worth about 2.5 additional victories per season relative to the level Jets quarterbacks have played over the same span. That reflects methodology used in 2013 to explain why Carson Palmer was going to add victories for Arizona. Fitzpatrick's experience in Chan Gailey's offense should ease the transition. The Jets will give up a 2016 conditional pick to Houston in exchange for Fitzpatrick, who is under contract through this season and is set to earn $3.25 million.
2. Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks
It's still shocking to think that Graham would be available less than one year after signing an extension with New Orleans. He gives a championship-caliber team a game-changing talent on a contract that is manageable over its remaining three seasons. For Seattle, giving up a first-round pick for Graham meant parting with center Max Unger and a draft prospect the Seahawks could have controlled for up to six seasons. Graham is a surer bet than any player Seattle might have drafted at No. 31. Injury concerns made parting with Unger easier to justify.
3. Nick Foles, QB, St. Louis Rams
The Rams picked up a much cheaper and possibly more available alternative to Sam Bradfordwhen they acquired Foles with a 2015 fourth-round pick and a 2016 second-rounder for Bradford and a fifth-rounder this year. They gained $11.4 million in salary-cap space as well. Foles might not be better than Bradford, and he might wind up being one-and-done in St. Louis, but this still seemed like good value for the Rams once Bradford resisted a salary reduction. Bradford's health concerns were another consideration. St. Louis plans to win with defense and its ground game, anyway. The team can now evaluate Foles on the cheap ($1.7 million salary).
4. Henry Melton, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Melton is getting $3.25 million fully guaranteed at a position of value. He has a history with Buccaneers coach Lovie Smith, meaning Tampa Bay should have little trouble finding a productive role for him in the rotation. A weak pass rush doomed the Buccaneers last season. Melton doesn't fix the problem, but he helps address it.
5. Nick Fairley, DT, St. Louis Rams
The Rams will have one of the NFL's best defensive lines whether or not Fairley approaches his potential. The team isn't banking on Fairley, and there are no long-term ramifications if the 2011 first-round choice disappoints. This deal is all upside for all involved. Fairley has a chance to position himself in the market for 2016.
6. Jabaal Sheard, OLB/DL, New England Patriots
New England is getting a soon-to-be 26-year-old defender who has played in 58 of 61 games over his first four seasons. The Patriots got him on a two-year deal with $5 million fully guaranteed. New England fared well in adding Akeem Ayers last season. Sheard would also seem to be a good fit for the Patriots' staff.
7. Owen Daniels, TE, Denver Broncos
Daniels is a proven performer in coordinator Gary Kubiak's offense. He now has a chance to play with a great quarterback, provided Peyton Manning is healthy and regains even most of his early 2014 form. Daniels received $3 million fully guaranteed, one-seventh of the sum former Broncos tight end Julius Thomas got from Jacksonville. Daniels is not Thomas, but he was a perfectly logical addition at an affordable price.
8. Sam Bradford, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
This move was puzzling to some because Foles lit up the stat sheet in 2013, but there were rumblings early last season suggesting the Eagles increasingly preferred Mark Sanchez. Once the Eagles determined Foles was not for them, it made sense to get value for him. Bradford carries a nearly $13 million salary, a negative in the equation, and he could be damaged goods. There's also a chance Bradford could transform Chip Kelly's offense. Philadelphia had cap room to burn in the short term. The Eagles now have in Bradford a player who excelled in a spread offense at Oklahoma before becoming the first pick in the 2010 draft.
9. Rahim Moore, S, Houston Texans
Moore arguably regressed during his tenure in Denver, but a fresh start could work well for him two years after his coverage error against Baltimore helped the Ravens reach the Super Bowl at Denver's expense. Teams have paid a premium for safeties, as the position has been harder to fill with quality players. Moore is getting $4.5 million fully guaranteed.
10. Trent Cole, DE, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have obvious holes on their roster, but Andrew Luck and a weak division put them in position to contend anyway. That is why the team's decision to add Cole, Frank Gore and Andre Johnson can make sense. Cole is not necessarily a bargain as a 32-year-old pass-rusher getting $8 million fully guaranteed, but he fills an obvious need at a position of importance for a team with a chance to contend.
Notes
Bucs and the No. 1 pick: I've been among those thinking Tampa Bay would use the first overall choice for Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston, but the case for the Buccaneers selecting Marcus Mariota is an intriguing one. As a former team administrator put it to me, it requires understanding how the broader context could lead Buccaneers ownership away from Winston and toward Mariota.
This line of thinking holds that ownership in Tampa is still stinging from an ill-fated spending spree in free agency last offseason. Before that, those same owners endured a tumultuous and sometimes embarrassing run under former coach Greg Schiano. Winston would represent another gamble as a player with some red flags off the field. Mariota would represent the safer play.
Figuring out what general manager Jason Licht, coach Lovie Smith and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter might prefer in a quarterback is obviously important. It also might be naive to think Buccaneers ownership will not factor in on a decision of this magnitude. For more context, check out the section on Tampa Bay from this 2013 column ranking potential coaching vacancies heading into the 2014 season.
QB comparison: Philip Rivers' intention to play out the final year of his contract with the San Diego Chargers hits at a key age-related variable in the AFC West. Rivers, 33, and a nearly 39-year-old Peyton Manning combined for 42 touchdown passes with eight interceptions through Week 8 last season. They were strong MVP candidates to that point. Then their seasons unraveled, as Rivers and Manning combined for 28 TDs with 25 INTs over the rest of the regular season. Injuries were a factor, but has a dramatic shift in the AFC West already begun?
Borland fallout: There has been no shortage of opinions on the broader implications associated with Chris Borland's decision to retire from the San Francisco 49ers at age 24. I think that is the biggest takeaway ultimately: There is no right answer for everyone. Some players are comfortable with the still vaguely defined risks associated with the sport. Others are less comfortable. Borland and some others might be willing to give up promising NFL careers in the interests of self-preservation.
Many lines of work carry physical, emotional and other risks. That is not going to change. Learning more about the longer-term implications will help individuals make informed choices.
Without NFL free agency, the past two Super Bowl champions would have had to win without Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Darrelle Revis and others such as Rob Ninkovich and Brandon Browner. The Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots would have had a tougher time reaching championship form, even though everyone in the league knows free agency isn't the primary way to build a contender.
The veteran market can supplement a healthy diet, but it cannot replace the diet. That is why weaker teams have a harder time maximizing their investments in veteran players. My list of "best values" roughly one week into the signing period features players headed to a range of organizations, from the Super Bowl champion Patriots to teams holding top-five picks in the 2015 draft. Three quarterbacks acquired by trade also made the cut for varying reasons.
1. Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, New York Jets
Fitzpatrick wouldn't rank among the five best players on this list, but he sits in the top value spot for a combination of reasons: margin of upgrade, importance of position, fit with coaches, price of trade and salary of player. The level at which Fitzpatrick has played over the past two seasons should be worth about 2.5 additional victories per season relative to the level Jets quarterbacks have played over the same span. That reflects methodology used in 2013 to explain why Carson Palmer was going to add victories for Arizona. Fitzpatrick's experience in Chan Gailey's offense should ease the transition. The Jets will give up a 2016 conditional pick to Houston in exchange for Fitzpatrick, who is under contract through this season and is set to earn $3.25 million.
2. Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks
It's still shocking to think that Graham would be available less than one year after signing an extension with New Orleans. He gives a championship-caliber team a game-changing talent on a contract that is manageable over its remaining three seasons. For Seattle, giving up a first-round pick for Graham meant parting with center Max Unger and a draft prospect the Seahawks could have controlled for up to six seasons. Graham is a surer bet than any player Seattle might have drafted at No. 31. Injury concerns made parting with Unger easier to justify.
3. Nick Foles, QB, St. Louis Rams
The Rams picked up a much cheaper and possibly more available alternative to Sam Bradfordwhen they acquired Foles with a 2015 fourth-round pick and a 2016 second-rounder for Bradford and a fifth-rounder this year. They gained $11.4 million in salary-cap space as well. Foles might not be better than Bradford, and he might wind up being one-and-done in St. Louis, but this still seemed like good value for the Rams once Bradford resisted a salary reduction. Bradford's health concerns were another consideration. St. Louis plans to win with defense and its ground game, anyway. The team can now evaluate Foles on the cheap ($1.7 million salary).
4. Henry Melton, DT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Melton is getting $3.25 million fully guaranteed at a position of value. He has a history with Buccaneers coach Lovie Smith, meaning Tampa Bay should have little trouble finding a productive role for him in the rotation. A weak pass rush doomed the Buccaneers last season. Melton doesn't fix the problem, but he helps address it.
5. Nick Fairley, DT, St. Louis Rams
The Rams will have one of the NFL's best defensive lines whether or not Fairley approaches his potential. The team isn't banking on Fairley, and there are no long-term ramifications if the 2011 first-round choice disappoints. This deal is all upside for all involved. Fairley has a chance to position himself in the market for 2016.
6. Jabaal Sheard, OLB/DL, New England Patriots
New England is getting a soon-to-be 26-year-old defender who has played in 58 of 61 games over his first four seasons. The Patriots got him on a two-year deal with $5 million fully guaranteed. New England fared well in adding Akeem Ayers last season. Sheard would also seem to be a good fit for the Patriots' staff.
7. Owen Daniels, TE, Denver Broncos
Daniels is a proven performer in coordinator Gary Kubiak's offense. He now has a chance to play with a great quarterback, provided Peyton Manning is healthy and regains even most of his early 2014 form. Daniels received $3 million fully guaranteed, one-seventh of the sum former Broncos tight end Julius Thomas got from Jacksonville. Daniels is not Thomas, but he was a perfectly logical addition at an affordable price.
8. Sam Bradford, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
This move was puzzling to some because Foles lit up the stat sheet in 2013, but there were rumblings early last season suggesting the Eagles increasingly preferred Mark Sanchez. Once the Eagles determined Foles was not for them, it made sense to get value for him. Bradford carries a nearly $13 million salary, a negative in the equation, and he could be damaged goods. There's also a chance Bradford could transform Chip Kelly's offense. Philadelphia had cap room to burn in the short term. The Eagles now have in Bradford a player who excelled in a spread offense at Oklahoma before becoming the first pick in the 2010 draft.
9. Rahim Moore, S, Houston Texans
Moore arguably regressed during his tenure in Denver, but a fresh start could work well for him two years after his coverage error against Baltimore helped the Ravens reach the Super Bowl at Denver's expense. Teams have paid a premium for safeties, as the position has been harder to fill with quality players. Moore is getting $4.5 million fully guaranteed.
10. Trent Cole, DE, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have obvious holes on their roster, but Andrew Luck and a weak division put them in position to contend anyway. That is why the team's decision to add Cole, Frank Gore and Andre Johnson can make sense. Cole is not necessarily a bargain as a 32-year-old pass-rusher getting $8 million fully guaranteed, but he fills an obvious need at a position of importance for a team with a chance to contend.
Notes
Bucs and the No. 1 pick: I've been among those thinking Tampa Bay would use the first overall choice for Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston, but the case for the Buccaneers selecting Marcus Mariota is an intriguing one. As a former team administrator put it to me, it requires understanding how the broader context could lead Buccaneers ownership away from Winston and toward Mariota.
This line of thinking holds that ownership in Tampa is still stinging from an ill-fated spending spree in free agency last offseason. Before that, those same owners endured a tumultuous and sometimes embarrassing run under former coach Greg Schiano. Winston would represent another gamble as a player with some red flags off the field. Mariota would represent the safer play.
Figuring out what general manager Jason Licht, coach Lovie Smith and offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter might prefer in a quarterback is obviously important. It also might be naive to think Buccaneers ownership will not factor in on a decision of this magnitude. For more context, check out the section on Tampa Bay from this 2013 column ranking potential coaching vacancies heading into the 2014 season.
QB comparison: Philip Rivers' intention to play out the final year of his contract with the San Diego Chargers hits at a key age-related variable in the AFC West. Rivers, 33, and a nearly 39-year-old Peyton Manning combined for 42 touchdown passes with eight interceptions through Week 8 last season. They were strong MVP candidates to that point. Then their seasons unraveled, as Rivers and Manning combined for 28 TDs with 25 INTs over the rest of the regular season. Injuries were a factor, but has a dramatic shift in the AFC West already begun?
Borland fallout: There has been no shortage of opinions on the broader implications associated with Chris Borland's decision to retire from the San Francisco 49ers at age 24. I think that is the biggest takeaway ultimately: There is no right answer for everyone. Some players are comfortable with the still vaguely defined risks associated with the sport. Others are less comfortable. Borland and some others might be willing to give up promising NFL careers in the interests of self-preservation.
Many lines of work carry physical, emotional and other risks. That is not going to change. Learning more about the longer-term implications will help individuals make informed choices.
