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Something to consider. From NY Times article.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/08/1...-preseason-games-meaningless-spoiler-yes.html
AUGUST 13, 2015
Keeping Score
By VICTOR MATHER
N.F.L. preseason games, which began in earnest on Thursday night, are regularly derided as meaningless. A tedious method to sort out the future backups from the soon-to-be-cut. A chance for top players to be injured. A cash grab with high-priced tickets, food and parking for an inferior product.
Coaches are reluctant to play their best players or show off their offensive and defensive schemes. No one wants to get hurt. The end result looks like football, but without consequence or passion.
Still, when fans see their team perform well in exhibitions, they may have at least a glimmer of hope that the new season will be a good one.
Well, shut off that glimmer. A strong preseason performance in the N.F.L. not only does not predict a good season, it could actually be a sign of a bad one.
In the last 10 years, 18 teams have been unbeaten and untied in preseason play. Those teams went on to post a combined regular-season record of only 130-158.
The teams that were perfect in the preseason also did not improve from the previous season, declining by a total of 23½ games, dropping more than one win per team.
In some cases, a good preseason did herald a successful year. The Broncos parlayed a perfect preseason in 2005 into a 13-3 record, and the 2013 Seahawks won the Super Bowl after a 4-0 preseason.
But more often, the preseason wonders flopped when the games started to count. In 2013, the Redskins, who had won 10 games the previous season, fell to 3-13. The 2011 Rams won all four games in the preseason, then went on to win just two regular-season games.
The most egregious case was the 2008 Lions. They swept through the preseason, outscoring their four opponents by 80-32. Among their victims were the Giants, who would go 12-4 that year.
The Lions fell apart in the regular season. Trying out Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky and Daunte Culpepper as starting quarterbacks, Detroit staggered to the league’s first 0-16 record.
In contrast to the summertime highfliers, eventual Super Bowl champions generally had undistinguished preseasons. Even with the 2013 Seahawks’ 4-0 record, the winners of the last 10 Super Bowls have posted a combined preseason record of only 23-17.
Preseason games have value to fringe players, coaches, and teams’ bottom lines. And FiveThirtyEight.com last year showed that the preseason can indicate whether a new quarterback is likely to succeed.
But in general, the prevailing wisdom about the preseason is correct. A great record is not a great sign for the future.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/08/1...-preseason-games-meaningless-spoiler-yes.html
AUGUST 13, 2015
Keeping Score
By VICTOR MATHER
N.F.L. preseason games, which began in earnest on Thursday night, are regularly derided as meaningless. A tedious method to sort out the future backups from the soon-to-be-cut. A chance for top players to be injured. A cash grab with high-priced tickets, food and parking for an inferior product.
Coaches are reluctant to play their best players or show off their offensive and defensive schemes. No one wants to get hurt. The end result looks like football, but without consequence or passion.
Still, when fans see their team perform well in exhibitions, they may have at least a glimmer of hope that the new season will be a good one.
Well, shut off that glimmer. A strong preseason performance in the N.F.L. not only does not predict a good season, it could actually be a sign of a bad one.
In the last 10 years, 18 teams have been unbeaten and untied in preseason play. Those teams went on to post a combined regular-season record of only 130-158.
The teams that were perfect in the preseason also did not improve from the previous season, declining by a total of 23½ games, dropping more than one win per team.
In some cases, a good preseason did herald a successful year. The Broncos parlayed a perfect preseason in 2005 into a 13-3 record, and the 2013 Seahawks won the Super Bowl after a 4-0 preseason.
But more often, the preseason wonders flopped when the games started to count. In 2013, the Redskins, who had won 10 games the previous season, fell to 3-13. The 2011 Rams won all four games in the preseason, then went on to win just two regular-season games.
The most egregious case was the 2008 Lions. They swept through the preseason, outscoring their four opponents by 80-32. Among their victims were the Giants, who would go 12-4 that year.
The Lions fell apart in the regular season. Trying out Jon Kitna, Dan Orlovsky and Daunte Culpepper as starting quarterbacks, Detroit staggered to the league’s first 0-16 record.
In contrast to the summertime highfliers, eventual Super Bowl champions generally had undistinguished preseasons. Even with the 2013 Seahawks’ 4-0 record, the winners of the last 10 Super Bowls have posted a combined preseason record of only 23-17.
Preseason games have value to fringe players, coaches, and teams’ bottom lines. And FiveThirtyEight.com last year showed that the preseason can indicate whether a new quarterback is likely to succeed.
But in general, the prevailing wisdom about the preseason is correct. A great record is not a great sign for the future.
