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Will Rams look to go for two more often moving forward?
By Nick Wagoner
http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-ra...ll-rams-look-to-go-for-two-more-often-in-2015
EARTH CITY, Mo. -- With the official announcement coming from the NFL this week that the extra point line of scrimmage is moving back from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line, it's left many wondering if teams will take a different approach to what they do after scoring touchdowns.
It will likely lead to teams at least giving more consideration to attempting 2-point conversions on a regular basis. It likely won't change much for the St. Louis Rams, though, given the success that kicker Greg Zuerlein has had on attempts on 32-33 yard field goals in the controlled climate and conditions of the Edward Jones Dome.
But what about when the Rams play on the road and the conditions aren't as good? One could argue that the Rams should take a longer look at going for two regardless of situation. Since 2001, the Rams have gone for two on 29 occasions. They've converted those tries 19 times, good for a 65.5 percent conversion rate. That ranks third in the NFL in conversion percentage in that span, trailing only the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chicago Bears.
While that number might look somewhat misleading since many of those tries didn't come with Jeff Fisher as head coach, there are more numbers that would support his being more aggressive in going for two. While the Steelers and Bears are ahead of the Rams on conversion rate since 2001, Fisher's former team that ranks fourth.
That's right, the Tennessee Titans are 16-of-27 on two-point conversions for a 59.3 percent rate, good for fourth in the league. In looking at those four teams, there seems to be a common thread that they're generally considered power-running teams capable of moving a pile 2 yards for a conversion.
If those numbers aren't enough to sway some teams to consider going for it more often, we can turn to some analytics from our friends at NumberFire. According to chief analyst Keith Goldner, the expected point total of a 2-point conversion from the 2-yard line is actually higher than an extra point from the 15-yard line.
Teams converted the extra point from the 2-yard line 99.7 percent of the time. The new extra point from the 15 is expected to have a conversion rate of 93.58 percent.
Conversely, 2-point conversions from the 2-yard line are converted about 48 percent of the time. But since the two-point conversion counts for double the points, it actually spits out an expected point total of .960, which is higher than the extra point from the 15-yard line. Here's the full breakdown from NumberFire on why it might make sense to go for two on a more consistent basis while factoring in game situation, conditions and more.
Many analytics types have long argued the appeal of the 2-point conversion. But now that change has come to the extra point, it's something the Rams and the rest of the league might now have to look at much closer.
By Nick Wagoner
http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-ra...ll-rams-look-to-go-for-two-more-often-in-2015
EARTH CITY, Mo. -- With the official announcement coming from the NFL this week that the extra point line of scrimmage is moving back from the 2-yard line to the 15-yard line, it's left many wondering if teams will take a different approach to what they do after scoring touchdowns.
It will likely lead to teams at least giving more consideration to attempting 2-point conversions on a regular basis. It likely won't change much for the St. Louis Rams, though, given the success that kicker Greg Zuerlein has had on attempts on 32-33 yard field goals in the controlled climate and conditions of the Edward Jones Dome.
But what about when the Rams play on the road and the conditions aren't as good? One could argue that the Rams should take a longer look at going for two regardless of situation. Since 2001, the Rams have gone for two on 29 occasions. They've converted those tries 19 times, good for a 65.5 percent conversion rate. That ranks third in the NFL in conversion percentage in that span, trailing only the Pittsburgh Steelers and Chicago Bears.
While that number might look somewhat misleading since many of those tries didn't come with Jeff Fisher as head coach, there are more numbers that would support his being more aggressive in going for two. While the Steelers and Bears are ahead of the Rams on conversion rate since 2001, Fisher's former team that ranks fourth.
That's right, the Tennessee Titans are 16-of-27 on two-point conversions for a 59.3 percent rate, good for fourth in the league. In looking at those four teams, there seems to be a common thread that they're generally considered power-running teams capable of moving a pile 2 yards for a conversion.
If those numbers aren't enough to sway some teams to consider going for it more often, we can turn to some analytics from our friends at NumberFire. According to chief analyst Keith Goldner, the expected point total of a 2-point conversion from the 2-yard line is actually higher than an extra point from the 15-yard line.
Teams converted the extra point from the 2-yard line 99.7 percent of the time. The new extra point from the 15 is expected to have a conversion rate of 93.58 percent.
Conversely, 2-point conversions from the 2-yard line are converted about 48 percent of the time. But since the two-point conversion counts for double the points, it actually spits out an expected point total of .960, which is higher than the extra point from the 15-yard line. Here's the full breakdown from NumberFire on why it might make sense to go for two on a more consistent basis while factoring in game situation, conditions and more.
Many analytics types have long argued the appeal of the 2-point conversion. But now that change has come to the extra point, it's something the Rams and the rest of the league might now have to look at much closer.
