Wait! There's a pattern here: Rams drafted RB's start off strong but continue to hit a wall?

[JKBOGEN]

Wait! There's a pattern here: Rams drafted RB's start off strong but continue to hit a wall?

http://www.downtownrams.com/single-...s-start-off-strong-but-continue-to-hit-a-wall

October 18th, 2016 | By: Jake Ellenbogen

What on earth is going on with Todd Gurley? The Rams need him more than ever now as they are fighting to keep ground in the NFC West and staring down a three-game losing streak in the face. Gurley is averaging 2.9 yards a carry which is atrocious to any NFL back's standards but definitely to a RB who won Rookie of the Year last year. As crazy as Gurley's struggles have been, is it a surprise? Judging by the Rams previous history of drafting RB's under Head coach Jeff Fisher and General manager Les Snead, it's not exactly uncommon for their backs to start off strong and then start to struggle. Lets take a look.

2012: Isaiah Pead (2nd Rd) & Daryl Richardson (7th Rd)
We won't actually get into Isaiah Pead because while he wasn't given much of a chance to really play, he had an injury and fumble problem. However, with Richardson he went from being a guy not expected to play much his rookie year due to the dual headed backfield of impending 2nd rounder Pead and Pro Bowl RB Steven Jackson. Well, Richardson ended up with 98 carries for 475 yards rushing and even added 24 catches for 163 yards receiving. Richardson wasn't amazing but he looked solid as a change of pace back who played in all 16 games his rookie year.

What went on after was Richardson winning the starting job for the 2013 season over Pead and new-comer rookie RB Zac Stacy. Richardson was victim of a poor blocking scheme that hurt the production of every back to start the season. He may have also been a victim of the fact he just isn't built to be a bell cow type of back. He only ended up with 69 carries for 215 yards but showed improvement in the passing game with 14 catches and 121 yards. Later on after the season he admitted he was slowed down and was ineffective due to the fact he played with a turf toe injury which ended up ruining his chances at being Steven Jackson's successor.

Richardson came into the 2014 off-season having to beat out standout rookie starter Zac Stacy, third-round pick Tre Mason, 2013 UDFA Benny Cunningham and fellow draft class member Isaiah Pead for the final spots, he lost and was waived.

2013: Zac Stacy (5th Rd)
The rookie out of Vanderbilt looked like a star in the making. He started off taking a backseat to aforementioned Daryl Richardson and shortly after went on to start the last 12 games of the season and almost eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark. Stacy finished his rookie season with 250 carries for 975 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. He also added 26 catches for 141 receiving yards and a touchdown.

Stacy in his second season was not how he imagined. He only received 76 carries for 293 yards rushing and a touchdown. He added 18 receptions for 152 yards but it wasn't the same Stacy. Stop me if you have heard this before, the rookie RB took over Stacy's starting job. Tre Mason ran away with the job and looked to be the Rams true home-run threat. Stacy would soon after ask for a trade after the 2014 season due to the Rams drafting RB Todd Gurley no.10 overall.

2014: Tre Mason (3rd Rd)
Like mentioned above Mason made the most out of his opportunities and it ultimately won him the starting job over Stacy. Tre Mason started in nine games and ran 179 times for 765 yards and four touchdowns. He added 16 catches for 148 receiving yards and a touchdown. Mason didn't get to start as many games as Stacy did in his rookie year which is why his production seems low but he actually ended up averaging over four yards per carry which is something Stacy never did.

Of course the pattern that is developing throughout this piece. The Rams drafted the rookie RB Todd Gurley who was rehabbing an ACL tear at Georgia. Tre Mason because of this he was supposed to open the season as the starter but had to sit out week one due to an injury so Benny Cunningham started week one. Mason started the next two games and looked lost and indecisive during them, clearly not the Mason we saw the year before. Then Gurley came in week four and blew up, went on to take the league by storm and suffered an injury week 16 that gave Mason his last chance to start in which he got in the end zone but his 2.4 yards per carry were lackluster.

After that game, we haven't seen Mason since quite honestly I hope as well as every Rams fan I have talked to hopes Mason will get his life back together but he seems to completely have lost his mind and that could be due to foreign substances he's rumored to have taken or the fact his play went downhill. Either way Mason has hit a wall just like the rest of the Rams backs and while we hope to see him on the field some day in the future, it doesn't look realistic at this time.

2015: Todd Gurley (1st Rd)
Obviously he is the starting RB of the L.A. Rams but where is the real Todd Gurley? He started off his rookie campaign in week four when he made his first start. He finished with 1,106 yards on 229 carries and 10 rushing touchdowns. Gurley also added 21 receptions for 188 yards. The good news is that Gurley's 21 career high receptions are going to be shattered this year since he already has 14 going into week seven. On top of that his yards should be shattered as well seeing as he's already 55 yards away from tying his receiving yards last year.

Now on to the real worrisome stuff. Gurley is on pace for 317 carries so the Rams seriously need to start using Benny Cunningham and Malcolm Brown more if they want Gurley to last. Gurley is also on pace to not even hit the 1,000 yard mark which this year's first-round rookie Ezekiel Elliott is actually on pace to almost hit 2,000 yards. Gurley fumbled three times last year and now he already has two so safe to say nothing is going right for Gurley. After it was explained by Rodger Saffold that the goal line play in which Gurley was stuffed was because Gurley went to the wrong side of the line Gurley has had some serious shade thrown at him by the same people that went out and bought his jersey this off-season.

I love Gurley and I think he is going to get it together so I'll reserve my judgment past just the first six games of his sophomore year. Also while it is very impressive what Elliott is doing in Dallas, it's not fair to compare him to Gurley seeing as Elliott has an incredible offensive line and the Rams offensive line has had a rough time this season. Perhaps the bye week after the Giants game will help Gurley if he doesn't find his groove this Sunday. For now I would have to say this is a pattern to monitor but, I expect Gurley to retire as an elite back when it's all said and done.

 

[OntarioRam]

It's a disturbing to see Gurley struggle but I am not at all concerned about him becoming a bust. Gurley is not in the same class as those other Rams players.

His blend of size, speed, and athleticism is a cut above. The ability to make players miss. The ability to function as a receiver. The pedigree. The dude was an undisputed top 10 pick but for health concerns for a reason.

He's in a slump right now but I fully expect Gurley to break out of it. He's been improving a bit each game. The o-line has been poor.

Unfortunately, much like the Rams team as a whole and our struggling defence and various injuries, by the time Gurley is back in top form I fear it will be too late for our season....

 

[-X-]

Good stuff, Jake. There definitely is a pattern with RBs on this team, but have you looked into RB sophomore slumps in general? Maybe Pro Football Reference has a way to categorize runningbacks in their first two years with their Season Finder or Player Finder tools (good tools if you haven't used them). I remember Bettis having a similar drop-off as a Ram back in the day too. But that might have been an internal thing, because he was totally mishandled his third year and then traded. But that's going back a ways and has nothing to do with Fisher's teams. Didn't happen to Eddie George though. And it definitely didn't happen with Chris Johnson. Is it just a strange coincidence? Could be.

Also appreciate how you've walked back the negative rhetoric. That's gonna make your stuff much easier (and more pleasurable) to read.

 

[Adi]

Not worried about Todd's future .He is way to talented to be compared to those other guys .This offensive line looks nothing like they did last year. Our running backs continue to run into "walls" because defenses adjust to us and we have not had the big time playmaker to stretch the defense. Hopefully after last week teams realize britt and quick can make plays , therefore giving gurley more room

 

[Adi]

I really hope they build a strong offense around gurley, remember Steven Jackson? He was a top 3 back almost his whole career and the team just couldn't build around him and achieve success. Steven was a monster but I also remember him getting stopped in the red zone a lot.

 

[rdlkgliders]

Nice article Jake, yes it is difficult to ignore the pattern. I too believe there is just to much size and talent to hit the panic button. Gurley's combination of speed and athleticism seem to great to fail but he is not completely risk free.
Some great athletes have lost their way after early successes and no on is completely immune. Todd is having some difficulties with the combination of vision, decision making and running with instinct. A couple good games should put that behind him I just hope they come sooner than later. If he continues to have difficulties his confidence will become an issue also and that can be a larger mountain to climb. He has improved but 50+ and 4+ yards are far from his potential or what he should be producing. I look for him to break out sooner than later.

 

[PhillyRam]

I think he is just trying to hard and thus not always trusting the play and hitting the right hole because too often there has been no hole. Need to get Goff going so he can hopefully open up the field of play more eventually.

 

[dieterbrock]

Eric Dickerson had the best Sophomore slump of all time

 

[JerseyRam1]

Insightful piece. Thanks for providing this perspective.I just think Todd is trying to do too much, resulting in overthinking and the fumbles. Also, Is it me or does Todd look a lot faster on turf?

 

[Mackeyser]

I think he's distracted.

He needs to just focus on the play and BE in the moment. He can't think about being the focus of the offense or having to carry anything other than the ball when that's what the play calls for.

When he was recovering, I think his mindset was much simpler and he was able to be more himself. RB is almost the antithesis of QB in that regard.

For someone with such a high football IQ to get plays wrong... To run to the wrong hole, to be in the wrong place... Something ELSE is going on. I actually have every faith that he'll get it worked out.

Some guys slump because they get figured out. Gurley is among the few at the position with transcendent talent, so I don't think that's it.

Doesn't mean he doesn't have some things to get straightened out. Clearly he does.

 

[Corbin]

Dude are you writing articles just to write them? I will say they are a light year ahead of a Jim Thomas or Bernie article everyone always had an infatuation to posting.

We all know why those other backs didn't do as well the following season because some one was drafted and broke out as per Fisher preference to find a feature back.

The only reason Gurley is struggling now was our o-lines piss poor performances the first 5 games and Keenum being our QB hence the stacked boxes.

 

[1maGoh]

Dude are you writing articles just to write them? I will say they are a light year ahead of a Jim Thomas or Bernie article everyone always had an infatuation to posting.

We all know why those other backs didn't do as well the following season because some one was drafted and broke out as per Fisher preference to find a feature back.

The only reason Gurley is struggling now was our o-lines pee pee poor performances the first 5 games and Keenum being our QB hence the stacked boxes.

I don't know. Those other guys wouldn't struggle in the first 4 games when they were the feature back just because we found someone else. They struggled for some reason and we had someone else who didn't struggle.

My personal opinion is that they brought in Groh and so focused on the passing game to leverage his skill set. That led to less time for the run game. I assume they thought it would be ok because they were a strong running team. Turns out everyone needs practice to be good.

I'm just shooting from the hip there though.

Richardson was always a complimentary piece, never a feature back.

I don't really remember what happened to Zac Stacy. He was short and limited athletically. It's possible he just couldn't sustain that level of play. I don't really know.

Mason. I honestly think he got nervous being ahead of Gurley. Tried too hard or got despondent and wasn't trying. Either or, same result.

Gurley is a victim of our desire to unfuck the passing game. Poor guy.

All jmho of course.

 

[…..]

Also appreciate how you've walked back the negative rhetoric. That's gonna make your stuff much easier (and more pleasurable) to read.

Co-sign

 

[LesBaker]

Good stuff, Jake. There definitely is a pattern with RBs on this team, but have you looked into RB sophomore slumps in general? Maybe Pro Football Reference has a way to categorize runningbacks in their first two years with their Season Finder or Player Finder tools (good tools if you haven't used them). I remember Bettis having a similar drop-off as a Ram back in the day too. But that might have been an internal thing, because he was totally mishandled his third year and then traded. But that's going back a ways and has nothing to do with Fisher's teams. Didn't happen to Eddie George though. And it definitely didn't happen with Chris Johnson. Is it just a strange coincidence? Could be.

Also appreciate how you've walked back the negative rhetoric. That's gonna make your stuff much easier (and more pleasurable) to read.

It's like there is no pattern then. Is that what you are saying?

 

[-X-]

It's like there is no pattern then. Is that what you are saying?

There's a pattern, but I don't think there's any causation.

 

[LACHAMP46]

Patience.....Seems to be pressing to MAKE something happen....I thought he would breakout against the Lions, then Keenum went all Kurt Warner....So, I see him breaking out this week....although this run D should be a little better...

Always enjoy your pieces....keep posting...

 

[ram007]

I did not see any articles by NFL writers on Gurelys season so far breaking down film. I would like to read that conclusively establishes if it is Gurley or the OL at fault.

Did I miss any articles? All I read is generalizations that OL is not doing good job.

 

[Merlin]

The difference is Gurley is a game changing talent. His slump reminds me a lot of Bettis' in that many fans decided he was the problem but it was the line of course, and everyone found that out the hard way as soon as he took a handoff behind Pittsburgh's offensive line.

 

[Zaphod]

First thing that came to mind for me is that all running backs seem to suffer a second year slump on many teams. And maybe that's just perception, but I would think that the trend is more related to the coordinators than anything else. It's easier to focus on one guy's patterns and plan around that at least.

If it's any consolation, I think that the focus put on Gurley by our team and those playing us has everyone adjusting sooner than later meaning that I think you'll see a balance that sees his game continue to improve as teams are forced to pick their poison. And as it does, so goes his confidence in his play, the rest of his mates and the calls of his coordinator.

As his confidence gains so does that of the offense, it's a cumulative effect, but that doesn't meant I'll predict a record breaking season from him. Just much better than what we saw from the start. To me, it just means that I hope to see our team's offense handle the tougher defenses with quite a bit more poise than we've seen in a long time. Hey, it's better than being handled by the defense time and again.

 

[JKBOGEN]

It's a disturbing to see Gurley struggle but I am not at all concerned about him becoming a bust. Gurley is not in the same class as those other Rams players.

His blend of size, speed, and athleticism is a cut above. The ability to make players miss. The ability to function as a receiver. The pedigree. The dude was an undisputed top 10 pick but for health concerns for a reason.

He's in a slump right now but I fully expect Gurley to break out of it. He's been improving a bit each game. The o-line has been poor.

Unfortunately, much like the Rams team as a whole and our struggling defence and various injuries, by the time Gurley is back in top form I fear it will be too late for our season....

Agreed, but I am hoping you are wrong haha. Hoping Gurley hits his stride this week versus the Giants. As many of you know I live in Upstate NY and I am getting tired of hearing so and so is better than Todd Gurley.