Reverse Simpson
I've been thinking about whether the Rams should try to trade up into the bottom of the 1st round in next year's draft. The way this would work is just the opposite of a trade we did in 2025.
In the 2025 draft, the Atlanta Falcons ended up with two picks in the 1st round, because they traded up from the 2nd to jump into our slot. In the trade, the Rams ended up with pick 46 (2nd round), Terrance Ferguson, a 7th rounder (242) Konata Mumpfield and a future 1st round pick that became Ty Simpson. In return, the Falcons got the pass rusher they wanted at slot 26, James Pearce Jr., and a 3rd rounder (101), which they traded up from to get Xavier Watts. It is too early to tell for sure, but there are encouraging signs for both teams in this trade, so it is possible that it will work out great for each side.
Pearce had 10.5 sacks as a rookie but got suspended for half of the 2026 season for domestic violence incident. Watts also had an excellent rookie season with 5 INTs. If it weren't for the possibility that Pearce's off-field behavior could destroy his career, the Falcons potentially got 2 very good defensive starters out of the transaction.
On our side, we potentially got our franchise QB of the future, a high-level TE receiving weapon and Mumpfield might prove to be at least a decent backup WR. By acquiring the future 1st round pick (speculative as to which slot it would be) the trade allowed the Rams to get a QB in the next draft. Jaxson Dart was the QB taken right before the slot traded to the Falcons. If the Rams had taken the next QB, it would have been Tyler Shough. Would you rather have Simpson or Dart/Shough? Personally, I'd rather have Simpson. So, even if we ignore the Ferguson part of the trade, and focus solely on the QB, I think things worked out pretty well for the Rams.
Other teams similarly have moved up pretty far to get into the bottom of the 1st round. In 2018, the Ravens didn't even have to use a 1st rounder, they got pick 32 (Lamar Jackson) and a 4th rd pick from the Eagles by trading pick 52 (2nd round), a 4th rounder (125) and their 2019 2nd round pick. The Eagles traded up from that 2nd round pick to get Dallas Goedert. The 2019 second rounder became Miles Sanders, a Pro Bowl RB for Philly. In 2020, the Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts, so even though the Ravens got an MVP QB, the Eagles still came out great in the trade.
A key reason I think a trade partner would be keen on acquiring a 2028 1st round pick from the Rams is because as I mentioned elsewhere, the 2028 draft could be stacked at QB. That pick could end up being much more valuable than the trade chart number. To illustrate, if we use the Rich Hill chart, you could package pick 15 and 28 to get all the way up to pick 3. So, even if a team thinks they could be playoff contenders in 2027, getting that extra 1st rounder is ammunition that could be used to upgrade their slot and make a move for one of the top QBs. Alternatively, if there are enough talented QBs, a team might not have to trade up at all. Just as Lamar Jackson at the very bottom of the 1st round became a top QB, a team could just hold onto the extra 1st from the Rams and even if that pick is at the very bottom of the 1st round, they might be able to flip it into a good QB. What team might be picking low in the 1st round, but still have an interest in pursuing a QB in 2028? There are many possibilities, but how about the Ravens, just to name one team. Even if they make the playoffs with Lamar, they might still be thinking about moving on from him. Lamar has a huge cap hit in 2027 and it is risky for the Ravens to pay big money for a new deal for him given his age, durability questions and play style. By going with a far cheaper option at QB, the Ravens could free up a ton of cap space that they could use on other positions.
The trade chart numbers made trading up a realistic move. Even if we discount the 2028 first rounder and make it equivalent to a middle 2nd round type value, it would be enough to go from slot 59 all the way up to pick 30. So, even if the Rams are picking near the bottom of the 2nd round, there's enough juice to squeeze into the bottom of the 1st round.
Okay, so once we've established that the Rams could find a trade partner willing to move out of the 1st round in 2027 and that the Rams have enough chips to make the trade happen, the next question is whether there is a specific player worth targeting. To make the trade worthwhile for the Rams, I feel that it can't be for a "tier 2" type prospect, it has to be a for a player the Rams have a very high grade on, but for whatever reason fell into the bottom of the 1st.
In the next part, I'll list some possibilities.
I've been thinking about whether the Rams should try to trade up into the bottom of the 1st round in next year's draft. The way this would work is just the opposite of a trade we did in 2025.
In the 2025 draft, the Atlanta Falcons ended up with two picks in the 1st round, because they traded up from the 2nd to jump into our slot. In the trade, the Rams ended up with pick 46 (2nd round), Terrance Ferguson, a 7th rounder (242) Konata Mumpfield and a future 1st round pick that became Ty Simpson. In return, the Falcons got the pass rusher they wanted at slot 26, James Pearce Jr., and a 3rd rounder (101), which they traded up from to get Xavier Watts. It is too early to tell for sure, but there are encouraging signs for both teams in this trade, so it is possible that it will work out great for each side.
Pearce had 10.5 sacks as a rookie but got suspended for half of the 2026 season for domestic violence incident. Watts also had an excellent rookie season with 5 INTs. If it weren't for the possibility that Pearce's off-field behavior could destroy his career, the Falcons potentially got 2 very good defensive starters out of the transaction.
On our side, we potentially got our franchise QB of the future, a high-level TE receiving weapon and Mumpfield might prove to be at least a decent backup WR. By acquiring the future 1st round pick (speculative as to which slot it would be) the trade allowed the Rams to get a QB in the next draft. Jaxson Dart was the QB taken right before the slot traded to the Falcons. If the Rams had taken the next QB, it would have been Tyler Shough. Would you rather have Simpson or Dart/Shough? Personally, I'd rather have Simpson. So, even if we ignore the Ferguson part of the trade, and focus solely on the QB, I think things worked out pretty well for the Rams.
Other teams similarly have moved up pretty far to get into the bottom of the 1st round. In 2018, the Ravens didn't even have to use a 1st rounder, they got pick 32 (Lamar Jackson) and a 4th rd pick from the Eagles by trading pick 52 (2nd round), a 4th rounder (125) and their 2019 2nd round pick. The Eagles traded up from that 2nd round pick to get Dallas Goedert. The 2019 second rounder became Miles Sanders, a Pro Bowl RB for Philly. In 2020, the Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts, so even though the Ravens got an MVP QB, the Eagles still came out great in the trade.
A key reason I think a trade partner would be keen on acquiring a 2028 1st round pick from the Rams is because as I mentioned elsewhere, the 2028 draft could be stacked at QB. That pick could end up being much more valuable than the trade chart number. To illustrate, if we use the Rich Hill chart, you could package pick 15 and 28 to get all the way up to pick 3. So, even if a team thinks they could be playoff contenders in 2027, getting that extra 1st rounder is ammunition that could be used to upgrade their slot and make a move for one of the top QBs. Alternatively, if there are enough talented QBs, a team might not have to trade up at all. Just as Lamar Jackson at the very bottom of the 1st round became a top QB, a team could just hold onto the extra 1st from the Rams and even if that pick is at the very bottom of the 1st round, they might be able to flip it into a good QB. What team might be picking low in the 1st round, but still have an interest in pursuing a QB in 2028? There are many possibilities, but how about the Ravens, just to name one team. Even if they make the playoffs with Lamar, they might still be thinking about moving on from him. Lamar has a huge cap hit in 2027 and it is risky for the Ravens to pay big money for a new deal for him given his age, durability questions and play style. By going with a far cheaper option at QB, the Ravens could free up a ton of cap space that they could use on other positions.
The trade chart numbers made trading up a realistic move. Even if we discount the 2028 first rounder and make it equivalent to a middle 2nd round type value, it would be enough to go from slot 59 all the way up to pick 30. So, even if the Rams are picking near the bottom of the 2nd round, there's enough juice to squeeze into the bottom of the 1st round.
Okay, so once we've established that the Rams could find a trade partner willing to move out of the 1st round in 2027 and that the Rams have enough chips to make the trade happen, the next question is whether there is a specific player worth targeting. To make the trade worthwhile for the Rams, I feel that it can't be for a "tier 2" type prospect, it has to be a for a player the Rams have a very high grade on, but for whatever reason fell into the bottom of the 1st.
In the next part, I'll list some possibilities.