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This is an early assessment from Mike Sand & Mel Kiper @
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14166804/the-top-college-prospects-qb-needy-nfl-teams
The top college prospects for QB-needy NFL teams
Memphis' Paxton Lynch and Cal's Jared Goff are both potential top-10 picks in the 2016 NFL draft. AP Photos
The Texans figure to be high on the list of teams heading into the offseason hoping to upgrade their quarterback situations in the 2016 NFL draft. What other teams should be shopping for QBs from the college ranks? Which prospects are looking like the best options? Mike Sando and Mel Kiper tackle the answers.
Teams that could draft a QB
Houston Texans: Every other AFC South team has used a top-five draft choice on a quarterback since 2012. The Texans selected Jadeveon Clowney first overall in 2014 and then passed over Derek Carr in the second round. Houston traded away Ryan Fitzpatrick and acquired Ryan Mallett this year. The Texans now have Brian Hoyer and T.J. Yates in a division featuring Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles and Marcus Mariota.
San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have until April 1 to lock in future guarantees in Colin Kaepernick's contract. That gives them ample time to assess the veteran market as well as the 2016 draft class. Will they have new coaches by then? Could the personnel department experience turnover? These questions could affect how the organization feels about Kaepernick. For now, Kaepernick watches from the bench, unsure if/when his next chance with the 49ers will come.
St. Louis Rams: The Rams' roster could be strong enough for the team to contend, provided there's a quarterback good enough to raise the team's play on offense instead of holding it back. St. Louis acquired Nick Foles and used a third-round pick on Sean Mannion last offseason, so the Rams should be set in the short term. But in order for Foles to project as the future starter, he has to project as the current starter, and St. Louis has already benched him. Foles has a 9-7 record in his past 16 starts, but he has completed only 58.2 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions over that span. His passer rating (78.2) and Total QBR score (51.5) in those games are what teams would hope to see from a backup.
Philadelphia Eagles: Sam Bradford is signed through this season. Mark Sanchezis signed through 2016. While Bradford's production has perked up over the past two games, a separated left shoulder prevented him from finishing the most recent one. Bradford ranks 30th out of 33 qualifying starters in Total QBR for the season (10th over the past two games). Philadelphia has not drafted a quarterback in the first two rounds since selecting Kevin Kolb in 2007.
Denver Broncos: The Broncos will use the upcoming weeks to figure out whether they can go into the 2016 season with Brock Osweiler as their projected starter. Kaepernick (2012) and Tony Romo (2006) made the most of similar opportunities in the second halves of seasons over the past decade. The Broncos need to be on this list until Osweiler proves otherwise. Even if Peyton Manning returns to the field this season, his return to the team in 2016 seems like the longest of long shots.
New York Jets: Ryan Fitzpatrick turns 33 this month and does not have a contract for next season. Geno Smith's future with the team is in question. The Jets could re-sign Fitzpatrick, but drafting a quarterback would still have to be a strong consideration. How Fitzpatrick plays for the remainder of the season will influence the Jets' thinking. The team ranks sixth in Total QBR this season (68.8) after ranking 30th (34.5) during the Rex Ryan era. Fitzpatrick has a 46.6 QBR score for his career, so regression would seem inevitable even though the fit with coordinator Chan Gailey is a positive one.
Washington Redskins: Kirk Cousins is playing his way into the discussion for 2016, but drafting a quarterback could still make sense. It's tough to envision a scenario in which Robert Griffin III would return under a contract that would pay him $16.2 million in salary for 2016. If Cousins plays well enough to project as the starter, the Redskins will presumably fare well enough for coach Jay Gruden to return as well.
Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel could still be the future of the position in Cleveland, but there are so many unknowns right now. Will the team have a new coach and/or general manager before the draft? Will Josh McCown wind up starting again this season? Can the team count on Manziel to keep his life on track for the long term? How all of those questions get answered in the coming months will influence how the Browns will approach the 2016 draft.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills have to like what they've seen from Tyrod Taylor, as they've posted a 5-2 record with him at quarterback. Taylor has 11 touchdowns, four interceptions and a 65.6 QBR score in his seven appearances. How he finishes this season will inform whatever decisions the Bills make at the position.
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys could always go the veteran route for a backup, but drafting a prospect to groom behind Tony Romo would also make sense. Going 0-7 without Romo this season could provide the impetus.
Other considerations: The Pittsburgh Steelers figure to let Landry Jones play out his rookie deal before addressing the position in the draft. ... The Arizona Cardinalsare a team to watch given Carson Palmer's age and Drew Stanton's pending free agency, particularly if Matt Barkley lacks the arm to maximize Bruce Arians' downfield passing game. ... New Orleans drafted Garrett Grayson this year, but if Drew Brees becomes a salary-cap casualty as part of an organizational shakeup, the Saints would have to address the position. ... The Chicago Bears were a team on the fast track to drafting a quarterback in 2016 before Jay Cutler's recent resurgence. Cutler has $10 million in salary guarantees for next season. The team could still use a young backup, but the need factor appears diminished for now.
QBs to know for the 2016 NFL draft
I can see the need, but this just isn't a class in which there is a quarterback you want to be starting NFL games in 2016 with the goal of being competitive. But let me put that in perspective. In my opinion it's extremely rare that you want a rookie QB seeing significant time. I didn't like the idea of Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota being forced to start right away, for instance. And while both have been good, at this point I don't think there's a QB in the 2016 class who I'm more excited about than either of those two.
Here are names to know.
Paxton Lynch, Memphis: He has good size, a strong arm and has progressed each year, with improved accuracy all over the field. Faces a huge jump in competition coming out of the AAC (as if the jump to the NFL isn't already massive enough).
Current projection: Top 10
Jared Goff, Cal: A known commodity, the tall, strong-armed talent has been a starter since his freshman season. Uneven play of late is a reminder this isn't a plug-and-play rookie in 2016.
Current projection: Top 10
Carson Wentz, North Dakota State: With great size (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) and an NFL arm, Wentz is an exceptional athlete and a constant threat to take extra yards with his legs. Faces a huge jump in competition coming out of the FCS.
Current projection: Late first round or early Round 2.
Connor Cook, Michigan State: Has ideal size and is a good athlete. Cook can scan the whole field and deliver with velocity even when he's off balance. His accuracy is inconsistent, however.
Current projection: Late first round or early Round 2.
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: Good size, a strong arm and the ability to zip the ball into tight windows, Hackenberg's problem is that much of his best tape comes from his freshman season. He has struggled over the past two years behind erratic O-line play.
Current projection: Late first round or early Round 2.
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: Has made significant strides this year, and makes plays both in rhythm and when the play breaks down. Doesn't have an ideal frame, but the production is there.
Current projection: Day 2.
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: Has improved a lot as a progression passer after being considered more of a run-pass dual threat. Can drive the ball when his feet are under him.
Current projection: Late Day 2 pick.
Cody Kessler, USC: Can throw to a pro-style route tree, and anticipates well. After being highly productive last season, he's been uneven in 2015 in terms of overall growth. Ceiling is a question.
Current projection: Rounds 3-4
Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky: Has great ball placement and often looks unfazed by pressure, but doesn't offer big-time arm strength. Competition level is also a concern.
Current projection: Round 4.
Trevone Boykin, TCU: A special athlete, the former wide receiver has impressive instincts for the position given the transition he has made -- and a strong arm. Anticipation and consistent accuracy are problems.
Current projection: Day 3.
Cardale Jones, Ohio State: Incredible arm strength and has some solid tape in big games, but accuracy is a major issue and he just hasn't shown the ability to read the whole field. A project.
Current projection: Day 3, potentially late.
Other names to watch: Nate Sudfeld (Indiana), Brandon Allen (Arkansas), Jacoby Brissett (North Carolina State)
Seems thorough.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/14166804/the-top-college-prospects-qb-needy-nfl-teams
The top college prospects for QB-needy NFL teams
Memphis' Paxton Lynch and Cal's Jared Goff are both potential top-10 picks in the 2016 NFL draft. AP Photos
- 415 Shares
The Texans figure to be high on the list of teams heading into the offseason hoping to upgrade their quarterback situations in the 2016 NFL draft. What other teams should be shopping for QBs from the college ranks? Which prospects are looking like the best options? Mike Sando and Mel Kiper tackle the answers.
Teams that could draft a QB
Houston Texans: Every other AFC South team has used a top-five draft choice on a quarterback since 2012. The Texans selected Jadeveon Clowney first overall in 2014 and then passed over Derek Carr in the second round. Houston traded away Ryan Fitzpatrick and acquired Ryan Mallett this year. The Texans now have Brian Hoyer and T.J. Yates in a division featuring Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles and Marcus Mariota.
San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have until April 1 to lock in future guarantees in Colin Kaepernick's contract. That gives them ample time to assess the veteran market as well as the 2016 draft class. Will they have new coaches by then? Could the personnel department experience turnover? These questions could affect how the organization feels about Kaepernick. For now, Kaepernick watches from the bench, unsure if/when his next chance with the 49ers will come.
St. Louis Rams: The Rams' roster could be strong enough for the team to contend, provided there's a quarterback good enough to raise the team's play on offense instead of holding it back. St. Louis acquired Nick Foles and used a third-round pick on Sean Mannion last offseason, so the Rams should be set in the short term. But in order for Foles to project as the future starter, he has to project as the current starter, and St. Louis has already benched him. Foles has a 9-7 record in his past 16 starts, but he has completed only 58.2 percent of his passes with 18 touchdowns and 15 interceptions over that span. His passer rating (78.2) and Total QBR score (51.5) in those games are what teams would hope to see from a backup.
Philadelphia Eagles: Sam Bradford is signed through this season. Mark Sanchezis signed through 2016. While Bradford's production has perked up over the past two games, a separated left shoulder prevented him from finishing the most recent one. Bradford ranks 30th out of 33 qualifying starters in Total QBR for the season (10th over the past two games). Philadelphia has not drafted a quarterback in the first two rounds since selecting Kevin Kolb in 2007.
Denver Broncos: The Broncos will use the upcoming weeks to figure out whether they can go into the 2016 season with Brock Osweiler as their projected starter. Kaepernick (2012) and Tony Romo (2006) made the most of similar opportunities in the second halves of seasons over the past decade. The Broncos need to be on this list until Osweiler proves otherwise. Even if Peyton Manning returns to the field this season, his return to the team in 2016 seems like the longest of long shots.
New York Jets: Ryan Fitzpatrick turns 33 this month and does not have a contract for next season. Geno Smith's future with the team is in question. The Jets could re-sign Fitzpatrick, but drafting a quarterback would still have to be a strong consideration. How Fitzpatrick plays for the remainder of the season will influence the Jets' thinking. The team ranks sixth in Total QBR this season (68.8) after ranking 30th (34.5) during the Rex Ryan era. Fitzpatrick has a 46.6 QBR score for his career, so regression would seem inevitable even though the fit with coordinator Chan Gailey is a positive one.
Washington Redskins: Kirk Cousins is playing his way into the discussion for 2016, but drafting a quarterback could still make sense. It's tough to envision a scenario in which Robert Griffin III would return under a contract that would pay him $16.2 million in salary for 2016. If Cousins plays well enough to project as the starter, the Redskins will presumably fare well enough for coach Jay Gruden to return as well.
Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel could still be the future of the position in Cleveland, but there are so many unknowns right now. Will the team have a new coach and/or general manager before the draft? Will Josh McCown wind up starting again this season? Can the team count on Manziel to keep his life on track for the long term? How all of those questions get answered in the coming months will influence how the Browns will approach the 2016 draft.
Buffalo Bills: The Bills have to like what they've seen from Tyrod Taylor, as they've posted a 5-2 record with him at quarterback. Taylor has 11 touchdowns, four interceptions and a 65.6 QBR score in his seven appearances. How he finishes this season will inform whatever decisions the Bills make at the position.
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys could always go the veteran route for a backup, but drafting a prospect to groom behind Tony Romo would also make sense. Going 0-7 without Romo this season could provide the impetus.
Other considerations: The Pittsburgh Steelers figure to let Landry Jones play out his rookie deal before addressing the position in the draft. ... The Arizona Cardinalsare a team to watch given Carson Palmer's age and Drew Stanton's pending free agency, particularly if Matt Barkley lacks the arm to maximize Bruce Arians' downfield passing game. ... New Orleans drafted Garrett Grayson this year, but if Drew Brees becomes a salary-cap casualty as part of an organizational shakeup, the Saints would have to address the position. ... The Chicago Bears were a team on the fast track to drafting a quarterback in 2016 before Jay Cutler's recent resurgence. Cutler has $10 million in salary guarantees for next season. The team could still use a young backup, but the need factor appears diminished for now.
QBs to know for the 2016 NFL draft
I can see the need, but this just isn't a class in which there is a quarterback you want to be starting NFL games in 2016 with the goal of being competitive. But let me put that in perspective. In my opinion it's extremely rare that you want a rookie QB seeing significant time. I didn't like the idea of Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota being forced to start right away, for instance. And while both have been good, at this point I don't think there's a QB in the 2016 class who I'm more excited about than either of those two.
Here are names to know.
Paxton Lynch, Memphis: He has good size, a strong arm and has progressed each year, with improved accuracy all over the field. Faces a huge jump in competition coming out of the AAC (as if the jump to the NFL isn't already massive enough).
Current projection: Top 10
Jared Goff, Cal: A known commodity, the tall, strong-armed talent has been a starter since his freshman season. Uneven play of late is a reminder this isn't a plug-and-play rookie in 2016.
Current projection: Top 10
Carson Wentz, North Dakota State: With great size (6-foot-5, 230 pounds) and an NFL arm, Wentz is an exceptional athlete and a constant threat to take extra yards with his legs. Faces a huge jump in competition coming out of the FCS.
Current projection: Late first round or early Round 2.
Connor Cook, Michigan State: Has ideal size and is a good athlete. Cook can scan the whole field and deliver with velocity even when he's off balance. His accuracy is inconsistent, however.
Current projection: Late first round or early Round 2.
Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: Good size, a strong arm and the ability to zip the ball into tight windows, Hackenberg's problem is that much of his best tape comes from his freshman season. He has struggled over the past two years behind erratic O-line play.
Current projection: Late first round or early Round 2.
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: Has made significant strides this year, and makes plays both in rhythm and when the play breaks down. Doesn't have an ideal frame, but the production is there.
Current projection: Day 2.
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: Has improved a lot as a progression passer after being considered more of a run-pass dual threat. Can drive the ball when his feet are under him.
Current projection: Late Day 2 pick.
Cody Kessler, USC: Can throw to a pro-style route tree, and anticipates well. After being highly productive last season, he's been uneven in 2015 in terms of overall growth. Ceiling is a question.
Current projection: Rounds 3-4
Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky: Has great ball placement and often looks unfazed by pressure, but doesn't offer big-time arm strength. Competition level is also a concern.
Current projection: Round 4.
Trevone Boykin, TCU: A special athlete, the former wide receiver has impressive instincts for the position given the transition he has made -- and a strong arm. Anticipation and consistent accuracy are problems.
Current projection: Day 3.
Cardale Jones, Ohio State: Incredible arm strength and has some solid tape in big games, but accuracy is a major issue and he just hasn't shown the ability to read the whole field. A project.
Current projection: Day 3, potentially late.
Other names to watch: Nate Sudfeld (Indiana), Brandon Allen (Arkansas), Jacoby Brissett (North Carolina State)
Seems thorough.
