Todd Gurley and the MVP Debate

  • To unlock all of features of Rams On Demand please take a brief moment to register. Registering is not only quick and easy, it also allows you access to additional features such as live chat, private messaging, and a host of other apps exclusive to Rams On Demand.

Prime Time

PT
Moderator
Joined
Feb 9, 2014
Messages
20,922
Name
Peter
https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/10/22/todd-gurley-mvp-los-angeles-rams-sean-mcvay-offense

Todd Gurley and the MVP Debate
By ANDY BENOIT

image


Sean McVay gets irked when people give credit for the Rams’ offensive success to his system and not his players. Jared Goff is usually the one short-changed, but Todd Gurley gets it, as well. I once admitted to McVay that I was a driver of that Gurley narrative. My argument was that Gurley is a top-flight back, but he’s less valuable than some of the other top-flight backs because if you took him off the field, the Rams’ offensive play designs would change very little.

McVay diplomatically dismissed this and said this is what needs to be considered: As a coach, when you have a weapon like Gurley—especially one who is uniquely lethal in space—you find yourself willing to overemphasize certain plays and concepts. That freedom to overemphasize is immensely valuable because it helps lead to a clear offensive identity.

So even if my theory were true that, without Gurley, McVay’s Rams would still feature their patented condensed formations, outside zone play-action and backfield screens, with Gurley those concepts can be repeated and built upon so effectively that they form the foundation of football’s most explosive offense.

And the brilliance of L.A.’s offense is that it does not rely an overly expansive scheme. The Rams play in “11” personnel (“1 back, 1 tight end” and 3 receivers) on almost every snap—95% of the time entering this week, per Sports Info Solutions—and feature a lot of the same looks. Their scheme is predicated on subtle wrinkles off those looks. Gurley is critical in almost all the wrinkles.

This season’s new wrinkle has been jet-sweep action, which the Rams employ more than any team in football by a huge margin. On Sunday, they gashed the 49ers with jet sweeps early on (the second week in a row an offense has gashed San Fran on the edges, by the way; Green Bay did it in the first half last Monday night). Gurley is critical to the jet-action game, either as a ballcarrier away from the jet action, a decoy on the jet action or, at times, the recipient of a jet-action handoff/pass, where two of his league-leading 14 touchdowns have come this season.

Still, this scheme continues to be built off the outside zone and play-action that defined it last year. Which keeps a spotlight on Gurley. To be honest, McVay’s explanations of Gurley’s value broadened my view of the 24-year-old-back (and my view of what comprises a player’s value). I’m more receptive to Gurley being in the discussion for MVP this year.

Given what we know about his impact on the Rams’ scheme, there’s really only one argument against Gurley for MVP, and it’s one McVay would probably have a tougher time dismissing: Gurley has a great supporting cast. L.A.’s offensive line has become one of the NFL’s best under venerated O-line coach Aaron Kromer.

That front five of—(from left to right) Andrew Whitworth, Rodger Saffold, John Sullivan, Austin Blythe and Rob Havenstein—zone-blocks better than any group and is acute at locating landmarks and assignments in the screen game. You also must consider the other end of L.A.’s play-action game. We always think of play-action as the run setting up the pass, but when you’re as deft at it as L.A., defenders take notice and the threat of the pass starts to set up your runs.

Jared Goff is not yet Peyton Manning, but he’s becoming very crisp in the subtle details that make for great play-action. (If we gave love to Kromer, we should acknowledge the men who help Goff develop his details: offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and QB coach Zac Taylor). L.A.’s wideouts—coached by Eric Yarber—are also the most details-oriented in football.

It’s an almost-perfectly tuned offensive machine. And so the “Gurley for MVP” debate centers around this philosophical question: Who is more valuable, a player in an imperfect machine who makes that machine productive (think Aaron Rodgers or Ezekiel Elliott), or a player like Gurley, who is fortunate in that he operates in a “perfect” machine, but is perhaps that machine’s main component?
 

Prime Time

PT
Moderator
Joined
Feb 9, 2014
Messages
20,922
Name
Peter
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #2
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/10/22/18009198/todd-gurley-los-angeles-rams-mvp-case

Todd Gurley’s NFL MVP Case Is Only Getting Stronger
The Rams’ star is the best player on the league’s last undefeated team. But can a running back really be the most valuable player in an era defined by prolific QBs?
By Robert Mays

gurley_mays_getty_ringer.0.jpg

Getty Images/Ringer illustration

In this era of the NFL, it’s nearly impossible for a running back to win MVP. The past five (and 10 of the past 11) winners have been quarterbacks, thanks largely to scheme adjustments and rule changes opening up the passing game. The chasm between the value of a QB and that of any other position is only widening. When Patrick Mahomes II throws 22 touchdown passes in seven games, it’s tough to argue against quarterback supremacy.

But Rams running back Todd Gurley is making a convincing case. He recorded three touchdowns in Sunday’s 39-10 win over the 49ers, bringing his season total to a league-high 14 rushing and receiving touchdowns, and through seven weeks he’s been one of the most dominant players in the league.

Gurley has come close to winning the award before; he was named Offensive Player of the Year in 2017 after racking up nearly 2,100 yards from scrimmage and 19 touchdowns in his first season under head coach Sean McVay. Those numbers weren’t enough to beat out Tom Brady for the league’s most coveted trophy, but Gurley had a claim as the most outstanding offensive player in the NFL—even if he wasn’t necessarily the most valuable.

That question of value is often the crux of the case against running backs, in terms of their place in the MVP conversation and the capital that should be spent on them in both the draft and free agency: They’re seen as replaceable. No matter how talented a given running back is, he’s still viewed as just another cog in the offensive machine. If a team has the right infrastructure, that cog can be switched out, and the machine will keep on chugging. And for most NFL offenses, that’s true.

The way the Jaguars use Leonard Fournette (when he’s actually on the field) doesn’t make him worth the fourth overall pick, and even Ezekiel Elliott doesn’t give the Cowboys what a top-five pick at another position probably could. James Conner has been a more-than-adequate fill-in for Le’Veon Bell in Pittsburgh; as great as Saquon Barkley has been for the Giants, they’re still 1-5 and cruising toward another top pick.

The difference with Gurley is that, unlike most backs, he’s the centerpiece of his team’s machine. The Rams’ explosiveness and their identity starts with him, and that’s why he’s more valuable than other running backs.

Gurley’s performance Sunday was a prime example of what he brings to McVay’s offense, in both overt and subtle ways. He didn’t have a massive day statistically (86 yards from scrimmage on 19 touches), but he did get into the end zone three times. Gurley’s touchdown numbers are partly the product of playing in an elite offense and spending a lot of time in the red zone, but they’re also a result of the Rams leaning on Gurley near the goal line more so than any other team looks to their back.

On the season, Gurley has 43 red zone carries, 18 more than the next-closest running back, and he’s handled 93.3 percent of the Rams’ carries inside the 10-yard line, which is one of the highest marks in the league. When McVay gets near the goal line, he lets his best offensive weapon do the work, and typically that ends with him hitting pay dirt a couple of times a game.

That’s all great for Gurley’s fantasy point totals, but he also influences McVay’s offense in less obvious ways. Rams quarterback Jared Goff dropped back 27 times against the Niners; 10 of those plays involved a play-action fake. That 37 percent play-action rate is under Goff’s mark for the entire season; he leads the league at 39.1 percent, according to Pro Football Focus. Among QBs with at least 150 dropbacks, the next-closest is Carson Wentz, at 29.8 percent.

McVay leans on play-action more than any other play-caller in the NFL, and his team’s 2018 rate has been historic. As recently as two years ago, no quarterback in the league who recorded more than 32 dropbacks finished above 28 percent. Not only are the Rams using play fakes at an unprecedented clip, they’ve also had an immense amount of success doing so.

Against the Niners, Goff completed 77.8 percent of his play-action throws for 126 of his 202 passing yards; he averaged 14 yards per attempt on those throws with a 155.8 passer rating. Goff has been excellent in his third professional season, and it sure helps when so many chunk plays are going to wide-open receivers over the middle of the field.

ezgif.com_optimize__8_.jpg


That effectiveness on play-action wouldn’t be possible without the multifaceted threat of Gurley in the backfield. The Rams offense succeeds in large part because of how unpredictable it is. For the most part, McVay’s scheme looks identical on nearly every snap. The Rams use 11 personnel on more than 95 percent of their plays (the highest rate in the league) and shotgun just 33 percentof the time (the lowest rate in the league).

They line up under center with three receivers the vast majority of the time, and, whether it’s a run or a pass, the action that follows the snap is likely going to look identical for the first few steps. McVay wants a perfect marriage between the run and the pass game, and that’s exactly what Gurley gives him. The threat of Gurley as both a runner and a receiver makes it impossible for defenses to account for what type of play is coming. Gurley isn’t a product of McVay’s system. Gurley is the system.

If Gurley continues at his current pace, he’ll finish the year with more than 2,250 yards from scrimmage and 32 touchdowns. Statistically, those numbers would be more than strong enough for him to win MVP. The challenge will be convincing voters that Gurley transcends the typical discourse about running backs.

Quarterbacks have dominated this award in recent years partially due to an argument about the name of the award itself. If the trophy goes to the most valuable player, then, based on the structure of the modern game, a quarterback has to win. With the way guys like Mahomes and Drew Brees are playing this season, that trend could very well continue.

But dismissing Gurley because of which position he plays misses the point. Gurley does for his offense what no other back in the NFL can. The Rams are steamrolling the rest of the league with a system built on his versatility. And if they can keep performing at this rate, Gurley will have a case that deserves to be heard.
 

Sleepy1711

Rams On Demand Sponsor
Rams On Demand Sponsor
Joined
Aug 27, 2013
Messages
618
Can we just give Gurley the MVP already? He should've won last year also, this year hes much better.
 

Merlin

Damn the torpedoes
Rams On Demand Sponsor
ROD Credit | 2023 TOP Member
Joined
May 8, 2014
Messages
41,397
I honestly don't care about MVP. I want the Super Bowl win, and a team who has such strong contributions from multiple players that the media can't award it to any of them.

Now Super Bowl MVP? Ok, let's see any of the Rams get that one, I'm all for that.
 

Corbin

THIS IS MY BOOOOOMSTICK!!
Rams On Demand Sponsor
2023 Sportsbook Champion
Joined
Nov 9, 2014
Messages
12,931
If you honestly think Gurley even has a remote shot at MVP over Brees or Brady you need to send me that shit your on FedEx style.
 

tempests

Hall of Fame
Joined
May 25, 2013
Messages
3,002
If you honestly think Gurley even has a remote shot at MVP over Brees or Brady you need to send me that crap your on FedEx style.

Running backs usually don't average 2 TDs a game. I see no reason why he wouldn't be a legitimate candidate.
 

Apt43Rams

UDFA
Joined
Sep 21, 2017
Messages
36
While Gurley's running ability and receiving ability certainly are amazing to go along with his gaudy TD numbers, his blocking is such an underrated aspect of his abilities. His ability to pick up blitzes and protect Goff is incredible week to week. When assessing most "valuable," this part of his game is an underrated portion of what helps make the Rams offense goes. Also, he seems like a great locker room guy.
 

Farr Be It

Hall of Fame
Joined
Aug 1, 2017
Messages
3,965
If you honestly think Gurley even has a remote shot at MVP over Brees or Brady you need to send me that crap your on FedEx style.
If he finishes with 1,600 yds, 800 yds receiving and 24+ TDs and the Rams go 14-2 or better, and Brady and Brees do no better than their current pace, I give it to Gurley. You?
 

MachS

Hall of Fame
Joined
Mar 14, 2017
Messages
3,839
I assume Mahomes is the leader now in most people's eyes even though it should be Todd. If he loses to Brady and Mahomes in back to back years when he should of had both I will be so pissed.
 

kurtfaulk

Rams On Demand Sponsor
Rams On Demand Sponsor
Joined
Sep 7, 2011
Messages
16,838
.

How can he win the mvp if journalists have flawed logic? Just read those two articles. Their views on the nfl makes me shake my head.

.
 

FarNorth

Hall of Fame
Joined
Jun 23, 2014
Messages
3,063
While Gurley's running ability and receiving ability certainly are amazing to go along with his gaudy TD numbers, his blocking is such an underrated aspect of his abilities. His ability to pick up blitzes and protect Goff is incredible week to week. When assessing most "valuable," this part of his game is an underrated portion of what helps make the Rams offense goes. Also, he seems like a great locker room guy.
Remember the play last year when he literally picked up Clay Matthews and tossed him aside?
 

Corbin

THIS IS MY BOOOOOMSTICK!!
Rams On Demand Sponsor
2023 Sportsbook Champion
Joined
Nov 9, 2014
Messages
12,931
Running backs usually don't average 2 TDs a game. I see no reason why he wouldn't be a legitimate candidate.

If he finishes with 1,600 yds, 800 yds receiving and 24+ TDs and the Rams go 14-2 or better, and Brady and Brees do no better than their current pace, I give it to Gurley. You?

I’m not arguing that TG30 shouldn’t deserve the MVP if all paces hold true but no way with the MVP voters already having their heads way up Tom Brady’s ass will the give it to TG. They are dumb asf as the articles above prove.
 

IBruce80

Tokyo Ram
Joined
Sep 25, 2017
Messages
1,074
"But can a running back really be the most valuable player in an era defined by prolific QBs?"

It reads like the jury is already out.

If the voters actually were more open-minded then maybe we wouldnt get articles like these.

Of course Gurley could win it.

There should be no doubt about it or please get the award changed to Most Valuable QB.
 

Prime Time

PT
Moderator
Joined
Feb 9, 2014
Messages
20,922
Name
Peter
  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #14
According to this meathead author, Todd Gurley is a "System" running back.

giphy.gif

-------------------------------------------------------
https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...ean-mcvay-jared-goff-running-into-6-man-boxes

Rams RB Todd Gurley is great, but he’s not deserving of MVP chatter
Gurley is a great, versatile talent, but his coach deserves the praise for putting him in great situations.
By Paul Noonan@BadgerNoonan

usa_today_11493201.0.jpg

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

I have seen a few folks making the case for Todd Gurley as a legitimate MVP candidate, and since the Packers face the Rams this week, I thought it would be a good time to address the idea. Running backs face a huge uphill value in terms of adding value, generally speaking. Because there is a lot of talent available at the position and the league prefers passing, running backs are closer to punters in terms of value than they are to even average quarterbacks.

That said, I don’t think it’s impossible for a running back to provide value, and Gurley is probably the closest back in existence to a platonic ideal at the position, at least in past seasons. Once, in 2016, a few APC contributors and I actually voted for Ty Montgomery as the team’s first half MVP.

That was, in retrospect, a bit silly, but not as silly as you might think, because much of what I saw in Montgomery’s usage that half-season, as a newly converted running back, is what does make running backs valuable.

Why Running Backs Are Bad
Running backs aren’t valuable because running isn’t inherently valuable, at least in the NFL. I think it probably could be in certain circumstances, but the NFL is a passing league, and passing is, for all current teams, more efficient than running. Running is simply there to tempt defenses into defending something aside from passing. Even the greatest running attacks are there to capitalize on defenses that lean too far towards lighter pass defenders.

The fundamental problem for running backs is that their entire existence is as a distraction. They are a game theory play in service to a much more formidable attack. They are the play within a play of a Midsummer Night’s Dream, which is extremely entertaining and one of Shakespeare’s highlights, but mostly exists in service to a much greater work.

When people used to talk about three-down backs, they meant someone who could pound out consistent gains on first and second down to set up a manageable third down, which the player also might convert. As it turns out, having a one-note power back grind out short gains on any down isn’t actually very useful, and many teams pivoted to employing a third down back.

This led to even more specialization, the advent of the power back or goal line backs, and pass blocking specialists. Specialization is not without its problems as specialized players telegraph their uses. When Chris Thompson is on the field for Washington, it is overwhelmingly likely that he will not get a carry, and while Thomspon is excellent at what he does, that telegraphed use makes him easier to defend.

Enter the new 3-down back.

Whereas a specialized back allows the defense to cheat, a truly versatile back can help punish defenses who overcommit. The big difference between old and new three-down backs is simply that the new variety are pass-catching specialists first. Even if they don’t see huge volume, the new school aren’t just dump-off targets. They split out wide, they run the route tree, they have good hands, and they easily defeat linebackers.

Todd Gurley is such a back. Under Jeff Fisher, Gurley was wasted as the old type of three-down back, crashing hopelessly into stacked boxes just as Eddie George was decades before. Fortunately Sean McVay took over, and the coaching improvement from Fisher to McVay is quite possibly the largest of all time. Now, instead of crashing into stacked boxes, the presence of a stacked box will lead to this.

View: https://gfycat.com/wanhideousbubblefish


In 2017, Gurley really was a huge threat, ranking 4th in DVOA/2nd in DYAR as a rusher, and 7th in DVOA/2nd in DYAR as a receiver. Gurley’s 12.3 yards per reception last season was on par with most outside receivers, and was bolstered by a near 74% catch rate.

Add on 19 total touchdowns, and, with his modernized usage, it’s easy to see why some might make the case for the return of the running back. Gurley is undeniably a dynamic talent at the position, and with the best coach in the league getting the most out of him, what’s not to like?

What’s not to like
Plenty, as it turns out. First of all, while Gurley is great, he’s not the even the best running back in football. Last season, the SaintsAlvin Kamara produced more total DYAR rushing and receiving, and was more efficient on a per play basis per DVOA.

Gurley’s dominance over other backs is based mostly on volume, and we should always beware of volume. While getting Gurley-level efficiency with Gurley-level volume is valuable, getting as much with fewer attempts can, in some instances, be even more valuable. Last season he was certainly a top-three back, and so this is splitting hairs a bit, but this season — a season that has seen many call for him to be in the MVP conversation — he really doesn’t belong.

Gurley’s gaudy 14 touchdowns impress typical analysts (and fantasy football players), and there’s nothing wrong with scoring touchdowns, but Gurley hasn’t been quite as good on a per-play basis. He’s 5th in rushing DVOA behind Kamara, Denver’s Phillip Lindsay (75 rushes at 5.8 yards per attempt), Kerryon Johnson, and Matt Breida.

Given that he leads the league in carries, ranking 5th is quite good, but it’s worth noting that it’s possible defenses have adjusted to Gurley the receiver. While he was undeniably great last season, this year he’s 22nd in DVOA, slightly below average.

If you think DVOA is some nerdy number made by people who never watch football and don’t understand that the secret to winning is crashing into other humans as fast as possible, please note that Gurley is down from 12.3 yards per reception to 10.8 yards per reception, and down from 73.6% of targets caught to 71.4%. While Gurley was dominant as a receiver against the Vikings, he’s only been average, or in the last two weeks, downright bad against everyone else.

Gurley may be drawing additional focus, but it’s worth noting that he runs behind an elite line:


View: https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/1055167463816601600?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1055167463816601600&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.acmepackingcompany.com%2F2018%2F10%2F25%2F18021504%2Ftodd-gurley-rams-rb-offense-mvp-nope-sean-mcvay-jared-goff-running-into-6-man-boxes


View: https://twitter.com/evansilva/status/1053627846017605633?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1053627846017605633&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.acmepackingcompany.com%2F2018%2F10%2F25%2F18021504%2Ftodd-gurley-rams-rb-offense-mvp-nope-sean-mcvay-jared-goff-running-into-6-man-boxes

And this isn’t really a knock on Gurley. His job is to help make the Rams’ passing offense great overall, and the Rams’ passing offense is great.

But let’s take a step back when we consider how big of a factor he is. Quarterback still dwarfs all other positions in inherent value, and Gurley’s brilliant use in the McVay offense, when contrasted with his asinine use under Fisher, really highlights the contributions of the coaches in question, not Gurley himself. Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp are both in the top 10 receivers per DVOA, and Goff is 3rd among QBs. Every Ram has been fantastic on offense, and while Gurley is a part of that, versatility leads to easy completions and he’s still only a small cog in a big machine.

Sean McVay
The fact is that while it’s better to have a great running back, it’s more important to use your running back effectively and put passing first. Kareem Hunt of the Chiefs is currently first in receiving DVOA, while only slightly beneath Gurley in rushing DVOA, in service of the NFL’s best passing offense.

Andy Reid is up there with McVay in terms of offensive scheme, and it’s telling that they make such good use of their running game. Gurley’s great, and I don’t want to disparage him, but the fact remains that he’s not the revolution some claim, and if his production doesn’t return to 2017 levels, MVP talk is silly. Given how great the Rams’ offense already is, MVP talk is likely silly even if it does.
 

RamFan503

Grill and Brew Master
Moderator
Joined
Jun 24, 2010
Messages
35,249
Name
Stu
Sigh. Too many fallacies in this article to bother with. One can always argue that there are other factors to a player's success. Duh. You mean great players have help? Holy horseshit Batman!

I might actually put Goff slightly ahead of Gurley this year but referring to MVP talks about Gurley as silly is.... well... silly.
 

Legatron4

Legend
Joined
Aug 10, 2013
Messages
9,493
Name
Wes
Running backs aren’t valuable because running isn’t inherently valuable, at least in the NFL. I think it probably could be in certain circumstances, but the NFL is a passing league, and passing is, for all current teams, more efficient than running. Running is simply there to tempt defenses into defending something aside from passing. Even the greatest running attacks are there to capitalize on defenses that lean too far towards lighter pass defenders.
This just too stupid to even debate. Running in the NFL is still a huge factor in the game. It’s what makes our offense so good.
 

RamFan503

Grill and Brew Master
Moderator
Joined
Jun 24, 2010
Messages
35,249
Name
Stu
but the NFL is a passing league

.
Right? Why do they even run the ball at all? They ought to just stop with the charade. McVay could go King Lear and divide the offense among his three receivers. I only say this because clearly, if you can pull a Shakespeare reference out of your ass you really know your shit.
 

Picked4td

Pro Bowler
Joined
Sep 13, 2015
Messages
1,568
personally Im a big believer that the MVP should in fact go to the Most Valuable Player, and not the player with the best stats, or the best player on the best team, or the best qb, etc. And i just cant get behind the thought process that Gurley is the most valuable player when hes on an offense as dominate as the one the Rams have. would having a worse RB effect the offenses production? yes absolutely, but they would still be very dominate. heck look at the plays when Brown is in for Gurley. Shit still gets done quite effectively. Now with all that said, thats not how the award works anyway, so hes probably got a good shot at winning it
 

Ellard80

Legend
Joined
Aug 11, 2016
Messages
6,912
If he breaks the record for TD's in a season then he certainly has a chance to win... unfortunately it might take that much.