TNF: Jaguars at Titans

[CGI_Ram]

https://athlonsports.com/nfl/thursd...ars-vs-tennessee-titans-prediction-picks-2018

Thursday Night Football: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans (6-6) and Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) will meet for the second time this season to kick off Week 14 action in the NFL on Thursday night inside Nissan Stadium. The AFC South rivals last met in Jacksonville back in Week 3. That matchup proved to be a hard-fought defensive struggle that resulted in 9-6 victory for Tennessee. It marked the third consecutive win in the rivalry for the Titans, who now lead the all-time series 28-20.

The Titans enter Week 14 with a shot of momentum after overcoming a 16-0 deficit with the help of some last-minute heroics from Marcus Mariota and the defense to secure a 26-22 win against the Jets on Sunday. The much-needed victory brought an end to a two-game losing skid, salvaging Tennessee’s dwindling playoff hopes in the process. The Titans currently reside among four AFC teams with a 6-6 record vying for the conference’s final wild-card spot, just one game behind the 7-5 Ravens. Tennessee now has an opportunity to improve its chances in the hotly-contested AFC playoff race with a clean sweep of Jacksonville on Thursday night.

Unfortunately, the 4-8 Jaguars’ chances of making it back to the postseason are slim to none at this point in the season. Nevertheless, Jacksonville continues to fight the good fight, and the Jaguars can now turn their attention to the rival Titans with a boost of confidence following Sunday’s upset of divisional foe Indianapolis. The 6-0 shutout victory over the surging Colts snapped a seven-game losing streak for the Jags. They will now make their way to Nashville in search of their first road victory since Week 1 and back-to-back wins for the first time since Week 2.

Jacksonville at Tennessee

Kickoff: Thursday, Dec. 6 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Spread: Titans -4.5

Three Things to Watch

1. Can Leonard Fournette return from suspension to spark the Jacksonville offense?

The deck was very much stacked against the Jacksonville offense heading into the Week 13 matchup against the Colts. The Jaguars fired offense coordinator Nathaniel Hackett only days prior, and newly appointed starting quarterback Cody Kessler would be taking snaps behind an offensive line down three starters. To make matters worse, Fournette was serving a one-game suspension for inciting a brawl against the Bills in Week 12. The result was a Jacksonville offense that couldn’t find the end zone even once in Sunday’s upset win. To be fair, it’s a small miracle that the Jaguars managed to move the football at all under the circumstances.

The good news is that Fournette will return on Thursday night to help bolster an otherwise anemic Jacksonville offense. Since returning from a hamstring injury in Week 10, Fournette has done most of the heavy lifting for the sputtering Jaguar offense with 358 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns in three games. He will face a Tennessee run defense that has allowed 539 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns over its last three contests. On the surface that bodes well for Fournette. However, the Jacksonville passing game doesn’t present much of a threat with Kessler under center. And running room may be hard to come by behind a makeshift offensive line against a Titans defense that has the luxury of focusing almost all its attention on stopping the talented running back. Regardless, the Jacksonville offense stands a much better chance for success with Fournette back in the lineup.

2. A formidable Tennessee defense looks to stay on track at home

The Titans' defense had been among the most stifling units in the NFL before surrendering 38 points to the Colts in Week 11 and 34 points to the Texans in Week 12. Fortunately, the Titans were able to rebound nicely in Week 13, preventing the Jets from scoring a single touchdown on offense this past Sunday. It wasn’t quite a perfect performance against a somewhat weak Jets offense, but it was a big momentum shift for a Tennessee defense that seemed to be trending in the wrong direction. Look for the rejuvenated Titans defense to shine once again at home against a Jaguars offense that struggles mightily to put points on the scoreboard.

3. Can the Jacksonville defense return to elite form again on Thursday night?

Despite the Jaguars' 4-8 record and their recent seven-game losing streak, they have been able to put together solid efforts on defense most weeks. However, Sunday’s performance against a stout Indianapolis offense was on another level altogether and far more reminiscent of the elite defense that helped carry Jacksonville to the AFC Championship Game last season. The Jaguars held the Colts to a season-low 41 rushing yards and limited Andrew Luck to a paltry 4.8 yards per pass attempt. They also sacked the red-hot Colts’ quarterback three times and picked him off once en route to the shutout. The Jags will probably have trouble maintaining that level of dominance on the road this week, but a similar effort would certainly make life miserable for Marcus Mariota and a lackluster Tennessee offense on Thursday night.

Final Analysis

When these teams met in Week 3, Leonard Fournette was on the sidelines nursing a hamstring injury and Marcus Mariota was dealing with an injury of his own that left him with little to no feeling in his throwing arm. Neither team scored a touchdown in a 9-6 defensive struggle as a result. And while you will probably see a little more offense on Thursday night with Fournette and Mariota both healthy this time around, points will once again be at a premium with defense still being the primary strength for both teams. That being said, there’s a reason why Tennessee is 4-1 inside Nissan Stadium this season. There’s also a reason why you need to go all the way back to Week 1 to find Jacksonville’s only road win of the season against a hapless Giants team.

Even with Fournette back on offense, Jacksonville is going to have a hard time putting points on the scoreboard against a Titans defense that always plays extremely well at home. Conversely, it will be a tall order for the Jacksonville defense to match last Sunday’s dominance on the road against a Tennessee team playing for playoff survival.

Prediction: Titans 20, Jaguars 16

 

[TexasRam]

my reaction to tonight’s matchup.

 

[CGI_Ram]

 

[CGI_Ram]

 

[Mikey Ram]

SNOOZEFEST ALERT !!!!!

Titties "win" this one in overtime 5-3...Scintillating football !!!

 

[fearsomefour]

This is the kind of game that will make someone check what holiday movie is on the Hallmark Channel......THE FREAKING HALLMARK CHANNEL.

 

[bubbaramfan]

Oh boy, this has all the earmarks of a real clunker. :sleepz: I'll be busy with something else.:sneak:

 

[OldSchool]

Now I fully expect this to be a very entertaining game because the first thought I had was I wonder if I can go to the dentist instead of watching it. Which means this will will end up being great because nobody expects it.

 

[Mackeyser]

This is the kind of game that will make someone check what holiday movie is on the Hallmark Channel......THE FREAKING HALLMARK CHANNEL.

My wife officially likes this post.

 

[Ram65]

View: http://www.nfl.com/videos/good-morning-football/0ap3000000996543/GMFB-crew-predict-winner-of-Jaguars-Titans-in-Week-14


Are you ready for some AFC South football? We hope so. Because that's what you're getting on Thursday night.

The seemingly annual Thursday Night clash between the Titans and Jaguars is here, and it is probably not going to be spectacular, given the recent history of what games between these two teams has looked like. But what this game could be, though, is important.

The Titans are 6-6 and hanging on the edges of the AFC playoff race. If they manage to get a badly-needed win this week, it could propel them back into the picture -- especially when you consider what their upcoming schedule looks like. The Jags are 4-8 and almost surely out of the playoffs, but this is the first of four opportunities for them to spoil the hopes of playoff wannabes down the stretch.

What should you be looking out for tonight (8:20 p.m., NFL Network)? We're glad you asked.

(Stream Thursday's Titans-Jaguars game and all of Sunday's games on fuboTV, try it for free, and stream the CBS games on CBS All Access.)


When the Titans have the ball
The Titans have perhaps the NFL's most inconsistent offense.

Just since their bye week, the Titans have scored 28 points against the Cowboys and 34 against the Patriots in back-to-back wins, followed it up with 10 points against the Colts and 17 against the Texans in back-to-back losses, and then hung 26 on the Jetsin another win last week. They've been held to 10 points or fewer three times. They have four games with zero turnovers and four games with multiple turnovers. They've had three games with less than 100 rushing yards and three games with 150 or more.

Marcus Mariota has three games with a passer rating of 119 or better and three games with a passer rating of 62 or worse. Corey Davis had two catches for 34 yards in Week 4, exploded for 9 catches for 161 yards and a touchdown in Week 4, and then combined for 8 catches for 83 yards over the next three games combined. Dion Lewis emerged as the team's lead back with an average of more than 21 touches a game and 5.4 yards per touch during Weeks 7-10, but has averaged just 11 touches per game and 3.2 yards per touch in three games since.

There is seemingly no way to tell which particular version of the Titans' offense we will see in any given game, as their performance has little carryover from one week to the next. Again, this is a team that scored 9 points against the Jags back in Week 3 and then followed it with 26 against the Eagles. They scored 34 against the Patriots and then 10 against the Colts. There is no rhyme or reason about anything with these guys.

2018 NFL Playoff Projection: Cowboys roll to NFC East title, Broncos threatening for wild-card spot
That said, they have pretty consistently had trouble moving the ball against the Jaguars defense since the start of last year ... but they've won all three games against them anyway, largely because the Jaguars' offense can't seem to move the ball against the Titans (or anyone else), either, and has consistently gifted Tennessee short fields to work with. In the first game these two teams played last year, for example, the Titans started five of their 12 drives in Jaguars territory, and those drives accounted for 24 of their 37 points. In the other two games against these Jags, the Titans totaled 24 points -- scoring one touchdown and six field goals on 24 drives.


This year's version of Jacksonville's defense is not quite as dominant as last year's, but we saw just last week how they are still capable of locking down even the best of opposing offenses. When their front four is getting pressure they are extremely tough to beat, and if you can't control the line of scrimmage in the run game you are going to end up in poor down-and-distance situations, allowing those guys to pin their ears back and come after the cornerback, which allows Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye and company to be even more aggressive in taking away passing lanes on the outside.

Tennessee's offensive line, much like the rest of the team, has been inconsistent this season, and there is no telling which version of that unit will show up. If Taylor Lewan, Jack Conklin, and company can keep the pass rush at bay, maybe Mariota can sit in the pocket and wait for one of his guys to spring open. If not, it could be a long night, full of more field goals.

When the Jaguars have the ball
Honestly, the less said about the Jaguars' offense, the better.

The Jags are almost completely dependent on Leonard Fournette to do pretty much everything, but pretty much the only thing Fournette has been any good at this season is touching the ball a lot of times. Fournette cracked the 1,000-yard rushing mark during his rookie year almost entirely due to heavy volume. He averaged 3.9 yards per carry but the Jags had little else in the way of offensive talent so they just kept giving him the ball. He's been even less efficient this year, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry.

He's only lasted a full game three times, having been injured midway through Jacksonville's Week 1 and Week 4 victories, and during the three games that he's lasted the whole way, Fournette has taken his 70 carries for just 243 yards. He's scored four touchdowns on the ground, but they've all been force-feeds close to the goal line -- two from a yard out, one from two yards out, and one from five yards out. The staunch desire the Jags have to feed him the ball as often as possible also puts them in a conservative offensive shell and leads them to prioritize not losing rather than winning; and that often results in them losing anyway, as it did against the Steelers when they ran Fournette into the center of the line a bunch of times and let Pittsburgh sneak away with a win in a game where they really never should have had a chance.


Handing the ball to Fournette, though, is still likely the best offensive option Jacksonville has. Unsurprisingly to anyone that had seen him play prior to this year, Blake Bortles was once again Blake Bortles this season. It was very obvious to anyone not named Jason Mendoza that the Jaguars were winning games in spite of Bortles' performance during their run to the AFC title game in 2017, but his offseason wrist surgery necessitated that they bring him back this year because fifth-year options are guaranteed for injury. That didn't mean the Jaguars had to come into the season with no serious competition for Bortles, though, and doing so undermined any chance they had for offensive success. During the best passing season in NFL history, Bortles actually saw his numbers take an across-the-board drop this season.

Bortles 2017 2018
Comp % 60.2% 60.4%
YPA 6.7 6.5
TD % 4.0% 3.5%
INT % 2.5% 2.7%
QB Rtg 84.7 81.9
QBR 59.2 46.8
DVOA 0.3% -15.0%
The Jags summarily benched Bortles in favor of Cody Kessler, who is so much not the answer that he was traded to the Jaguars by the Browns for a conditional seventh-round pick. Kessler has completed 72 percent of his passes while in the lineup but he is averaging a pitiful 5.7 yards per attempt and has also taken sacks even more often than Bortles, undermining the offense's ability to move the ball.

The Titans defense is vulnerable through the air, especially on the perimeter, but the Jaguars simply do not have the weapons or the quarterback to take advantage of that fact. The Donte Moncrief, Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole receiving trio is scaring exactly nobody, and even if they could get open downfield against Malcolm Butler or Adoree' Jackson or Logan Ryan, it's extremely unlikely that Kessler would be willing or able to push the ball downfield himself and find them. More likely, the Jaguars try to use Fournette to control the clock and keep the Tennessee offense on the sideline. But that effort is likely to prove futile.

Prediction: Titans 17, Jaguars 10

 

[SteezyEndo]

Going to be a game of rushing TD’s.

 

[Ram65]

Before I could post how I want to see the Jags play good defense they let the Titans go right down the field for an easy TD drive.

10 Plays
73 Yards
5:30 Off the clock

 

[Q729]

Damn thought that might have been roughing.

 

[SteezyEndo]

If JAX D keeps playing like ass it will kill me in fantasy...

 

[Ram65]

Wow that was a bad pass on the run. Mariota can't turn it over there. They were ready to at least get a FG, Jags back in it.

 

[Q729]

Well that was exciting.

 

[SteezyEndo]

Batson? Lol atleast it wasn’t Natson...

 

[Angry Ram]

This is a great game for all those clamoring for a good defensive game. I'm watching. Goal line stand by the Titans. Nice to see.

 

[Angry Ram]

Sick run!!!!!!

 

[Q729]

Holy shit, I thought we had bad tackling.