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Where will Jennings land?
I see three teams that could be in play for Jennings once the market opens on March 12:
Vikings: How do you game plan the Vikings' offense? Walk the safety down, sit in eight-man fronts versus Adrian Peterson and dare Christian Ponder to beat you. That looks good on paper, and I expect defenses to take this approach until they are threatened on the outside at the wide receiver position. Percy Harvin wants a new deal (or a trade), Jarius Wright caught just 22 passes last season, there are no guarantees Greg Childs will be back on the field after suffering bilateral patellar tears, and the team just cut veteran Michael Jenkins. Adding Jennings would immediately upgrade the Vikings' passing attack and aid in the development of Ponder -- a quarterback who needs to play with much more consistency as a pro. Bottom line here: The Vikings must explore the market at wide receiver if they want to move those safeties out of the run front and become a major player in the postseason.
Rams: With both Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson about to hit the market, the Rams could be in a situation where they have to replace a good chunk of production. It's fair to question the ceiling on those two, but they combined for 114 catches in 2012. I like the youth the Rams have at the position with still-developing talents Brian Quick (size/leverage player), Chris Givens (vertical speed) and Austin Pettis (inside breaking cuts). Build with youth around quarterback Sam Bradford. That's smart. However, a veteran wideout with experience and leadership could go a long way right now in St. Louis. Landing Jennings would be an impressive offseason addition if the team fails to bring back either Amendola or Gibson. The Rams are close, but they need the offense to take another step forward. Now's the time to make a big move in free agency.
Dolphins: It's too easy to link the possibility of Jennings to Miami because of coach Joe Philbin. I know they worked together in Green Bay, but the NFL isn't a buddy system. What makes it a match here is what Jennings gives Miami, not his familiarity with Philbin. From a football standpoint, we all know the Dolphins need to get stronger on the outside. It's time to add some prime targets for quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is still growing into the position. Veteran Brian Hartline could be back and Davone Bess can create some favorable matchups inside the numbers. There are several reports that Mike Wallace is the top option for the Dolphins in free agency. However, I still believe signing Jennings would improve the overall balance of the offense while giving Tannehill a proven guy to work with.
What is Jennings' market value?
We have to understand that the talent pool surrounding Jennings in Green Bay isn't part of the deal, and Jennings can't bring Rodgers with him. Add in his age, plus durability concerns, and I would be willing to pay an average of $6 million to $8 million per season to scoop up Jennings this offseason. You don't guarantee a bunch of years, but you have pretty good expectations about the next few years.
From my perspective, that's a smart deal for a No. 1 guy who is more of an intermediate threat in the playbook as he enters the later stages of his career. Jennings can still play and still produce. But he isn't a 25-year-old receiver in his prime who can consistently flip the field and put stress on the league's top corners in the vertical passing game.
Former NFL safety Matt Bowen is a veteran of four teams over seven seasons, and now provides analysis for a number of media outlets. Find him on Twitter here.
Where will Jennings land?
I see three teams that could be in play for Jennings once the market opens on March 12:
Vikings: How do you game plan the Vikings' offense? Walk the safety down, sit in eight-man fronts versus Adrian Peterson and dare Christian Ponder to beat you. That looks good on paper, and I expect defenses to take this approach until they are threatened on the outside at the wide receiver position. Percy Harvin wants a new deal (or a trade), Jarius Wright caught just 22 passes last season, there are no guarantees Greg Childs will be back on the field after suffering bilateral patellar tears, and the team just cut veteran Michael Jenkins. Adding Jennings would immediately upgrade the Vikings' passing attack and aid in the development of Ponder -- a quarterback who needs to play with much more consistency as a pro. Bottom line here: The Vikings must explore the market at wide receiver if they want to move those safeties out of the run front and become a major player in the postseason.
Rams: With both Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson about to hit the market, the Rams could be in a situation where they have to replace a good chunk of production. It's fair to question the ceiling on those two, but they combined for 114 catches in 2012. I like the youth the Rams have at the position with still-developing talents Brian Quick (size/leverage player), Chris Givens (vertical speed) and Austin Pettis (inside breaking cuts). Build with youth around quarterback Sam Bradford. That's smart. However, a veteran wideout with experience and leadership could go a long way right now in St. Louis. Landing Jennings would be an impressive offseason addition if the team fails to bring back either Amendola or Gibson. The Rams are close, but they need the offense to take another step forward. Now's the time to make a big move in free agency.
Dolphins: It's too easy to link the possibility of Jennings to Miami because of coach Joe Philbin. I know they worked together in Green Bay, but the NFL isn't a buddy system. What makes it a match here is what Jennings gives Miami, not his familiarity with Philbin. From a football standpoint, we all know the Dolphins need to get stronger on the outside. It's time to add some prime targets for quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is still growing into the position. Veteran Brian Hartline could be back and Davone Bess can create some favorable matchups inside the numbers. There are several reports that Mike Wallace is the top option for the Dolphins in free agency. However, I still believe signing Jennings would improve the overall balance of the offense while giving Tannehill a proven guy to work with.
What is Jennings' market value?
We have to understand that the talent pool surrounding Jennings in Green Bay isn't part of the deal, and Jennings can't bring Rodgers with him. Add in his age, plus durability concerns, and I would be willing to pay an average of $6 million to $8 million per season to scoop up Jennings this offseason. You don't guarantee a bunch of years, but you have pretty good expectations about the next few years.
From my perspective, that's a smart deal for a No. 1 guy who is more of an intermediate threat in the playbook as he enters the later stages of his career. Jennings can still play and still produce. But he isn't a 25-year-old receiver in his prime who can consistently flip the field and put stress on the league's top corners in the vertical passing game.
Former NFL safety Matt Bowen is a veteran of four teams over seven seasons, and now provides analysis for a number of media outlets. Find him on Twitter here.
