The Rams really only gave up a first next year

[Elmgrovegnome]

Did any of you hear Casserly say that the only real pick of value that the Rams gave up is next year's first?

His reasoning was the success rate of picks by round. He said firsts have a 75% success rate, second rounders have a 50% success rate and third rounders have a 25%. Success rate. So the only pick they traded of real value is next year's first. The others only have a 50/50 chance of success. That is well worth the best QB in the draft and potential future franchise QB for a decade.


I thought it was interesting be cause it was a little different take on things. From January to April we all view every pick as potential gold. Charlie seems to devalue them a bit and puts a different perspective on things.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

One other thing, I think it was during Snead and Fishers press conference, one of them alluded to filling holes in free agency next year. I am sure they look ahead to who is available a liable a year from now. Sounds like they have a long term plan.

 

[DaveFan'51]

Did any of you hear Casserly say that the only real pick of value that the Rams gave up is next year's first?

His reasoning was the success rate of picks by round. He said firsts have a 75% success rate, second rounders have a 50% success rate and third rounders have a 25%. Success rate. So the only pick they traded of real value is next year's first. The others only have a 50/50 chance of success. That is well worth the best QB in the draft and potential future franchise QB for a decade.


I thought it was interesting be cause it was a little different take on things. From January to April we all view every pick as potential gold. Charlie seems to devalue them a bit and puts a different perspective on things.

Charlie Casserly also said that he believes the Rams 1st round pick will be "GOFF, because he's more Pro ready!" Just saying.
I think it will be Wentz, but what do I know!!

 

[Psycho_X]

To add to this thought, Snead said that next years third rounder will be their compensatory pick if they get one and because of Janoris Jenkins ridiculous contract there is a good chance of that. So we will probably still have a third round pick next season.

 

[snackdaddy]

I gotta think the plan is not to use the draft to fill any holes. Plus, they feel they've already filled them with the RGIII trade and all they're doing is playing with the house's money.

 

[bluecoconuts]

Depends. Odds stay the same. So if they have two chances at 50% odds Rams have one chance at 75%. Rams could hit or miss, but have a better chance to hit. They could hit on one, both, or none, all have the same odds.

 

[WestCoastRam]

Gotta be honest, felt way better about the draft when I found out the third next year was the comp.

 

[Merlin]

All I care about is that the Rams draft the next elite QB in the NFL. If they do that, they could have given up 5 first round picks and I wouldn't give a F.

 

[Picked4td]

If I was the GM id be trading more picks from next years draft for picks this year. Ive long thought this could be the last draft needed to fill holes. After this draft any future picks would be for depth, upgrade solid starters, or replace ppl we fail to resign.

 

[Ram Man]

One way to look at draft picks is to think of them as lottery tickets. The higher the pick, the higher the probability of "hitting" by drafting someone who will be a good player. Different people will quote you different probabilities of "hitting" using various criteria for what "good player" means and using various time periods for past drafts to come up with those probabilities. Reading the articles about the probabilities are always fascinating to me. All are predicated upon the proposition that past performance will accurately predict future results. That proposition is useful but not 100% true.

I like and respect Charlie Casserly. I did not hear what he said. However, I do not agree with the proposition that that 2nd and 3rd round picks have little or no value. Based on the OP, Casserly seems to be saying second round picks have roughly a 50% success rate. Casserly's threshhold for a pick being valuable seems to be whether it has a grater than 50% probability of success. Fair enough.

 

[Ram Man]

To add to this thought, Snead said that next years third rounder will be their compensatory pick if they get one and because of Janoris Jenkins ridiculous contract there is a good chance of that. So we will probably still have a third round pick next season.

To follow up on this:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...-that-applies-to-next-years-third-round-pick/

If the Rams don't get a 3rd round compensatory pick next year, then the Rams give up their regular 3rd round pick. It may be a bit early to predict whether the Rams will get a compensatory 3rd rounder next year, but my guess is that they will. The formula is complicated but it largely based upon the FA's signed vs. the FA's that leave for each team.

What is important to know if that if the Rams sign FA's that count in the compensatory pick formula, then they will hurt their chances of being awarded that 3rd round pick.

 

[bwdenverram]

All I know is if the new QB can get us from dead last in nearly every offensive stat to middle of the pack ( or even better)
we are in the playoffs. In that scenario it's all worth it.

 

[Jorgeh0605]

Depends. Odds stay the same. So if they have two chances at 50% odds Rams have one chance at 75%. Rams could hit or miss, but have a better chance to hit. They could hit on one, both, or none, all have the same odds.

I don't think the odds are the same, and I believe two 50% picks is better than a 75%.

With a 75% option you have 75% chance of hitting on one player and 25% chance of missing.

With two 50% odds, you have the same 25% chance of missing, but the odds of hitting one player decreases to 50%, while you now have an additional 25% outcome of hitting two players .

To summarize, the latter choice is equally likely to completely miss as the first choice, but has a possibility of getting you two players.

 

[dieterbrock]

All I care about is that the Rams draft the next elite QB in the NFL. If they do that, they could have given up 5 first round picks and I wouldn't give a F.

 

[bluecoconuts]

I don't think the odds are the same, and I believe two 50% picks is better than a 75%.

With a 75% option you have 75% chance of hitting on one player and 25% chance of missing.

With two 50% odds, you have the same 25% chance of missing, but the odds of hitting one player decreases to 50%, while you now have an additional 25% outcome of hitting two players .

To summarize, the latter choice is equally likely to completely miss as the first choice, but has a possibility of getting you two players.

It's like a coin flip. The odds are still 50/50 you'll get heads.

The odds that you will get heads two in a row is less than 50/50, but each individual flip is still 50/50.

So chances are they won't hit or miss on both picks, but rather split, but each one is still a 50/50 shot.

 

[…..]

We still have 6 picks this year too. We have a chance to add some depth, and maybe get lucky and hit on late round steal. And if you count Battle, who accounts for what would have been this years 5th, we get 7 players AND get our guy behind center. Its not at all like the Ditka trade or any other type of doom scenario. Me thinks that's pretty damn cool.

 

[RaminExile]

To add to this thought, Snead said that next years third rounder will be their compensatory pick if they get one and because of Janoris Jenkins ridiculous contract there is a good chance of that. So we will probably still have a third round pick next season.

That's an excellent point. Glad to see they're thinking ahead and factoring in the importance of compensatory picks.

I'm personally fine with the trade - of course it's all dependent on wether the guy they pick makes it or not, but giving up premium picks? We've spent a lot of them in recent years. The talent is accumulating. We might need several depth picks over the next few years of course and I wouldn't like to see us give up many more 4th, 5th and 6th round picks - we should be looking now to start accumulating those.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

We still have 6 picks this year too. We have a chance to add some depth, and maybe get lucky and hit on late round steal. And if you count Battle, who accounts for what would have been this years 5th, we get 7 players AND get our guy behind center. Its not at all like the Ditka trade or any other type of doom scenario. Me thinks that's pretty damn cool.

one 1st, 2 4ths and 2 6ths. If Snead can continue his later round success in that area the Rams could get a good starter out of that group of picks. Maybe two.....on top of their future QB.