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Black Monday Preview: Coaches on way out, candidates to replace them
By Don Banks
Like clockwork, there have been seven or eight head coaching changes made in the NFL in each of the past five offseasons. And once again the league’s annual firing/hiring cycle figures to wind up somewhere in that range, give or take an opening or two.
But if there’s an overriding theme emerging to this year’s exercise in bloodletting known as Black Monday—the day after the close of the NFL’s regular season, when heads traditionally roll—it’s that 2016’s pool of potential head coaching candidates isn’t considered to be particularly deep.
So, okay, you want to fire your head coach. It's the question of who comes next that is the trickier part of the process for an NFL owner. Making sure you’ve upgraded rather than just changed a name plate on the office door is the key detail that so often gets overlooked.
According to league sources I talked to in recent days, factors that may contribute to the shallow depth of the head coaching candidate ranks include:
• The scarcity of winning teams, and thus winning coaching staffs to be raided, in 2015. Through the first 15 weeks of the season, losing or .500 teams (21) outnumber winning teams (11) almost 2-to-1. News flash: The hot offensive and defensive coordinator prospects are usually hot because their teams are having current success, and there’s not an excess of that unfolding in the league at the moment.
• The NFL is also in a cycle where many of the same teams are returning to the playoffs year after year and their coaching staffs have already been fairly well shopped in terms of head coaching candidates. Seattle, Cincinnati and Baltimore have all lost multiple coordinators to head coaching jobs in recent years, and the staffs of Green Bay, Arizona and Indianapolis have experienced a degree of talent drain as well.
• It was a perhaps unprecedented year in the league for coordinators getting fired during the season, with some of those let go being considered on-their-way-up coaches who were potential future head coaches this time last year.
Fired offensive coordinators Pep Hamilton (Colts), Joe Lombardi (Lions) and Bill Lazor (Dolphins) all had a winning sheen at one point recently And you can probably add to that list Green Bay’s associate head coach/offense Tom Clements, who just had his play-calling duties removed by head coach Mike McCarthy.
• And lastly, the college ranks aren’t seen as ripe with head coaching candidates, perhaps partly a reflection that Chip Kelly’s struggles in Philadelphia may have scared away some owners from shopping in that market. Unless Alabama’s Nick Saban opts for a return to the NFL—which doesn’t appear likely—there are few names on campus that move the needle.
Some of the bigger headlines made in this year’s hiring cycle instead could be generated by the pursuit of either a current head coach like New Orleans’ Asshole Face or Indianapolis’s Chuck Pagano if they get to the market, or former head coaches such as New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, Cincinnati offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, ex-Lions head coach Jim Schwartz, Jacksonville offensive line coach Doug Marrone, Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley, Seattle offensive line coach Tom Cable, or perhaps even a wild-card choice like ex-Denver and Washington head coach Mike Shanahan.
Culled from a variety of sources with information and insight into the league’s coaching and front office situations, here’s what we’re hearing about the potential changes to come:
Going, going, gone
Tennessee: Interim head coach Mike Mularkey replaced Ken Whisenhunt when the Titans were 1–6 in early November, and his 2–5 record in charge hasn’t been a game-changer in Nashville. Tennessee is actually one of the most attractive jobs available because of the presence of quarterback Marcus Mariota, last year’s No. 2 overall pick, and getting a head coach who can further his development is the top priority.
While I’m not hearing anything that would give credence to the Chip Kelly traded from the Eagles to the Titans speculation, crazier things have happened in the NFL and that move would signal how urgently Tennessee wants to give Mariota his best possible comfort zone and a shot at success. One name that I believe will be a definite on the Titans’ interview list is that of Schwartz, the former longtime Titans defensive assistant under Jeff Fisher, who is a known quantity within the organization and earlier this year moved with his family back to Nashville.
Schwartz did good work for the Titans, has a solid relationship with interim team president/CEO Steve Underwood, and experience as a head coach in the NFL. Though defense is his expertise, he had some success in Detroit getting good things out of quarterback Matthew Stafford, and his work as the Bills defensive coordinator in 2014 looks better all the time in light of Buffalo’s regression this season.
Said one NFL club executive of Schwartz: “He’s got to be one of the best candidates available this year. If I was interviewing candidates, he’d be somebody I’d want to talk to. He’s a little arrogant, but he’s very smart and he reminds you a little of Belichick in some ways.”
The unknown in Tennessee is if the organization will also decide to replace general manager Ruston Webster, or if he’ll be retained to participate in and perhaps lead the head coaching search? Webster’s presence would be a good sign for Schwartz’s candidacy, but a new GM would likely get to choose his own head coach and who knows which direction that might lead?
Miami: The Dolphins canned Joe Philbin after just four games and a 1–3 record this season, but interim coach Dan Campbell did not make the most of his long audition, starting strong with two quick wins before losing six of his next eight games. That means the Dolphins will be back in search of their next Don Shula, a process that has now lasted 20 years.
The assumption is that Dolphins executive vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum will steer Miami’s coaching hire in the direction of a fellow Bill Parcells protege, and that could put either Jaguars offensive line coach Doug Marrone or Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley on the Dolphins’ radar screen.
But owner Stephen Ross loves to swing for the fences and go for the big name, before settling for a second or third-tier hire, and that could mean he’s eyeing Asshole Face’s situation in New Orleans, with the hope that the 10th-yearSaints coach (another branch of the Parcells coaching tree) can fix the game of franchise quarterback Ryan Tannehill. If not Payton, Colts head coach Chuck Pagano is reportedly also a possibility for the Dolphins.
Both Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase are likely on Miami’s short list as well, for their quarterback expertise. But I can’t see McDaniels opting for South Florida and Gase may be presented with better options. The Dolphins, with nine head coaches of varying tenures since Shula retired after the 1995 season, aren’t exactly the surest of bets these days.
“When I look at the Dolphins, I just see the Cleveland Browns of the south,” said an NFL source. “They’re a mess.”
With Tannenbaum calling the shots in the front office, Miami is expected to either re-assign general manager Dennis Hickey into a strictly personnel role, or perhaps part ways with him.
Indianapolis: When a head coach starts openly musing about his job security by declaring “they can fire you, but they can’t eat you,” you know the end is in sight. That’s where Chuck Pagano has gone in recent days, and you can’t blame him after the train wreck of a season he has endured this year in Indy. And yes, we know the Colts are still alive in the AFC South race, but that’s a mere technicality that has little bearing on Pagano’s fate.
The only real question surrounding the Colts is whether general manager Ryan Grigson will be shown the door as well, with most sources I talked to believing he’ll survive thanks to his close ties to owner Jim Irsay and his family. Grigson’s worst-case scenario is if Irsay decides to make that rumored run at Alabama’s Nick Saban, because the Nick-ster presumably would demand full control of the team’s personnel decision-making and that makes Grigson all but superfluous.
Would Saban consider it? An informed source I spoke with said you could never say never, but that Saban likely wouldn’t even think about the possibility until the day after the Crimson Tide plays its final game, and that could be as late as Jan. 12. Having Andrew Luck as his quarterback might intrigue Saban, but it’s still a long shot and Saban might also require someone between him and the always involved Irsay as a buffer zone of sorts.
If the Colts land a big fish in their coaching search, the Saints’ Payton is the more realistic scenario. Payton likely isn’t going anywhere that doesn’t have a quarterback capable of keeping the team in Super Bowl contention, and Luck easily qualifies. New England’s Josh McDaniels could also be a candidate Irsay covets, because his hiring would also weaken the Colts’ No. 1 nemesis, but I don’t see the fit being a good one between McDaniels and Irsay, and sources say McDaniels will be very, very choosy about his second NFL head coaching opportunity.
Cleveland: As much as Browns owner Jimmy Haslam has been told stability is the key to building a winning organization, he can’t possibly stand completely pat after the debacle that 2015 has been in Cleveland. Head coach Mike Pettine and general manager Ray Farmer are both thought to be in their final two weeks of employment, but leave it to the Browns to try and split the baby in half and leave one of them still on the job. That would only further muddle the situation in the NFL’s worst organization.
“Haslam has to be bewildered at this point,’’ a league source said. “They’re in worse shape now than ever. He should first find a good general manager and then have that guy find a head coach. But the problem is, a lot of people are very suspect to go to work for Cleveland.’’
The Browns defense was supposed to be a strength under Pettine but instead it has been a season-long liability. Cleveland could do worse than go after one of the best defensive coordinators in the league in Carolina’s Sean McDermott. Or if the priority is to address the team’s offensive issues, Cincinnati offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has never backed away from a challenge, and might even embrace the task of saving the team’sJohnny Manziel investment.
A former head coach like Marrone, Cable or possibly Haley might be the way Haslam heads if he’s wary of Cleveland’s recent experience with first-timers like Pettine, Rob Chudzinski and Pat Shurmur. But the Browns’ job (or jobs) won’t be first on anyone’s wish list.
New York Giants: If the Giants miss the playoffs, which appears fairly likely, I’m convinced the end of the team’s 12-year Tom Coughlin coaching era will come to pass, either via his retirement or a mutual parting of the ways. Who comes next in New York? There are a lot of reasons to think Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels would check off plenty of boxes.
For starters, the Giants strike me as the one job McDaniels would really want this year. New York has a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, a stable and proven ownership situation, and the reality that general manager Jerry Reese is in place on the personnel side, with the Mara family having a strong voice in those decisions as well. Some think Reese’s job could be in jeopardy, but I don’t share that belief.
As McDaniels’s coaching mentor, Bill Belichick, has said, choosing wisely in that second NFL head coaching opportunity is the key to the rest of your career, because if you blow that decision, you won’t get a third chance. Belichick has proven that point with his long run in New England after his Cleveland failure, and I’d have to think he’d counsel McDaniels that the Giants—Belichick’s former team in his assistant days—are the perfect fit. Especially since they’re in the NFC and wouldn’t be a near-yearly competitor. As one league source put it, for McDaniels, it’s New York or bust.
I suppose Alabama’s Nick Saban might find the Giants attractive for all the same reasons McDaniels would, but the idea of Saban’s focused, driven and controlling style in the New York market makes for a curious potential marriage. That’s an awkward fit both sides might quickly come to regret. And that would only serve to underline Saban’s brief and largely failed two-year stay in Miami a decade ago.
If there is one question that begs answering with McDaniels’s candidacy in New York it’s how the Giants would feel about offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo potentially leaving in that scenario? The Maras are thought to be very high on McAdoo and intent on not losing him. McAdoo, 38, has done great work with Eli Manning and might even be considered as Coughlin’s replacement if McDaniels isn’t in the mix for some reason, although his lack of head coaching experience might work against him in that regard.
On Shaky Ground
Detroit: The Lions have already fired their team president (Tom Lewand), general manager (Martin Mayhew) and their offensive coordinator (Joe Lombardi) earlier this season, so everyone presumed that head coach Jim Caldwell is the next one to go. And he may well be facing a quick firing once this disappointing year is over in Detroit. But I’m not convinced Caldwell is a goner just yet, and the Lions’ impressive showing in their Monday night win at New Orleans may have buttressed Caldwell’s case to stay a little longer in the eyes of owner Martha Firestone Ford.
One league source told me that Ford really likes Caldwell personally and believes he’s a good man who has many of the attributes the organization seeks in a head coach. Whether that’s enough to offset the 5–9 record of underachievement by the Lions this season is not known. But Caldwell was 11–5 and in the playoffs in his first season, and might be allowed one mulligan. One in-house candidate to replace Caldwell could be Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, who is considered a future head coach in the league.
But discussing Caldwell’s status in Detroit might be putting the cart before the horse. The Lions are expected to first hire a new general manager and then have him decide on the head coach. Former Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi is advising the Lions in their GM search, and that process will likely center on front office candidates such as Houston’s Brian Gaine, Minnesota’s George Paton, Kansas City’s Chris Ballard and Jacksonville’s Chris Polian, among others.
New Orleans: The picture is plenty murky in the Big Easy, but the feeling is that Asshole Face and the Saints are probably both ready to part ways after 10 largely successful seasons. Payton likely realizes he has already done the best work he can possibly do in New Orleans, and he’s now faced with a rebuilding job that will be saddled with an aging quarterback in Drew Brees, an onerous salary cap situation, and defensive issues that have proven intractable. What better time than now to take a bow and exit?
Payton wouldn’t be out of a job for longer than five minutes, with Indianapolis, Miami and perhaps the New York Giants being interested in hiring him. San Diego could possibly get involved as well, but Payton’s salary level might scare off a Chargers team that never breaks the bank for a head coach.
It’s not completely far-fetched to think Payton could surprise us and commit to rebuilding the Saints, but the odds seem to favor a divorce. One hold-up could be if the Saints seek a significant level of compensation from a team interested in hiring Payton, in return for letting him out of his contract.
San Diego: Everything having to do with the Chargers feels like it’s in a state of flux given the potential relocation of the franchise to Los Angeles next year, but reading the tea leaves, head coach Mike McCoy seems like a long shot to make the short trip north on I-5 if the organization moves.
McCoy’s team fell apart due to injuries and ineffectiveness this season, and to say that the head coach became unpopular with Chargers fans and the media is an understatement. McCoy is entering the final season of his four-year contract with San Diego, so the team is faced with the decision to either extend him or fire him, and it’s a difficult case to make that he deserves an extension with the Chargers having lost 13 of their past 18 games under McCoy after last season’s hopeful 8–4 start.
Sunday’s home finale win against Miami might have helped McCoy’s case a little, and you can never underestimate the financial element that might be involved, meaning the team’s ownership might not want to spend big money on a new coaching staff in the midst of a relocation. Then again, as one league source said: “If they move to L.A., they’re going to want to start with a bigger-name coach. In L.A., they’re not the only game in town any more like in San Diego. They would need a bigger presence to make an impact.”
But who is that bigger name and would the Chargers be able to land him as part of their relocation to the bigger market? Like everything else with this team, the unanswered questions abound.
Worth watching...
San Francisco: The prevailing opinion seems to be that Jim Tomsula will survive and stagger into a second season with the 49ers, providing San Francisco doesn’t end the season by going down in flames in their final two games. But that Week 14 loss at Cleveland did real damage to Tomsula, so no one can be sure what team CEO Jed York and general manager Trent Baalke might decide at season’s end.
Firing Tomsula after just one season, however, would be an admission that York and Baalke got it wrong last year when they forced Jim Harbaugh out the door, and league sources tell me they can’t quite imagine York and Baalke being ready to admit that fairly obvious reality.
Buffalo: Most of those handicapping the Bills' offseason have general manager Doug Whaley being on the endangered list solo. But there’s almost always a coaching change that few saw coming, and it would not be a stunning development if Rex Ryan being one-and-done in Buffalo is this year’s surprise.
There are those who believe Bills owner Terry Pegula feels a little duped by Ryan’s bluster and big talk about the playoffs last January, and that he might just be ready to eat the four years that still remain on his coach’s contract. It doesn’t help at all that Ryan’s former team, the Jets, might make the playoffs this season, while the Bills have regressed mightily on some fronts after last season’s 9–7 mark under Doug Marrone. The defense has been a calamity at times, and that was supposed to be what Ryan knew best and could deliver on.
Whaley does indeed look to be in trouble, but as one league source noted about Buffalo’s turbulent 2015 season, Ryan was either “going to be in the playoffs this year or in somebody's TV studio next year.”
What else we’re hearing as Black Monday looms...
St. Louis: As mediocre as his record has been for the Rams, sources in St. Louis said two weeks ago that Jeff Fisher was not in any jeopardy of being canned unless his team fell on its face in the final four games of the season and “lost all of them 40–0.” That didn’t happen, as the Rams have won their past three games and actually fielded a legitimate NFL offense in Thursday night’s victory over visiting Tampa Bay. So Fisher isn’t going anywhere.
Houston: There were reports and rumors earlier this season that tension existed between head coach Bill O’Brien and general manager Rick Smith, a notion that was dutifully shot down by all concerned in the Texans organization. But there’s probably some fire with this smoke, because two different league sources told me that O’Brien and Smith aren’t the biggest fans of one another, and that it would not be surprising to see Smith promoted to a team president role or something similar this offseason. Presumably that would mean an increased say in personnel say for O’Brien.
Atlanta: My sense is that embattled Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff will return in his same job next year, thanks in part to first-season head coach Dan Quinn coming out with a strong statement of support for him. But not everybody I talked to for this Black Monday preview shared that optimism, with one source saying “it’ll be a miracle” if Dimitroff survives Atlanta’s second-half unraveling after the team’s 5–0 start. Miracles do happen, even in the NFL, and I think Dimitroff is safe.
• There’s still some time for things to change, but my top five candidates who aren’t currently head coaches, but will get hired this offseason are, in some order: Josh McDaniels, Sean McDermott, Adam Gase, Hue Jackson and Jim Schwartz.
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/12/30/nfl-head-coach-candidates-list-black-monday
The Hiring List
Several NFL coaches will be fired after Week 17, and the search for their replacements will begin immediately. From Hue Jackson and Teryl Austin to Matt Patricia and Sean McDermott, here are 10 candidates ready to go
by Robert Klemko
Michael Hickey/Getty Images
Hue Jackson, who coached the Raiders in 2011, will be a hot commodity this offseason after coordinating the Bengals’ potent offense.
Last summer, The MMQB polled 24 sources including current and former NFL front-office leaders, agents, coaches and three plugged-in reporters in the aim of identifying the Top 32 head-coaching candidates in the NFL.
You can read that exhaustive list here. This time around, we used information gleaned from 20 sources to nail down a Top 10 in advance of Black Monday, when as many as eight NFL teams are expected to move on from current coaches.
The below list is an informative, but flawed exercise; it’s quite possible that our No. 10 coach—Seattle’s Tom Cable—might be a better fit for Team A than the No. 1 coach on our list, Cincinnati’s Hue Jackson. And we’re certain there will be strong consideration for coaches not on our list—including Chip Kelly (fired during our information-collecting process), and other current head coaches who get the ax.
* * *
We’ll get to the Top 10, but first a note about our No. 2 candidate, Carolina’s Sean McDermott.
He’s a near lock to be offered multiple jobs this winter—several sources believed he should’ve occupied the No. 1 spot on our list, ahead of Jackson. He’s a fast-riser at 41 years old, 18 years removed from a stellar college career as a safety alongside future All-Pro safety Darren Sharper at William and Mary. Jimmye Laycock, who also coached Mike Tomlin at William and Mary, says of McDermott: “He was one of those guys you could just tell was going to be a great coach.”
But here’s what makes McDermott truly unique: Among current head coaches, if hired, McDermott would be the only one who entered the league through the scouting department. After working as a graduate assistant at William and Mary for a season, McDermott landed a job in Philadelphia (where he would eventually supplant Jim Johnson as defensive coordinator) as a scouting administrative coordinator.
Photo: Chuck Burton/AP
Teams with head-coaching vacancies can interview Sean McDermott during the Panthers' playoff bye week.
“It was so valuable, just learning what Jim and Andy (Reid) looked for in players,” McDermott said this week by phone. “I didn’t know it at the time but I know it now—not everybody is fortunate to have those type of mentors at an early age.”
Twelve years later, McDermott’s eye on the scouting process may have landed Carolina a perennial Top 5 cornerback in the NFL. Josh Norman, NFL combine snub out of Coastal Carolina, made a name for himself with a spirited, borderline desperate East-West Shrine Game week in 2012.
“He was obnoxious, and flamboyant, and doing too much on the practice field,” one personnel man told The MMQB. “Honestly, it turned a lot of people off to him.”
But McDermott was poring through defensive back practice tape and noticed Norman do something odd in a one-on-one. After an incomplete pass fell short, Norman reached out and effortlessly snagged the wobbling grounder with one hand. Four months later, the Panthers took him in the fifth round, ahead of All-American Alabama cornerback DeQuan Menzie (who is now out of the league). Four seasons later, and Norman is one of the top-rated corners in the NFL.
“At that point in the draft you’re looking for redeemable qualities,” McDermott says, “and we felt he just hadn’t been exposed to some of the things players at higher levels had, but he was capable. Just from the way he played that ball, you could tell he had ball skills. We liked the length and the way he carried himself. Credit to the coaches and to Josh for where he is now as a player.”
Some of that credit should go to the system McDermott has installed, a zone-based scheme with selective blitzing which has produced, since his hiring in 2011, the 28th, 10th, 2nd, 10th and 4th-ranked defenses in terms of yards allowed.
But if McDermott’s going to thrive in the NFL, he’ll need a quarterback, and there’s a likelihood he’ll have the opportunity to draft one at a new landing spot. So what does the top defensive coordinator on our list look for in a QB after spending five seasons watching Cam Newton?
“The thing with Cam is, he’s kind of the modern athlete in a lot of ways,” McDermott says. “Being able to adapt coaching styles and relationships to the modern athlete is important.
“The thing that stands up the most about Cam, and what I see on tape with Jameis Winston, the guy we’re playing this weekend, is winning. Everywhere they’ve been they’ve won, and they’re highly competitive. Guys who love to compete—it stands out. Yes, they may not be a finished product, but when the lights come on they’re at their best. They’re prime time players.”
* * *
Photo: AP File
Top Row, left to right: Teryl Austin, Doug Marrone, Mike Shula; Middle Row: Hue Jackson, Adam Gase, Jim Schwartz; Bottom Row: Josh McDaniels, Tom Cable, Matt Patricia.
One last reminder: This is an unscientific study of something that cannot be studied in a scientific way. As one evaluator said, “Lots of different lists around the league. We have owners and GMs who wouldn’t realize Vince Lombardi would be good if he was sitting in front of them!”
1. Hue Jackson, Bengals Offensive Coordinator
Age: 50
College: Pacific
Pro experience: 15 seasons, one as head coach (Oakland 2011)
Head coaching record: 8-8
This summer we called him a “wild card,” and a guy who has “built a marketing machine around his candidacy.” Jackson called me on that last part (he reads everything). Five months later, and the Bengals have the fourth-best scoring offense in the NFL, led by vastly improved quarterback Andy Dalton. To boot, the Bengals split two games after Dalton got hurt. “You know why [Jackson will] be the top candidate?” one source told us. “Look at what he just did with A.J. ----ing McCarron.”
2. Sean McDermott, Panthers Defensive Coordinator
Age: 41
College: William and Mary
Pro experience: 17 seasons, seven as coordinator (Philadelphia 2009-10, Carolina 2011-present)
The emergence of Josh Norman and Kawann Short just adds to the list of defensive stars developed under McDermott, who took Carolina from last in the league in DVOA (Football Outsiders’ measure of efficiency over the course of a season) to a consistent Top 5 defense. The big mystery with McDermott is how he would manage an offense, making his choice of offensive coordinator a critical piece of the hiring process.
3. Josh McDaniels, Patriots Offensive Coordinator
Age: 39
College: John Carroll
Pro experience: 15 seasons, two as head coach (Denver 2009-10)
Head coaching record: 11-17 (0-0 playoffs)
The offensive guru with a disastrous stint as head coach in Denver received a number of No. 1 votes from our source pool. Problem is, there’s doubt about Belichick underlings in much the same way organizations now doubt Alabama draft prospects who achieved success under Nick Saban. But McDaniels’ supporters are staunch. “He’s been thoughtful and truly reflective of the mistakes he made,” said one evaluator. “I think that will come through in his interview.”
4. Doug Marrone, Jaguars Assistant Head Coach
Age: 51
College: Syracuse
Pro experience: 10 seasons, two as head coach (Buffalo 2013-2014)
Head coaching record: 15-17
This may seem like a head-scratcher but there exists a considerable consensus Marrone will be among those candidates interviewed by nearly every club. The former Syracuse lineman and head coach turned the Bills around from 6-10 to 9-7, then departed on his own terms. Now Jacksonville’s offensive line coach, Marrone has his detractors and his supporters. Said one source: “He’s disciplined, and a tremendous leader.” Said another: “They don’t even like him in Jacksonville all that much.”
5. Adam Gase, Bears Offensive Coordinator
Age: 37
College: Michigan State
Pro experience: 13 years, three as a coordinator (Denver 2013-14, Chicago 2015)
Gase is probably thanking his lucky stars he turned down the 49ers job this offseason. He spent a year with Jay Cutler and helped drop his interception count from 18 in 2014 to eight in 2015 (so far). Gase can interview “inexperienced” in the eyes of some, and it was Chicago’s defense which anchored midseason success. Only two coaches in recent history have been hired off a losing season—Marty Mornhinweg and Mike McCarthy.
6. Teryl Austin, Lions Defensive Coordinator
Age: 50
College: Pittsburgh
Pro experience: 12 seasons, two as coordinator (Detroit 2014-present)
Really impressed in interviews last offseason but was determined by many to be a year away. Was this a good enough year? Detroit is 6-9 with the 17th-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed, but the Lions have won five of their past seven, and Austin has been working with a defense that lost three of its best players in Ndamukong Suh (free agency), Nick Fairley (free agency) and DeAndre Levy (injury). Multiple sources described Austin as a “natural leader.”
7. Matt Patricia, Patriots Defensive Coordinator
Age: 41
College: Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Pro experience: 12 seasons, four as coordinator (New England 2012-present)
Coordinates the seventh-ranked defense in the NFL with the second-highest turnover rate. There was some concern that inexperienced young corners Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler could struggle in 2015. Instead, they’re two of the top-rated cover corners in football. Patricia is described as “freaky smart” by one evaluator, though many are wary of the Belichick tag.
8. Jim Schwartz, Unemployed
Age: 49
College: Georgetown
Pro experience: 22 years, five as head coach (Detroit 2009-13)
Head coaching record: 29-52 (0-1 playoffs)
The rise of Schwartz in the eyes of evaluators has a lot to do with his success last season in Buffalo (fourth in points allowed and yards) in contrast with Buffalo’s regression on defense under supposed defensive guru Rex Ryan in 2015. “A lot of guys don’t feel they need to reinvent himself and he did,” said one evaluator. Schwartz will be two years removed from his ouster as Detroit’s head coach, where his offenses were inconsistently prolific and prolifically inconsistent.
9. Mike Shula, Panthers Offensive Coordinator
Age: 50
College: Alabama
Pro experience: 23 years, three as coordinator (Carolina 2013-present)
Alabama’s former head coach has looked like a genius this season at the helm of an offense with a dearth of talent at wide receiver and a middling offensive line. As Carolina’s coach in 2011, the year Cam Newton went No. 1 overall, Shula helped incorporate Auburn’s offense into Carolina’s scheme, easing Newton’s transition and setting the stage for what looks like an MVP season in 2015.
10. Tom Cable, Seahawks Offensive Line Coach
Age: 51
College: Idaho
Pro experience: 10 seasons, three as head coach (Oakland, 2008-10)
Head coaching record: 17-27
Vaults up our list after coaching the lowest-paid offensive line in football through a turbulent season which saw Seattle lose running back Marshawn Lynch and remain in the top five in rushing offense. The Raiders went 8-8 in Cable’s second full season as head coach, but Hue Jackson replaced him in 2011. Downgraded by most evaluators in light of a 2009 incident in which he reportedly broke an assistant’s jaw with a punch. Said one evaluator: “That’s not something you can easily shake.”
Missed the Cut
Todd Haley, Steelers Offensive Coordinator; Vic Fangio, Bears Defensive Coordinator; Mike Shanahan, Unemployed; Paul Guenther, Bengals Defensive Coordinator; Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator
A few notes about the list:
• It does not include some of the college coaches who have been in the discussion in years past (David Shaw, Jim Mora, Nick Saban, Kevin Sumlin, etc.) but we’re not ruling out the possibility that one of them could be lured into the NFL. If we were to include college coaches, Shaw would be the only man in our Top 10, and he would rank high. Said one decision maker: “He checks all the boxes. Pro-style offense. Pedigree. Minority.”
But Shaw told The MMQB’s Peter King at the Heisman ceremony in early December, “I know a lot of guys in the NFL. I know guys at almost every franchise in the NFL, and I can tell you, even the ones who are winning, nobody is having as much fun at his job as I am having at my job.” Said another personnel man with ties to Shaw: “You’re not getting that guy to leave Palo Alto.”
• We also did not include two coaches, who, if fired, are likely to get job consideration around the league—Asshole Face and Chuck Pagano. Ditto for Chip Kelly. But it should be noted that guys like Kelly are no lock to get a job; only two out of the past 14 coaching hires (2014 and 2015) were head coaches elsewhere the prior year. But the main reason we didn’t include them is this: We don’t know who’ll be fired, and Kelly lost his job midway through our polling.
• Six of our Top 10 coaches come from an offensive background and four from a defensive background. Two of our Top 10 are African American (Jackson and Austin), an important qualifier in a league under pressure to add to the ranks of minority coaches.
• In the summer, our Top 10 (excluding college coaches) looked like this.
1. Adam Gase, Bears Offensive Coordinator
2. Josh McDaniels, Patriots Offensive Coordinator
3. Teryl Austin, Lions Defensive Coordinator
4. Pep Hamilton, Colts Offensive Coordinator
5. Frank Reich, Chargers Offensive Coordinator
6. Doug Marrone, Jaguars Offensive Line Coach
7. Sean McDermott, Panthers Defensive Coordinator
8. Pat Shurmur, Eagles Offensive Coordinator
9. Hue Jackson, Bengals Offensive Coordinator
10. Greg Roman, Bills Offensive Coordinator
Hamilton was fired midseason, and Reich, Shurmur and Roman led offenses that oscillated from mediocre to bad. All four of them will probably get a shot at head-coaching jobs at some point; poor performances are rarely if ever the lone fault of the coordinator.
Black Monday Preview: Coaches on way out, candidates to replace them
By Don Banks
Like clockwork, there have been seven or eight head coaching changes made in the NFL in each of the past five offseasons. And once again the league’s annual firing/hiring cycle figures to wind up somewhere in that range, give or take an opening or two.
But if there’s an overriding theme emerging to this year’s exercise in bloodletting known as Black Monday—the day after the close of the NFL’s regular season, when heads traditionally roll—it’s that 2016’s pool of potential head coaching candidates isn’t considered to be particularly deep.
So, okay, you want to fire your head coach. It's the question of who comes next that is the trickier part of the process for an NFL owner. Making sure you’ve upgraded rather than just changed a name plate on the office door is the key detail that so often gets overlooked.
According to league sources I talked to in recent days, factors that may contribute to the shallow depth of the head coaching candidate ranks include:
• The scarcity of winning teams, and thus winning coaching staffs to be raided, in 2015. Through the first 15 weeks of the season, losing or .500 teams (21) outnumber winning teams (11) almost 2-to-1. News flash: The hot offensive and defensive coordinator prospects are usually hot because their teams are having current success, and there’s not an excess of that unfolding in the league at the moment.
• The NFL is also in a cycle where many of the same teams are returning to the playoffs year after year and their coaching staffs have already been fairly well shopped in terms of head coaching candidates. Seattle, Cincinnati and Baltimore have all lost multiple coordinators to head coaching jobs in recent years, and the staffs of Green Bay, Arizona and Indianapolis have experienced a degree of talent drain as well.
• It was a perhaps unprecedented year in the league for coordinators getting fired during the season, with some of those let go being considered on-their-way-up coaches who were potential future head coaches this time last year.
Fired offensive coordinators Pep Hamilton (Colts), Joe Lombardi (Lions) and Bill Lazor (Dolphins) all had a winning sheen at one point recently And you can probably add to that list Green Bay’s associate head coach/offense Tom Clements, who just had his play-calling duties removed by head coach Mike McCarthy.
• And lastly, the college ranks aren’t seen as ripe with head coaching candidates, perhaps partly a reflection that Chip Kelly’s struggles in Philadelphia may have scared away some owners from shopping in that market. Unless Alabama’s Nick Saban opts for a return to the NFL—which doesn’t appear likely—there are few names on campus that move the needle.
Some of the bigger headlines made in this year’s hiring cycle instead could be generated by the pursuit of either a current head coach like New Orleans’ Asshole Face or Indianapolis’s Chuck Pagano if they get to the market, or former head coaches such as New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, Cincinnati offensive coordinator Hue Jackson, ex-Lions head coach Jim Schwartz, Jacksonville offensive line coach Doug Marrone, Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley, Seattle offensive line coach Tom Cable, or perhaps even a wild-card choice like ex-Denver and Washington head coach Mike Shanahan.
Culled from a variety of sources with information and insight into the league’s coaching and front office situations, here’s what we’re hearing about the potential changes to come:
Going, going, gone
Tennessee: Interim head coach Mike Mularkey replaced Ken Whisenhunt when the Titans were 1–6 in early November, and his 2–5 record in charge hasn’t been a game-changer in Nashville. Tennessee is actually one of the most attractive jobs available because of the presence of quarterback Marcus Mariota, last year’s No. 2 overall pick, and getting a head coach who can further his development is the top priority.
While I’m not hearing anything that would give credence to the Chip Kelly traded from the Eagles to the Titans speculation, crazier things have happened in the NFL and that move would signal how urgently Tennessee wants to give Mariota his best possible comfort zone and a shot at success. One name that I believe will be a definite on the Titans’ interview list is that of Schwartz, the former longtime Titans defensive assistant under Jeff Fisher, who is a known quantity within the organization and earlier this year moved with his family back to Nashville.
Schwartz did good work for the Titans, has a solid relationship with interim team president/CEO Steve Underwood, and experience as a head coach in the NFL. Though defense is his expertise, he had some success in Detroit getting good things out of quarterback Matthew Stafford, and his work as the Bills defensive coordinator in 2014 looks better all the time in light of Buffalo’s regression this season.
Said one NFL club executive of Schwartz: “He’s got to be one of the best candidates available this year. If I was interviewing candidates, he’d be somebody I’d want to talk to. He’s a little arrogant, but he’s very smart and he reminds you a little of Belichick in some ways.”
The unknown in Tennessee is if the organization will also decide to replace general manager Ruston Webster, or if he’ll be retained to participate in and perhaps lead the head coaching search? Webster’s presence would be a good sign for Schwartz’s candidacy, but a new GM would likely get to choose his own head coach and who knows which direction that might lead?
Miami: The Dolphins canned Joe Philbin after just four games and a 1–3 record this season, but interim coach Dan Campbell did not make the most of his long audition, starting strong with two quick wins before losing six of his next eight games. That means the Dolphins will be back in search of their next Don Shula, a process that has now lasted 20 years.
The assumption is that Dolphins executive vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum will steer Miami’s coaching hire in the direction of a fellow Bill Parcells protege, and that could put either Jaguars offensive line coach Doug Marrone or Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley on the Dolphins’ radar screen.
But owner Stephen Ross loves to swing for the fences and go for the big name, before settling for a second or third-tier hire, and that could mean he’s eyeing Asshole Face’s situation in New Orleans, with the hope that the 10th-yearSaints coach (another branch of the Parcells coaching tree) can fix the game of franchise quarterback Ryan Tannehill. If not Payton, Colts head coach Chuck Pagano is reportedly also a possibility for the Dolphins.
Both Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and Bears offensive coordinator Adam Gase are likely on Miami’s short list as well, for their quarterback expertise. But I can’t see McDaniels opting for South Florida and Gase may be presented with better options. The Dolphins, with nine head coaches of varying tenures since Shula retired after the 1995 season, aren’t exactly the surest of bets these days.
“When I look at the Dolphins, I just see the Cleveland Browns of the south,” said an NFL source. “They’re a mess.”
With Tannenbaum calling the shots in the front office, Miami is expected to either re-assign general manager Dennis Hickey into a strictly personnel role, or perhaps part ways with him.
Indianapolis: When a head coach starts openly musing about his job security by declaring “they can fire you, but they can’t eat you,” you know the end is in sight. That’s where Chuck Pagano has gone in recent days, and you can’t blame him after the train wreck of a season he has endured this year in Indy. And yes, we know the Colts are still alive in the AFC South race, but that’s a mere technicality that has little bearing on Pagano’s fate.
The only real question surrounding the Colts is whether general manager Ryan Grigson will be shown the door as well, with most sources I talked to believing he’ll survive thanks to his close ties to owner Jim Irsay and his family. Grigson’s worst-case scenario is if Irsay decides to make that rumored run at Alabama’s Nick Saban, because the Nick-ster presumably would demand full control of the team’s personnel decision-making and that makes Grigson all but superfluous.
Would Saban consider it? An informed source I spoke with said you could never say never, but that Saban likely wouldn’t even think about the possibility until the day after the Crimson Tide plays its final game, and that could be as late as Jan. 12. Having Andrew Luck as his quarterback might intrigue Saban, but it’s still a long shot and Saban might also require someone between him and the always involved Irsay as a buffer zone of sorts.
If the Colts land a big fish in their coaching search, the Saints’ Payton is the more realistic scenario. Payton likely isn’t going anywhere that doesn’t have a quarterback capable of keeping the team in Super Bowl contention, and Luck easily qualifies. New England’s Josh McDaniels could also be a candidate Irsay covets, because his hiring would also weaken the Colts’ No. 1 nemesis, but I don’t see the fit being a good one between McDaniels and Irsay, and sources say McDaniels will be very, very choosy about his second NFL head coaching opportunity.
Cleveland: As much as Browns owner Jimmy Haslam has been told stability is the key to building a winning organization, he can’t possibly stand completely pat after the debacle that 2015 has been in Cleveland. Head coach Mike Pettine and general manager Ray Farmer are both thought to be in their final two weeks of employment, but leave it to the Browns to try and split the baby in half and leave one of them still on the job. That would only further muddle the situation in the NFL’s worst organization.
“Haslam has to be bewildered at this point,’’ a league source said. “They’re in worse shape now than ever. He should first find a good general manager and then have that guy find a head coach. But the problem is, a lot of people are very suspect to go to work for Cleveland.’’
The Browns defense was supposed to be a strength under Pettine but instead it has been a season-long liability. Cleveland could do worse than go after one of the best defensive coordinators in the league in Carolina’s Sean McDermott. Or if the priority is to address the team’s offensive issues, Cincinnati offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has never backed away from a challenge, and might even embrace the task of saving the team’sJohnny Manziel investment.
A former head coach like Marrone, Cable or possibly Haley might be the way Haslam heads if he’s wary of Cleveland’s recent experience with first-timers like Pettine, Rob Chudzinski and Pat Shurmur. But the Browns’ job (or jobs) won’t be first on anyone’s wish list.
New York Giants: If the Giants miss the playoffs, which appears fairly likely, I’m convinced the end of the team’s 12-year Tom Coughlin coaching era will come to pass, either via his retirement or a mutual parting of the ways. Who comes next in New York? There are a lot of reasons to think Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels would check off plenty of boxes.
For starters, the Giants strike me as the one job McDaniels would really want this year. New York has a Super Bowl-winning quarterback, a stable and proven ownership situation, and the reality that general manager Jerry Reese is in place on the personnel side, with the Mara family having a strong voice in those decisions as well. Some think Reese’s job could be in jeopardy, but I don’t share that belief.
As McDaniels’s coaching mentor, Bill Belichick, has said, choosing wisely in that second NFL head coaching opportunity is the key to the rest of your career, because if you blow that decision, you won’t get a third chance. Belichick has proven that point with his long run in New England after his Cleveland failure, and I’d have to think he’d counsel McDaniels that the Giants—Belichick’s former team in his assistant days—are the perfect fit. Especially since they’re in the NFC and wouldn’t be a near-yearly competitor. As one league source put it, for McDaniels, it’s New York or bust.
I suppose Alabama’s Nick Saban might find the Giants attractive for all the same reasons McDaniels would, but the idea of Saban’s focused, driven and controlling style in the New York market makes for a curious potential marriage. That’s an awkward fit both sides might quickly come to regret. And that would only serve to underline Saban’s brief and largely failed two-year stay in Miami a decade ago.
If there is one question that begs answering with McDaniels’s candidacy in New York it’s how the Giants would feel about offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo potentially leaving in that scenario? The Maras are thought to be very high on McAdoo and intent on not losing him. McAdoo, 38, has done great work with Eli Manning and might even be considered as Coughlin’s replacement if McDaniels isn’t in the mix for some reason, although his lack of head coaching experience might work against him in that regard.
On Shaky Ground
Detroit: The Lions have already fired their team president (Tom Lewand), general manager (Martin Mayhew) and their offensive coordinator (Joe Lombardi) earlier this season, so everyone presumed that head coach Jim Caldwell is the next one to go. And he may well be facing a quick firing once this disappointing year is over in Detroit. But I’m not convinced Caldwell is a goner just yet, and the Lions’ impressive showing in their Monday night win at New Orleans may have buttressed Caldwell’s case to stay a little longer in the eyes of owner Martha Firestone Ford.
One league source told me that Ford really likes Caldwell personally and believes he’s a good man who has many of the attributes the organization seeks in a head coach. Whether that’s enough to offset the 5–9 record of underachievement by the Lions this season is not known. But Caldwell was 11–5 and in the playoffs in his first season, and might be allowed one mulligan. One in-house candidate to replace Caldwell could be Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, who is considered a future head coach in the league.
But discussing Caldwell’s status in Detroit might be putting the cart before the horse. The Lions are expected to first hire a new general manager and then have him decide on the head coach. Former Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi is advising the Lions in their GM search, and that process will likely center on front office candidates such as Houston’s Brian Gaine, Minnesota’s George Paton, Kansas City’s Chris Ballard and Jacksonville’s Chris Polian, among others.
New Orleans: The picture is plenty murky in the Big Easy, but the feeling is that Asshole Face and the Saints are probably both ready to part ways after 10 largely successful seasons. Payton likely realizes he has already done the best work he can possibly do in New Orleans, and he’s now faced with a rebuilding job that will be saddled with an aging quarterback in Drew Brees, an onerous salary cap situation, and defensive issues that have proven intractable. What better time than now to take a bow and exit?
Payton wouldn’t be out of a job for longer than five minutes, with Indianapolis, Miami and perhaps the New York Giants being interested in hiring him. San Diego could possibly get involved as well, but Payton’s salary level might scare off a Chargers team that never breaks the bank for a head coach.
It’s not completely far-fetched to think Payton could surprise us and commit to rebuilding the Saints, but the odds seem to favor a divorce. One hold-up could be if the Saints seek a significant level of compensation from a team interested in hiring Payton, in return for letting him out of his contract.
San Diego: Everything having to do with the Chargers feels like it’s in a state of flux given the potential relocation of the franchise to Los Angeles next year, but reading the tea leaves, head coach Mike McCoy seems like a long shot to make the short trip north on I-5 if the organization moves.
McCoy’s team fell apart due to injuries and ineffectiveness this season, and to say that the head coach became unpopular with Chargers fans and the media is an understatement. McCoy is entering the final season of his four-year contract with San Diego, so the team is faced with the decision to either extend him or fire him, and it’s a difficult case to make that he deserves an extension with the Chargers having lost 13 of their past 18 games under McCoy after last season’s hopeful 8–4 start.
Sunday’s home finale win against Miami might have helped McCoy’s case a little, and you can never underestimate the financial element that might be involved, meaning the team’s ownership might not want to spend big money on a new coaching staff in the midst of a relocation. Then again, as one league source said: “If they move to L.A., they’re going to want to start with a bigger-name coach. In L.A., they’re not the only game in town any more like in San Diego. They would need a bigger presence to make an impact.”
But who is that bigger name and would the Chargers be able to land him as part of their relocation to the bigger market? Like everything else with this team, the unanswered questions abound.
Worth watching...
San Francisco: The prevailing opinion seems to be that Jim Tomsula will survive and stagger into a second season with the 49ers, providing San Francisco doesn’t end the season by going down in flames in their final two games. But that Week 14 loss at Cleveland did real damage to Tomsula, so no one can be sure what team CEO Jed York and general manager Trent Baalke might decide at season’s end.
Firing Tomsula after just one season, however, would be an admission that York and Baalke got it wrong last year when they forced Jim Harbaugh out the door, and league sources tell me they can’t quite imagine York and Baalke being ready to admit that fairly obvious reality.
Buffalo: Most of those handicapping the Bills' offseason have general manager Doug Whaley being on the endangered list solo. But there’s almost always a coaching change that few saw coming, and it would not be a stunning development if Rex Ryan being one-and-done in Buffalo is this year’s surprise.
There are those who believe Bills owner Terry Pegula feels a little duped by Ryan’s bluster and big talk about the playoffs last January, and that he might just be ready to eat the four years that still remain on his coach’s contract. It doesn’t help at all that Ryan’s former team, the Jets, might make the playoffs this season, while the Bills have regressed mightily on some fronts after last season’s 9–7 mark under Doug Marrone. The defense has been a calamity at times, and that was supposed to be what Ryan knew best and could deliver on.
Whaley does indeed look to be in trouble, but as one league source noted about Buffalo’s turbulent 2015 season, Ryan was either “going to be in the playoffs this year or in somebody's TV studio next year.”
What else we’re hearing as Black Monday looms...
St. Louis: As mediocre as his record has been for the Rams, sources in St. Louis said two weeks ago that Jeff Fisher was not in any jeopardy of being canned unless his team fell on its face in the final four games of the season and “lost all of them 40–0.” That didn’t happen, as the Rams have won their past three games and actually fielded a legitimate NFL offense in Thursday night’s victory over visiting Tampa Bay. So Fisher isn’t going anywhere.
Houston: There were reports and rumors earlier this season that tension existed between head coach Bill O’Brien and general manager Rick Smith, a notion that was dutifully shot down by all concerned in the Texans organization. But there’s probably some fire with this smoke, because two different league sources told me that O’Brien and Smith aren’t the biggest fans of one another, and that it would not be surprising to see Smith promoted to a team president role or something similar this offseason. Presumably that would mean an increased say in personnel say for O’Brien.
Atlanta: My sense is that embattled Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff will return in his same job next year, thanks in part to first-season head coach Dan Quinn coming out with a strong statement of support for him. But not everybody I talked to for this Black Monday preview shared that optimism, with one source saying “it’ll be a miracle” if Dimitroff survives Atlanta’s second-half unraveling after the team’s 5–0 start. Miracles do happen, even in the NFL, and I think Dimitroff is safe.
• There’s still some time for things to change, but my top five candidates who aren’t currently head coaches, but will get hired this offseason are, in some order: Josh McDaniels, Sean McDermott, Adam Gase, Hue Jackson and Jim Schwartz.
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/12/30/nfl-head-coach-candidates-list-black-monday
The Hiring List
Several NFL coaches will be fired after Week 17, and the search for their replacements will begin immediately. From Hue Jackson and Teryl Austin to Matt Patricia and Sean McDermott, here are 10 candidates ready to go
by Robert Klemko
Michael Hickey/Getty Images
Hue Jackson, who coached the Raiders in 2011, will be a hot commodity this offseason after coordinating the Bengals’ potent offense.
Last summer, The MMQB polled 24 sources including current and former NFL front-office leaders, agents, coaches and three plugged-in reporters in the aim of identifying the Top 32 head-coaching candidates in the NFL.
You can read that exhaustive list here. This time around, we used information gleaned from 20 sources to nail down a Top 10 in advance of Black Monday, when as many as eight NFL teams are expected to move on from current coaches.
The below list is an informative, but flawed exercise; it’s quite possible that our No. 10 coach—Seattle’s Tom Cable—might be a better fit for Team A than the No. 1 coach on our list, Cincinnati’s Hue Jackson. And we’re certain there will be strong consideration for coaches not on our list—including Chip Kelly (fired during our information-collecting process), and other current head coaches who get the ax.
* * *
We’ll get to the Top 10, but first a note about our No. 2 candidate, Carolina’s Sean McDermott.
He’s a near lock to be offered multiple jobs this winter—several sources believed he should’ve occupied the No. 1 spot on our list, ahead of Jackson. He’s a fast-riser at 41 years old, 18 years removed from a stellar college career as a safety alongside future All-Pro safety Darren Sharper at William and Mary. Jimmye Laycock, who also coached Mike Tomlin at William and Mary, says of McDermott: “He was one of those guys you could just tell was going to be a great coach.”
But here’s what makes McDermott truly unique: Among current head coaches, if hired, McDermott would be the only one who entered the league through the scouting department. After working as a graduate assistant at William and Mary for a season, McDermott landed a job in Philadelphia (where he would eventually supplant Jim Johnson as defensive coordinator) as a scouting administrative coordinator.
Photo: Chuck Burton/AP
Teams with head-coaching vacancies can interview Sean McDermott during the Panthers' playoff bye week.
“It was so valuable, just learning what Jim and Andy (Reid) looked for in players,” McDermott said this week by phone. “I didn’t know it at the time but I know it now—not everybody is fortunate to have those type of mentors at an early age.”
Twelve years later, McDermott’s eye on the scouting process may have landed Carolina a perennial Top 5 cornerback in the NFL. Josh Norman, NFL combine snub out of Coastal Carolina, made a name for himself with a spirited, borderline desperate East-West Shrine Game week in 2012.
“He was obnoxious, and flamboyant, and doing too much on the practice field,” one personnel man told The MMQB. “Honestly, it turned a lot of people off to him.”
But McDermott was poring through defensive back practice tape and noticed Norman do something odd in a one-on-one. After an incomplete pass fell short, Norman reached out and effortlessly snagged the wobbling grounder with one hand. Four months later, the Panthers took him in the fifth round, ahead of All-American Alabama cornerback DeQuan Menzie (who is now out of the league). Four seasons later, and Norman is one of the top-rated corners in the NFL.
“At that point in the draft you’re looking for redeemable qualities,” McDermott says, “and we felt he just hadn’t been exposed to some of the things players at higher levels had, but he was capable. Just from the way he played that ball, you could tell he had ball skills. We liked the length and the way he carried himself. Credit to the coaches and to Josh for where he is now as a player.”
Some of that credit should go to the system McDermott has installed, a zone-based scheme with selective blitzing which has produced, since his hiring in 2011, the 28th, 10th, 2nd, 10th and 4th-ranked defenses in terms of yards allowed.
But if McDermott’s going to thrive in the NFL, he’ll need a quarterback, and there’s a likelihood he’ll have the opportunity to draft one at a new landing spot. So what does the top defensive coordinator on our list look for in a QB after spending five seasons watching Cam Newton?
“The thing with Cam is, he’s kind of the modern athlete in a lot of ways,” McDermott says. “Being able to adapt coaching styles and relationships to the modern athlete is important.
“The thing that stands up the most about Cam, and what I see on tape with Jameis Winston, the guy we’re playing this weekend, is winning. Everywhere they’ve been they’ve won, and they’re highly competitive. Guys who love to compete—it stands out. Yes, they may not be a finished product, but when the lights come on they’re at their best. They’re prime time players.”
* * *
Photo: AP File
Top Row, left to right: Teryl Austin, Doug Marrone, Mike Shula; Middle Row: Hue Jackson, Adam Gase, Jim Schwartz; Bottom Row: Josh McDaniels, Tom Cable, Matt Patricia.
One last reminder: This is an unscientific study of something that cannot be studied in a scientific way. As one evaluator said, “Lots of different lists around the league. We have owners and GMs who wouldn’t realize Vince Lombardi would be good if he was sitting in front of them!”
1. Hue Jackson, Bengals Offensive Coordinator
Age: 50
College: Pacific
Pro experience: 15 seasons, one as head coach (Oakland 2011)
Head coaching record: 8-8
This summer we called him a “wild card,” and a guy who has “built a marketing machine around his candidacy.” Jackson called me on that last part (he reads everything). Five months later, and the Bengals have the fourth-best scoring offense in the NFL, led by vastly improved quarterback Andy Dalton. To boot, the Bengals split two games after Dalton got hurt. “You know why [Jackson will] be the top candidate?” one source told us. “Look at what he just did with A.J. ----ing McCarron.”
2. Sean McDermott, Panthers Defensive Coordinator
Age: 41
College: William and Mary
Pro experience: 17 seasons, seven as coordinator (Philadelphia 2009-10, Carolina 2011-present)
The emergence of Josh Norman and Kawann Short just adds to the list of defensive stars developed under McDermott, who took Carolina from last in the league in DVOA (Football Outsiders’ measure of efficiency over the course of a season) to a consistent Top 5 defense. The big mystery with McDermott is how he would manage an offense, making his choice of offensive coordinator a critical piece of the hiring process.
3. Josh McDaniels, Patriots Offensive Coordinator
Age: 39
College: John Carroll
Pro experience: 15 seasons, two as head coach (Denver 2009-10)
Head coaching record: 11-17 (0-0 playoffs)
The offensive guru with a disastrous stint as head coach in Denver received a number of No. 1 votes from our source pool. Problem is, there’s doubt about Belichick underlings in much the same way organizations now doubt Alabama draft prospects who achieved success under Nick Saban. But McDaniels’ supporters are staunch. “He’s been thoughtful and truly reflective of the mistakes he made,” said one evaluator. “I think that will come through in his interview.”
4. Doug Marrone, Jaguars Assistant Head Coach
Age: 51
College: Syracuse
Pro experience: 10 seasons, two as head coach (Buffalo 2013-2014)
Head coaching record: 15-17
This may seem like a head-scratcher but there exists a considerable consensus Marrone will be among those candidates interviewed by nearly every club. The former Syracuse lineman and head coach turned the Bills around from 6-10 to 9-7, then departed on his own terms. Now Jacksonville’s offensive line coach, Marrone has his detractors and his supporters. Said one source: “He’s disciplined, and a tremendous leader.” Said another: “They don’t even like him in Jacksonville all that much.”
5. Adam Gase, Bears Offensive Coordinator
Age: 37
College: Michigan State
Pro experience: 13 years, three as a coordinator (Denver 2013-14, Chicago 2015)
Gase is probably thanking his lucky stars he turned down the 49ers job this offseason. He spent a year with Jay Cutler and helped drop his interception count from 18 in 2014 to eight in 2015 (so far). Gase can interview “inexperienced” in the eyes of some, and it was Chicago’s defense which anchored midseason success. Only two coaches in recent history have been hired off a losing season—Marty Mornhinweg and Mike McCarthy.
6. Teryl Austin, Lions Defensive Coordinator
Age: 50
College: Pittsburgh
Pro experience: 12 seasons, two as coordinator (Detroit 2014-present)
Really impressed in interviews last offseason but was determined by many to be a year away. Was this a good enough year? Detroit is 6-9 with the 17th-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed, but the Lions have won five of their past seven, and Austin has been working with a defense that lost three of its best players in Ndamukong Suh (free agency), Nick Fairley (free agency) and DeAndre Levy (injury). Multiple sources described Austin as a “natural leader.”
7. Matt Patricia, Patriots Defensive Coordinator
Age: 41
College: Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
Pro experience: 12 seasons, four as coordinator (New England 2012-present)
Coordinates the seventh-ranked defense in the NFL with the second-highest turnover rate. There was some concern that inexperienced young corners Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler could struggle in 2015. Instead, they’re two of the top-rated cover corners in football. Patricia is described as “freaky smart” by one evaluator, though many are wary of the Belichick tag.
8. Jim Schwartz, Unemployed
Age: 49
College: Georgetown
Pro experience: 22 years, five as head coach (Detroit 2009-13)
Head coaching record: 29-52 (0-1 playoffs)
The rise of Schwartz in the eyes of evaluators has a lot to do with his success last season in Buffalo (fourth in points allowed and yards) in contrast with Buffalo’s regression on defense under supposed defensive guru Rex Ryan in 2015. “A lot of guys don’t feel they need to reinvent himself and he did,” said one evaluator. Schwartz will be two years removed from his ouster as Detroit’s head coach, where his offenses were inconsistently prolific and prolifically inconsistent.
9. Mike Shula, Panthers Offensive Coordinator
Age: 50
College: Alabama
Pro experience: 23 years, three as coordinator (Carolina 2013-present)
Alabama’s former head coach has looked like a genius this season at the helm of an offense with a dearth of talent at wide receiver and a middling offensive line. As Carolina’s coach in 2011, the year Cam Newton went No. 1 overall, Shula helped incorporate Auburn’s offense into Carolina’s scheme, easing Newton’s transition and setting the stage for what looks like an MVP season in 2015.
10. Tom Cable, Seahawks Offensive Line Coach
Age: 51
College: Idaho
Pro experience: 10 seasons, three as head coach (Oakland, 2008-10)
Head coaching record: 17-27
Vaults up our list after coaching the lowest-paid offensive line in football through a turbulent season which saw Seattle lose running back Marshawn Lynch and remain in the top five in rushing offense. The Raiders went 8-8 in Cable’s second full season as head coach, but Hue Jackson replaced him in 2011. Downgraded by most evaluators in light of a 2009 incident in which he reportedly broke an assistant’s jaw with a punch. Said one evaluator: “That’s not something you can easily shake.”
Missed the Cut
Todd Haley, Steelers Offensive Coordinator; Vic Fangio, Bears Defensive Coordinator; Mike Shanahan, Unemployed; Paul Guenther, Bengals Defensive Coordinator; Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers Offensive Coordinator
A few notes about the list:
• It does not include some of the college coaches who have been in the discussion in years past (David Shaw, Jim Mora, Nick Saban, Kevin Sumlin, etc.) but we’re not ruling out the possibility that one of them could be lured into the NFL. If we were to include college coaches, Shaw would be the only man in our Top 10, and he would rank high. Said one decision maker: “He checks all the boxes. Pro-style offense. Pedigree. Minority.”
But Shaw told The MMQB’s Peter King at the Heisman ceremony in early December, “I know a lot of guys in the NFL. I know guys at almost every franchise in the NFL, and I can tell you, even the ones who are winning, nobody is having as much fun at his job as I am having at my job.” Said another personnel man with ties to Shaw: “You’re not getting that guy to leave Palo Alto.”
• We also did not include two coaches, who, if fired, are likely to get job consideration around the league—Asshole Face and Chuck Pagano. Ditto for Chip Kelly. But it should be noted that guys like Kelly are no lock to get a job; only two out of the past 14 coaching hires (2014 and 2015) were head coaches elsewhere the prior year. But the main reason we didn’t include them is this: We don’t know who’ll be fired, and Kelly lost his job midway through our polling.
• Six of our Top 10 coaches come from an offensive background and four from a defensive background. Two of our Top 10 are African American (Jackson and Austin), an important qualifier in a league under pressure to add to the ranks of minority coaches.
• In the summer, our Top 10 (excluding college coaches) looked like this.
1. Adam Gase, Bears Offensive Coordinator
2. Josh McDaniels, Patriots Offensive Coordinator
3. Teryl Austin, Lions Defensive Coordinator
4. Pep Hamilton, Colts Offensive Coordinator
5. Frank Reich, Chargers Offensive Coordinator
6. Doug Marrone, Jaguars Offensive Line Coach
7. Sean McDermott, Panthers Defensive Coordinator
8. Pat Shurmur, Eagles Offensive Coordinator
9. Hue Jackson, Bengals Offensive Coordinator
10. Greg Roman, Bills Offensive Coordinator
Hamilton was fired midseason, and Reich, Shurmur and Roman led offenses that oscillated from mediocre to bad. All four of them will probably get a shot at head-coaching jobs at some point; poor performances are rarely if ever the lone fault of the coordinator.
