The NFL Record Book Is Under Assault in the 2018 Season

[Akrasian]

The NFL Record Book Is Under Assault in the 2018 Season
BRAD GAGNONOCTOBER 2, 2018

https://bleacherreport.com/articles...om&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral

Harry How/Getty Images
Each of the seven highest-scoring seasons in NFL history took place between 2010 and 2016. Rules making it harder for defensive players to do their jobs led to more opportunities for offenses—and quarterbacks in particular—to explode. Several teams led by in-their-prime superstar quarterbacks—Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Michael Vick, among others—took advantage.

But that all changed in 2017, which was suddenly the lowest-scoring season this decade. That caused many of us to wonder whether the NFL had a scoring problem.

Had defenses finally caught up?

Nope.

The first month of the 2018 regular season strongly indicates that the 2017 campaign was a low-scoring aberration.
The average NFL game this season has featured 48.1 points, which is up nearly 10 percent from 43.9 during the first four weeks of the 2017 season. It's on pace to become the highest-scoring season in NFL history by a 327-point margin over the 2013 campaign. That's equivalent to more than 46 converted touchdowns.

A few additional points:

• This is just about on track to be the first 1,400-touchdown season in league history. Only three seasons have featured 1,300 touchdowns.
• NFL games are averaging 725 total yards, which is a record pace. Only twice in league history has that total been north of 700 for an entire season.
• Teams are averaging 5.6 yards per play. That total has never been higher than 5.5 and is way up from 5.3 last season.

Last year, Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio suggested low point totals in September might have been a result of "the cumulative effect" of "reduced offseason workouts, reduced intensity of training camp practices [and] reduced padded practices." While that's a fair hypothesis, it seems as though the league has gotten to a point at which that lack of preparation might not matter.

Scoring might be up even more if teams could still practice the way they did under the last collective bargaining agreement. That 48.1 number would undoubtedly be even higher if teams were still kicking extra points from the two-yard line rather than the 15-yard line. Kickers have already missed 14 extra points this season, whereas they missed only eight during the entire 2014 season—the last under the old rule.

Unsurprisingly, this is all about the quarterbacks:

• Ten qualified quarterbacks have passer ratings above 100. Five have completion rates above 70. Five have at least 10 touchdowns and two or fewer interceptions. Three have yards-per-attempt averages above 9.0—a mark that's been hit only 13 times in modern NFL history. Those numbers are up from eight, two, oneand two at this point in 2017. They're up from eight, two, one and one at this point in 2016.
• The leaguewide completion rate is 65.4. It's never been higher than 63.0.
• The leaguewide yards-per-attempt average is 7.5. It hasn't been that high in a half-century.
• The leaguewide passer rating is 92.6. It's never been higher than 88.4, and was 85.1 last season.
• The leaguewide passing touchdowns-per-game rate is 1.8. It's never been higher than 1.6.
• Offenses are averaging fewer rushing yards per game (106.7) than in any other season in NFL history except 1994 and 1999 (104.3 and 106.5, respectively).

Drew Brees has been practically perfect this season.Bill Kostroun/Associated Press/Associated Press
As for records, if the season continued on at this pace...

• Brees would set a new single-season record for completion percentage (75.8), while both Eli Manning (74.2) and Jared Goff (72.4) would also break the previous record (72.0, set by Brees last season).
• Roethlisberger would set a new single-season record for passing yards (5,656), while Goff (5,624), Kirk Cousins of the Minnesota Vikings (5,548) and Derek Carr of the Oakland Raiders (5,492) would also break the previous record (5,477, set by Peyton Manning in 2013).
• Patrick Mahomes would set a new single-season record for passing touchdowns (56), breaking Manning's record of 55 set in 2013.
• Goff would set a new modern-era record for yards per attempt (10.5), breaking Kurt Warner's record of 9.9 set in 2000. Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is on the same pace, but that's unlikely to hold up now that Jameis Winston has taking the starting job back in Tampa Bay.
• Goff would set a new single-season record for passer rating (127.3), while Mahomes (126.5) would also break the previous record (122.5, set by Rodgers in 2011).

This is all a bit inflated by what happened this weekend. Chase Stuart of Football Perspective crunched the numbers to determine that this was the "greatest passing week in passing history."

"The average passer rating so far has been an outstanding 99.3, which would make it the second-best in NFL history. But what's even more incredible are the other passing stats: The average ANY/A has been an insanely high 7.16! The big difference between passer rating and ANY/A is completion percentage, which is only reflected in the former statistic. An absurdly high completion percentage made the Week 2 passer rating so high (69.4%), while teams have 'only' completed 65.0% of passes so far this week. But while teams averaged 7.6 yards per attempt in Week 2, they've averaged 7.9 yards/attempt so far this week."

A few nuggets to back that up:

• Per the NFL, there were a record five 400-yard passing performances in Week 4, and the 12 400-yard games recorded by passers this season is a record at the four-week mark.
• Also according to the league, Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck became just the 11th signal-caller in league history to pass for at least 450 yards and four touchdowns without throwing an interception in a single game in Sunday's loss to the Houston Texans. But Luck wasn't even the first quarterback to accomplish that feat this week, because Goff did the same Thursday night against the Vikings.

As the season wears on and the weather gets colder, there's room for passers to slow down while maintaining a record-breaking collective pace. That's how hot the league's passing offenses have been this season.

What do we chalk it up to?



Peak quarterback

Though teams pass more frequently now than ever before, sack rates are low and quarterbacks take fewer hits than in the past. As a result, we're basically seeing two generations of great quarterbacks at the same time.

Philip Rivers has also been on fire this season.Marcio Sanchez/Associated Press
Legends like Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger and Rivers continue to put up huge numbers in their late 30s. Meanwhile, a new wave of young guns has finally emerged, with Goff, Mahomes, Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, Carr, Dak Prescott, Jimmy Garoppolo, Marcus Mariota and Mitchell Trubisky all flashing early in their careers. Throw in quarterbacks currently in their prime—Rodgers, Ryan, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford and Alex Smith—and the NFL might no longer be a league with fewer franchise quarterbacks than franchises.

That was almost the case last season, too, but the major difference was that many of those quarterbacks failed to stay healthy. Rodgers, Luck, Watson, Wentz, Carson Palmer and Ryan Tannehill missed a combined 62 games, which contributed to last season's drop in offensive production.



Peak creativity

The NFL has turned into an arms race. Per our research, teams are passing 61 percent of the time, and the game has shifted toward offense and passing to such a degree that those areas receive the vast majority of the attention.

Sean McVay is one of several promising offensive-minded head coaches.Harry How/Getty Images
Fifteen of the 20 head coaches hired since 2016 were offensive specialists, and gurus like Doug Pederson, Sean McVay, Matt Nagy, Kyle Shanahan, Doug Marrone and Anthony Lynn have already had a lot of success. They're smart, creative and bold, and we're seeing that on the scoreboard.



Peak aggressiveness

The Titans could have settled for a 23-23 tie Sunday against Philadelphia, but first-year head coach Mike Vrabel rolled the dice on a 4th-and-2 from the Philadelphia 32-yard line, eschewing a 50-yard field-goal attempt that would have tied it. It paid off, resulting in three extra points when Tennessee found the end zone three plays later.

Minutes later, the Colts could have settled for a 34-34 tie against Houston, but first-year head coach Frank Reich rolled the dice on a 4th-and-4 from his own 43-yard line with less than 30 seconds remaining in overtime. It didn't pay off, but it resulted in three extra points when the Texans kicked a field goal to win.

Pederson has developed a reputation as a gambler, too, and it seems as though the league is finally coming around to taking calculated chances on fourth down. There's been an eight percent rise in fourth-down conversion attempts this season compared to last September.

This mentality shift doesn't solely explain why scoring is up, but it's a contributing factor. Punts are an enemy of points, and punt rates are also down significantly this year.



Roughing the passer

Alex Brandon/Associated Press
Defensive penalties have risen by seven percent this season, particularly roughing-the-passer calls. The league is emphasizing its body-weight provision with regard to those plays, which is part of the reason there's been a 53 percent rise in such penalties through four weeks, per our calculations using data from NFLPenalties.com.

That isn't the entire reason offensive passing numbers have exploded, but it has worked to extend drives more often.

Put it all together, and the result is fairly predictable.

"Look at the rules," Jaguars defensive lineman Calais Campbell told NBC's Peter King last month. "I know the NFL is trying to make the game safer, but the safer they make it, the easier they make it for the offense. Offense makes good TV. The quarterbacks are the rock stars of the league, and they want to protect them. My job's harder."


_______________________________________________________________________

Note how they used pics of Goff and McVay for the article. Just saying.

This confirms what some of us were saying this offseason - the league is favoring the offense now, not the defense. That could change, but for now, it's a QB league.

 

[SteveBrown]

WOW....thanks..quite anarticle!

 

[ScotsRam]

The competitive balance between offense and defense is now completely flawed in my opinion. I don't mind so much at the moment because we are winning but I wish they would give defense a chance. It's practically impossible to play as a rusher or a DB now without giving up penalties all the time.

 

[Merlin]

CB value is going to go through the MFing roof, from draft position to FA. Cover corners have always been coveted but I have to think that now it's going to get to a new level.

 

[TexasRam]

CB value is going to go through the MFing roof, from draft position to FA. Cover corners have always been coveted but I have to think that now it's going to get to a new level.

And pass rushers.

The Article is solid. We have been discussing these same observations at work, but some of the stats they bring to the conversation are thought provoking. 15-20 coaches hired since 2016 are offensive minded. Passing is up to 61 percent. Teams are more aggressive and going for it on 4th down. Penalty's on defense are up extending drives and making them play less aggressive etc.

I think its good for the league. Honestly baseball playoffs are on and people in my office would rather talk fantasy football then what is happening in any baseball game.

 

[Prime Time]

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/10/3/17930962/offensive-explosion-no-one-reason

There’s No One Reason for the NFL’s Offensive Explosion
Teams are moving the ball and scoring at rates we’ve never seen before. But it’s not just the rule changes or a few elite teams that are behind the shift—a confluence of factors are changing the league as we know it.
By Danny Kelly

Getty Images/Ringer illustration

So much for the NFL’s crisis on offense. After seeing passing stats drop leaguewide and scoring hit a decade-low in 2017, we’ve watched in awe as offensive numbers have skyrocketed in the first month of this season. With Patrick Mahomes II and Jared Goff leading the charge, the league’s explosion on offense has conjured memories of the ’98 home-run race between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, when records weren’t just broken but absolutely annihilated.

Of course, steroids and a juiced ball powered baseball’s home-run eruption in the mid-’90s and early 2000s, but in the PED- and deflated-ball-regulated NFL, neither of those are principal factors here. So what’s behind the NFL’s massive jump in offense so far this season?

The NFL, for better or worse, is a quarterback-centric league. And right now, passers are posting historic levels of volume and efficiency: In Week 4, QBs combined for a collective 9,074 passing yards—the first week ever in which passers averaged 300 passing yards per team game—and notched an average 98.2 passer rating.

Through four weeks, quarterbacks have completed 2,997 passes for 34,238 yards and 227 touchdowns with a 94.4 passer rating, all highs for the decade. And it’s not just a few teams propping up the rest:


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After four weeks, few single-season passing records appear safe. Mahomes (14 touchdowns) is on pace to break Peyton Manning’s touchdown record (55). Goff (127.3) and Mahomes (126.5) are both on pace to surpass Aaron Rodgers’s record for passer rating (122.5). Ben Roethlisberger (1,414 yards), Goff (1,406), Kirk Cousins (1,387), and Derek Carr (1,373) are all on pace to break Manning’s record for passing yards (5,477).

And that QB production has trickled down to skill players: Julio Jones (502 yards) is on pace to break Calvin Johnson’s receiving-yards record (1,964). Michael Thomas (42 catches) and Adam Thielen (40) are both on pace to break Marvin Harrison’s record for receptions (143), and Alvin Kamara’s not far off (35). Calvin Ridley (six touchdown catches)—a rookie—is on pace to break Randy Moss’s touchdowns record (23).

The first and most obvious explanation for this incredible spike in production is the combination of rule tweaks and points of emphasis the NFL enacted for 2018. The new “helmet rule” applies to everyone on the field but most strongly benefits pass catchers and runners, who are now protected from hits defenders initiate with the helmet.

The catch rules have been softened, too: Players no longer have to control the ball through the ground, and slight movement of it throughout the process of a catch is no longer automatically seen as a loss of control. Additionally, the league made illegal contact downfield a point of emphasis, and the highly controversial body-weight rules for hitting quarterbacks give passers an added layer of protection.

All of these changes favor offense, even if their well-intentioned purpose is principally to improve the safety of the game. Quarterbacks can now stand in the pocket more confidently than ever, knowing they’re less likely to get clobbered by a defender. Receivers can roam the middle of the field with relative ease, knowing those knockout hits from safeties are now outlawed.

And, while this is still flying under the radar, it’s increasingly difficult for defenders to even touch opposing pass catchers at all, as illegal contact penalties have tripled year over year. Put together, we’ve seen a historic rate of penalty-induced first downs in 2018—leading to more yards and points for offenses around the league.

These rules changes are just some of a confluence of factors that have boosted passing and scoring numbers. The NFL has also experienced a spike in quality quarterbacks, is in the middle of a sea change in offensive philosophy (in part due to extraordinary levels of offensive-coordinator turnover this year), has gotten a little luck in the health department, and is likely benefiting from some good old-fashioned variance.

Let’s start with the NFL’s quarterback situation, which seems to have quickly transformed from a major problem for the league to one of its biggest strengths. The Packers, Colts, and Dolphins all got a boost by getting Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck, and Ryan Tannehill back from injury and onto the field. An extraordinary QB free-agent market helped distribute quality passers like Kirk Cousins and Case Keenum to teams in need.

And perhaps most importantly, the last three draft classes have produced what looks to be the future at the position: From Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes II, Mitchell “six touchdowns” Trubisky, Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold, and Baker Mayfield, to yes, perhaps even Josh Allen, the league’s next generation has stepped into starting roles.

There are varying levels of talent, but most squads at least have some semblance of skill and potential at that spot—a big change from the last few seasons. The gulf between the best QBs and the worst isn’t as large as most people might think, either, and it’s likely going to shrink as the year goes on and players like Rosen, Mayfield, and Allen find their footing.

The league’s new quarterback dynamic may never have emerged if not for decision makers’ reluctant acceptance of college-style offenses. Coaches and GMs around the the NFL seem to have finally accepted that trying to fit a square peg (college QB) into a round hole (pro-style offense) just doesn’t work—and that building an offense around college-style concepts does.

It’s not that the Air Raid, the read option, and RPOs are new to the NFL, exactly, but in the past they’ve typically been reserved for the handful of teams forward-thinking and bold enough to implement them at any given time. Now, as Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley told The Ringer’s Kevin Clark, the difference is that the so-called college offense is now woven into every pro scheme. Shotgun looks, three- and four-receiver sets, and the simple ideas of using deception and playing fast are here to stay.

The NFL game is now played like basketball on grass, where spacing and tempo have replaced old-school smashmouth principles. Passers are more efficient than ever because coaches are spreading out receivers, tight ends, and running backs into space—using bunch formations, motion, and mesh-route concepts to confuse coverage. Another mainstay of the college game—the pre- and post-snap jet sweep or orbit motion, is being used more than ever.

Last year, teams ran 170 jet-sweep plays (either true handoffs or “touch” passes, which are essentially handoffs) to gain 870 yards, per Sports Info Solutions’ game charting. This year, in just a month of action (and excluding this week’s Monday Night Football), offenses have already run those sweep plays 69 times, gaining 531 yards—on pace for a 144 percent yardage increase year to year—at an average of 7.7 yards per play. That’s a small sample size, of course, but it represents a monumental jump over last year, when teams averaged 5.1 yards on sweep plays.

Some of the best offenses in the league—particularly those of the Rams and Chiefs—have used these jet sweeps to confuse defenses, and a handful more like the Chargers, Texans, and 49ers have used the sweep action, without an actual handoff, as a type of play-action fake meant to pull defenders in the middle toward the sideline and get defenders on the edge to take false steps.

It’s worked, especially in the passing game, where, per Sports Info Solutions, pass plays involving a fake-sweep motion have produced 8.6 yards per attempt—a full yard better than the league average (7.5) on all other passes.


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College-style spacing, formations, route concepts, and pre-snap deception all help receivers create separation. And, as NFL Next Gen Stats analyst Mike Band notes, we’ve seen a huge jump in pass attempts to “wide-open” receivers (defined as pass catchers who have 3-plus yards of separation when the ball arrives) over the last three seasons (from 36.6 percent in 2016 to 38.7 percent in 2017 to 42.2 percent this year).

Part of this may be due to a higher reliance on running backs as easy dump-off options out of the backfield, but it’s clear that NFL play-callers are scheming up ways to get the ball out quickly to wide-open pass catchers.

That’s likely part of the reason teams are passing more this year, an indication that the league may finally be realizing that passing is more efficient than running. Through four weeks, the average team’s pass rate (pass attempts plus sacks) is 60.6 percent, a full 3 points higher than the season-long average last year (57.6). We can see that in play-calling tendencies this year, particularly on traditionally run-heavy first downs.

Through four weeks, teams are passing 51.6 percent of the time on first down, on track to finish 4.5 percentage points higher than last year’s mark (47.1) and the highest pass rate of first-down passing this century. Breaking out play-calling to all neutral-situation downs (first and second down, in the first three quarters, with the score within eight points), pass rates this year (52 percent) are higher than in each of the last two years (50 percent last year, 51 percent in 2016), per Sharp Football Stats.

Football is a zero-sum game, and this season’s offensive explosion has come at the expense of defenses that have, for the most part, struggled to adapt. The season’s long; scoring may wane as defensive coaches adjust to new players and new play-callers; passing efficiency may drop as players get hurt and as the weather gets colder.

But that’s no sure thing, and with offenses showing little sign of slowing down, we might be getting closer to talking about how the league’s going to solve its defensive crisis.

 

[Prime Time]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/10/04/nfl-offense-passing-records-through-four-weeks

Six Reasons for the NFL’s Early Offensive Explosion
By ALBERT BREER

When Jared Goff’s plant foot hit grass at the bottom of his drop with 1:30 left in the first half last Thursday, there were eight Viking defenders within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. When he let the ball go, there was only one within 20 yards of new Ram Brandin Cooks, sprinting to the post. And the rest, really, was academic.

We’ve seen this scene unfold everywhere in the NFL this fall.

First down. Receiver coming uninterrupted off the line, and unbothered by the threat of contact. Defense geared to respect the run. Offense raring to take a shot. Touchdown.

“They are playing aggressively on early downs,” said one rival quarterbacks coach. “And that’s a trend sweeping the league.”

It’s sweeping the league, mainly because it’s working—and just as the league wants it to. With an influx of gunslinging young quarterbacks, rules changes geared towards juicing offenses, unintended consequences of other rules changes and coaches more open-minded than ever before, passing numbers and scoring have exploded. It’s like money play after money play, straight out of Madden 98.

Explaining it is a little more complicated than just hitting buttons. But the statistics are crystal clear:

• There have been 228 touchdown passes through four weeks, breaking the previous high-water mark of 205 (2013).
• The league’s collective completion percentage (65.4) and passer rating (94.5) are also four-week records, topping marks set in 2014 (64.3, 91.5).
• Passing yards through four weeks (32,215) also ran at an all-time high, edging the mark set in 2016 (31,616).
• Eleven quarterbacks have more than 1,200 yards through four weeks. The previous four-week high there was seven, in 2011.
• Seven quarterbacks have double-digit touchdown passes, and 10 have a triple-digit passer rating. Both are four-week high water marks.
• There have also been more touchdowns (344) and points (3030) through four weeks than ever before.

So what gives? We’re going to get to your mail and to players to watch for the weekend, both in college and the pros, in a minute, but we’re leading off this week’s Game Plan by working to tell you why the NFL’s longstanding desire for Big 12-style scoring and pyrotechnics came together in a wild September (and spilled over in Patrick Mahomes’ crazy October 1).

And after hitting up a bunch of coaches, on both sides of the ball, as well as scouts, the one-line conclusion I came to is that there is no one thing you can assign all of this to. Instead, it’s a number of changes, some made to push this offensive shift, and some helping the NFL get there organically. So let’s dive into the reasons, in no specific order:

1. Rules changes: This is the most obvious, and goes back a decade to when the illegal contact rules were emphasized, handcuffing defensive backs. Now, with the helmet rule and body-weight rule in the spotlight, teams see apparent examples on film of safeties pulling up on potential kill shots, and linebackers lowering their target area. So naturally, that goes into coaching.

“The middle of the field is a danger-free zone,” one pro scouting director texted me. “You used to face certain teams, like Seattle, with certain players, and unless you wanted to lose guys, you stayed away. You don’t have to be as concerned about that, and even if you get hit, it’ll probably be a penalty.” Those flags extend drives and, at times, generate scoring chances and passing yards that weren’t there before.

2. College offenses: I’d refer back to the June 25 and July 23 editions of The MMQB, with Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley and Chicago’s Matt Nagy, to fully explain this one. In short, NFL coaches are far more open-minded than they used to be to implementing college-rooted concepts, which is most obvious in places like Philadelphia, New England, Kansas City and, yes, Chicago.

That’s created a schematic cat-and-mouse game, with defenses scrambling, and coverage busts like the ones we saw on the part of the Bucs against Nagy’s Bears last week becoming more and more common. NFL football is no longer played in a phone booth.

3. Analytics: Most teams these days are looking intently at data in how they run their operation. And, as one NFC assistant coach said, “a lot of teams are buying into the analytics [on] how it is important to throw the ball more on early downs. [There are better] overall success rates on passing plays on first down, compared to running on first down.” Want proof?

Through three weeks, Bucs QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was throwing more on first down than any other down (with former Oklahoma State OC Todd Monken calling the plays), completing 31 of 44 throws on those plays for 627 yards five touchdowns, a pick and a 141.3 rating.

We used a first-down play from Goff to kick the column off, and he’s been pretty good on those too—going 46 of 56 for 668 yards, six touchdowns, no picks and a 152.1 rating. Teams are also more aggressive on fourth down, which is a factor in extending drives.

4. Offseason emphasis: This relates to rules changes, but of a different nature. Teams can’t hit in the spring, and summer contact and practice time have been cut way down under the 2011 CBA. That leaves coaches and players hard-pressed to get real run-game work done, and over time it’s caused reallocation of some of that time to even more work on the passing game. “Sh--, all we get are non-padded practices,” said one AFC offensive coordinator. “So you are almost forced to throw the ball more because that’s what you’re getting good at.”

5. QB talent: We’ve had 11 first-round quarterbacks in the last three draft cycles, and three look like home runs (Goff, Mahomes, Carson Wentz), while all five of the 2018 rookies have flashed big-time potential. Of the 11, nine are now their teams’ starters, and many have been paired with creative coaches (most notably Goff, Mahomes and Wentz) who are tailoring the offenses to their skill sets.

That means opposing defensive coaches not only have to build a book on these guys, but they also have to learn to defend new concepts put in to unlock their talent. Again, it’s a cat-and-mouse game.

6. Talent elsewhere: I thought this comment, from an NFC offensive coordinator, was interesting: “Leaguewide, there’s more speed on the field. Teams are throwing it more often, and creating more space for these speed guys to run.” Part of that comes from the college concepts meant to stretch the field vertically and horizontally.

Part of it comes from the rules that have opened areas that were previously no-fly zones. Part of it is that smaller players can’t be knocked into oblivion anymore. And so the NFL has never been a friendlier place for the Tyreek Hills and Jakeem Grants of the world.

So then the question becomes simple: Will it continue?

The weather will get colder. Defenses will learn to better defend the young quarterbacks and newfangled schemes. And that cat-and-mouse will play on. Which is to say there’s plenty of unknown ahead.

But that’s the fun part. The series of offensive haymakers we’ve gotten to this point have been a blast to watch. And it sure will be interesting to keep an eye out for the counterpunch, whenever that comes.