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The NFL pass-blocking awards: Best and worst O-lines overall, and more
Pass blocking is the NFL's secret -- or at least, underrated -- method for winning.
Analysis based on ESPN's pass block win rate (PBWR) -- a metric powered by NFL Next Gen Stats that we first unveiled last season -- led us to that conclusion and can be found right here.
But what about 2019? Which offensive lines will stand out? That's what this space is for.
Since PBWR is a mere 8 months old, we don't have a formal method of predicting pass blocking just yet. But what we do have are past results, expected starters (thanks to ESPN's Mike Clay) and a dash of my own subjectivity. Blend that all together and we're left with our predicted pass-blocking superlatives for the 2019 season.
Only thing you need to know: PBWR is simply the rate at which an offensive lineman sustains his pass block for at least 2.5 seconds. The full methodology can be found right here.
Best pass-blocking line: Indianapolis Colts
Expected starters: Anthony Castonzo, Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, Mark Glowinski, Braden Smith
The Colts finished the regular season ranked No. 9 overall in PBWR, but there are two main reasons I expect them to fly up the list in 2019 even though they'll play the exact same group they rolled with toward the end of last season.
Green Bay Packers. They boast two of the best -- if not the best -- pass-blocking tackles in the league in David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga.
Most improved pass-blocking line: New York Giants
Expected starters: Nate Solder, Will Hernandez, Jon Halapio, Kevin Zeitler, Mike Remmers
At one point during my high school swimming career, I won the team award for most improved swimmer. The subtext for the award was not subtle. The real message was that I had been an embarrassingly slow freestyler and morphed into an acceptably below-average freestyler. Technically, most improved!
That describes the Giants' offensive line.
It will not be good, but it should be better than last season. Though trading Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns was a net negative, one positive of that deal was receiving Zeitler in return. Zeitler's PBWR last season at guard was 80 percent. While that is roughly the league average, he instantly became the Giants' best pass-blocking lineman upon arrival.
No acquisition personifies the Giants' improvement more than Remmers at right tackle, however. His 73 percent PBWR (at guard) puts him around the 25th percentile of offensive linemen with significant playing time, but that was significantly better than what the Giants had at right tackle in 2018 -- Chad Wheeler (with a touch of Ereck Flowers and Brian Mihalik mixed in). That group combined for a 66 percent PBWR -- worst of any team at right tackle.
Tennessee Titans. On paper, they might be the most improved, but Jack Conklin's health questions provide quite a bit of uncertainty.
Worst pass-blocking line: San Francisco 49ers
Expected starters: Joe Staley, Laken Tomlinson, Weston Richburg, Mike Person, Mike McGlinchey
General manager John Lynch used major resources to acquire big-name defenders Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander this offseason but left an offensive line that finished 29th in pass block win rate largely untouched. That seems like a mistake.
While the Niners are in fine shape at tackle (though Staley is 34), the interior of the line is a sieve. Conventional wisdom is that tackles are the most important pass-blockers, but that becomes almost irrelevant if the guards and centers are poor blockers. We know this because that's the problem the 49ers faced a year ago with the same set of offensive linemen we're expecting them to play in 2019.
Staley was above average; McGlinchey, slightly below. But between Tomlinson, Richburg and Person, interior rushers were given almost free rein to rush at Jimmy Garoppolo, C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens.
Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan must be banking on continuity resulting in interior O-line improvement. Otherwise, Garoppolo's return to health will be for naught.
Runner-up: The Miami Dolphins, who face a similar weakness: Laremy Tunsiland Jordan Mills should be fine on the outside, but they're full of unknowns at guard and center.
Sneaky good pass-blocking line: Carolina Panthers
Expected starters: Taylor Moton, Greg Van Roten, Matt Paradis, Trai Turner, Daryl Williams
The quietest breakout star of 2018 might have been Moton. The 2017 second-round pick was thrust into action when Williams went down in Week 1 with a knee injury. Moton not only stuck at right tackle but excelled, posting an 89 percent PBWR -- fourth best in the league among qualifying tackles.
Williams, who was a shade above average in 2017, re-signed with Carolina on a one-year deal this offseason. Paradis, the former Denver Broncos center, was signed via free agency after posting a strong 85 percent PBWR before fracturing a fibula in November.
He'll play alongside Turner, a four-time Pro Bowl guard whose PBWR of 88 percent was first among guards last season. The line's expected weak point is Van Roten, but even he was roughly average last season.
Baltimore Ravens. Outside of Marshal Yanda, it's a young group that already has a track record of success. Orlando Brown Jr. looks like a steal as a third-rounder from a year ago.
Biggest wild-card pass-blocking line: Buffalo Bills
Expected Starters: Dion Dawkins, Quinton Spain, Mitch Morse, Spencer Long, Cody Ford
There are a lot of moving parts here. Morse, Long and Spain all played elsewhere last season to varying degrees of success (per our numbers: Morse was good, Long was OK and Spain was quite poor), and Ford is a second-round pick out of Oklahoma. The Sooners, for what it's worth, had a superb offensive line last season.
We haven't yet studied whether continuity is a factor in predicting pass-blocking success, but it seems reasonable to speculate that it might be. As it stands now, this much turnover along a line makes me think there will be an awful lot of variance in how well Buffalo blocks for Josh Allen. And if there's a quarterback who needs good pass blocking, it is Allen, who led the league in time to throw last season.
Runner-up: Atlanta Falcons. They could end up playing two rookies (Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary) on their offensive line, but both are first-rounders, so there is definite upside.
The NFL pass-blocking awards: Best and worst O-lines overall, and more
Pass blocking is the NFL's secret -- or at least, underrated -- method for winning.
Analysis based on ESPN's pass block win rate (PBWR) -- a metric powered by NFL Next Gen Stats that we first unveiled last season -- led us to that conclusion and can be found right here.
But what about 2019? Which offensive lines will stand out? That's what this space is for.
Since PBWR is a mere 8 months old, we don't have a formal method of predicting pass blocking just yet. But what we do have are past results, expected starters (thanks to ESPN's Mike Clay) and a dash of my own subjectivity. Blend that all together and we're left with our predicted pass-blocking superlatives for the 2019 season.
Only thing you need to know: PBWR is simply the rate at which an offensive lineman sustains his pass block for at least 2.5 seconds. The full methodology can be found right here.
Best pass-blocking line: Indianapolis Colts
Expected starters: Anthony Castonzo, Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, Mark Glowinski, Braden Smith
The Colts finished the regular season ranked No. 9 overall in PBWR, but there are two main reasons I expect them to fly up the list in 2019 even though they'll play the exact same group they rolled with toward the end of last season.
- Most of the other top pass-blocking teams lost valuable offensive linemen:Rodger Saffold and John Sullivan are gone from the Los Angeles Rams. The New England Patriots no longer have Trent Brown. Mitch Morse bolted from the Kansas City Chiefs to the Buffalo Bills.
- Because the Colts didn't start last season with this exact group: They mixed and matched early in the season while not at full strength before deciding on those five beginning in Week 6. From that point on the Colts had a PBWR of 60 percent, fourth best in the league in that span.
Green Bay Packers. They boast two of the best -- if not the best -- pass-blocking tackles in the league in David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga.
Most improved pass-blocking line: New York Giants
Expected starters: Nate Solder, Will Hernandez, Jon Halapio, Kevin Zeitler, Mike Remmers
At one point during my high school swimming career, I won the team award for most improved swimmer. The subtext for the award was not subtle. The real message was that I had been an embarrassingly slow freestyler and morphed into an acceptably below-average freestyler. Technically, most improved!
That describes the Giants' offensive line.
It will not be good, but it should be better than last season. Though trading Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns was a net negative, one positive of that deal was receiving Zeitler in return. Zeitler's PBWR last season at guard was 80 percent. While that is roughly the league average, he instantly became the Giants' best pass-blocking lineman upon arrival.
No acquisition personifies the Giants' improvement more than Remmers at right tackle, however. His 73 percent PBWR (at guard) puts him around the 25th percentile of offensive linemen with significant playing time, but that was significantly better than what the Giants had at right tackle in 2018 -- Chad Wheeler (with a touch of Ereck Flowers and Brian Mihalik mixed in). That group combined for a 66 percent PBWR -- worst of any team at right tackle.
Tennessee Titans. On paper, they might be the most improved, but Jack Conklin's health questions provide quite a bit of uncertainty.
Worst pass-blocking line: San Francisco 49ers
Expected starters: Joe Staley, Laken Tomlinson, Weston Richburg, Mike Person, Mike McGlinchey
General manager John Lynch used major resources to acquire big-name defenders Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander this offseason but left an offensive line that finished 29th in pass block win rate largely untouched. That seems like a mistake.
While the Niners are in fine shape at tackle (though Staley is 34), the interior of the line is a sieve. Conventional wisdom is that tackles are the most important pass-blockers, but that becomes almost irrelevant if the guards and centers are poor blockers. We know this because that's the problem the 49ers faced a year ago with the same set of offensive linemen we're expecting them to play in 2019.
Staley was above average; McGlinchey, slightly below. But between Tomlinson, Richburg and Person, interior rushers were given almost free rein to rush at Jimmy Garoppolo, C.J. Beathard and Nick Mullens.
Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan must be banking on continuity resulting in interior O-line improvement. Otherwise, Garoppolo's return to health will be for naught.
Runner-up: The Miami Dolphins, who face a similar weakness: Laremy Tunsiland Jordan Mills should be fine on the outside, but they're full of unknowns at guard and center.
Sneaky good pass-blocking line: Carolina Panthers
Expected starters: Taylor Moton, Greg Van Roten, Matt Paradis, Trai Turner, Daryl Williams
The quietest breakout star of 2018 might have been Moton. The 2017 second-round pick was thrust into action when Williams went down in Week 1 with a knee injury. Moton not only stuck at right tackle but excelled, posting an 89 percent PBWR -- fourth best in the league among qualifying tackles.
Williams, who was a shade above average in 2017, re-signed with Carolina on a one-year deal this offseason. Paradis, the former Denver Broncos center, was signed via free agency after posting a strong 85 percent PBWR before fracturing a fibula in November.
He'll play alongside Turner, a four-time Pro Bowl guard whose PBWR of 88 percent was first among guards last season. The line's expected weak point is Van Roten, but even he was roughly average last season.
Baltimore Ravens. Outside of Marshal Yanda, it's a young group that already has a track record of success. Orlando Brown Jr. looks like a steal as a third-rounder from a year ago.
Biggest wild-card pass-blocking line: Buffalo Bills
Expected Starters: Dion Dawkins, Quinton Spain, Mitch Morse, Spencer Long, Cody Ford
There are a lot of moving parts here. Morse, Long and Spain all played elsewhere last season to varying degrees of success (per our numbers: Morse was good, Long was OK and Spain was quite poor), and Ford is a second-round pick out of Oklahoma. The Sooners, for what it's worth, had a superb offensive line last season.
We haven't yet studied whether continuity is a factor in predicting pass-blocking success, but it seems reasonable to speculate that it might be. As it stands now, this much turnover along a line makes me think there will be an awful lot of variance in how well Buffalo blocks for Josh Allen. And if there's a quarterback who needs good pass blocking, it is Allen, who led the league in time to throw last season.
Runner-up: Atlanta Falcons. They could end up playing two rookies (Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary) on their offensive line, but both are first-rounders, so there is definite upside.
