The I'm Sick of Studying Chemistry Mock Draft

[codeman]

Release
Rodger Saffold - saves 4.2 million
Tim Barnes - saves 3 million
Eugene Sims - Saves 2.5 million
Lance Kendricks - Saves 4.25 million

Saffold and Kendricks could hypothetically stay, but I think its a good idea to move on. Saffold definitely lost a step this year and I don't think he can play tackle for a full season any more.

Resign
Trumaine Johnson CB 4 yr 50 million
TJ McDonald 2 yr 9 million
Greg Zuerlein 3 yr 8 million
Dominique Easley DT RFA 1st round
Ethan Westbrooks DE RFA first refusal

Trumaine is a top 15 CB and the Rams have to lock him up long term. He can play man to man, is excellent in zone and he creates turnovers. Its an easy decision for me. The rest of the signings are good depth and don't cost very much.

Free agency
Pierre Garcon WR 4 yr 30 million
JC Tretter C 5 Yr 35 million
Ty Nsekhe OT 3 yr 10 million
Lorenzo Alexander 2 yr 9 million
John Simon LB 3 yr 15 million

The Rams are set up well to get Garcon or Desean (or maybe both ) because of the McVay connection. Garcon has some of the best hands in the NFL and will make Goff's life a little easier. A sure handed receiver would be nice to have.
Tretter is a very good C and would be a huge upgrade to the oline. In my opinion its much harder to find a good starting center than a guard. If I'm throwing money at oline, C is the top priority.
Nsekhe is a journeyman 31 year old who started in Washington this season when Trent Williams wasn't playing. He did very good job in both the run game and pass pro. He is an RFA but most likely will be tendered as original pick (undrafted) and is a creative solution to the LT problem. He also understands McVay's protections.
Simon was strong side linebacker on Houston and would fit in really well its Wades defense. We don't really have anyone on the roster who can play SLB.
Alexander had a breakout year in the Bills 3-4 and doesn't fit their defense anymore. He would be a nice backup behind Quinn at WLB/DE.

draft

2.5 - Trade Down 2.5 + 6.5 for 2.11 + 3.17
2.11 - Carlos Henderson WR La Tech

Henderson is my draft crush this year. The 5'11 195 WR might be the most electrifying player in the entire draft. He has dynamic explosiveness, quick feet and a very physical play style. Henderson has very sure hands (only 4 drops on 130+ targets) and won the majority of contested catches that I saw. He was able to extend and make catches away from his body. His best attribute however is his run after the catch ability. There is no one as good at securing the catch and instantaneously transitioning to a runner and exploding up field for extra yards. His field vision, change of direction, and strength allowed him to break 48 tackles on his 81 receptions. According to PFF no receiver in the last 3 years has broken more than 33 in a season. He finishes plays, as seen by his 19 TD receptions. He also had 2 running TDs and 2 KO return TDs. His game compares to a mix of Odell/Corey Coleman/Golden Taint.

3.5 - Fabian Moreau CB UCLA

Moreau is a really talented cover corner who excels in press man to man. He has quick feet, good backpedal and flexible hips that allow him to turn and run with any receiver. He plays physical and regularly reroutes receivers. He is a perfect cover corner for Wade's defense and has the talent to be a first rounder in some drafts. The corner class this year is insanely talented.

4.5 - Isaac Asiata OG Utah

I am not very impressed with the oline prospects this year, but there are a handful of prospects that I liked. Asiata is a solid guard prospect. He does not have the greatest movement skills and doesn't make it look pretty, but he gets the job done. He shows outstanding strength with a good punch and technical hand use. However, sometimes he leans forward too much and loses contact with the defender. He is a massive upgrade over Wichmann and Brown who couldn't win 1 on 1 match-ups last season.

4.12 - John Johnson FS/CB Boston College

Did I say the CB group is talented. Johnson is a big bodied defender who can play almost anywhere in the secondary. He is an excellent athlete and a very smooth mover. I love him as a inside CB who can cover slot WRs, and TEs. He is a very talented player who any defensive coach would love to have. I actually think he can play outside CB as well.

4c - Eric Saubert TE Drake

There are a lot of talented move TEs this year. Saubert isn't as talented as a Engram or Everett but he can be a mismatch in McVays offense. He is a natural hands catcher with pretty good movement skills. I liked what I saw from him at the shrine game.

5.5 - Aaron Jones RB UTEP

Aaron came off a bad leg injury and exploded this season for 1770 yards (7.7 average) and 17 TDs. He also added 28 receptions and had 30 receptions 2 seasons ago. He is a very physical inside runner who has the speed to break to the outside and run away from defenders in the open field. I like his vision and his style as a RB and think he can make a very good change of pace/3rd down back.

6c - Javancy Jones LB Jackson State

Javancy is a talented linebacker who is a natural disrupter. I love him at SLB where he can rush the passer and can aggressively attack the run. He was one of the best players at the shrine game would be a nice pick later in the draft.

7.5 - Jylan Ware OT Alabama State

Jylan is very talented and should have been invited to the shrine game. He plays with good balance and strength and is one of the only later round OTs I've watched that looks like he can develop into NFL OT.

7.16 - Ralph Green III DT Indiana

Green adds depth at 1 tech behind Brockers. He is a huge defender with decent movement skills and can play up field in a 1 gap attacking defense.

Roster
Offense
Goff - Mannion

Gurley - Jones - Brown

Garcon Austin Henderson
Spruce Cooper Thomas

Higbee - Saubert - Hemingway - Harkey

Nsekhe - Robinson - Tretter - Asiata - Havenstein

Defense
5/7 tech 3 tech 1 tech
Hayes Donald Brockers
Westbrooks Easley Green III

SOLB MLB MLB WOLB
Simon Ogletree Barron Quinn
Jones Forrest Littleton Alexander

Moreau— Gaines - J Johnson — Joyner — T Johnson
McDonald — Alexander

 

[OldSchool]

Excellent work, I'll respond more in depth later but one thing confuses me. You have us trading down and picking up I think it was 3.15 but not picking there.

 

[StealYoGurley]

I like Nsekhe, but he is the rare 31 year old RFA since he played alot in the the lower leagues and has only 3 years on NFL experience. He played well enough for a decent tender, so I suspect he stays in Washington because he is not worth a draft pick.

I am not a tretter fan and I don't think he will cost that much and possibly wont even get a long term deal. He had offseason surgery after the season and has been consistently banged up, so tough to give him that sort of commitment when he may not be able to pass a physical in a month.

Seems a little expensive for Simon. I have no clue what Alexander will get since he had his breakout so late in his career so you could be spot on.

Also a huge Henderson fan love that pick kid is as dynamic as you will find outside of round for WRs in this draft

 

[8to12]

Excellent work, I'll respond more in depth later but one thing confuses me. You have us trading down and picking up I think it was 3.15 but not picking there.

He must have meant the pick @ 4.12
A 6 spot drop in the second would usually equate to a pick in the mid 4th rnd. But, he has included our late 6th, which doesn't have much value.

 

[codeman]

He must have meant the pick @ 4.12
A 6 spot drop in the second would usually equate to a pick in the mid 4th rnd. But, he has included our late 6th, which doesn't have much value.

Whoops. Yep the pick should be 4.12

I like Nsekhe, but he is the rare 31 year old RFA since he played alot in the the lower leagues and has only 3 years on NFL experience. He played well enough for a decent tender, so I suspect he stays in Washington because he is not worth a draft pick.

I am not a tretter fan and I don't think he will cost that much and possibly wont even get a long term deal. He had offseason surgery after the season and has been consistently banged up, so tough to give him that sort of commitment when he may not be able to pass a physical in a month.

Seems a little expensive for Simon. I have no clue what Alexander will get since he had his breakout so late in his career so you could be spot on.

Also a huge Henderson fan love that pick kid is as dynamic as you will find outside of round for WRs in this draft

Nsekhe is a backup tackle in Washington so I doubt he gets tendered for a pick. If he does then he's definitely staying a Redskin because no one is giving up a first or second for him.

Tretter has injury problems but he's a very good center when healthy. I'm still predicting he's gonna get paid big time this offseason. He might get 8+ mil a year.

Simon isn't a great pass rusher but he's a top linebacker against the run and holds his own in coverage. Wade loves playing linebackers and his skill set isn't really on the roster right now. I have no idea how the NFL values him but 5 mil a year isn't that expensive.

Henderson is my favourite draft prospect right now. Hopefully Snead is listening.

 

[TheDYVKX]

You grabbed a lot of my favorites in this one. Was thinking about making a mock and it'd have overlapped with yours, particularly Nsekhe, John Johnson and Aaron Jones. I really like John Johnson because of his versatility. Smooth fluid athlete that can play safety both single high with his range and coverage instincts and in the box with his physicality and tackling technique. He can play CB, man up in press or off coverage on small shifty WRs or hulking TEs. He's such a good prospect, surprised he hasn't gotten more attention.

I think Aaron Jones would be an ideal fit to replace Benny too. He's a natural receiver and he has outstanding power as a runner. Impressive patience at times as well on runs, and good burst. I think he will need to work on his pass protection, but Gurley has specifically pointed out that Skip Peete excels at coaching that part of the game, so it shouldn't be a problem.

Here's a couple gifs I was going to use:

 

[jrry32]

Interesting scenario. Very original. I have a few criticisms:
1. I think Garcon will get substantially more than that (my expectation is around $9 million per year)
2. A lot of Redskins fans think they'll tender Nysekhe at a second round level. But even if they don't, I think they'd match that offer. They have the cap room, and swing OTs are quite valuable.
3. I don't think Henderson compares to Corey Coleman or OBJ based on what I've seen. He's not that caliber of an athlete. I do think the Golden Taint comparison is a solid one. He's a great runner with the ball in his hands. My issue with the pick is that he's a sub-6'0" WR coming from an offense that runs a very limited route tree. Based on history, he probably won't produce until his midway through his second year in the NFL or the beginning of his third year in the NFL. I know some people are good with that. Are you okay with spending our first pick on a guy who likely won't do much as a rookie?

 

[8to12]

Nice work on your Mock. I like a lot of the players, some not so much. I think the 2nd Rnd is bit high for Henderson. And, I think Saubert, the TE, doesn't add anything to the roster that we already have in Higbee and Hemingway. We need solid blocking which Saubert does not excell at, especially if Kendricks is let go.
Last, I think you should have called your Mock, "the East/West Shrine Cookie Jar" ..... LOL

 

[TheDYVKX]

Interesting scenario. Very original. I have a few criticisms:
2. A lot of Redskins fans think they'll tender Nysekhe at a second round level. But even if they don't, I think they'd match that offer. They have the cap room, and swing OTs are quite valuable.

Yup. You might have to go up to 6-7 a year just to get to a point where they don't match.

I think they might not tender him at a 2nd round level if they think another team will be apprehensive of his lack of tape (what he has is good, it's just limited) and his age. If you don't have prior experience with him, it's tough to sign a guy you know very little about. And if another team does overlook that, they'd probably offer him a deal that Washington wouldn't mind matching anyway.

BUT McVay knows Nsekhe intimately and would be willing to let Snead/Demoff know that Nsekhe is the real deal and he won't be a bad signing (they also know him from his time here, but not as much as McVay obviously). So the Rams have an advantage and could up the price enough where Washington doesn't match because of that knowledge.

And if the Redskins were smart, they'd realize this. Even if 30 other teams aren't sure enough about him, a team like the Rams would totally snatch him up at a price they couldn't possibly match without hurting themselves with the Kirk Cousins deal looming. So they better tend him for that extra $1M.

 

[codeman]

You grabbed a lot of my favorites in this one. Was thinking about making a mock and it'd have overlapped with yours, particularly Nsekhe, John Johnson and Aaron Jones. I really like John Johnson because of his versatility. Smooth fluid athlete that can play safety both single high with his range and coverage instincts and in the box with his physicality and tackling technique. He can play CB, man up in press or off coverage on small shifty WRs or hulking TEs. He's such a good prospect, surprised he hasn't gotten more attention.

I think Aaron Jones would be an ideal fit to replace Benny too. He's a natural receiver and he has outstanding power as a runner. Impressive patience at times as well on runs, and good burst. I think he will need to work on his pass protection, but Gurley has specifically pointed out that Skip Peete excels at coaching that part of the game, so it shouldn't be a problem.

Here's a couple gifs I was going to use:

That catch is sick. He's a very talented runner and pass catcher. He kind of reminds me of James White.
I agree with everything you said about Josh Johnson, he can play on my team any day.

Interesting scenario. Very original. I have a few criticisms:
1. I think Garcon will get substantially more than that (my expectation is around $9 million per year)
2. A lot of Redskins fans think they'll tender Nysekhe at a second round level. But even if they don't, I think they'd match that offer. They have the cap room, and swing OTs are quite valuable.
3. I don't think Henderson compares to Corey Coleman or OBJ based on what I've seen. He's not that caliber of an athlete. I do think the Golden Taint comparison is a solid one. He's a great runner with the ball in his hands. My issue with the pick is that he's a sub-6'0" WR coming from an offense that runs a very limited route tree. Based on history, he probably won't produce until his midway through his second year in the NFL or the beginning of his third year in the NFL. I know some people are good with that. Are you okay with spending our first pick on a guy who likely won't do much as a rookie?

I wouldn't give Garcon more than 8 per, like 3 yr 24 million. I don't really know how the WR market will play out but the Rams have to get at least 1 WR in free agency, especially since it looks like Britt is gone.

The whole Nsekhe plan hinges on if he's tendered at a original pick. If the skins want him they hold all the power. My thinking was they have a ton of key players they need to sign and might want to save some money on his tender. They have Cousins, Baker, Garcon, Jackson, and Vernon Davis which is gonna add up.

I see Henderson as a top athlete and I wouldn't really call him raw. He's not going to put up Coleman numbers but he should run at least a 4.4 and have a nice combine. Coleman ran a 4.37 at the same size and jumped 40+ while Taint ran 4.42 and jumped 35. Henderson should be in the ballpark. If I went into the future and knew he was going to have a Golden Taint career path I wouldn't take him because his best football would be on a second contract. His route running is fairly technical for someone in the CUSA. I think he's much further along as a WR then Coleman who had 500 yards receiving in 10 games. If he puts up 500 yards in his rookie season and shows promise I am fine with that. I obviously believe he can be a 1000 yard WR or else I wouldn't select him in the 2nd round.

Nice work on your Mock. I like a lot of the players, some not so much. I think the 2nd Rnd is bit high for Henderson. And, I think Saubert, the TE, doesn't add anything to the roster that we already have in Higbee and Hemingway. We need solid blocking which Saubert does not excell at, especially if Kendricks is let go.
Last, I think you should have called your Mock, "the East/West Shrine Cookie Jar" ..... LOL

I'm all aboard the Henderson train he's my WR4 behind Davis, Williams, and Ross. I'm of the belief Henderson will be talked about more after the combine. I understand the Saubert thing but I think he has better lateral movement then Higbee. The draft has a lot of talented TEs and a move TE would help the offense a lot.
LOL about the shrine players. I like a few of them .

Yup. You might have to go up to 6-7 a year just to get to a point where they don't match.

I think they might not tender him at a 2nd round level if they think another team will be apprehensive of his lack of tape (what he has is good, it's just limited) and his age. If you don't have prior experience with him, it's tough to sign a guy you know very little about. And if another team does overlook that, they'd probably offer him a deal that Washington wouldn't mind matching anyway.

BUT McVay knows Nsekhe intimately and would be willing to let Snead/Demoff know that Nsekhe is the real deal and he won't be a bad signing (they also know him from his time here, but not as much as McVay obviously). So the Rams have an advantage and could up the price enough where Washington doesn't match because of that knowledge.

And if the Redskins were smart, they'd realize this. Even if 30 other teams aren't sure enough about him, a team like the Rams would totally snatch him up at a price they couldn't possibly match without hurting themselves with the Kirk Cousins deal looming. So they better tend him for that extra $1M.

Its all up to what the Redskins do. If they leave the door open (original tender) then McVay can say if he values him or not. It would be nice to solve the LT problem without overpaying but it is probably a pipe dream right now. Its a possibility I haven't seen discussed which is what mock drafts are all about.

 

[jrry32]

I see Henderson as a top athlete and I wouldn't really call him raw. He's not going to put up Coleman numbers but he should run at least a 4.4 and have a nice combine. Coleman ran a 4.37 at the same size and jumped 40+ while Taint ran 4.42 and jumped 35. Henderson should be in the ballpark. If I went into the future and knew he was going to have a Golden Taint career path I wouldn't take him because his best football would be on a second contract. His route running is fairly technical for someone in the CUSA. I think he's much further along as a WR then Coleman who had 500 yards receiving in 10 games. If he puts up 500 yards in his rookie season and shows promise I am fine with that. I obviously believe he can be a 1000 yard WR or else I wouldn't select him in the 2nd round.

I think he'd be doing well for himself if he runs a 4.4 40. I'm seeing more Stedman Bailey type speed than Corey Coleman type speed. I think he's more in the 4.47 to 4.52 range.

I also disagree that his route running is fairly technical. His route tree is just as limited as the one Coleman ran at Baylor (arguably moreso). Realistically, he may not produce until his third year. If he does produce early, it'll likely be in the slot. WRs under 6'0" typically take longer to adjust to the NFL, and his offense isn't doing him any favors.

Coleman made more of an early impact because he's such a freakish athlete (and because the Browns gave him opportunities out of desperation). Henderson isn't the same caliber of athlete as Coleman.

Like I said, I think the Golden Taint comparison is a sound one. My issue is that Taint didn't really produce until his third year. I could see Henderson taking that long too. You never know, though.

 

[codeman]

I think he'd be doing well for himself if he runs a 4.4 40. I'm seeing more Stedman Bailey type speed than Corey Coleman type speed. I think he's more in the 4.47 to 4.52 range.

I also disagree that his route running is fairly technical. His route tree is just as limited as the one Coleman ran at Baylor (arguably moreso). Realistically, he may not produce until his third year. If he does produce early, it'll likely be in the slot. WRs under 6'0" typically take longer to adjust to the NFL, and his offense isn't doing him any favors.

Coleman made more of an early impact because he's such a freakish athlete (and because the Browns gave him opportunities out of desperation). Henderson isn't the same caliber of athlete as Coleman.

Like I said, I think the Golden Taint comparison is a sound one. My issue is that Taint didn't really produce until his third year. I could see Henderson taking that long too. You never know, though.

I'm not gonna hate on a guy for the offense he is in. I care more about how he is running the routes and what is in his control. I see someone with better footwork, hand usage, and general understanding of positioning then Coleman who mostly used his natural athleticism to beat everyone.

Josh Norris put up a few gifs today of him
Showing his ability to catch in traffic and his hops
View: https://twitter.com/JoshNorris/status/832287925865951233

Showing is YAC ability

View: https://twitter.com/JoshNorris/status/832277675117015040

Navy bowl game. This is a well run route against press.

View: https://youtu.be/GnIaJ8MwL8M?t=2h1m25s

Same game during his last TD. Its cheeky but in one motion he pulls down the cb's hands and then goes up to catch it. He created space to haul in the TD.
View: https://youtu.be/GnIaJ8MwL8M?t=2h9m3s

I'm not anointing him but he can play and i doubt its gonna take 3 years for him to figure it out.

 

[jrry32]

Navy bowl game. This is a well run route against press.


I'm not anointing him but he can play and i doubt its gonna take 3 years for him to figure it out.

I don't see anything there showing advanced route running. His footwork on his release is poor, and he backs into his break. Which isn't problematic here because it's a stop route against press coverage. But it doesn't show technical route running. It shows his physical talent. But I don't see that as an issue. My issue is that his route tree is very limited, and he's not technically refined.

It's already a tough transition for sub-6'0" WRs.

I'm not gonna hate on a guy for the offense he is in. I care more about how he is running the routes and what is in his control.

It's not about hating or liking the player. It's about pointing out the realities of the system. You have to look for translatable skills. That's tough to do with how limited his college system was. It's difficult to assess how he runs routes when he doesn't run a varied route tree.

I see translatable skills in how he runs with the ball and attacks it in the air. But his film is lacking when it comes to route running. Based on what I've seen, he's a technically raw WR. His game lacks refinement at this point in his development.

In addition to my assessment, here's Lance Zierlein's assessment (one of a handful of media guys who I respect):
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/carlos-henderson?id=2558003
BOTTOM LINE
One-year superstar who delivered monster numbers at Louisiana Tech this year before leaving school early. Plays outside for the Bulldogs, but a little smaller than most teams will like. Henderson excels on catch-and-go throws and nine routes. He lacks the route running to come in and be an effective threat right away, but his kick return ability could get him early work.

 

[codeman]

I don't see anything there showing advanced route running. His footwork on his release is poor, and he backs into his break. Which isn't problematic here because it's a stop route against press coverage. But it doesn't show technical route running. It shows his physical talent. But I don't see that as an issue. My issue is that his route tree is very limited, and he's not technically refined.

It's already a tough transition for sub-6'0" WRs.



It's not about hating or liking the player. It's about pointing out the realities of the system. You have to look for translatable skills. That's tough to do with how limited his college system was. It's difficult to assess how he runs routes when he doesn't run a varied route tree.

I see translatable skills in how he runs with the ball and attacks it in the air. But his film is lacking when it comes to route running. Based on what I've seen, he's a technically raw WR. His game lacks refinement at this point in his development.

In addition to my assessment, here's Lance Zierlein's assessment (one of a handful of media guys who I respect):
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/carlos-henderson?id=2558003
BOTTOM LINE
One-year superstar who delivered monster numbers at Louisiana Tech this year before leaving school early. Plays outside for the Bulldogs, but a little smaller than most teams will like. Henderson excels on catch-and-go throws and nine routes. He lacks the route running to come in and be an effective threat right away, but his kick return ability could get him early work.

LOL I read the blurb and he compares him to Quinton Patton which is one of the laziest comparisons I've seen. He also has him as like his 20th receiver. I don't think were watching the same guy.

I'll let Matt Miller sum up how I feel about the route tree thing.

View: https://twitter.com/nfldraftscout/status/835192812958334976


The other thing is how many receivers in the league run a full route tree. Everyone on this site wants to give Alshon 10+ million a year and he runs like 4 routes.
After Davis and Williams there aren't any #1 receivers. Everyone else is a #2 or 3 guy. All the WRs have different strengths and need to be put in a position to succeed even though they might be ranked similarly in the draft. I'm curious what McVay wants. I value what Henderson offers, its just personal preference.

As far 6'0 receivers go I don't really consider size a skill set. It becomes a problem when someone is getting pushed around or the size of Tavon, but WRs the size of Henderson are arguably better adapted than other WR prototypes. The NFL has a size fetish and lets really talented players drop for no reason.

Of the 25 receivers that got 1000 yards this year at 6'0 or smaller and around 200 or smaller there was Hilton, Beckham, Brown, Cooks, Landry, Baldwin, Edelman, Taint, Garcon (is 210 pounds), Sanders, Wallace, and Jackson. That doesn't include WRs like John Brown, Diggs, and Maclin.

 

[jrry32]

LOL I read the blurb and he compares him to Quinton Patton which is one of the laziest comparisons I've seen. He also has him as like his 20th receiver. I don't think were watching the same guy.

I'll let Matt Miller sum up how I feel about the route tree thing.

View: https://twitter.com/nfldraftscout/status/835192812958334976

Matt Miller is one of the worst draft media guys out there. He follows the crowd. He's notorious for imitating Daniel Jeremiah.(although, I'm not sure what Jeremiah's stance on Henderson is)

Regardless, Miller is wrong. I used to believe the same thing, but Tavon has changed my perception on that. Tavon has the athleticism to be a stellar route runner, but there's much more to it than having the ability. Simply put, you're taking a massive risk by assuming he can effectively run routes he's never run. Especially when he's not a refined route runner on the routes he does run. You may be okay with that risk, but you can't pretend it doesn't exist.

The other thing is how many receivers in the league run a full route tree. Everyone on this site wants to give Alshon 10+ million a year and he runs like 4 routes.

This is dead wrong. Not to mention the fact that Alshon is a 6'3" WR who dominates at the catch point. Henderson is 5'11". Henderson is going to have to run a full route tree. Most NFL WRs run a full route tree. But most NFL OCs are intelligent enough to recognize what routes their WR runs well and what routes he doesn't. That will obviously affect usage.

Let me ask you this: How many sub-6'0" WRs can't run the full route tree effectively?

After Davis and Williams there aren't any #1 receivers. Everyone else is a #2 or 3 guy. All the WRs have different strengths and need to be put in a position to succeed even though they might be ranked similarly in the draft. I'm curious what McVay wants. I value what Henderson offers, its just personal preference.

The first point is debatable, but the theme here is accurate. It does depend on what McVay wants. My issue is that our second round pick is basically our first round pick. Do we really want to spend it on a guy who may not contribute for a couple of years?

As far 6'0 receivers go I don't really consider size a skill set. It becomes a problem when someone is getting pushed around or the size of Tavon, but WRs the size of Henderson are arguably better adapted than other WR prototypes. The NFL has a size fetish and lets really talented players drop for no reason.

Size is relevant to skill-set. It's also relevant to assess how quickly a player will make an impact.

Of the 25 receivers that got 1000 yards this year at 6'0 or smaller and around 200 or smaller there was Hilton, Beckham, Brown, Cooks, Landry, Baldwin, Edelman, Taint, Garcon (is 210 pounds), Sanders, Wallace, and Jackson. That doesn't include WRs like John Brown, Diggs, and Maclin.

Remove all the guys who are 6'0". Remove all the slot WRs. Who are you left with? T.Y. Hilton (4.3 speed), Beckham (freakish athlete), Cooks (4.3 speed), Brown (did not contribute as a rookie), Sanders (did not contribute as a rookie), and Jackson (4.3 speed). I think the point here is clear.

Are you okay spending our second round pick on a guy who likely won't make an impact this year? I'm not going to the lengths to say that Henderson won't pan out. I haven't decided yet which side of that coin I fall on (the reports I'm hearing about him are very worrisome). I'm asking you if you're willing to spend a second on a guy who may not make an impact this year. Based on my understanding of your mock, you're drafting him with the expectation that he's an immediate starter.

 

[codeman]

Regardless, Miller is wrong. I used to believe the same thing, but Tavon has changed my perception on that. Tavon has the athleticism to be a stellar route runner, but there's much more to it than having the ability. Simply put, you're taking a massive risk by assuming he can effectively run routes he's never run. Especially when he's not a refined route runner on the routes he does run. You may be okay with that risk, but you can't pretend it doesn't exist.

Having said all that he might be a 1000 yard receiver if he could catch the damn ball. Every single receiver comes into the NFL having to adjust and most of them come from gimmick/spread offenses where they look at the sideline for everything and don't run a full route tree. I'd argue a bigger challenge is adjusting to playing on both sides of the field for receivers that only stay on one side.

This is dead wrong. Not to mention the fact that Alshon is a 6'3" WR who dominates at the catch point. Henderson is 5'11". Henderson is going to have to run a full route tree. Most NFL WRs run a full route tree. But most NFL OCs are intelligent enough to recognize what routes their WR runs well and what routes he doesn't. That will obviously affect usage. Let me ask you this: How many sub-6'0" WRs can't run the full route tree effectively?

I'm exaggerating, but the point stands. There are very few receivers who run every route. They play to their strengths. Some receivers might be super good route runners but can't adjust to catches on the sideline and they won't run out breaking routes. Some can't win downfield and will run few vertical routes. Its just rare. Most players just have a role they play.

Are you okay spending our second round pick on a guy who likely won't make an impact this year? I'm not going to the lengths to say that Henderson won't pan out. I haven't decided yet which side of that coin I fall on (the reports I'm hearing about him are very worrisome). I'm asking you if you're willing to spend a second on a guy who may not make an impact this year. Based on my understanding of your mock, you're drafting him with the expectation that he's an immediate starter.

I think he has a bunch of trump cards (explosion, open field ability, catching in traffic, physicality) that will allow him to produce even if he is limited in the offense. He can probably still get 500 yards next year running just the routes he runs now. That would get him a 40 million contract .
I don't really understand the rush with next season. Where are the Rams going next year. This isn't a veteran team that has the window closing and needs immediate production. After watching Goff this year the idea we're in the playoff hunt and miss out because of a raw rookie WR is the opposite of a problem.

 

[jrry32]

I'm exaggerating, but the point stands. There are very few receivers who run every route. They play to their strengths. Some receivers might be super good route runners but can't adjust to catches on the sideline and they won't run out breaking routes. Some can't win downfield and will run few vertical routes. Its just rare. Most players just have a role they play.

I disagree. If you don't vary routes, defenders can cheat. If you're on the field, it means one of two things:
1. You can run the entire route tree; or
2. You're so gifted at something that you can win even when the defense knows to take it away.

Having a role you play doesn't mean you can't run other routes. A guy like Julian Edelman isn't a vertical threat, but you better bet he could run a skinny post if the play called for it. And you'd have to respect him on that route.

I think he has a bunch of trump cards (explosion, open field ability, catching in traffic, physicality) that will allow him to produce even if he is limited in the offense. He can probably still get 500 yards next year running just the routes he runs now. That would get him a 40 million contract .

I think you're being very optimistic. Golden Taint played in Charlie Weis's pro style offense at Notre Dame. He consistently won jump balls in college. He still only put up 609 yards and 3 TDs over his first two years in the NFL. Henderson isn't going to consistently get on the field unless he can run the entire route tree and read the defense. He's not a guy who will scary NFL teams vertically, he's not going to be Mossing NFL CBs right and left, and teams will quickly recognize it if most of his receptions come on screen passes.

Most of all, they're not going to risk hanging Goff out to dry unless they trust Henderson's ability to execute the offense. I don't think there's a chance that Henderson could put up 500 yards as a rookie running three routes.(because he's not an elite level vertical threat)

I don't really understand the rush with next season. Where are the Rams going next year. This isn't a veteran team that has the window closing and needs immediate production. After watching Goff this year the idea we're in the playoff hunt and miss out because of a raw rookie WR is the opposite of a problem.

That's understandable. If you're willing to spend the second round pick on a guy who likely won't produce as a rookie, that's your choice to make.(after all, you should always be drafting with the next 5 years in mind...not just the next 1) If you think the upside makes it worthwhile, I won't tell you that you're wrong.

However, I am not nearly as high on Henderson as you are...and as I said, the reports about his work habits and on-the-field mistakes scare the hell out of me.