The Fisher won't draft a QB theory

[Wisconsinram]

A number of posters have shared they don't feel Fisher will draft a QB this year because he has to "win now" or lose his job. I actually have a bit of a different take.

First, I don't believe there will be a significant variation in the production from the QB position this year between our current crop and any of the rookie qb's as historically rookie QB's take a few years to truly develop whether playing or not. However, having a highly thought of rookie with upside to develop would provide optimism for the future.

So related to Fisher's job security, he's obviously only in trouble if the team doesn't produce. I would think he would face far, far more scrutiny if he didn't produce AND didn't address the future of the most important position on the field than if he didn't produce, but had a QB in place that all could expect improvement from. In fact, I could even see a scenario where they move up for a qb, still fall short of the playoffs, and the "reasons" for falling short are still a lack of playmakers on O and a few holes on D; all of which would lead to giving Snisher one more year to fill them.

In short, I don't see a scenario where Snisher don't take an aggressive approach on draft day for a QB. If they don't and fail to produce, I see it as more likely to cost them their jobs; the complete opposite of the concept that he can't afford to take one this year as he has to "win now."

Certainly an interesting discussion on two very different points-of-view.

 

[CGI_Ram]

Yeah, it troubles me to think any draft strategy isn't focused on the long term as much as the short term.

I do find it interesting that Fisher hasn't been extended. I expected Kroenke to hitch his wagon to this guy for the long haul, despite the poor win-loss record his first 4yrs.

Nice first post, Wisconsinram.

 

[bubbaramfan]

Rams only have six picks in this draft. Moving up to draft a QB and lose one or two for a guy that wouldn't be in the top 20 in any other draft and then sit on the bench for a year when they already have a 3rd rounder from last year sitting on the bench doesn't make much sense. I'm not happy with the Rams QB situation, but resigned to that fact they're going to go with what they have. Keenum to start, find out what they have in Mannion and see if they can resurrect Foles career.

 

[Dodgersrf]

They know they need a qb. Despite all the accolades for Keenum.

The fact that they've stayed out of the QB FA market, leads me to believe they are going to address the position through the draft.

 

[snackdaddy]

I'm no quarterback evaluator. And I don't know how they rate the current prospects. But I have to wonder if anyone is a true franchise quarterback. And do they view anyone as such? I have a feeling they will stay put and if there's a defensive there at 15 Fisher just can't pass on that.

Fisher loves defensive studs and stud running backs. He has his running back. He has a line that is improving and some maulers there. And you can never have too many quality defensive players for a coach that loves the ground and pound defensive battles.

 

[-X-]

Fisher's first year is a mulligan year because of the complete rebuild, and he still went 7-8-1. Every single year afterward was marred by QB injury and poor QB play. Bradford was probably the only guy who's been through here the past 4 years who was an actual fit for the offense. But since he couldn't stay healthy, it was plug-n-play in 2013 and 2014. Not his fault, really. In 2015 they tried to make at least a lateral move by signing Nick Foles while simultaneously dumping the salary (and injury history) of Bradford. To double down, they got Keenum back and drafted Mannion. Through all of that, the team still stayed competitive.

Two ways to look at it.

1. If I'm Fisher (and Snead), I'm probably sick of having my fortunes decided by the lack of reliability and stability of the QB position. So I'm gonna address it early in the draft once and for all, even if it costs my first 3 picks and 2 future picks. Then I'll take measures to get him up to speed quickly so I can insert him in the offense sooner rather than later - like I did with Gurley. I trust my ability to evaluate talent, so I'm getting a QB who needs less of a learning curve. Boom. Done.

2. If I'm Fisher and Snead, I know I addressed this already by drafting Mannion and I'm okay with rolling with Keenum early unless or until he shows he can't (or doesn't) take advantage of opportunities to score points that show up on film. I'm also willing to help our QBs by drafting the best playmakers on offense I can find with our first 3 picks. Then I'm setting my sights on the draft and free agency in 2017, and telling all of my current QBs that's the plan, so that I can minimize my risk of complacency at the QB position going forward. I trust my ability to evaluate talent, so I know I'm okay with Sean at some point during this coming year (if necessary). Boom. Done.

 

[Ballhawk]

I think that its going to be #2 above and they will take BPA at 15 in the draft, then a reach in the second that will be out of football in a couple of years. Then hopefully they will get another sleeper at a need position late in the draft.

That is their pattern after all.

 

[Wisconsinram]

Thanks for sharing some really good thoughts, everyone.

Despite what my personal feelings are on what they should do or shouldn't do, I was really just trying to understand the idea that Fisher won't draft a QB because he has to win now; something I've read a number of times.

In terms of job security, I think Fisher is sunk if he doesn't produce this year and doesn't have a young, high-ceiling QB to groom. I don't think anyone would have the stomach for it (and many don't already). If he doesn't produce this year but has a young QB with potential, I see a far better chance of him being retained. That was the premise of my initial post.

For the record, I am excited to see what they have in Mannion and liked the pick. That said, I also understand the hit rate on QB's drafted in the 3rd round and after is very, very low in terms of being a starting qb in the NFL, much less a difference-maker.

I do trust the regime, though, as it's easily been the best we've had in the last 15 years (DV).

 

[-X-]

In terms of job security, I think Fisher is sunk if he doesn't produce this year and doesn't have a young, high-ceiling QB to groom.

I don't. That decision is Kroenke's, and I don't think he makes it based on whether or not they pick a QB this year.

 

[CGI_Ram]

Fisher's first year is a mulligan year because of the complete rebuild, and he still went 7-8-1. Every single year afterward was marred by QB injury and poor QB play. Bradford was probably the only guy who's been through here the past 4 years who was an actual fit for the offense. But since he couldn't stay healthy, it was plug-n-play in 2013 and 2014. Not his fault, really. In 2015 they tried to make at least a lateral move by signing Nick Foles while simultaneously dumping the salary (and injury history) of Bradford. To double down, they got Keenum back and drafted Mannion. Through all of that, the team still stayed competitive.

Two ways to look at it.

1. If I'm Fisher (and Snead), I'm probably sick of having my fortunes decided by the lack of reliability and stability of the QB position. So I'm gonna address it early in the draft once and for all, even if it costs my first 3 picks and 2 future picks. Then I'll take measures to get him up to speed quickly so I can insert him in the offense sooner rather than later - like I did with Gurley. I trust my ability to evaluate talent, so I'm getting a QB who needs less of a learning curve. Boom. Done.

2. If I'm Fisher and Snead, I know I addressed this already by drafting Mannion and I'm okay with rolling with Keenum early unless or until he shows he can't (or doesn't) take advantage of opportunities to score points that show up on film. I'm also willing to help our QBs by drafting the best playmakers on offense I can find with our first 3 picks. Then I'm setting my sights on the draft and free agency in 2017, and telling all of my current QBs that's the plan, so that I can minimize my risk of complacency at the QB position going forward. I trust my ability to evaluate talent, so I know I'm okay with Sean at some point during this coming year (if necessary). Boom. Done.

Door number 1, please.

 

[Picked4td]

The thing that worries me the most about the Rams not drafting a QB is that they gave Keenum a 1st round tender. I understand its to insure they wouldnt lose him, but if they only view him as a bridge QB til they get a rookie up to speed I'm not sure why they wouldnt prefer the 2nd round pick they would have gotten had some team actually been willing to give up a 2nd for keenum. I guess you could argue keeping Keenum was insurance in case they cant get a QB they like, but I still feel like it would have been better to have the 2nd and get a bridge QB another way.

 

[Loyal]

I remember similar thoughts about what Fisher "wouldn't do"....The result is mixed right now and we hope that Robinson will become the LT we all dream of, but wasn't the same said of Fisher not ever drafting an Olinemen in the first round?
Also, I remember in years past when Hard Knocks was mentioned, Fisher didn't want to do the show..I can't remember if ihe actually said it in a local St Louis interview or they speculated about the reason why after it, but the idea was that it would be a distraction. Yet, now the Rams ask for Hard Knocks? Expect Snead to do the dramatic in the 1st year of LA.

We are drafting a QB high, imo.

 

[jetplt67]

History shows that coaches who are in the last year of their contracts are not looking to the future, but a win now philosophy in an attempt to keep their jobs. That is why I am in the camp of "he won't draft a QB". Obviously I can't read the future or I would have won the lottery many times by now, my theory is based on historical actions of last year coaches.

However, the fact that he still has a job defies all the "logic" of history and pretty much throws my theory out the window. I am perplexed, wouldn't a Head Coach who's worried about his job be looking for immediate help at QB by attempting to pickup the best FA QB on the market so that he could win now? I think so but by all accounts, we looked at none of them. (Fitzpatrick would have been the best option IMO)

He could draft a QB in the first, though it would surprise me. If Goff or Wentz drop to us or close we should absolutely go get them, but the others are about even with Mannion so why bother. I won't be happy if he drafts any QB in the first other than the top 2, it will be another wasted pick IMO. (Cardale Jones is interesting to me in the 3rd or later)

Fisher may have a plan at QB that we haven't thought of and the draft should be pretty fun this year.

 

[Akrasian]

The thing that worries me the most about the Rams not drafting a QB is that they gave Keenum a 1st round tender. I understand its to insure they wouldnt lose him, but if they only view him as a bridge QB til they get a rookie up to speed I'm not sure why they wouldnt prefer the 2nd round pick they would have gotten had some team actually been willing to give up a 2nd for keenum. I guess you could argue keeping Keenum was insurance in case they cant get a QB they like, but I still feel like it would have been better to have the 2nd and get a bridge QB another way.

Well, it likely would have been the last pick in the second round, just a step above a high 3rd. The Rams would have had no good options at that point - seriously, Foles would likely have been the choice. Or some other overpriced both in salary and draft pick cost retread. Even if the Rams ended up slightly ahead after factoring in draft pick gained vs any given up in trade, the extra salary would have cost a player at some point, most likely. And then they'd have had a QB who didn't know the system unless it was Foles, who they had less faith in than Keenum - a lot less faith, in the case of Foles. This way they can focus on just getting a truly better QB than Keenum, instead of having to react in a panic.

And if Keenum looks okay this year - even if he is replaced ultimately - he should get the Rams a comp pick too. Keep in mind what has happened to QB free agent salaries, after all.

 

[Merlin]

Fish has been screwed and screwed and screwed by QBs during his time as a head coach. Only great teams he put together were when he had McNair, outside of that it was hopes and dreams. He came to the Rams because of Stan, yes, but also because of Bradford, who proceeds to screw him through his inability to stay healthy.

Honestly there is no effin way that Fisher doesn't know how important QB is. He knows. His big mistake was he passed on Bortles for whatever reason.

Either way though what matters here is how does he plan to fix it? He can move up, lose at least one of those round 2 picks and probably a futures, and take Goff. who projects to being capable of starting i.e. competing with Keenum and Mannion. Or he can go with another one of those guys who might be ready sooner by taking a guy like Hogan later, but the problem with those guys is they're non-round 1 picks for a reason.

Or he can simply get after a guy who is more raw and focus on the talent. Lynch provides value at 15 with enormous upside maybe the most in this class. Prescott will go round 2 but there's a good chance he makes it to 43. If he goes that route he might even take another QB too like Washington did. We might see Lynch at 15 then Doughty later. Or Prescott and Hogan, etc.

I think he and Snead are going to try to get Goff, but only if he gets past 3. Rams won't deal with the Chargers, and above that is too cost prohibitive (disclaimer: it wouldn't be to me, but we're talkin Fish and Snead here), so IMO 4 to 6 is the sweet spot. If that fails I think they go with Lynch at 15. If that fails I have no idea wtf they're gonna do but it's going to include a reach for a QB in round 2 or 3 which isn't ideal but it is what it is.

 

[lockdnram21]

I don't think the rams will trade up in top 5 but if one of the top 3 are there at 10 they might try and trade up to there. Or obviously if their there at 15. But I'm not sure if they would take on a project like Lynch

 

[fearsomefour]

I do not want the Rams to give away the farm for any of these QBs. I don't think they will want to give up enough to move up high enough to land either Goff or Weintz (spelling?).
If anything, depending on what happens with the WRs in the picks before 15, I would expect them to try and trade down.
If the Rams don't make a big move to get a guy in the top 5 picks I think this speaks to them being happy with how Mannion is coming along.
I would not go QB in this draft unless I could move up to 10 or so to grab one of the two guys I like. Outside of that I am taking a QB late in the draft and rolling with what we have.

 

[DaveFan'51]

A number of posters have shared they don't feel Fisher will draft a QB this year because he has to "win now" or lose his job. I actually have a bit of a different take.

First, I don't believe there will be a significant variation in the production from the QB position this year between our current crop and any of the rookie qb's as historically rookie QB's take a few years to truly develop whether playing or not. However, having a highly thought of rookie with upside to develop would provide optimism for the future.

So related to Fisher's job security, he's obviously only in trouble if the team doesn't produce. I would think he would face far, far more scrutiny if he didn't produce AND didn't address the future of the most important position on the field than if he didn't produce, but had a QB in place that all could expect improvement from. In fact, I could even see a scenario where they move up for a qb, still fall short of the playoffs, and the "reasons" for falling short are still a lack of playmakers on O and a few holes on D; all of which would lead to giving Snisher one more year to fill them.

In short, I don't see a scenario where Snisher don't take an aggressive approach on draft day for a QB. If they don't and fail to produce, I see it as more likely to cost them their jobs; the complete opposite of the concept that he can't afford to take one this year as he has to "win now."

Certainly an interesting discussion on two very different points-of-view.

IF they try and fail to make a trade-up, because there are no takers. All Snisher can do is do the best they can! As Log as they address the WR position 1st they can pull it off!! JMHO

 

[Wisconsinram]

I honestly expect the Rams to have a better year this year than last regardless of whether they draft a QB this year. That said, until they acquire a realistic long-term solution, they will be in QB purgatory. Not drafting one this year leaves us in the same position next....the same stable of mediocre options with limited upside. Outside of having a pretty remarkable year, I don't see Fisher making it into next year under that scenario. The fans won't have a stomach for it. He has to address it.

 

[PhillyRam]

One thing to remember is that if Lynch does impress at his pro day and draws interest from team like the Jets and maybe even Broncos, they know they have to jump in front of the Rams. So they may not be able to sit tight at #15 and get Lynch if they really like him and someone else does as well.