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http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2015/in...s-long-term-nfl-west-contender-2015-nfl-draft
The team with the most victories in the NFL over the past three seasons -- Seattle, with 42 -- is not about to crash; few teams are as stable or capable in terms of ownership, management, coaching, personnel and playing philosophy. That's why it came as a surprise to me earlier this offseason when an NFL personnel evaluator suggested over lunch that his roster model gave the St. Louis Rams a slight edge over Seattle in terms of overall depth.
"Better depth does not necessarily translate to more wins, because the quarterback can make such a difference," this evaluator said. "But what was clear by the end of last season was how Seattle's depth was falling off, and it cost them in the Super Bowl."
I didn't buy his thinking entirely -- after all, the Seahawks were 1 yard away from winning the Super Bowl -- but our conversation came to mind Thursday night when the Rams added Georgia running back Todd Gurley with the 10th overall pick in the draft.
The consensus that running backs have been devalued can obscure the fact that game-changing ones remain of great value, especially for teams without prolific passing attacks. Gurley, by all accounts, has that kind of game-changing ability. It's one reason St. Louis could pose the biggest threat to Seattle in the NFC West, especially long term.
Quarterback, defense and running game are three variables teams know they must manage in putting together a winning formula. There is no antidote for horrendous quarterback play. Since 2010, the 16 teams in the 10th percentile or worse for single-season Total QBR averaged 4.2 victories, with only one reaching 8-8. But if quarterback play merely lags below average, a team can still contend for double-digit victories with the right mix of defense and ground game. The Rams are in better position to do that with an elite runner on their roster.
Ten teams over the past five seasons finished 10-6 or better despite below-average quarterback play, measured by single-season Total QBR scores beneath the 50th percentile for that period. Seven of these 10 quarterback-deficient teams were exceptional on defense, ranking in the 80th percentile or higher in defensive expected points added. The other three ranked in the 64th, 81st and 99th percentiles for how frequently they ran the ball, one way to minimize their below-average quarterbacks. The one team of the 10 that was especially poor on defense -- Minnesota in 2012 -- possessed a game-changing back in Adrian Peterson.
The Rams are loaded on defense, particularly in their front seven. They improved from 28th in defensive EPA through seven games last season to third over their final nine. Coaches who studied the Rams thought the defense improved as coordinator Gregg Williams found better ways to utilize his personnel, de-emphasizing exotic concepts. There should be no seven-game adjustment period this coming season.
It's not yet clear how much the Rams have upgraded their quarterback situation, though. Newcomer Nick Foles was better for Philadelphia last season (62.2 QBR score) than any qualifying Rams quarterback has been in the nine-year history of the metric (Marc Bulger was at 57.3 in 2006).
"I do not see them anywhere near Seattle because of the quarterback," a veteran defensive coach said, "but if you are middling at quarterback or developing one, you do need that top-10 defense and running game to win. Beating Seattle is easier said than done, but the goal can be to get to nine wins."
A shaky offensive line in St. Louis could work against Foles, but that is where Gurley's addition can help the most. Peterson and Seattle's Marshawn Lynchhave proved that the very best backs can produce without effective blocking. Those two rank first and third, respectively, in yards per rush after contact over the past three seasons (minimum 500 carries, with Eddie Lacy ranking second). Gurley led qualifying Power 5 backs in that category last season, gaining 3.9 yards per rush after contact. For his career, Gurley gained 1,500 of his 3,285 yards after contact, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
The Rams do not plan to rush Gurley back from the torn ACL he suffered in mid-November, and it's conceivable he could even open the season on the physically unable to perform list. Seattle, meanwhile, should get a boost from tight end Jimmy Graham. The Seahawks also entered Day 2 of the draft with 11 remaining selections, most in the league. Their depth should improve further when Cassius Marsh, Kevin Pierre-Louis and Paul Richardson return from injuries.
Projecting too far into the future can be futile, but when 2016 rolls around, Seattle will be paying top dollar for quarterback Russell Wilson, hurting its financial flexibility. Lynch, who has operated on a year-to-year basis of late, will be 30 years old. Gurley and the Rams' defense should be peaking at that time, taking pressure off the quarterback.
"St. Louis has been a nine- or 10-win team that has struggled to win eight because of quarterback instability," the evaluator said. "Their offensive line is their big weakness, but that is an issue for Seattle as well. The Rams' defensive line is arguably the best in the league. I might like Seattle's linebackers better, but depth-wise, it is more of a push. Not everyone likes the Rams' safeties, but I do. Seattle is obviously better in the secondary.
"On offense, I like the Rams' receivers and think they are slightly underrated. If you were to compare their receiving corps with Seattle's, I don't know [whose is better]. Foles coming over was big because [Sam] Bradford was such an unknown, but quarterback and running back have been the big advantage for Seattle."
Wilson's presence alone gives Seattle an edge that could be enduring, but four of his nine worst games from a QBR standpoint were against St. Louis, including in Week 17 last season. The Rams led that game 6-0 at halftime, but they averaged 2.2 yards per carry and lost 20-6 after Shaun Hill threw a pick-six interception in the fourth quarter.
Gurley doesn't fix everything overnight for the Rams, but he does add a potentially significant component to a roster that ranks among the NFL's youngest and most intriguing.
The team with the most victories in the NFL over the past three seasons -- Seattle, with 42 -- is not about to crash; few teams are as stable or capable in terms of ownership, management, coaching, personnel and playing philosophy. That's why it came as a surprise to me earlier this offseason when an NFL personnel evaluator suggested over lunch that his roster model gave the St. Louis Rams a slight edge over Seattle in terms of overall depth.
"Better depth does not necessarily translate to more wins, because the quarterback can make such a difference," this evaluator said. "But what was clear by the end of last season was how Seattle's depth was falling off, and it cost them in the Super Bowl."
I didn't buy his thinking entirely -- after all, the Seahawks were 1 yard away from winning the Super Bowl -- but our conversation came to mind Thursday night when the Rams added Georgia running back Todd Gurley with the 10th overall pick in the draft.
The consensus that running backs have been devalued can obscure the fact that game-changing ones remain of great value, especially for teams without prolific passing attacks. Gurley, by all accounts, has that kind of game-changing ability. It's one reason St. Louis could pose the biggest threat to Seattle in the NFC West, especially long term.
Quarterback, defense and running game are three variables teams know they must manage in putting together a winning formula. There is no antidote for horrendous quarterback play. Since 2010, the 16 teams in the 10th percentile or worse for single-season Total QBR averaged 4.2 victories, with only one reaching 8-8. But if quarterback play merely lags below average, a team can still contend for double-digit victories with the right mix of defense and ground game. The Rams are in better position to do that with an elite runner on their roster.
Ten teams over the past five seasons finished 10-6 or better despite below-average quarterback play, measured by single-season Total QBR scores beneath the 50th percentile for that period. Seven of these 10 quarterback-deficient teams were exceptional on defense, ranking in the 80th percentile or higher in defensive expected points added. The other three ranked in the 64th, 81st and 99th percentiles for how frequently they ran the ball, one way to minimize their below-average quarterbacks. The one team of the 10 that was especially poor on defense -- Minnesota in 2012 -- possessed a game-changing back in Adrian Peterson.
The Rams are loaded on defense, particularly in their front seven. They improved from 28th in defensive EPA through seven games last season to third over their final nine. Coaches who studied the Rams thought the defense improved as coordinator Gregg Williams found better ways to utilize his personnel, de-emphasizing exotic concepts. There should be no seven-game adjustment period this coming season.
It's not yet clear how much the Rams have upgraded their quarterback situation, though. Newcomer Nick Foles was better for Philadelphia last season (62.2 QBR score) than any qualifying Rams quarterback has been in the nine-year history of the metric (Marc Bulger was at 57.3 in 2006).
"I do not see them anywhere near Seattle because of the quarterback," a veteran defensive coach said, "but if you are middling at quarterback or developing one, you do need that top-10 defense and running game to win. Beating Seattle is easier said than done, but the goal can be to get to nine wins."
A shaky offensive line in St. Louis could work against Foles, but that is where Gurley's addition can help the most. Peterson and Seattle's Marshawn Lynchhave proved that the very best backs can produce without effective blocking. Those two rank first and third, respectively, in yards per rush after contact over the past three seasons (minimum 500 carries, with Eddie Lacy ranking second). Gurley led qualifying Power 5 backs in that category last season, gaining 3.9 yards per rush after contact. For his career, Gurley gained 1,500 of his 3,285 yards after contact, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
The Rams do not plan to rush Gurley back from the torn ACL he suffered in mid-November, and it's conceivable he could even open the season on the physically unable to perform list. Seattle, meanwhile, should get a boost from tight end Jimmy Graham. The Seahawks also entered Day 2 of the draft with 11 remaining selections, most in the league. Their depth should improve further when Cassius Marsh, Kevin Pierre-Louis and Paul Richardson return from injuries.
Projecting too far into the future can be futile, but when 2016 rolls around, Seattle will be paying top dollar for quarterback Russell Wilson, hurting its financial flexibility. Lynch, who has operated on a year-to-year basis of late, will be 30 years old. Gurley and the Rams' defense should be peaking at that time, taking pressure off the quarterback.
"St. Louis has been a nine- or 10-win team that has struggled to win eight because of quarterback instability," the evaluator said. "Their offensive line is their big weakness, but that is an issue for Seattle as well. The Rams' defensive line is arguably the best in the league. I might like Seattle's linebackers better, but depth-wise, it is more of a push. Not everyone likes the Rams' safeties, but I do. Seattle is obviously better in the secondary.
"On offense, I like the Rams' receivers and think they are slightly underrated. If you were to compare their receiving corps with Seattle's, I don't know [whose is better]. Foles coming over was big because [Sam] Bradford was such an unknown, but quarterback and running back have been the big advantage for Seattle."
Wilson's presence alone gives Seattle an edge that could be enduring, but four of his nine worst games from a QBR standpoint were against St. Louis, including in Week 17 last season. The Rams led that game 6-0 at halftime, but they averaged 2.2 yards per carry and lost 20-6 after Shaun Hill threw a pick-six interception in the fourth quarter.
Gurley doesn't fix everything overnight for the Rams, but he does add a potentially significant component to a roster that ranks among the NFL's youngest and most intriguing.
