SNF: Patriots at Ravens

[CGI_Ram]

Sunday Night Football: New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens Prediction and Preview

Arguably the two top teams in the AFC face off Sunday night when the New England Patriots take on the Baltimore Ravens in "Sunday Night Football." Another

athlonsports.com

Sunday Night Football: New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens
By Tom Bowles

Arguably the two top teams in the AFC face off Sunday night when the New England Patriots take on the Baltimore Ravens in "Sunday Night Football." Another chapter will be added to the rich history between the two teams who have larger aspirations than simply winning their division.

Both have commanding leads in the AFC East and AFC North, respectively, and are angling for the conference’s top seed. A win by the Patriots Sunday night would essentially clinch that honor for them; they’d have a minimum 2.5-game lead (plus tiebreakers) on every AFC team with just seven games left to play. The second-half schedule is harder for the Pats, but it also includes games against the winless Bengals and Dolphins; clinching home-field advantage would seem inevitable.

On the other hand, a Ravens win could change the entire course of the AFC. They’d be 6-2, just 1.5 games behind the Patriots, and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. Their second-half schedule is also difficult, including a game against the NFL’s other undefeated team (49ers). But could you imagine the confidence they’d have? This franchise would have landed a punch one decade after coming oh-so-close to ending the Pats’ perfect NFL regular season in 2007. And the victory guarantees them a minimum two-game lead in a division in which they’ve established firm control.

That 2007 game was one for the ages, a 27-24 Patriots win that wasn’t decided until some Tom Brady touchdown magic with 44 seconds remaining. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson was just 10 years old at the time; now he’ll match wits with Brady in a battle of quarterbacking generations. Can Jackson run circles around the most dominant defense in the NFL?

The Ravens have been one of the few to go toe-to-toe with the Patriots in the postseason. Their 2-2 record this century is like going 50-5 compared to the rest of the teams in the conference. Expect the home crowd to be geared up and this game to go down to the wire.

New England at Baltimore

Kickoff: Sunday, Nov. 3 at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV Channel: NBC
Spread: New England -3

Three Things To Watch

1: Is Lamar Jackson a better quarterback than Tom Brady right now?

No. But the answer is far closer than some might think.

Looking at strictly passing numbers, Jackson has just 1,650 passing yards to Brady’s 2,251. But add in Jackson’s 576 rushing yards compared to Brady’s three, and the totals even out. Jackson has so many yards on the ground he’s sixth in the AFC in rushing. That’s right; dynamic young running backs like Phillip Lindsay, Sony Michel, and James Conner trail him on the stat sheet. Michael Vick’s NFL record 1,039 rush yards as a quarterback appears to be in serious jeopardy.

Brady has a slightly better QB rating than Jackson (95.0 to 94.1). But Brady, while steady under center, has been little more than a game manager the past three weeks. He’s thrown just three touchdown passes in that span, as the dominant defense has provided a cushion where aggressive quarterback play just isn’t needed.

To be fair, Jackson has struggled in the air over the same stretch, throwing for just one touchdown and three interceptions. Last week, he was 9-for-20 against the Seahawks in a performance that raised questions about his throwing accuracy. But does it really matter when he’s destroying defenses on the run? The last three games have showcased those legs to the tune of 338 yards and two touchdowns. His 7.7 yards per carry average makes him a dynamic threat capable of unleashing big plays at any moment.

The question will be, of course, whether Brady can respond in kind. His top receiver, Julian Edelman, remains healthy, but the search for other weapons has been a season-long quest. The route of the troubled receiver with talent hasn’t worked out. Antonio Brown came and went; Josh Gordon was released off injured reserve this week. There needs to be a second player who emerges to allow Brady to open up the field.

Could that be running back James White? He’s caught at least four passes in five straight games. How about recent acquisition Mohamed Sanu? He broke into the offense with two catches last week but didn’t feel like a game-changer... yet. And Phillip Dorsett, still recovering from injuries, has yet to replicate his two-touchdown performance in the season opener.

Someone in that group needs to step up to allow Brady to work his own magic. Without it? Players like Jackson, especially with their ability to run at any moment, are on the verge of eclipsing Brady’s play and providing a better weapon for their teams.

2: Can the Ravens crack the Patriots' defense?

The Patriots defense, halfway through the season, continues to put up historic numbers. Baker Mayfield was the latest quarterback to fall victim last week; he threw for less than 200 yards, giving up the ball once while running back Nick Chubb's pair of fumbles limited an undisciplined Browns team.

Overall, the Patriots have 25 takeaways. That’s six more than any other team in the NFL. They’re allowing just 7.6 points per game, leading the league in total yards allowed and ranking second against the pass. That success is key considering Jackson’s still developing as a passer; stripping him of that option, or better yet forcing a few key interceptions, would swing the game.

And that’s what the Patriots defense has done. Two weeks ago, they had the Jets’ Sam Darnold seeing ghosts on the sideline after four interceptions. Their +17 margin is better than the total takeaways of all but one NFL team (Steelers). So the Ravens will need to take care of the football. To their credit, their seven giveaways are tied for the third-fewest in the NFL, impressive considering they start a 22-year-old quarterback in his second season.

Ironically, it’s typically the Ravens defense that’s causing havoc. But this unit is just 26th against the pass, likely to give Brady opportunities Sunday, while allowing 22.3 points per game. Chances are, the Patriots will match that 22 points which means the Ravens offense has to find a way to break through. Remember, no team has scored more than 14 points against the Patriots all season.

3: A Quick look at special teams

No matter how bad they’ve been offensively through the years, the Ravens have always had a secret weapon: Justin Tucker. The three-time first-team All-Pro has been one of the NFL’s best kickers for nearly a decade, and 2019 has been no exception. This year, he’s perfect on field goals (16-of-16) as well as extra points in what’s been a down year for his position overall. From Cody Parkey’s miss for the Bears in January’s NFC Wild Card game to future Hall of Famer Adam Vinatieri's struggles with the Colts this season, kickers can’t seem to avoid the negative spotlight.

Those problems have made their way over to the Patriots. Longtime dependable kicker Stephen Gostkowski is out for the year after suffering a left hip injury. Replacement Mike Nugent was unimpressive, missing three field goals and an extra point in four games before being cut this week. Now, the Patriots turn to former Jets kicker Nick Folk, a 34-year-old who last played for the now-defunct Arizona Hotshots of the Alliance of American Football. He was 12-for-16 on field goal attempts there, hitting one for 55 yards, but remains a shaky selection heading into Sunday’s contest.

Folk’s last game in the NFL was against the Patriots in a 2017 "Monday Night Football" game. He missed three field goals and an extra point before being released by the Buccaneers later that week. And now that’s who this team is depending on in late-game situations? The Patriots special-teams unit hasn’t really been tested because they haven’t been involved in a close game late. But if the Ravens can keep the score in the ballpark, it’s easily the biggest weakness they can exploit.

Final Analysis

The Ravens will be jazzed up for a game they feel they can win with Lamar Jackson under center. The Patriots’ undefeated season is also softer than some might realize; seven of their eight opponents don’t have a winning record. There’s an opening here for the Ravens to break through.

But the Patriots, in the end, should always get the benefit of the doubt with Tom Brady in big games. The spread seems dead-on in a game that has the potential to tilt either way in the fourth quarter.

Prediction: New England 24, Baltimore 21

 

[CGI_Ram]

Patriots at Ravens: Odds, prediction, key matchups for Week 9 'Sunday Night Football'

How will the Patriots defense handle its toughest test so far against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens?

www.cbssports.com

Patriots at Ravens

The New England Patriots are 8-0 and look a whole lot like the best team in football. They're 4-0 at home, 4-0 on the road, 4-0 in the division, and 6-0 in the conference. They've outscored their opponents by 189 points, which is the third-most through eight games in NFL history.

This week's opponent is the Baltimore Ravens, who are by far the best team the Pats will have faced this season. Lamar Jackson and his 5-2 squad welcome the Patriots to town on Sunday night, and provide the greatest and most interesting test yet for Bill Belichick's defense.

Let's break things down.

When the Patriots have the ball

The Patriots are the highest-scoring team in the NFL at 31.3 points per game ... but they have gotten six touchdowns and a safety from their defense. Accounting only for offensive points per game, the Patriots drop down to fifth in the NFL. They're 16th in yards per game, though, and 15th in Football Outsiders' offensive DVOA. They've been only average at converting third downs (39.8 percent, 18th in the NFL) and considerably below-average at converting in the red zone (50.0 percent, 23rd in the league).

Will Brinson, Pete Prisco and R.J. White broke down all the angles and picks you need to know for every game on Friday's Pick Six Podcast. Give it a listen below, and be sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform:

A decent amount of their offenses success has stemmed from the fact that they just keep being given short fields to work with. The average New England drive has begun on the 33.7-yard line, the second-best starting field position in the league, and they have started 18 drives in opposition territory. That's more than two drives per game! Folks, it's nuts.

The advantageous situations they've been gifted have somewhat masked what has been a surprisingly average offense.

Sony Michel is having one of the least efficient rushing seasons you'll ever see. Michel's 140 carries have gained just 464 yards. There have been 662 instances of a player receiving at least 140 carries in a season since 2000, and among that group of seasons, Michel's 3.30 yards per carry average ranks 630th.

Tom Brady's yards per attempt average is at its lowest since 2014, his passer rating, completion percentage, and touchdown rate are at their lowest since 2013, and despite being on pace to throw 618 passes (fourth-most of his career) he is on pace for only 26 touchdown passes, which would be the sixth-fewest of his career. The Pats have cycled through a few receivers that are no longer with the team (Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon) and have not had a threat at tight end for most of the year, but Brady has maintained his usual chemistry with James White (6.0 catches, 51.1 yards per game) and Julian Edelman (6.6-71.8), and he has turned Phillip Dorsett into a weapon.

The issues with Brady's performance have been more situational. On third downs, he is just 43 of 82 (52.4 percent) for 599 yards (7.3 per attempts), four touchdowns, two picks, and a an 82.3 passer rating. He's 13 of 23 inside the 10-yard line but only six of those 13 completions have resulted in scores. Instead of annihilating blitzes, he has been merely good against them (95.6 passer rating), and the Patriots' play-action game has been largely ineffective (89.0 rating).

Some of the relative struggles are due to the patchwork offensive line, but some are that Brady has simply not been at this best quite yet. There's hope that adding Mohamed Sanu as an additional threat over the middle will re-create the kind of offense the Pats have run over the past few years, and we'll see how that works out over the next few weeks.

The Baltimore pass defense has not been all that imposing this season, but the team was without Jimmy Smith for several weeks and only got Marcus Peters a couple games ago. Marlon Humphrey has been a shutdown shadow corner all year, and there's no reason to expect that he won't be exactly that the rest of the way. He's the rare shadow guy who has also bumped down into the slot, and it would not be a surprise if he were assigned to follow Julian Edelman all night. Peters seems likely to track Phillip Dorsett because he is the speed guy on the perimeter and the least technically-refined of the Pats wideouts, which helps Peters, who is susceptible to double moves. That would leave Smith (and/or Brandon Carr) on Sanu.

When the Ravens have the ball

Before we get to what should be perhaps the most intriguing tactical matchup of the season, let's just quickly run through the numbers for the New England defense: first yards per game (234.0), first in points per game (7.6), first in yards per play (4.1), first in . yards per drive (17.7), first in points per drive (0.38), first in third down conversion rate (15.6 percent), first in red-zone conversion rate (14.3 percent), second in pass DVOA, eighth in rush DVOA, and first in overall defensive DVOA (the single best defense since 1989).

Spare me the lecture about how they haven't played anybody. At least six other teams have gotten to play each of New England's opponents, too, and nobody else is doing this. Without a doubt, though, this Ravens offense presents the greatest test this defense has faced so far this year.

Lamar Jackson has fully broken out as one of the small handful of most dynamic players in the league, and he tests defenses in ways no other player can. Jackson is 10th in the NFL in rushing yards at this moment. To put things in perspective, he has 203 more rushing yards (576) than Alvin Kamara (373) in only one more game. He's gaining 6.9 yards per carry, which is essentially unheard of for a high-volume rusher. Of course, part of the reason he's able to gain so many yards on his runs is because he's a quarterback and defenses have to respect the pass, especially given his improvement through the air this season compared to last.

At this point we all know that Bill Belichick's defensive strategy is not to accentuate your weaknesses, but to recognize what you do best, take it away, and make you beat him left-handed. His strategy for how to deal with Jackson cannot be like his strategy to deal with any other player, simply because Jackson himself is not like any other player. There are a few different ways to deal with a player like this, and none of them are all that attractive:

• Treat him like any other quarterback. Don't do this! He will run all over the field and then just when you come up to stop the run he will hit Hollywood Brown over the top.
• Play man coverage and spy him with a linebacker or safety. Again, don't do this! Jackson is faster than your linebackers and safeties and he will beat them to wherever he wants to go every single time.
• Load up on the line of scrimmage to take away the run. This was a significantly more attractive option last season when Jackson largely struggled to consistently make throws. Now that he's completing 63 percent of his passes at 7.7 yards per attempt, it's a less than ideal strategy.
• Sit back in soft zones, conceding short passes and short runs in an effort to eliminate big plays and make him dink and dunk all the way down the field. This seems like the best of a bunch of bad options, even though it concedes that you will essentially not be able to stop him from running the ball. You just want to limit those gains to four or five yards rather than 10 or 20. Jackson has carried the ball 83 times this season, with 19 of those carries gaining double-digit yards. That's what you want to avoid.

The interesting thing about that final strategy is that it involves a big shift away from what the Pats have done for most of this season. They have played more man coverage than almost any team in the NFL, and they have been extremely aggressive at all levels. But the Patriots are a game-plan team and a game-plan defense, and they have to game-plan specifically for Jackson. Shifting away from what they've done throughout this season can be an asset instead of a liability, if the Ravens themselves game-plan for what they have seen from the Pats this year.

Baltimore has been teasing since the offseason that they've got some offensive innovations that have the potential change the way offense is played. We haven't really seen them so far this year, and this would be a heck of a time to break them out.

Perhaps they could include involving rookie running back Justice Hill in the game-plan more often, since one of the only things we haven't seen the Ravens do this season is throw the ball to their running backs, and he is easily the most dynamic of the Ravens' trio of backs. The best way to beat the Patriots so far this year, though, has been to run straight downhill with a power back. Think Nick Chubb last week and Frank Gore back in Week 4. Almost nothing else has worked agains them. So perhaps this could be a good game for the Ravens to break out creative ways to get Mark Ingram going again. He hasn't hit 100 yards since Week 3, and has had either 12 or 13 carries in three of the past four games.

Innovations in the pass game could be difficult to execute, just because the combination of New England's pass rush and deep coverage is so good. Stephon Gilmore seems likely to shadow Marquise Brown, while the McCourtys, Patrick Chung, Jonathan Jones, Jamie Collins, and Dont'a Hightower all end up on Mark Andrews at some time or another. The Ravens offensive line will face great challenges keeping the pressure out of Jackson's face, which could affect his ability to hit the deep shots that create the ceiling for this offense.

Prediction: Patriots 26, Ravens 20

 

[CGI_Ram]

ROD SportsBook:

2019 Week 9 New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens

Sun, Nov 3 2019, 20:20 EST, NBC

ramsondemand.com

 

[RhodyRams]

Remember that this game is being used for our Predict The Score contest so get your guesses in.

Predict The Score- Special Bye Week Edition

yeah so the Rams are on a bye week, players are getting healed up and our livers are in mid-season form. So does that mean we have to take a break from the favorite contest on the interwebz?...HELL NOES I SAY Introducing the Special Edition PTS Contest... during the Rams bye week we may not...

ramsondemand.com

 

[RhodyRams]

Thanks @CGI_Ram for the linkage

 

[jap]

This should be a very interesting scrum!

 

[den-the-coach]

Now the Raven, never flitting, still is sitting, still is sitting
On the pallid bust of Pallas just above my chamber door;
And his eyes have all the seeming of a demon's that is dreaming,
And the lamplight o'er him streaming throws his shadow on the floor;
And my soul from out that shadow that lies floating on the floor
Will be lifted- nevermore!

 

[LARAMSinFeb.]

This year's Pats shed a lot of light on our SB. We were witnessing the beginnings of a stifling defense.

 

[nighttrain]

saw a little bird with a yellow bill, i lured it in with crumbs of bread~
then i crushed it' f##kin head
Bill

 

[Mojo Ram]

Another road trip for the Chowder's. 370 grueling miles from BOS to BAL.

This friggin team. They never travel further than a stones throw and when they do they go to Miami.

 

[Liberator]

Should be a hell of a game! Let's go Ravens.

 

[OldSchool]

I feel dirty rooting for the Ravens, gonna have to drink to get through this one.

 

[Legatron4]

Baltimore looks good so far. But we will see how long it lasts.

 

[sjm1582002]

3 TE's and outmuscling the Patsies.

I love it.

Make them hurt.

 

[RamsInfiniti]

Look at that - NE actually plays a good team, and they, well, look like garbage.

The only really decent team they've played, Buffalo, almost beat them.

 

[RamsFanCK]

Cheats are the biggest paper tigers ever this season lol. Lovin it!

 

[OldSchool]

We replace Blythe with some talent and I think our OLine will be fine. Somebody competent next to Hav makes him better.

 

[LA_vision]

Thank you Ravens

 

[SteezyEndo]

I’m a 3hr fan of the Ravens. I’d stay on point though, Belicheat has his ways to win a fight without fighting.

 

[Ramhusker]

And just like that. The Patriots will be back in the game