- Joined
- Jun 20, 2010
- Messages
- 35,576
- Name
- The Dude
[wrapimg=left]http://a1.espncdn.com/prod/assets/insider/in_bug_56.png[/wrapimg]Joyner By KC Joyner
ESPN Insider
Archive
Wide receivers have always been a valued commodity, but with the NFL entering what is very likely going to be the decade of the pass, top-notch pass catchers are going to be an even more essential element of successful team building.
The good news for aspiring franchises is that this year's free-agent wide receiver crop could be chock full of quality aerial targets. In fact, this may be as good a free-agent class for wide receivers as we've ever seen.
But not all of these targets were created equal. To help navigate this field, we review seven potential free-agent wideouts.
Each review details the player's age and size along with three key metrics: yards per attempt (YPA); vertical yards per attempt (VYPA), which measures productivity on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield; and stretch vertical yards per attempt (SVYPA), which measures productivity on aerials thrown 20 or more yards.
Dwayne Bowe
Birthdate: Sept. 21, 1984 (27 years old)
Height/weight: 6-2, 221 pounds
YPA: 8.8
VYPA: 11.7
SVYPA: 8.4
Pros: Matt Cassel has a history of being one of the least productive vertical passers in the NFL and yet Bowe has been able to post double-digit VYPA totals with him in consecutive seasons. He may be a big reason for what little production Cassel had on deeper throws.
Cons: Bowe may have a good VYPA total, but his 8.4 SVYPA is the lowest of any wideout in this comparison. His SVYPA total is also lower than the 10.1 SVYPA posted by Cassel this past season, so that says he was in some ways less productive than his Chiefs teammates in this category. He got down the field, but not deep.
Bottom line: Bowe may have stretch vertical limitations, but he should be able to upgrade the short and medium pass game of any team.
Marques Colston
Birthdate: June 5, 1983 (28 years old)
Height/weight: 6-4, 225 pounds
YPA: 11.1
VYPA: 14.1
SVYPA: 21.8
Pros: Colston posted the highest YPA, VYPA and SVYPA of any wide receiver in this group. He is also the second-tallest and second-heaviest player in this analysis, so he can present defenses with matchup nightmares when utilized properly, and the Saints have used him all over the field.
Cons: Everyone in the New Orleans' offense posted great numbers last season, so some of his statistical edge may have to be taken with a grain of salt. His SVYPA numbers were tallied on only 12 targets, which is the easily the lowest total of any wideout in this group, meaning he isn't quite the vertical stretch threat some might assume he is.
Bottom line: Colston has the potential to be the best possession receiver in the NFL, but his productivity could drop off if he joins a team with less creative playcalling than he received with the Saints.
DeSean Jackson
Birthdate: Dec. 1, 1986 (25 years old)
Height/weight: 5-10, 175 pounds
YPA: 10.3
VYPA: 12.9
SVYPA: 16.0
Pros: Jackson was one of only three wideouts in this comparison to post double-digit totals in each of the YPA categories. He is the youngest player in this group.
Cons: Jackson's 2011 numbers pale in comparison to his 2010 numbers in those same categories (11.4 YPA, 15.3 VYPA, 21.7 SVYPA). His highest single-season reception total is 62, and when that is combined with the fact that he is the shortest and smallest player in this group, it means he may not be durable enough to serve as a No. 1 wideout. (Though it should be said his durability thus far isn't in question.)
Bottom line: There is a reason the Eagles have shown some hesitation in paying him a big contract and why they may be considering either putting a franchise tag on or trading Jackson. He has more big-dollar bust potential than any other wide receiver in this year's field.
Vincent Jackson
Birthdate: Jan. 14, 1983 (29 years old)
Height/weight: 6-5, 230 pounds
YPA: 10.7
VYPA: 12.3
SVYPA: 12.9
Pros: Jackson's great numbers are not an anomaly for him, as he has posted similar totals in the past. He is the tallest and heaviest player in this analysis.
Cons: Jackson's highest single-season pass reception total is 68. He also tallied less than 50 yards receiving in eight of his 16 games last season. The latter brings up consistency issues and the former offers some concern about his ability to deal with a larger target workload. He is the second-oldest player of this group.
Bottom line: Jackson might be biggest risk-reward wideout in this year's free-agent class.
Steve Johnson
Birthdate: July 22, 1986 (25 years old)
Height/weight: 6-2, 210 pounds
YPA: 8.0
VYPA: 11.6
SVYPA: 14.8
Pros: Johnson posted quality VYPA and SVYPA totals last year despite being maybe the only good pass catcher on the Bills' roster. He is the second-youngest player in this comparison and his height/weight combination fares well against the group.
Cons: Eighty-one of Johnson's 129 targets were short passes, so he may be more of a dink/dunk receiver than a true vertical threat. What's worse, his 5.7 short pass YPA was the lowest of any member of this group, so he may have limitations at that depth level. That said, Chan Gailey's offense is built around the short pass, so he can't fully be blamed for doing what he's asked.
Bottom line: Johnson wants to be paid like a true No. 1 wideout but there are too many facets of his game that say he has a production ceiling that doesn't justify that type of expenditure.
Brandon Lloyd
Birthdate: July 5, 1981 (30 years old)
Height/weight: 6-0, 188 pounds
YPA: 7.3
VYPA: 8.2
SVYPA: 11.3
Pros: In 2010, Lloyd was the only wideout in the NFL to rack up 100 vertical targets. His 1,403 vertical receiving yards that season easily led the league in that category, so he has shown the ability to be an elite downfield threat.
Cons: He has only produced that level of top-notch vertical productivity in an offense directed by Josh McDaniels, so unless he ends up signing with New England, this is big negative for him. Lloyd is by far the oldest member of this group and has a history of durability issues.
Bottom line: Lloyd has the highest volume of notable negatives in this comparison.
Mario Manningham
Birthdate: June 6, 1986 (25 years old)
Height/weight: 6-0, 185 pounds
YPA: 8.0
VYPA: 9.0
SVYPA: 8.9
Pros: Manningham's dominant postseason production isn't entirely an anomaly, as he had double-digit totals in each of the YPA categories in 2010. He is within a month and a half of being the second-youngest player in this comparison.
Cons: He was the only wideout in this group to not post a double-digit total in at least one of the YPA categories, and his 185-pound frame makes him the second-lightest wideout in this comparison.
Bottom line: Manningham's postseason performance, age and 2010 numbers show that he may have the most upside of any wideout in this group. Depending on how his postseason is viewed by teams in the free-agent market, he could end up as the best value acquisition wide receiver.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and his web site. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is currently available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."
ESPN Insider
Archive
Wide receivers have always been a valued commodity, but with the NFL entering what is very likely going to be the decade of the pass, top-notch pass catchers are going to be an even more essential element of successful team building.
The good news for aspiring franchises is that this year's free-agent wide receiver crop could be chock full of quality aerial targets. In fact, this may be as good a free-agent class for wide receivers as we've ever seen.
But not all of these targets were created equal. To help navigate this field, we review seven potential free-agent wideouts.
Each review details the player's age and size along with three key metrics: yards per attempt (YPA); vertical yards per attempt (VYPA), which measures productivity on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield; and stretch vertical yards per attempt (SVYPA), which measures productivity on aerials thrown 20 or more yards.
Dwayne Bowe
Birthdate: Sept. 21, 1984 (27 years old)
Height/weight: 6-2, 221 pounds
YPA: 8.8
VYPA: 11.7
SVYPA: 8.4
Pros: Matt Cassel has a history of being one of the least productive vertical passers in the NFL and yet Bowe has been able to post double-digit VYPA totals with him in consecutive seasons. He may be a big reason for what little production Cassel had on deeper throws.
Cons: Bowe may have a good VYPA total, but his 8.4 SVYPA is the lowest of any wideout in this comparison. His SVYPA total is also lower than the 10.1 SVYPA posted by Cassel this past season, so that says he was in some ways less productive than his Chiefs teammates in this category. He got down the field, but not deep.
Bottom line: Bowe may have stretch vertical limitations, but he should be able to upgrade the short and medium pass game of any team.
Marques Colston
Birthdate: June 5, 1983 (28 years old)
Height/weight: 6-4, 225 pounds
YPA: 11.1
VYPA: 14.1
SVYPA: 21.8
Pros: Colston posted the highest YPA, VYPA and SVYPA of any wide receiver in this group. He is also the second-tallest and second-heaviest player in this analysis, so he can present defenses with matchup nightmares when utilized properly, and the Saints have used him all over the field.
Cons: Everyone in the New Orleans' offense posted great numbers last season, so some of his statistical edge may have to be taken with a grain of salt. His SVYPA numbers were tallied on only 12 targets, which is the easily the lowest total of any wideout in this group, meaning he isn't quite the vertical stretch threat some might assume he is.
Bottom line: Colston has the potential to be the best possession receiver in the NFL, but his productivity could drop off if he joins a team with less creative playcalling than he received with the Saints.
DeSean Jackson
Birthdate: Dec. 1, 1986 (25 years old)
Height/weight: 5-10, 175 pounds
YPA: 10.3
VYPA: 12.9
SVYPA: 16.0
Pros: Jackson was one of only three wideouts in this comparison to post double-digit totals in each of the YPA categories. He is the youngest player in this group.
Cons: Jackson's 2011 numbers pale in comparison to his 2010 numbers in those same categories (11.4 YPA, 15.3 VYPA, 21.7 SVYPA). His highest single-season reception total is 62, and when that is combined with the fact that he is the shortest and smallest player in this group, it means he may not be durable enough to serve as a No. 1 wideout. (Though it should be said his durability thus far isn't in question.)
Bottom line: There is a reason the Eagles have shown some hesitation in paying him a big contract and why they may be considering either putting a franchise tag on or trading Jackson. He has more big-dollar bust potential than any other wide receiver in this year's field.
Vincent Jackson
Birthdate: Jan. 14, 1983 (29 years old)
Height/weight: 6-5, 230 pounds
YPA: 10.7
VYPA: 12.3
SVYPA: 12.9
Pros: Jackson's great numbers are not an anomaly for him, as he has posted similar totals in the past. He is the tallest and heaviest player in this analysis.
Cons: Jackson's highest single-season pass reception total is 68. He also tallied less than 50 yards receiving in eight of his 16 games last season. The latter brings up consistency issues and the former offers some concern about his ability to deal with a larger target workload. He is the second-oldest player of this group.
Bottom line: Jackson might be biggest risk-reward wideout in this year's free-agent class.
Steve Johnson
Birthdate: July 22, 1986 (25 years old)
Height/weight: 6-2, 210 pounds
YPA: 8.0
VYPA: 11.6
SVYPA: 14.8
Pros: Johnson posted quality VYPA and SVYPA totals last year despite being maybe the only good pass catcher on the Bills' roster. He is the second-youngest player in this comparison and his height/weight combination fares well against the group.
Cons: Eighty-one of Johnson's 129 targets were short passes, so he may be more of a dink/dunk receiver than a true vertical threat. What's worse, his 5.7 short pass YPA was the lowest of any member of this group, so he may have limitations at that depth level. That said, Chan Gailey's offense is built around the short pass, so he can't fully be blamed for doing what he's asked.
Bottom line: Johnson wants to be paid like a true No. 1 wideout but there are too many facets of his game that say he has a production ceiling that doesn't justify that type of expenditure.
Brandon Lloyd
Birthdate: July 5, 1981 (30 years old)
Height/weight: 6-0, 188 pounds
YPA: 7.3
VYPA: 8.2
SVYPA: 11.3
Pros: In 2010, Lloyd was the only wideout in the NFL to rack up 100 vertical targets. His 1,403 vertical receiving yards that season easily led the league in that category, so he has shown the ability to be an elite downfield threat.
Cons: He has only produced that level of top-notch vertical productivity in an offense directed by Josh McDaniels, so unless he ends up signing with New England, this is big negative for him. Lloyd is by far the oldest member of this group and has a history of durability issues.
Bottom line: Lloyd has the highest volume of notable negatives in this comparison.
Mario Manningham
Birthdate: June 6, 1986 (25 years old)
Height/weight: 6-0, 185 pounds
YPA: 8.0
VYPA: 9.0
SVYPA: 8.9
Pros: Manningham's dominant postseason production isn't entirely an anomaly, as he had double-digit totals in each of the YPA categories in 2010. He is within a month and a half of being the second-youngest player in this comparison.
Cons: He was the only wideout in this group to not post a double-digit total in at least one of the YPA categories, and his 185-pound frame makes him the second-lightest wideout in this comparison.
Bottom line: Manningham's postseason performance, age and 2010 numbers show that he may have the most upside of any wideout in this group. Depending on how his postseason is viewed by teams in the free-agent market, he could end up as the best value acquisition wide receiver.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and his web site. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is currently available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."