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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ic-expectations-for-each-st-louis-rams-rookie
Setting Realistic Expectations for Each St. Louis Rams Rookie
By Steven Gerwel, Featured Columnist
The St. Louis Rams will heavily depend on rookies at several key positions on offense. Naturally, fans want to know what the expectations are for those first-year players.
As a refresher, here's what St. Louis' 2015 draft class looks like:
Round 1 (No. 10): RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
Round 2 (No. 57): OL Rob Havenstein, Wisconsin
Round 3 (No. 72): OL Jamon Brown, Louisville
Round 3 (No. 89): QB Sean Mannion, Oregon State
Round 4 (No. 119): OL Andrew Donnal, Iowa
Round 6 (No. 201): WR Bud Sasser, Missouri
Round 6 (No. 215): OL Cody Wichmann, Fresno State
Round 7 (No. 224): LB Bryce Hager, Baylor
Round 7 (No. 227): DE Martin Ifedi, Memphis
The only two defensive selections came in the seventh round, so it was obviously an offense-heavy draft. The offensive line in particular received a total makeover.
It's thought that St. Louis will depend on at least two of those linemen as starters, and first-round pick Todd Gurley will also play a major role once he's 100 percent healthy. Sean Mannion, as a relatively high draft pick, will be counted on as a long-term backup, and most of the remaining players have a great shot at making the roster.
These young players will be expected to make an impact. In fact, that's absolutely necessary if the Rams want to fulfill their goal of making the playoffs.
This article will highlight each rookie—excluding the undrafted rookies—and clearly state his Year 1 expectations.
Note: The Rams released Bud Sasser because of a heart condition, per Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com, so he'll be excluded from the article.
Todd Gurley, Running Back
Michael Thomas/Associated Press
Prediction: Gurley will exceed 800 rushing yards and score six touchdowns.
The selection of running backs in the first round has declined in recent years, and there are good reasons for that.
Playbooks have evolved in favor of the aerial attack, and running backs have short shelf lives—Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com constructed a nice chart that tells us how most backs decline by age 27.
Not to mention, first-round running backs aren't living up to the hype. Of all the top-10 rushers in the NFL last year, only Marshawn Lynch was a first-round pick. Five were drafted in the third round or beyond, including seventh-round pick Justin Forsett and the undrafted Arian Foster.
Additionally, there have been 39 backs selected in the first round in the last 15 drafts—excluding 2015. Only 10 of those backs exceeded 1,000 yards during their rookie year, and only 17 surpassed 700 yards.
In fact, 15 of those 39 backs were held under 500 yards. The average stats for a rookie first-round back is a mere 652.1 yards and 4.8 rushing touchdowns.
However, on occasion, an elite running back will emerge from the first round and transform a franchise. Guys like Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson have carried their offenses for years and have turned their teams into playoff threats.
The elite running back is a rare commodity. If a team can acquire one, all of the risks and negative stats regarding the running back position go out the window.
The Rams are hoping they have that in Gurley.
St. Louis has been lacking an elite playmaker on offense for nearly a decade. If Gurley can prove worthy of his draft status and follow in the footsteps of Peterson and Lynch, it will transform the offense overnight.
If Gurley is just another good-but-not-great back—such as Eddie Lacy or Le'Veon Bell—it would be a mild disappointment. It'd be hard to complain if that's the outcome, as Lacy and Bell are very good players, but I think I speak for most when I say the Rams are expecting greater things from Gurley—things that only a top-10, once-in-a-decade talent can provide.
But that'll have to wait. At least for now.
Given his injury situation, along with the fact he'll be fighting for carries with Tre Mason and Benny Cunningham, the expectations for Gurley's rookie year should probably be modest.
A stat line of 800 yards and six touchdowns sounds about right. That exceeds the numbers of an average first-round back, and it's good enough to keep our hopes high for Year 2 and beyond.
Rob Havenstein, Offensive Line
Michael Thomas/Associated Press
Prediction: Rob Havenstein will start in Week 1 and show considerable improvement by midseason.
The selection of Rob Havenstein in the second round was somewhat of a shock.
CBS Sports pegged him as a third- or fourth-rounder, while Walter Football even graded him as a Day 3 pick, suggesting he could drop as far as the sixth round. Since fans get educated on the prospects from such sites, they naturally saw Havenstein as a reach.
After that initial draft-day shock wore off, fans became acquainted with Havenstein and eventually realized he might not be an awful pick after all.
At Wisconsin, Havenstein was the lead blocker for running back Melvin Gordon, who ran for a jaw-dropping 2,587 rushing yards in 2014. He cleared the lanes and made that record-setting season possible.
Meanwhile, Big Ten analyst Gerry DiNardo was quite impressed with Havenstein's Senior Bowl. He claimed there was positive buzz surrounding him among NFL personnel.
It appears that Havenstein is simply a hidden gem who managed to fly beneath the radar of major media and other draft sites.
Gem or not, expectations will be high for him given his second-round draft status. The Rams passed on some big names—Randy Gregory, Ali Marpet, A.J. Cann, Jaelen Strong—in order to secure him, so it'll be a disappointment if he struggles to see the field.
That said, he has the best resume of all the rookie linemen in St. Louis. He will compete for the job at right tackle and should win out.
Jamon Brown, Offensive Line
Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press
Prediction: Jamon Brown will start at least a quarter of the season and serve as a valuable backup.
Jamon Brown, like Havenstein, was also seen as a considerable reach on draft day. CBS Sports graded Brown as a seventh-round prospect—possibly even an undrafted rookie.
But unlike Havenstein, Brown isn't necessarily expected to be a Day 1 starter. He'll be one of three rookies battling for the starting guard job opposite Rodger Saffold, along with Andrew Donnal and Cody Wichmann, but it won't be viewed as a major letdown if he loses out.
However, there are some goals for Brown in 2015.
If he doesn't win a starting job, he'll be expected to at least make the contest interesting. If he rolls over and falls way behind in the race, fans will question the front office's competence for using a third-round pick on him. He needs to at least put up a fight.
Secondly, he needs to be a reliable backup. Even if he's not an immediate starter, he'll likely still see temporary action as an injury substitute. When that time comes, he must be ready to stand his ground in order to keep the offense effective.
Overall, Brown will see some action in 2015 and possibly a handful of starts, but it won't be a shock if he's not a 16-game starter.
Sean Mannion, Quarterback
Jeff Roberson/Associated Press
Prediction: Sean Mannion will serve as a backup and will lead a few drives in garbage time.
Sean Mannion's role will be limited in 2015, but he'll need to prove that he's worthy of the Day 2 draft pick St. Louis sacrificed to obtain him.
His status as a third-round pick basically guarantees him a roster spot. The Rams will cut either Austin Davis or Case Keenum in order to keep him—even if they're initially better than Mannion—so he must show us that he's worth keeping over one of those guys. He needs to have some serious flashes of potential during the preseason.
Mannion is part of the long-term plan, either as a backup or an eventual starter. So in addition to lighting up the preseason, he'll need to step in for mop-up duties during the regular season, which will help him hone his skills.
For Mannion, this year is all about adapting to the NFL and showing us that he'll be an option at quarterback somewhere down the line. If he does that, his rookie year will be considered a success.
Andrew Donnal, Offensive Line
Jeff Roberson/Associated Press
Prediction: Andrew Donnal will compete for a starting spot and start several games. He'll also serve as a competent backup.
Andrew Donnal's situation is similar to Brown's.
As a fourth-round selection, the Rams want to see him compete for that starting job at guard. It won't be a major blow if he doesn't win, but he must at least make it interesting and show some upside.
And like Brown, if Donnal doesn't earn the gig, it's vital that he improves every week and serves as a dependable backup. Injuries will happen, so it's inevitable he'll eventually see playing time and start a handful of games. He has to hold his own when that happens.
At 6'7" and 313 pounds, Donnal will also give Havenstein (6'7", 321 lbs) a run for the right tackle job. Havenstein is the better run-blocker and is more NFL-ready, so he'll likely win out. Still, it's important for Donnal to put up a fight, which will ultimately bring out the best in Havenstein.
Donnal is a key part of St. Louis' revamped offensive line. It's just unclear what the extent of his role will be in his first year.
Cody Wichmann, Offensive Line
Jeff Roberson/Associated Press
Prediction: Cody Wichmann will make the roster and serve as a backup in 2015.
Cody Wichmann is a mere sixth-round selection, so the hype is pretty low compared to Havenstein, Brown and Donnal.
That's actually a good place to be. Rookie players who were high draft picks can sometimes enter camp a little overconfident and complacent. Before they know it, they've lost their job to a late-round gem.
Just look at sixth-rounder E.J. Gaines, who won a starting cornerback job instead of second-rounder Lamarcus Joyner last season. And in 2012, seventh-round pick Daryl Richardson served as the No. 2 running back over second-round pick Isaiah Pead.
Players develop at different rates regardless of where they were drafted. Therefore, it'd be foolish to totally count out Wichmann.
Having said that, he'll be fighting Brown and Donnal—along with veteran Garrett Reynolds and possibly even Barrett Jones—for the starting job at guard. It's not impossible for him to win out, but the odds are slim.
Wichmann's main purpose in 2015 will be as a backup, but that could always change at some point down the line.
Bryce Hager, Linebacker
Jeff Roberson/Associated Press
Prediction: Bryce Hager will compete for a roster spot and attempt to make an impact on special teams.
The Rams added Akeem Ayers during the offseason. Ayers, combined with Alec Ogletree and James Laurinaitis, completes St. Louis' trio at linebacker.
Veteran Jo-Lonn Dunbar—who's been with the Rams since 2012—and third-year pro Daren Bates will be the primary backups. Both are experienced enough to step in when needed without being a liability.
Marshall McFadden and Korey Toomer are also on the roster, and both players contributed on special teams in 2014.
The Rams kept six linebackers in 2015, so seventh-round pick Bryce Hager will have to beat out two of the players mentioned above in order to earn a spot.
The first five are unbeatable, but Hager has a shot at unseating McFadden and Toomer. All he has to do is excel on special teams, which will make him invaluable.
It's as simple as that. He either thrives on special teams or he gets cut, and the practice squad becomes his best hope.
Martin Ifedi, Defensive End
Jeff Roberson/Associated Press
Prediction: Martin Ifedi will spend a year on the practice squad to learn and work on his technique.
Defensive end Martin Ifedi is facing a tough situation, as he's about to compete for a spot on arguably the most stacked defensive line in the NFL.
The Rams kept nine defensive linemen in 2014. They lost Kendall Langford free agency, but Nick Fairley replaced him—so there are no new openings at the moment.
Expecting the Rams to expand and take 10 linemen is a stretch, so Ifedi's only hope is to beat out Ethan Westbrooks.
Westbrooks—the former undrafted no-name who beat out Michael Sam for a job last year—showed tremendous promise as a rookie. He's extremely versatile and can play inside or out. He recorded two sacks and 12 tackles during the 2014 preseason, and he saw action in six regular-season games.
Nothing is impossible—as Westbrooks proved last year—but it's unlikely that Ifedi will display greater promise than Westbrooks. That's a tall order for the seventh-round rookie.
He'll compete in camp, play in the preseason and possibly earn a spot on the practice squad. Anything beyond that would be remarkable.
Steven Gerwel is the longest-tenured Rams featured columnist at Bleacher Report and served as the Rams' game-day correspondent in 2014. You can find more of Gerwel's work by visiting his writer profile or following him on Twitter.
Setting Realistic Expectations for Each St. Louis Rams Rookie
By Steven Gerwel, Featured Columnist
The St. Louis Rams will heavily depend on rookies at several key positions on offense. Naturally, fans want to know what the expectations are for those first-year players.
As a refresher, here's what St. Louis' 2015 draft class looks like:
Round 1 (No. 10): RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
Round 2 (No. 57): OL Rob Havenstein, Wisconsin
Round 3 (No. 72): OL Jamon Brown, Louisville
Round 3 (No. 89): QB Sean Mannion, Oregon State
Round 4 (No. 119): OL Andrew Donnal, Iowa
Round 6 (No. 201): WR Bud Sasser, Missouri
Round 6 (No. 215): OL Cody Wichmann, Fresno State
Round 7 (No. 224): LB Bryce Hager, Baylor
Round 7 (No. 227): DE Martin Ifedi, Memphis
The only two defensive selections came in the seventh round, so it was obviously an offense-heavy draft. The offensive line in particular received a total makeover.
It's thought that St. Louis will depend on at least two of those linemen as starters, and first-round pick Todd Gurley will also play a major role once he's 100 percent healthy. Sean Mannion, as a relatively high draft pick, will be counted on as a long-term backup, and most of the remaining players have a great shot at making the roster.
These young players will be expected to make an impact. In fact, that's absolutely necessary if the Rams want to fulfill their goal of making the playoffs.
This article will highlight each rookie—excluding the undrafted rookies—and clearly state his Year 1 expectations.
Note: The Rams released Bud Sasser because of a heart condition, per Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com, so he'll be excluded from the article.
Todd Gurley, Running Back
Michael Thomas/Associated Press
Prediction: Gurley will exceed 800 rushing yards and score six touchdowns.
The selection of running backs in the first round has declined in recent years, and there are good reasons for that.
Playbooks have evolved in favor of the aerial attack, and running backs have short shelf lives—Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com constructed a nice chart that tells us how most backs decline by age 27.
Not to mention, first-round running backs aren't living up to the hype. Of all the top-10 rushers in the NFL last year, only Marshawn Lynch was a first-round pick. Five were drafted in the third round or beyond, including seventh-round pick Justin Forsett and the undrafted Arian Foster.
Additionally, there have been 39 backs selected in the first round in the last 15 drafts—excluding 2015. Only 10 of those backs exceeded 1,000 yards during their rookie year, and only 17 surpassed 700 yards.
In fact, 15 of those 39 backs were held under 500 yards. The average stats for a rookie first-round back is a mere 652.1 yards and 4.8 rushing touchdowns.
However, on occasion, an elite running back will emerge from the first round and transform a franchise. Guys like Marshawn Lynch and Adrian Peterson have carried their offenses for years and have turned their teams into playoff threats.
The elite running back is a rare commodity. If a team can acquire one, all of the risks and negative stats regarding the running back position go out the window.
The Rams are hoping they have that in Gurley.
St. Louis has been lacking an elite playmaker on offense for nearly a decade. If Gurley can prove worthy of his draft status and follow in the footsteps of Peterson and Lynch, it will transform the offense overnight.
If Gurley is just another good-but-not-great back—such as Eddie Lacy or Le'Veon Bell—it would be a mild disappointment. It'd be hard to complain if that's the outcome, as Lacy and Bell are very good players, but I think I speak for most when I say the Rams are expecting greater things from Gurley—things that only a top-10, once-in-a-decade talent can provide.
But that'll have to wait. At least for now.
Given his injury situation, along with the fact he'll be fighting for carries with Tre Mason and Benny Cunningham, the expectations for Gurley's rookie year should probably be modest.
A stat line of 800 yards and six touchdowns sounds about right. That exceeds the numbers of an average first-round back, and it's good enough to keep our hopes high for Year 2 and beyond.
Rob Havenstein, Offensive Line
Michael Thomas/Associated Press
Prediction: Rob Havenstein will start in Week 1 and show considerable improvement by midseason.
The selection of Rob Havenstein in the second round was somewhat of a shock.
CBS Sports pegged him as a third- or fourth-rounder, while Walter Football even graded him as a Day 3 pick, suggesting he could drop as far as the sixth round. Since fans get educated on the prospects from such sites, they naturally saw Havenstein as a reach.
After that initial draft-day shock wore off, fans became acquainted with Havenstein and eventually realized he might not be an awful pick after all.
At Wisconsin, Havenstein was the lead blocker for running back Melvin Gordon, who ran for a jaw-dropping 2,587 rushing yards in 2014. He cleared the lanes and made that record-setting season possible.
Meanwhile, Big Ten analyst Gerry DiNardo was quite impressed with Havenstein's Senior Bowl. He claimed there was positive buzz surrounding him among NFL personnel.
It appears that Havenstein is simply a hidden gem who managed to fly beneath the radar of major media and other draft sites.
Gem or not, expectations will be high for him given his second-round draft status. The Rams passed on some big names—Randy Gregory, Ali Marpet, A.J. Cann, Jaelen Strong—in order to secure him, so it'll be a disappointment if he struggles to see the field.
That said, he has the best resume of all the rookie linemen in St. Louis. He will compete for the job at right tackle and should win out.
Jamon Brown, Offensive Line
Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press
Prediction: Jamon Brown will start at least a quarter of the season and serve as a valuable backup.
Jamon Brown, like Havenstein, was also seen as a considerable reach on draft day. CBS Sports graded Brown as a seventh-round prospect—possibly even an undrafted rookie.
But unlike Havenstein, Brown isn't necessarily expected to be a Day 1 starter. He'll be one of three rookies battling for the starting guard job opposite Rodger Saffold, along with Andrew Donnal and Cody Wichmann, but it won't be viewed as a major letdown if he loses out.
However, there are some goals for Brown in 2015.
If he doesn't win a starting job, he'll be expected to at least make the contest interesting. If he rolls over and falls way behind in the race, fans will question the front office's competence for using a third-round pick on him. He needs to at least put up a fight.
Secondly, he needs to be a reliable backup. Even if he's not an immediate starter, he'll likely still see temporary action as an injury substitute. When that time comes, he must be ready to stand his ground in order to keep the offense effective.
Overall, Brown will see some action in 2015 and possibly a handful of starts, but it won't be a shock if he's not a 16-game starter.
Sean Mannion, Quarterback
Jeff Roberson/Associated Press
Prediction: Sean Mannion will serve as a backup and will lead a few drives in garbage time.
Sean Mannion's role will be limited in 2015, but he'll need to prove that he's worthy of the Day 2 draft pick St. Louis sacrificed to obtain him.
His status as a third-round pick basically guarantees him a roster spot. The Rams will cut either Austin Davis or Case Keenum in order to keep him—even if they're initially better than Mannion—so he must show us that he's worth keeping over one of those guys. He needs to have some serious flashes of potential during the preseason.
Mannion is part of the long-term plan, either as a backup or an eventual starter. So in addition to lighting up the preseason, he'll need to step in for mop-up duties during the regular season, which will help him hone his skills.
For Mannion, this year is all about adapting to the NFL and showing us that he'll be an option at quarterback somewhere down the line. If he does that, his rookie year will be considered a success.
Andrew Donnal, Offensive Line
Jeff Roberson/Associated Press
Prediction: Andrew Donnal will compete for a starting spot and start several games. He'll also serve as a competent backup.
Andrew Donnal's situation is similar to Brown's.
As a fourth-round selection, the Rams want to see him compete for that starting job at guard. It won't be a major blow if he doesn't win, but he must at least make it interesting and show some upside.
And like Brown, if Donnal doesn't earn the gig, it's vital that he improves every week and serves as a dependable backup. Injuries will happen, so it's inevitable he'll eventually see playing time and start a handful of games. He has to hold his own when that happens.
At 6'7" and 313 pounds, Donnal will also give Havenstein (6'7", 321 lbs) a run for the right tackle job. Havenstein is the better run-blocker and is more NFL-ready, so he'll likely win out. Still, it's important for Donnal to put up a fight, which will ultimately bring out the best in Havenstein.
Donnal is a key part of St. Louis' revamped offensive line. It's just unclear what the extent of his role will be in his first year.
Cody Wichmann, Offensive Line
Jeff Roberson/Associated Press
Prediction: Cody Wichmann will make the roster and serve as a backup in 2015.
Cody Wichmann is a mere sixth-round selection, so the hype is pretty low compared to Havenstein, Brown and Donnal.
That's actually a good place to be. Rookie players who were high draft picks can sometimes enter camp a little overconfident and complacent. Before they know it, they've lost their job to a late-round gem.
Just look at sixth-rounder E.J. Gaines, who won a starting cornerback job instead of second-rounder Lamarcus Joyner last season. And in 2012, seventh-round pick Daryl Richardson served as the No. 2 running back over second-round pick Isaiah Pead.
Players develop at different rates regardless of where they were drafted. Therefore, it'd be foolish to totally count out Wichmann.
Having said that, he'll be fighting Brown and Donnal—along with veteran Garrett Reynolds and possibly even Barrett Jones—for the starting job at guard. It's not impossible for him to win out, but the odds are slim.
Wichmann's main purpose in 2015 will be as a backup, but that could always change at some point down the line.
Bryce Hager, Linebacker
Jeff Roberson/Associated Press
Prediction: Bryce Hager will compete for a roster spot and attempt to make an impact on special teams.
The Rams added Akeem Ayers during the offseason. Ayers, combined with Alec Ogletree and James Laurinaitis, completes St. Louis' trio at linebacker.
Veteran Jo-Lonn Dunbar—who's been with the Rams since 2012—and third-year pro Daren Bates will be the primary backups. Both are experienced enough to step in when needed without being a liability.
Marshall McFadden and Korey Toomer are also on the roster, and both players contributed on special teams in 2014.
The Rams kept six linebackers in 2015, so seventh-round pick Bryce Hager will have to beat out two of the players mentioned above in order to earn a spot.
The first five are unbeatable, but Hager has a shot at unseating McFadden and Toomer. All he has to do is excel on special teams, which will make him invaluable.
It's as simple as that. He either thrives on special teams or he gets cut, and the practice squad becomes his best hope.
Martin Ifedi, Defensive End
Jeff Roberson/Associated Press
Prediction: Martin Ifedi will spend a year on the practice squad to learn and work on his technique.
Defensive end Martin Ifedi is facing a tough situation, as he's about to compete for a spot on arguably the most stacked defensive line in the NFL.
The Rams kept nine defensive linemen in 2014. They lost Kendall Langford free agency, but Nick Fairley replaced him—so there are no new openings at the moment.
Expecting the Rams to expand and take 10 linemen is a stretch, so Ifedi's only hope is to beat out Ethan Westbrooks.
Westbrooks—the former undrafted no-name who beat out Michael Sam for a job last year—showed tremendous promise as a rookie. He's extremely versatile and can play inside or out. He recorded two sacks and 12 tackles during the 2014 preseason, and he saw action in six regular-season games.
Nothing is impossible—as Westbrooks proved last year—but it's unlikely that Ifedi will display greater promise than Westbrooks. That's a tall order for the seventh-round rookie.
He'll compete in camp, play in the preseason and possibly earn a spot on the practice squad. Anything beyond that would be remarkable.
Steven Gerwel is the longest-tenured Rams featured columnist at Bleacher Report and served as the Rams' game-day correspondent in 2014. You can find more of Gerwel's work by visiting his writer profile or following him on Twitter.
