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Les mentioned in his press conference at the combine that he didn't want to go into this draft with glaring needs in his roster. Now, I realize that's a standard approach, or at the very least a philosophy that is very common with GMs due to the desire to enable a BPA perspective when selecting players. But of course teams do indeed go into the draft with needs every year and this year's Rams might at the very least have some subpar positions by the time they're up.
When I look at this roster the primary issues revolve around the potential departure of FAs. That said there are position groups on this roster that are far weaker than others, so I wanted to attempt to draw some parallels with those groups vs quality of said groups in FA and the draft in order to reasonably project what's ahead. Yeah. I know. It's almost impossible to do that (Rams could go in so many ways and there are way too many variables) but I figure what the hell.
Going to do this based on what I perceive the roster quality to be, from worst on.
1. ILB. This is the lowest roster quality position on the team. We also have a new DC that has coached a lot of high quality ILBs in his time in the NFL, and he's from a coaching tree (Fangio) that tends to value those guys more than the previous tree did (Wade tended to coach up ILBs who have the elements he looks for). And of course it gets worse with Littleton preparing to hit FA and the way teams value passing game contributions means he's going to be overpaid.
Options to settle this position prior to the draft are re-signing Littleton, tagging him, or bringing in another FA. Problem is bringing Littleton back still leaves the Rams' ILB position looking quite weak in NFC West matchups where strong run threats abound. When I look at the film I feel like Littleton has too many weaknesses vs the run because he is contact shy and routinely sits back vice filling his run fits downhill. This is glaring vs a run game like that of SF, and IMO his position in this defense moving forward (if he's brought back) is WILB where he's still going to hurt us vs the run but will remain a plus element vs the pass.
Rams seemed to separate his importance in recent conversations at the combine, which I personally did not like. But aside from all that 3-4 ILBs have an advantage over 4-3 MLBs in that you have two of them splitting the field and thus can go bigger and more physical, and you honestly should in order to help offset one less lineman up front. At the least you should have a very strong run filler next to Corey, if the Rams bring him back. Is that on the roster? Meh.
Logic tells me the Rams are going to restack ILB to better serve our new DC. At the very least we are going to see a run stopping upgrade. I'm going to ignore my fear on this one and rest assured the Rams are smart enough to let Littleton walk. How will they restack the position if Littleton leaves in FA? I project they will add a run stuffer who is cheaper than Corey in FA and draft or UDFA one or two nickelbacker types to compete with Howard. Projected FA quality at the position supports this, as does the draft where they can go after big box safeties or WILL type backers for that dev WILB role.
2. OL. We've nuked the hell out of this position, I realize. And for good reason. There are some good pieces going forward in this roster group. Also at this point it seems like Whit is going to be brought back, so I am going to go with this assumption. Which, if things happen that way, means Center is the biggest single need that must be filled heading into the draft as Allen might not be ready for camp and competition is required.
Rams have a couple FA options to solve Center in the FA period. Blythe is one option, as he did play better for us in that final stretch after the move over. But personally I prefer they go away from Blythe, who tends to show his JAGness once he wins a job. The other option is outside Centers however most of them are similar to Blythe in that they're backups. Only Center I like is McGovern, who is a guy Denver has allowed to develop through some painful looks but is very much a starter now. Will he hit FA? Much as it pains me to admit, we might see Blythe come back like a bad case of herpes with the plan to draft a Center to compete with him in camp. It's goddamn ugly, however as I have always said you can disguise a subpar Center if the OGs are strong enough on either side of him.
3. 5T. This might be the starting position the Rams are most concerned with, but to my eye the depth chart puts it third because of Fox. He's not a good starter or anything, but he's a spot starter level player IMO.
FA does have good depth of options, to include a guy who has played in this exact scheme in Wolfe. I feel like the Rams will bring in a FA, not a big money option but someone who will fill the roster hole so they're not looking to move up/down specifically for 5T. The draft has some very nice options but will they go in with a hole from Brockers departure? Doubtful. Also last but not least this position is shared a bit with the 3T depth question, meaning for rotational purposes our 3T depth sucks and makes this a position that a FA addition affects more than just 5T.
4. Kicker. Man have I been going back and forth on this one. Kicker is not some easy position to fill, it's quite tough as these guys are prone to all manner of bizarre results when you draft them. Taking one you like high doesn't seem to increase odds. Taking one late is a roll of the dice. And you don't usually have great options in FA if you try to address it on the market. I've been of the mind that GZ returns. But after listening to McVay's press conference again I'm not so sure that is the case. Call it a gut feeling I suppose but I suspect the Rams are going to replace him.
One potential complication here too btw is the departure of Bones and Dallas needing a kicker. Not to mention the FA group is meh and GZ is probably the safest bet among them. But anyway if the Rams do elect to allow GZ to depart in FA the replacement will be through the draft even if it means entering the draft with a hole at the position on the roster.
5. Edge. At this point I have edge relatively low which I am sure some of you take exception to. And rightly so perhaps. But I think this group is solid in terms of its depth and possibilities, and I am not certain that Matthews will be cut because he'll still cost a couple million plus he looked pretty damn good prior to his injury last season. Fowler is definitely gone of course and I wish him the best with his big payday he's earned it.
FA is probably the best group I can recall in terms of rough number of edge rushers that are likely to hit the market as well as quality at the top. But the Rams simply cannot afford any of them. Couple that with an edge class that is quite good and which might produce a very nice rusher for our defense at 52 overall, and I suspect the Rams will stand pat in FA even after losing Fowler and pick up another edge rusher in the draft to mix into their rotation.
6. Safety. My take on this group is not popular, however I feel we need a rangy deep middle type who can ballhawk and make QBs pay in single high looks. Also this position mixes a bit with the Rams' thinking wrt the nickelbacker and maybe even the WILB role, where we have Christian departing in FA thus a hole for substitutions. Now I realize the Rams also seem to disagree with me on the deep middle need, in fact they seem to prioritize tackling and range in their safety selection with the eye to coaching them up on the other stuff. But the complication there is that Johnson is entering his final season and I don't know whether the Rams plan to retain him.
From the FS perspective this FA group is similar to the edge group in that they're one of the best I can recall. It is very likely we see multiple plus options on the market and it's also a position that the Rams might be able to afford depending on how they stack their roster, because it's the cheapest of the positions in FA. An additional level of complication is added when you consider maybe they elect to trade Johnson now while his stock is quite high and while he has a full year ahead before he hits FA, where the resultant pick can be used elsewhere while they snap up a more affordable replacement in this strong FA market. The draft looks like crap in terms of deep rangy types, meanwhile, so I don't see an answer at FS there.
From the SS perspective Christian's subtraction will require an addition. And as opposed to the FS group the SS group in FA isn't really going to help us out. So the Christian replacement will come from the draft most likely, which is to be expected since those guys are represented in big numbers in any draft to include this one.
Summary:
So to total it all up here's what I'm thinking in terms of relative likelihood based on the above considerations...
ILB - 70% addition of run stuffing ILB in FA (i.e. 30% chance the Rams like Kiser/Reeder enough and run stuffers are affordable).
- 50/50 Littleton is allowed to leave (can't ignore recent rumors
). If he leaves 100% WILB is addressed in the draft and UDFA.
OL - 95% Whit signed before FA. 70% Rams add a Center in FA (might be a JAG like Blythe or upgrade like McGovern), if not will draft.
5T - 80% replacement for Brock in FA. 100% Rams look for DL in the draft even if 5T is filled in FA due to rotation quality and 3T.
Kicker - 100% the Rams enter the draft needing kicker if they let GZ leave in FA. I'd say 50/50 they let GZ go.
Edge - 100% the Rams enter the draft needing an edge if/when Fowler leaves (which is also very high percentage at least 95%).
FS - 10% the Rams agree with me that FS is a need (chances are they stand pat). If they do I think FA is 100% how they approach it and JJ is traded.
SS - 100% the Rams look to the draft to replace Christian.
So I expect action in FA at the ILB, 5T, and OL positions. By action I mean the Rams pursue not necessarily sign the FA.
And I expect draft priorities (i.e. ideally not huge needs but positions they are focused on) to be Edge, DL, and OL, and in particular a focus on physicality in said positions.
When I look at this roster the primary issues revolve around the potential departure of FAs. That said there are position groups on this roster that are far weaker than others, so I wanted to attempt to draw some parallels with those groups vs quality of said groups in FA and the draft in order to reasonably project what's ahead. Yeah. I know. It's almost impossible to do that (Rams could go in so many ways and there are way too many variables) but I figure what the hell.
Going to do this based on what I perceive the roster quality to be, from worst on.
1. ILB. This is the lowest roster quality position on the team. We also have a new DC that has coached a lot of high quality ILBs in his time in the NFL, and he's from a coaching tree (Fangio) that tends to value those guys more than the previous tree did (Wade tended to coach up ILBs who have the elements he looks for). And of course it gets worse with Littleton preparing to hit FA and the way teams value passing game contributions means he's going to be overpaid.
Options to settle this position prior to the draft are re-signing Littleton, tagging him, or bringing in another FA. Problem is bringing Littleton back still leaves the Rams' ILB position looking quite weak in NFC West matchups where strong run threats abound. When I look at the film I feel like Littleton has too many weaknesses vs the run because he is contact shy and routinely sits back vice filling his run fits downhill. This is glaring vs a run game like that of SF, and IMO his position in this defense moving forward (if he's brought back) is WILB where he's still going to hurt us vs the run but will remain a plus element vs the pass.
Rams seemed to separate his importance in recent conversations at the combine, which I personally did not like. But aside from all that 3-4 ILBs have an advantage over 4-3 MLBs in that you have two of them splitting the field and thus can go bigger and more physical, and you honestly should in order to help offset one less lineman up front. At the least you should have a very strong run filler next to Corey, if the Rams bring him back. Is that on the roster? Meh.
Logic tells me the Rams are going to restack ILB to better serve our new DC. At the very least we are going to see a run stopping upgrade. I'm going to ignore my fear on this one and rest assured the Rams are smart enough to let Littleton walk. How will they restack the position if Littleton leaves in FA? I project they will add a run stuffer who is cheaper than Corey in FA and draft or UDFA one or two nickelbacker types to compete with Howard. Projected FA quality at the position supports this, as does the draft where they can go after big box safeties or WILL type backers for that dev WILB role.
2. OL. We've nuked the hell out of this position, I realize. And for good reason. There are some good pieces going forward in this roster group. Also at this point it seems like Whit is going to be brought back, so I am going to go with this assumption. Which, if things happen that way, means Center is the biggest single need that must be filled heading into the draft as Allen might not be ready for camp and competition is required.
Rams have a couple FA options to solve Center in the FA period. Blythe is one option, as he did play better for us in that final stretch after the move over. But personally I prefer they go away from Blythe, who tends to show his JAGness once he wins a job. The other option is outside Centers however most of them are similar to Blythe in that they're backups. Only Center I like is McGovern, who is a guy Denver has allowed to develop through some painful looks but is very much a starter now. Will he hit FA? Much as it pains me to admit, we might see Blythe come back like a bad case of herpes with the plan to draft a Center to compete with him in camp. It's goddamn ugly, however as I have always said you can disguise a subpar Center if the OGs are strong enough on either side of him.
3. 5T. This might be the starting position the Rams are most concerned with, but to my eye the depth chart puts it third because of Fox. He's not a good starter or anything, but he's a spot starter level player IMO.
FA does have good depth of options, to include a guy who has played in this exact scheme in Wolfe. I feel like the Rams will bring in a FA, not a big money option but someone who will fill the roster hole so they're not looking to move up/down specifically for 5T. The draft has some very nice options but will they go in with a hole from Brockers departure? Doubtful. Also last but not least this position is shared a bit with the 3T depth question, meaning for rotational purposes our 3T depth sucks and makes this a position that a FA addition affects more than just 5T.
4. Kicker. Man have I been going back and forth on this one. Kicker is not some easy position to fill, it's quite tough as these guys are prone to all manner of bizarre results when you draft them. Taking one you like high doesn't seem to increase odds. Taking one late is a roll of the dice. And you don't usually have great options in FA if you try to address it on the market. I've been of the mind that GZ returns. But after listening to McVay's press conference again I'm not so sure that is the case. Call it a gut feeling I suppose but I suspect the Rams are going to replace him.
One potential complication here too btw is the departure of Bones and Dallas needing a kicker. Not to mention the FA group is meh and GZ is probably the safest bet among them. But anyway if the Rams do elect to allow GZ to depart in FA the replacement will be through the draft even if it means entering the draft with a hole at the position on the roster.
5. Edge. At this point I have edge relatively low which I am sure some of you take exception to. And rightly so perhaps. But I think this group is solid in terms of its depth and possibilities, and I am not certain that Matthews will be cut because he'll still cost a couple million plus he looked pretty damn good prior to his injury last season. Fowler is definitely gone of course and I wish him the best with his big payday he's earned it.
FA is probably the best group I can recall in terms of rough number of edge rushers that are likely to hit the market as well as quality at the top. But the Rams simply cannot afford any of them. Couple that with an edge class that is quite good and which might produce a very nice rusher for our defense at 52 overall, and I suspect the Rams will stand pat in FA even after losing Fowler and pick up another edge rusher in the draft to mix into their rotation.
6. Safety. My take on this group is not popular, however I feel we need a rangy deep middle type who can ballhawk and make QBs pay in single high looks. Also this position mixes a bit with the Rams' thinking wrt the nickelbacker and maybe even the WILB role, where we have Christian departing in FA thus a hole for substitutions. Now I realize the Rams also seem to disagree with me on the deep middle need, in fact they seem to prioritize tackling and range in their safety selection with the eye to coaching them up on the other stuff. But the complication there is that Johnson is entering his final season and I don't know whether the Rams plan to retain him.
From the FS perspective this FA group is similar to the edge group in that they're one of the best I can recall. It is very likely we see multiple plus options on the market and it's also a position that the Rams might be able to afford depending on how they stack their roster, because it's the cheapest of the positions in FA. An additional level of complication is added when you consider maybe they elect to trade Johnson now while his stock is quite high and while he has a full year ahead before he hits FA, where the resultant pick can be used elsewhere while they snap up a more affordable replacement in this strong FA market. The draft looks like crap in terms of deep rangy types, meanwhile, so I don't see an answer at FS there.
From the SS perspective Christian's subtraction will require an addition. And as opposed to the FS group the SS group in FA isn't really going to help us out. So the Christian replacement will come from the draft most likely, which is to be expected since those guys are represented in big numbers in any draft to include this one.
Summary:
So to total it all up here's what I'm thinking in terms of relative likelihood based on the above considerations...
ILB - 70% addition of run stuffing ILB in FA (i.e. 30% chance the Rams like Kiser/Reeder enough and run stuffers are affordable).
- 50/50 Littleton is allowed to leave (can't ignore recent rumors
). If he leaves 100% WILB is addressed in the draft and UDFA.OL - 95% Whit signed before FA. 70% Rams add a Center in FA (might be a JAG like Blythe or upgrade like McGovern), if not will draft.
5T - 80% replacement for Brock in FA. 100% Rams look for DL in the draft even if 5T is filled in FA due to rotation quality and 3T.
Kicker - 100% the Rams enter the draft needing kicker if they let GZ leave in FA. I'd say 50/50 they let GZ go.
Edge - 100% the Rams enter the draft needing an edge if/when Fowler leaves (which is also very high percentage at least 95%).
FS - 10% the Rams agree with me that FS is a need (chances are they stand pat). If they do I think FA is 100% how they approach it and JJ is traded.
SS - 100% the Rams look to the draft to replace Christian.
So I expect action in FA at the ILB, 5T, and OL positions. By action I mean the Rams pursue not necessarily sign the FA.
And I expect draft priorities (i.e. ideally not huge needs but positions they are focused on) to be Edge, DL, and OL, and in particular a focus on physicality in said positions.
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