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http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/stor...lisberger-now-nfl-second-best-quarterback-nfl
There is little doubt that after winning his second MVP award in 2014, Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL.
What does remain in doubt is who ranks second on that list.
Arguments can be made for Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees or Super Bowl XLIX MVP Tom Brady. But when all of the evidence is weighed, the Pittsburgh Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger is now the second-best quarterback in the NFL.
Roethlisberger had a fantastic 2014 season. He was tied for the league lead in passing yards (4,952) and actually led that category if penalty play (e.g. pass interference, defensive holding, etc.) yards were included. Roethlisberger tied for third in yards per dropback (7.5) and ranked third in yards per attempt (YPA) (8.1), completions (408) and completion percentage (67.1).
A major factor in the upper-tier placement in these metrics was Roethlisberger's elite passing totals on vertical throws (aerials traveling 11 or more yards downfield). He placed third in vertical Total QBR(97.9) and was tied for the highest vertical YPA total among quarterbacks with 200 or more attempts at that depth level.
What makes these rankings even more impressive is Roethlisberger posted these figures while doing a fantastic job of protecting the football.
He was second only to Rodgers in bad decision rate (BDR) among quarterbacks with 500 or more pass attempts last year. BDR measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team.
This had been an area that Roethlisberger struggled in previous seasons, but his 0.8 percent BDR in 2014 indicates he made a mistake of this nature fewer than once in every 100 pass attempts. This was also an area of strength on the vertical passes, as Roethlisberger had the lowest vertical BDR among passers with 100 or more vertical attempts.
That is a very strong case for Roethlisberger. Now let's take a look at his competitors.
Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
Manning ended the 2014 campaign with some impressive numbers, but his statistics faltered badly down the stretch. From Weeks 10-17, Manning posted a 10.8 vertical YPA mark that ranked 15th in the league. During that same span, he also had seven bad decisions on vertical passes, a major reason he finished tied for 25th in interception percentage (6.5 percent) in that time frame.
The Denver brain trust knows that asking a 39-year-old quarterback to carry an offense for an entire 16-game regular season and playoff run is not a good idea. It's one of many reasons the Broncos are going to more of a run-heavy system this year. It's also a good argument for why Manning can longer be considered the second-best quarterback in the league.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Leading his Patriots to a Super Bowl win puts Brady into contention here, but his metrics quickly rule him out.
Drew Stanton, Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and Austin Davis. Teddy Bridgewater had a higher YPA (7.3). So did Brian Hoyer YPA (7.6), Shaun Hill (7.2) and Mark Sanchez(7.8).
Brady was just as bad on vertical passes, as his 10.5 YPA there ranked 20th. One may be tempted to blame that mark on the Patriots' wide receivers, but Kansas City's Alex Smith, a quarterback whose wide receivers accounted for zero touchdown passes last season, had a higher vertical YPA (11.0). Smith also did not have the benefit of throwing to Rob Gronkowski, who led all tight ends in vertical yards (609).
If the statistical gap was closer than this, it might be possible to put Brady over Roethlisberger, but this metric distance is just too far to give Brady the win.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
Luck may be the best young quarterback in the NFL, but he still makes too many mistakes. Luck ranked tied for 24th in BDR and tied for 18th in interception percentage. He also had 13 fumbles (ranked 33rd among quarterbacks) and lost six of those (ranked tied for 32nd).
Add in placing 23rd in completion percentage and ranking 12th in Total QBR, and it shows Luck has a lot of improvement to make in order to be classified among the top two passers in the NFL.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Brees' prolific numbers could give him the strongest alternate case for this spot, but even he had more than a few signs of decline last year.
Brees placed 11th in YPA and tied for the second-most interceptions (17). The vertical game had long been a point of metric pride for Brees, but last year the Saints had only 52 pass plays of 20 or more yards, the team's lowest total since 2010. Add in the loss of tight end Jimmy Graham and a likely move to more of a run-heavy attack for New Orleans, and it is enough to move Brees out of contention.
Bottom line
In addition to his top competition being in a declining state, Roethlisberger will benefit from the continued development of Martavis Bryant (a speedster who could give the Steelers an even better vertical passing game) and an offensive line that could be the best in the NFL. It all points toward Big Ben solidifying his claim as the second-best quarterback in the league.
There is little doubt that after winning his second MVP award in 2014, Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL.
What does remain in doubt is who ranks second on that list.
Arguments can be made for Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees or Super Bowl XLIX MVP Tom Brady. But when all of the evidence is weighed, the Pittsburgh Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger is now the second-best quarterback in the NFL.
Roethlisberger had a fantastic 2014 season. He was tied for the league lead in passing yards (4,952) and actually led that category if penalty play (e.g. pass interference, defensive holding, etc.) yards were included. Roethlisberger tied for third in yards per dropback (7.5) and ranked third in yards per attempt (YPA) (8.1), completions (408) and completion percentage (67.1).
A major factor in the upper-tier placement in these metrics was Roethlisberger's elite passing totals on vertical throws (aerials traveling 11 or more yards downfield). He placed third in vertical Total QBR(97.9) and was tied for the highest vertical YPA total among quarterbacks with 200 or more attempts at that depth level.
What makes these rankings even more impressive is Roethlisberger posted these figures while doing a fantastic job of protecting the football.
He was second only to Rodgers in bad decision rate (BDR) among quarterbacks with 500 or more pass attempts last year. BDR measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team.
This had been an area that Roethlisberger struggled in previous seasons, but his 0.8 percent BDR in 2014 indicates he made a mistake of this nature fewer than once in every 100 pass attempts. This was also an area of strength on the vertical passes, as Roethlisberger had the lowest vertical BDR among passers with 100 or more vertical attempts.
That is a very strong case for Roethlisberger. Now let's take a look at his competitors.
Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
Manning ended the 2014 campaign with some impressive numbers, but his statistics faltered badly down the stretch. From Weeks 10-17, Manning posted a 10.8 vertical YPA mark that ranked 15th in the league. During that same span, he also had seven bad decisions on vertical passes, a major reason he finished tied for 25th in interception percentage (6.5 percent) in that time frame.
The Denver brain trust knows that asking a 39-year-old quarterback to carry an offense for an entire 16-game regular season and playoff run is not a good idea. It's one of many reasons the Broncos are going to more of a run-heavy system this year. It's also a good argument for why Manning can longer be considered the second-best quarterback in the league.
Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Leading his Patriots to a Super Bowl win puts Brady into contention here, but his metrics quickly rule him out.
Drew Stanton, Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and Austin Davis. Teddy Bridgewater had a higher YPA (7.3). So did Brian Hoyer YPA (7.6), Shaun Hill (7.2) and Mark Sanchez(7.8).
Brady was just as bad on vertical passes, as his 10.5 YPA there ranked 20th. One may be tempted to blame that mark on the Patriots' wide receivers, but Kansas City's Alex Smith, a quarterback whose wide receivers accounted for zero touchdown passes last season, had a higher vertical YPA (11.0). Smith also did not have the benefit of throwing to Rob Gronkowski, who led all tight ends in vertical yards (609).
If the statistical gap was closer than this, it might be possible to put Brady over Roethlisberger, but this metric distance is just too far to give Brady the win.
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
Luck may be the best young quarterback in the NFL, but he still makes too many mistakes. Luck ranked tied for 24th in BDR and tied for 18th in interception percentage. He also had 13 fumbles (ranked 33rd among quarterbacks) and lost six of those (ranked tied for 32nd).
Add in placing 23rd in completion percentage and ranking 12th in Total QBR, and it shows Luck has a lot of improvement to make in order to be classified among the top two passers in the NFL.
Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Brees' prolific numbers could give him the strongest alternate case for this spot, but even he had more than a few signs of decline last year.
Brees placed 11th in YPA and tied for the second-most interceptions (17). The vertical game had long been a point of metric pride for Brees, but last year the Saints had only 52 pass plays of 20 or more yards, the team's lowest total since 2010. Add in the loss of tight end Jimmy Graham and a likely move to more of a run-heavy attack for New Orleans, and it is enough to move Brees out of contention.
Bottom line
In addition to his top competition being in a declining state, Roethlisberger will benefit from the continued development of Martavis Bryant (a speedster who could give the Steelers an even better vertical passing game) and an offensive line that could be the best in the NFL. It all points toward Big Ben solidifying his claim as the second-best quarterback in the league.
