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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/06/12/orlando-shootings-jameis-winston-buccaneers-nfl
Our Thoughts Are in Orlando
With Peter King on vacation, our guest columnist begins with the tragic events in Florida. Plus football items on Jameis Winston’s development, five rookies with big opportunities, MMQB retreat notes and much more
by Robert Klemko
Photo: Chris O'Meara/AP
Jameis Winston threw for 4,042 yards with 22 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in his rookie campaign.
We’ve got a true potpourri of an MMQB column, which I’m writing in relief of the boss, Peter King, who took a deserved vacation during a slow news week in the NFL. Today, we check in with new Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter on his plan for Jameis Winston in Year Two; we discuss the first-round rookies with the most on their shoulders, with some insight from a Browns rookie who wants to be Robert Griffin III’s No. 1 target; we take a look at Pro Football Focus grades and why they irk quarterbacks in particular; and we tackle much more.
* * *
The continued development of Jameis Winston
I spoke with Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter on Wednesday, well before the Orlando shooting made talking and writing about football feel trivial, about the progress of Jameis Winston and the process of the second-year quarterback taking full ownership of the offense in the months and years to come.
Last fall, Winston had the benefit of matriculating from a Florida State pro-style offense that many in league circles believe to be as complicated or more complicated than others in the NFL. Still, Koetter—then the offensive coordinator—slowly brought along Winston, limiting him to half-field reads and beginner-level pre-snap duties early last season. Like millions of high school and college kids across the country, Winston is graduating this summer.
Koetter says those pre-snap duties weren’t as limited as people think during Tampa's 6-10 finish—though Koetter worked to keep protection calls off Winston’s mind with more max protection scenarios than most teams, the rookie did have play packages at his disposal. (For example, Winston had the option to call either a certain run play or a certain pass play based on the defense’s alignment and apparent coverage.) In 2016, Winston will be asked to do more. Where there were two-play packages that Winston could call at the line in 2015, there will now be three-play packages plus a blitz audible.
Plus: More no-huddle is planned for 2016, one of Koetter’s signatures when he took the Tampa coordinator job in 2015.
“Jameis is a good communicator at the line, good at the no-huddle, studies like a wild man, and that’s what we love about him,” Koetter says. “I trust my judgment and I trust the judgment of our coaches. We’re around Jameis every day and we know what he’s capable of.”
The first-time NFL head coach, who turned 57 in February, draws from his experience with former first-rounder Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville when deciding what to put on Winston’s plate and when.
Koetter was in his fifth season as offensive coordinator when the Jags drafted Gabbert 10th overall in 2011. Gabbert started 14 games that season, completing just over half of his passes with 12 touchdowns, 11 picks and 14 fumbles. Gabbert was gone after three seasons.
“I think when we had Blaine Gabbert in his first year—and I’m not criticizing anybody—but there’s an example where Blaine maybe got forced into situations a little bit too early,” Koetter says. “I’m a fan of Blaine and I wish him the best, except when he plays us.”
One of Koetter’s biggest challenges has less to do with Winston and more to do with the makeup of his team—the Bucs were the 11th youngest team in the NFL last season and figure to rank high on that list again. A snapshot: On the phone last week, Koetter and I spoke about the potential of Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, the third-year tight end who has missed about half of the past two seasons due to various injuries.
Koetter would like to see the former second-round pick be the kind of tight end you can split out on one side of the formation by himself, creating mismatches and helping the quarterback identify coverages the way Tony Gonzalez did when Koetter coached in Atlanta.
“I love that package,” Koetter says. “Thing is, roles on a young team are ever-changing based on production and health. We’ll see how it works out on the field.”
Several hours after Koetter and I spoke, the coach kicked Sefarian-Jenkins off his practice field.
Why?
Said Koetter: “He didn't know what he was doing.”
* * *
Photo: Ron Schwane/AP
Rookie wide receiver Corey Coleman has been an early hit at Browns camp.
Rookies with big loads to shoulder
In keeping with the theme of youth, I had the pleasure of speaking with one rookie out of Baylor who will be among those NFL newbies who are asked to contribute in a big way on Day 1. Corey Coleman, he of the 4.37 40-yard dash, joins an offense whose top two returning receivers, Taylor Gabriel and Andrew Hawkins, caught a combined 55 passes in 2015 (Hawkins missed half the season due to injury).
Also: Hawkins is 5-foot-7 and Gabriel is 5-foot-8.
The rest of Cleveland’s receivers room is made up of a former NFL quarterback (Terrelle Pryor) and a handful of rookies—two fifth-rounders, a fourth-rounder and the 5-foot-11 Coleman, who caught 74 passes and 20 touchdowns during his fourth year in Waco. In an effort to sniff that sort of production as a rookie and help keep afloat the Browns offense led by Robert Griffin III, Coleman has been keeping odd hours.
A typical morning for Coleman during OTAs consisted of a 6:50 a.m. breakfast with Griffin or rookie quarterback Cody Kessler to go over the practice script, with some of those days ending as late as 11 p.m., walking through routes in his hotel room in Berea.
“I learn better by seeing it,” Coleman says. “So I fake line up in the hotel room and imagine I’m in my place in the formation, and I act like I’m running the play in the hotel room. Instead of running a full slant route, I might take three small steps and a turn after the bed.”
Coleman says Hawkins and senior offensive assistant Al Saunders have been especially helpful with the acclimation from the Baylor offense. While the Bears ran the full route tree or something like it in practice, many of the long routes used in the NFL were scaled to shorter distances in college, Coleman says, and the out-breaking routes weren’t utilized as much. Last week, Browns coach Hue Jackson said he was riding Coleman “pretty hard, because he has so much ability and I want to get it out of him.”
Said Coleman: “I’m excited for the opportunity. It’s really about just listening to the coaches, putting extra time into the playbook, and focusing in on small things.”
Excluding the three quarterbacks drafted in the first round—Jared Goff, Carson Wentz and Paxton Lynch—here are the five first-rounders with the most on their shoulders and the biggest opportunities to contribute in 2016:
1. Corey Coleman, WR, Browns.
2. Jack Conklin, OT, Titans. Tennessee gave up 38 sacks in 2015, and Byron Bell, who replaced Jeremiah Poutasi at tackle when the latter switched to guard, suffered a nasty dislocated ankle in March and has been ruled out for 2016.
3. Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Bucs. Tampa finished 26th in points allowed last year facing the likes of Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan. Should be a fun welcome to the NFL.
4. Karl Joseph, S, Raiders. Defensive back play has been Oakland’s biggest problem as it assembles one of the NFL’s brightest young rosters. A lack of cornerback depth doesn’t do Joseph any favors.
5. Taylor Decker, OT, Lions. Keeping rookie linemen on the bench has become popular across the league, especially with tackles, but Detroit’s best bet may be plugging Decker in at left tackle ASAP.
* * *
Photo: Mark J. Terrill/AP
It would be an upset if Jared Goff didn't start the majority of games for the Rams this season.
About those rookie quarterbacks…
Bovada is currently taking bets on how many games No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz will start for the Eagles; they’ve set the over/under at 3.5. I couldn’t find any prop bets for the other two first-round quarterbacks, so for fun I asked some of my favorite reporters and bloggers close to all three teams for their opinions. Spoiler: The Philly guys believe Vegas is being somewhat optimistic.
Rams: Set the over/under on how many games Jared Goff will start.
Brandon Bate, Turf Show Times: 12
Vinny Bonsignore, L.A. Daily News: 13
Sam Farmer, L.A. Times: 14
Derrik Klassen, Turf Show Times: 16
Myles Simmons, TheRams.com: 16
Nick Wagoner, ESPN: 16
Average: 14.5
Sam Farmer’s June take: “It’s going to be somewhat surprising if Goff is not the Week 1 starter, IMO. By saying 14, I’m building in some flexibility.”
Eagles: Set the over/under on how many games Carson Wentz will start.
Zach Berman, Philadelphia Inquirer: 2
Les Bowen, Philadelphia Daily News: 3.5
Adam Caplan, ESPN NFL Insider: 4.5
Jeff McLane, Philadelphia Inquirer: 1
Josh Paunil, Birds 24/7, Philly Mag: 3
Eliot Shorr-Parks, NJ.com: 2.5
Average: 2.75
Les Bowen’s June take: “It all revolves around Bradford’s health. He looks good out here in practice and if he can stay healthy I think there's a chance that he plays nearly the entire season, but I don't have a lot of confidence in his health. You watch Wentz and he does something tremendous every day, but you can tell that after 23 games at the [FCS] level, there’s a lot he needs to catch up on.
The fans will want to see him, but the coach also brought in Chase Daniel, a guy he likes, and paid him $7 million. It would not surprise me if Wentz didn't play at all this year, but I’ll put the number at 3.5 because I do believe there’s a good chance Bradford’s health doesn’t stand up.”
Broncos: Set the over/under on how many games Paxton Lynch will start.
Nicki Jhabvala, Denver Post: 4
Lindsay H. Jones, USA Today: 4
Paul Klee, Colorado Springs Gazette: 2
Mike Klis, 9News Denver: 6
James Palmer, NFL Network: 0
Cameron Wolfe, Denver Post: 2.5
Average: 3
Mike Klis’ June take: “It appears Kubiak is pushing Lynch to get ready ASAP. He’s getting personal coaching, lots of reps. He’s got some kind of arm and can move. But coming from spread, he’s not ready. They’ll muddle through with Mark Sanchez as long as they can. The Week 11 bye makes sense to get Lynch ready. They want him playing at some point this year. Six games is a good test going into playoffs. He’ll play with handcuffs on the rest of the year and hope the D can win a game or two.”
* * *
Photo: Joe Robbins/Getty Images
The view of a quarterback’s performance can change depending on the perspective.
PFF makes the (QB) grade
Apropos of nothing, I made a few calls this week on a topic that’s always interested me: How do players and coaches feel about Pro Football Focus grades?
You may remember back in September when Aaron Rodgers went for 333 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions in a win over the Chiefs and Pro Football Focus gave him a -0.8 grade. PFF, a player grading and football analytics site, was so cognizant of the inevitable backlash they published a 708-word explainer justifying the grade. The backlash didn’t waver, but at least PFF got in a word.
Commentators called it clickbait. SB Nation’s Cheesehead blog said it was “amateur hour.” Chris Chase at For The Win wrote: “Advanced metrics don’t work in the NFL.”
Privately, some NFL quarterbacks and their coaches feel the similarly when it comes to independent grading of the most vital position on the field. The nuances of playing the position, they argue, aren’t visible to PFF’s graders, or anybody outside the locker room for that matter.
“You can't have an accurate grade on a guy unless you're on the sideline, in the QB room, understanding what was discussed about particular plays,” said one AFC offensive coordinator. “I've been sitting in the lunch room and matched up my grades with PFF grades, and they're fairly accurate, but less so when you're talking about quarterbacks.”
I floated that quote by PFF senior analyst Steve Palazzolo, who believes PFF QB grades are a strength of the site. Numerous NFL teams subscribe to PFF for access to player data beyond the grades.
“There are no other metrics that properly divide credit on passing plays,” Palazzolo says, “whether it’s an easy throw in which the wide receiver does all of the work for a big gain or a blatant mis-read of coverage that is dropped for a would-be interception.
“As far as knowing the play call, I believe our system ultimately accounts for it, even if we don't have intimate knowledge of the nuances of each play. Plays that may constitute a ‘good read’ by the quarterback may go down as ‘expected’ for us and a 0-graded throw, so any disconnect with coaches may have to do with how we weigh those types of plays.”
Palazzolo says PFF asked an NFL offensive coordinator sit down with an analyst and go over grades on a play-by-play basis, and those grades were in “lockstep.” They’ve also worked with ex-NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer on grading high schoolers at the Elite 11 camp for the past two years, and those grades also were in lockstep with Dilfer and the coaches’ evaluations.
What it comes down to, Dilfer says, is a misunderstanding. PFF evaluates what the ball does, he says. It’s not the entirety of a quarterback’s job, but the last phase. In this interpretation, a PFF grade can only be seen as a partial grade on a quarterback’s performance, not a comprehensive metric.
“The QB coaches value the vastness of the job of quarterbacks, which is bigger than what the ball does,” Dilfer says. “There’s no way to know the 30 layers that are part of the job, and that’s not what PFF set out to do. A few times each season there’s this aberration where a guy has a great game and PFF said he just did his job. I think both sides are right.
“All these coordinators and quarterbacks get their panties in a wad over the grades—and I would be one of these sensitive guys too if I were playing—because we understand the vastness of the job.”
* * *
New vibe in Jacksonville
I consider the Jaguars one of the most intriguing teams of 2016 in large part because of that rapidly improving offense. Blake Bortles seems primed for stardom in Year 3 after improving from 11 touchdowns in 13 starts as a rookie to 35 in 16 in his second season with roughly the same amount of interceptions (18) and poor decisions. The development of receivers Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson and a competent offensive line has been critical, but what about that defense?
A mastery of the other side of the ball was supposed to be Gus Bradley’s greatest trait when the Jags hired him away from Seattle in 2013, but since that year the team has finished 28th, 26th, and 31st in points allowed while the offense has more than held up its end of the bargain. The team fired defensive coordinator Bob Babich in the offseason and promoted defensive line coach Todd Walsh.
And while there’s not usually much to glean from watching OTA and minicamp practices without pads, I’m a firm believer that coaches and players can set a tone for the season and clearly define expectations for success in these summer sessions.
One guy who’s loving the tone being set in Jags camp is linebacker Telvin Smith, who is probably the best defensive player in football you’ve never heard of. Drafted in the fifth round out of Florida State in 2014, Smith hovers around 220 pounds and has emerged as one of the great do-it-all linebackers in football on a defense that has otherwise lacked playmakers.
Smith says Walsh has improved communication on the field and raised expectations immediately.
“He puts that red dot on you in the meeting,” Smith says. “We start off the meetings and we go right into watching film. He’s got a laser pointer and he’ll put the dot on you and say, You didn’t do what you’re supposed to do. Just putting you out there in front of the team like that. It gives you that sense of, Oh, OK, now I know it’s on me.
“That wasn’t a big emphasis this time last year. We were worried about everybody getting an understanding, trying to learn the defense. We’re raising that bar; we've got to make these plays.”
The Jaguars as a franchise raised eyebrows and expectations by straying from their recent home-grown approach to sign Malik Jackson away from the Broncos for six years, $90 million. They’ll also get back 2015 first-round pick Dante Fowler Jr. from a season-ending ACL tear suffered this time last year. Yet Smith, the defense’s pragmatic spokesman, isn’t ready to raise any banners.
“Everyone wants me to say or just want us to say like, Yeah we got the talent we’re going to do this and this and this,” Smith says. “You still got to put that work in; it looks great on paper but the chemistry on the field is totally different. At the end of the day, when we get in these game situations, we have to know we’re all fighting for the same thing.”
* * *
View: https://twitter.com/sonofbum/status/742174509831094272/photo/1
* * *
Nine Things I Think I Think
1. I think I enjoyed my day-trip to Philadelphia last week to watch the burgeoning QB competition between Sam Bradford and Carson Wentz and to get a feel for what practices will be like under Doug Pederson, whose coaching style appears to lean closer to Andy Reid than Chip Kelly. No more deafening techno at the NovaCare facility; just modern hip-hop, at a moderate volume. And rather than players going nonstop in five or six groups at once, there’s a lot more standing around and listening.
It seems to be a welcome change for the vets. Here’s cornerback Nolan Carroll: “Things are a lot more slowed down this year compared to last year. They don’t want to give us a bunch of information and throw you on the field; that’s like a wasted day. I understand his mindset from last year. He wanted us to not think and just react, but guys need the mental reps first.” I wonder if Chip can hear that 2,500 miles away in San Francisco…
2. I think if you made a list of the top head-coaching candidates at the moment, which I like to do from time to time, it would look something like this (with a high degree of variation around the league):
a. Sean McDermott, Panthers defensive coordinator: Money in the bank, provided he has the opportunity to interview.
b. Teryl Austin, Lions DC: a lot to prove after defense languished in 2015 with key injuries.
c. Josh McDaniels, Patriots OC: Comfortable, and picky.
d. Matt Patricia, Patriots DC: Ditto.
e. Jim Schwartz, Eagles DC: Could vault to the top by turning around Philadelphia’s D.
f. Todd Haley, Steelers OC: Already making noise about scoring 30 a game.
g. Mike Shula, Panthers OC: Will need to nail his interviews, should probably hire an agent.
h. Darrell Bevell, Seahawks OC: Managing the fourth-best offense, despite OL woes, washes away some stink of goal-line failure in Super Bowl.
i. Doug Marrone, assistant head coach/OL coach, Jaguars: Went 0 for 5 in interviews last winter, could use an OC gig.
j. Tom Coughlin, unemployed: Will be 70 in August.
3. I think congrats are in order for Gio Bernard, son of Haitian refugees, one of the league’s good guys and owner of a three-year, $15.5 million contract extension in Cincinnati, a true rarity these days for a running back. Bernard’s play-making ability is well-documented—he upped his yards per carry to 4.7 last season and caught 49 passes—but it’s his improved pass-blocking since being drafted out of North Carolina in the second round of the 2013 draft that makes him so valuable in today’s NFL.
4. I think if you asked me to project the agenda of the 2021 CBA talks, salaries for top-tier players as a percentage of the cap as opposed to a fixed number will be a major point of contention.
5. I think cropping your boss out of an Instagram photo is pretty childish. Then again, I’d be pretty peeved if I’d just single-handedly turned the tide of a Super Bowl and my bosses couldn’t afford or didn’t want to pay me considerably more money than the Giants gave Olivier Vernon.
Of course, if you’re looking for someone to blame for this contract standoff between an all-pro and his Hall of Fame GM, look no further than Jerry Reese, the Giants GM who paid $52.5 guaranteed for a defensive end with 14 sacks in the past two seasons.
6. I think if I were Rams owner Stan Kroenke, I’d wait a few months before talking contract extensions with Les Snead and Jeff Fisher, the GM-coach combo that has 34 losses in four seasons together. Granted, drafting a rookie quarterback No. 1 overall gave the pair new life, and it would probably take a disastrous 2016 performance to justify canning both, but still, where’s the urgency to re-sign them?
7. I think kudos are in order for Vikings quarterback Shaun Hill, who heard his hometown rec league was switching from tackle football to flag football for its younger players, and not only penned a letter of support, but also decided to sponsor the league so children could play for free. A native of Parsons, Kan., and father of two boys, Hill has football’s future in mind.
“To me, it's a preservation thing for this game,” he told ESPN’s Kevin Seifert. “We're really losing a lot of kids to other sports, and they just don't come back later on. So this is an opportunity to give those kids an outlet to play football and to learn the game if maybe their parents are holding them out.”
8. I think you should check out the delightful tale of Jets rookie free agent Helva Matungulu, a Kenyan immigrant who says he took a wrong turn on his way to class at Western Carolina in 2011 and happened upon a football practice. He’ll be a guy to root for come August.
9. I think I have two follow-up thoughts on my quarterback story from last month:
a. There were a few people who responded to the piece -- which focuses on how socioeconomic privilege so heavily impacts a child’s opportunity to become a quarterback at any level – with what amounts to a ‘Duh.’ Said one commenter, “Next you should write a story about how water is wet.” I think I may have failed to convey just how many more resources are needed to become an NFL QB than to become, say, a cornerback.
Part of the reason for that is a lack of data: The NFLPA has never done a survey of players’ socioeconomic backgrounds, and if the NFL has, they’re not sharing. Anecdotally, I can tell you the NFL locker room is a collection of rich, poor and everything in between, but the QB is decidedly not. I made this argument in the story but if I could do it over again I would’ve made it in the first 500 words.
b. I had a fellow journalist on Twitter question why I do not mention race even once in this story. He and I discussed that question in a series of emails. Here’s part of what I wrote: One of my ambitions was to help people understand why there are so few black quarterbacks, and how the problem is systemic and generational. But I also wanted to avoid saying the word black in the text. If people were going to come to the realization, I wanted it to be organic; I wanted to avoid mentioning race and having people read the story from a defensive or an offensive mindset, depending on their political leanings.
I felt like, if anybody can read that and believe black quarterbacks have just as much a shot as white quarterbacks, or that the underprivileged at-large had just as much a chance as the privileged, then they were unreachable as readers to begin with.
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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/06/12/orlando-shootings-jameis-winston-buccaneers-nfl
Our Thoughts Are in Orlando
With Peter King on vacation, our guest columnist begins with the tragic events in Florida. Plus football items on Jameis Winston’s development, five rookies with big opportunities, MMQB retreat notes and much more
by Robert Klemko
Photo: Chris O'Meara/AP
Jameis Winston threw for 4,042 yards with 22 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in his rookie campaign.
We’ve got a true potpourri of an MMQB column, which I’m writing in relief of the boss, Peter King, who took a deserved vacation during a slow news week in the NFL. Today, we check in with new Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter on his plan for Jameis Winston in Year Two; we discuss the first-round rookies with the most on their shoulders, with some insight from a Browns rookie who wants to be Robert Griffin III’s No. 1 target; we take a look at Pro Football Focus grades and why they irk quarterbacks in particular; and we tackle much more.
* * *
The continued development of Jameis Winston
I spoke with Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter on Wednesday, well before the Orlando shooting made talking and writing about football feel trivial, about the progress of Jameis Winston and the process of the second-year quarterback taking full ownership of the offense in the months and years to come.
Last fall, Winston had the benefit of matriculating from a Florida State pro-style offense that many in league circles believe to be as complicated or more complicated than others in the NFL. Still, Koetter—then the offensive coordinator—slowly brought along Winston, limiting him to half-field reads and beginner-level pre-snap duties early last season. Like millions of high school and college kids across the country, Winston is graduating this summer.
Koetter says those pre-snap duties weren’t as limited as people think during Tampa's 6-10 finish—though Koetter worked to keep protection calls off Winston’s mind with more max protection scenarios than most teams, the rookie did have play packages at his disposal. (For example, Winston had the option to call either a certain run play or a certain pass play based on the defense’s alignment and apparent coverage.) In 2016, Winston will be asked to do more. Where there were two-play packages that Winston could call at the line in 2015, there will now be three-play packages plus a blitz audible.
Plus: More no-huddle is planned for 2016, one of Koetter’s signatures when he took the Tampa coordinator job in 2015.
“Jameis is a good communicator at the line, good at the no-huddle, studies like a wild man, and that’s what we love about him,” Koetter says. “I trust my judgment and I trust the judgment of our coaches. We’re around Jameis every day and we know what he’s capable of.”
The first-time NFL head coach, who turned 57 in February, draws from his experience with former first-rounder Blaine Gabbert in Jacksonville when deciding what to put on Winston’s plate and when.
Koetter was in his fifth season as offensive coordinator when the Jags drafted Gabbert 10th overall in 2011. Gabbert started 14 games that season, completing just over half of his passes with 12 touchdowns, 11 picks and 14 fumbles. Gabbert was gone after three seasons.
“I think when we had Blaine Gabbert in his first year—and I’m not criticizing anybody—but there’s an example where Blaine maybe got forced into situations a little bit too early,” Koetter says. “I’m a fan of Blaine and I wish him the best, except when he plays us.”
One of Koetter’s biggest challenges has less to do with Winston and more to do with the makeup of his team—the Bucs were the 11th youngest team in the NFL last season and figure to rank high on that list again. A snapshot: On the phone last week, Koetter and I spoke about the potential of Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, the third-year tight end who has missed about half of the past two seasons due to various injuries.
Koetter would like to see the former second-round pick be the kind of tight end you can split out on one side of the formation by himself, creating mismatches and helping the quarterback identify coverages the way Tony Gonzalez did when Koetter coached in Atlanta.
“I love that package,” Koetter says. “Thing is, roles on a young team are ever-changing based on production and health. We’ll see how it works out on the field.”
Several hours after Koetter and I spoke, the coach kicked Sefarian-Jenkins off his practice field.
Why?
Said Koetter: “He didn't know what he was doing.”
* * *
Photo: Ron Schwane/AP
Rookie wide receiver Corey Coleman has been an early hit at Browns camp.
Rookies with big loads to shoulder
In keeping with the theme of youth, I had the pleasure of speaking with one rookie out of Baylor who will be among those NFL newbies who are asked to contribute in a big way on Day 1. Corey Coleman, he of the 4.37 40-yard dash, joins an offense whose top two returning receivers, Taylor Gabriel and Andrew Hawkins, caught a combined 55 passes in 2015 (Hawkins missed half the season due to injury).
Also: Hawkins is 5-foot-7 and Gabriel is 5-foot-8.
The rest of Cleveland’s receivers room is made up of a former NFL quarterback (Terrelle Pryor) and a handful of rookies—two fifth-rounders, a fourth-rounder and the 5-foot-11 Coleman, who caught 74 passes and 20 touchdowns during his fourth year in Waco. In an effort to sniff that sort of production as a rookie and help keep afloat the Browns offense led by Robert Griffin III, Coleman has been keeping odd hours.
A typical morning for Coleman during OTAs consisted of a 6:50 a.m. breakfast with Griffin or rookie quarterback Cody Kessler to go over the practice script, with some of those days ending as late as 11 p.m., walking through routes in his hotel room in Berea.
“I learn better by seeing it,” Coleman says. “So I fake line up in the hotel room and imagine I’m in my place in the formation, and I act like I’m running the play in the hotel room. Instead of running a full slant route, I might take three small steps and a turn after the bed.”
Coleman says Hawkins and senior offensive assistant Al Saunders have been especially helpful with the acclimation from the Baylor offense. While the Bears ran the full route tree or something like it in practice, many of the long routes used in the NFL were scaled to shorter distances in college, Coleman says, and the out-breaking routes weren’t utilized as much. Last week, Browns coach Hue Jackson said he was riding Coleman “pretty hard, because he has so much ability and I want to get it out of him.”
Said Coleman: “I’m excited for the opportunity. It’s really about just listening to the coaches, putting extra time into the playbook, and focusing in on small things.”
Excluding the three quarterbacks drafted in the first round—Jared Goff, Carson Wentz and Paxton Lynch—here are the five first-rounders with the most on their shoulders and the biggest opportunities to contribute in 2016:
1. Corey Coleman, WR, Browns.
2. Jack Conklin, OT, Titans. Tennessee gave up 38 sacks in 2015, and Byron Bell, who replaced Jeremiah Poutasi at tackle when the latter switched to guard, suffered a nasty dislocated ankle in March and has been ruled out for 2016.
3. Vernon Hargreaves, CB, Bucs. Tampa finished 26th in points allowed last year facing the likes of Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan. Should be a fun welcome to the NFL.
4. Karl Joseph, S, Raiders. Defensive back play has been Oakland’s biggest problem as it assembles one of the NFL’s brightest young rosters. A lack of cornerback depth doesn’t do Joseph any favors.
5. Taylor Decker, OT, Lions. Keeping rookie linemen on the bench has become popular across the league, especially with tackles, but Detroit’s best bet may be plugging Decker in at left tackle ASAP.
* * *
Photo: Mark J. Terrill/AP
It would be an upset if Jared Goff didn't start the majority of games for the Rams this season.
About those rookie quarterbacks…
Bovada is currently taking bets on how many games No. 2 overall pick Carson Wentz will start for the Eagles; they’ve set the over/under at 3.5. I couldn’t find any prop bets for the other two first-round quarterbacks, so for fun I asked some of my favorite reporters and bloggers close to all three teams for their opinions. Spoiler: The Philly guys believe Vegas is being somewhat optimistic.
Rams: Set the over/under on how many games Jared Goff will start.
Brandon Bate, Turf Show Times: 12
Vinny Bonsignore, L.A. Daily News: 13
Sam Farmer, L.A. Times: 14
Derrik Klassen, Turf Show Times: 16
Myles Simmons, TheRams.com: 16
Nick Wagoner, ESPN: 16
Average: 14.5
Sam Farmer’s June take: “It’s going to be somewhat surprising if Goff is not the Week 1 starter, IMO. By saying 14, I’m building in some flexibility.”
Eagles: Set the over/under on how many games Carson Wentz will start.
Zach Berman, Philadelphia Inquirer: 2
Les Bowen, Philadelphia Daily News: 3.5
Adam Caplan, ESPN NFL Insider: 4.5
Jeff McLane, Philadelphia Inquirer: 1
Josh Paunil, Birds 24/7, Philly Mag: 3
Eliot Shorr-Parks, NJ.com: 2.5
Average: 2.75
Les Bowen’s June take: “It all revolves around Bradford’s health. He looks good out here in practice and if he can stay healthy I think there's a chance that he plays nearly the entire season, but I don't have a lot of confidence in his health. You watch Wentz and he does something tremendous every day, but you can tell that after 23 games at the [FCS] level, there’s a lot he needs to catch up on.
The fans will want to see him, but the coach also brought in Chase Daniel, a guy he likes, and paid him $7 million. It would not surprise me if Wentz didn't play at all this year, but I’ll put the number at 3.5 because I do believe there’s a good chance Bradford’s health doesn’t stand up.”
Broncos: Set the over/under on how many games Paxton Lynch will start.
Nicki Jhabvala, Denver Post: 4
Lindsay H. Jones, USA Today: 4
Paul Klee, Colorado Springs Gazette: 2
Mike Klis, 9News Denver: 6
James Palmer, NFL Network: 0
Cameron Wolfe, Denver Post: 2.5
Average: 3
Mike Klis’ June take: “It appears Kubiak is pushing Lynch to get ready ASAP. He’s getting personal coaching, lots of reps. He’s got some kind of arm and can move. But coming from spread, he’s not ready. They’ll muddle through with Mark Sanchez as long as they can. The Week 11 bye makes sense to get Lynch ready. They want him playing at some point this year. Six games is a good test going into playoffs. He’ll play with handcuffs on the rest of the year and hope the D can win a game or two.”
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Photo: Joe Robbins/Getty Images
The view of a quarterback’s performance can change depending on the perspective.
PFF makes the (QB) grade
Apropos of nothing, I made a few calls this week on a topic that’s always interested me: How do players and coaches feel about Pro Football Focus grades?
You may remember back in September when Aaron Rodgers went for 333 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions in a win over the Chiefs and Pro Football Focus gave him a -0.8 grade. PFF, a player grading and football analytics site, was so cognizant of the inevitable backlash they published a 708-word explainer justifying the grade. The backlash didn’t waver, but at least PFF got in a word.
Commentators called it clickbait. SB Nation’s Cheesehead blog said it was “amateur hour.” Chris Chase at For The Win wrote: “Advanced metrics don’t work in the NFL.”
Privately, some NFL quarterbacks and their coaches feel the similarly when it comes to independent grading of the most vital position on the field. The nuances of playing the position, they argue, aren’t visible to PFF’s graders, or anybody outside the locker room for that matter.
“You can't have an accurate grade on a guy unless you're on the sideline, in the QB room, understanding what was discussed about particular plays,” said one AFC offensive coordinator. “I've been sitting in the lunch room and matched up my grades with PFF grades, and they're fairly accurate, but less so when you're talking about quarterbacks.”
I floated that quote by PFF senior analyst Steve Palazzolo, who believes PFF QB grades are a strength of the site. Numerous NFL teams subscribe to PFF for access to player data beyond the grades.
“There are no other metrics that properly divide credit on passing plays,” Palazzolo says, “whether it’s an easy throw in which the wide receiver does all of the work for a big gain or a blatant mis-read of coverage that is dropped for a would-be interception.
“As far as knowing the play call, I believe our system ultimately accounts for it, even if we don't have intimate knowledge of the nuances of each play. Plays that may constitute a ‘good read’ by the quarterback may go down as ‘expected’ for us and a 0-graded throw, so any disconnect with coaches may have to do with how we weigh those types of plays.”
Palazzolo says PFF asked an NFL offensive coordinator sit down with an analyst and go over grades on a play-by-play basis, and those grades were in “lockstep.” They’ve also worked with ex-NFL quarterback and ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer on grading high schoolers at the Elite 11 camp for the past two years, and those grades also were in lockstep with Dilfer and the coaches’ evaluations.
What it comes down to, Dilfer says, is a misunderstanding. PFF evaluates what the ball does, he says. It’s not the entirety of a quarterback’s job, but the last phase. In this interpretation, a PFF grade can only be seen as a partial grade on a quarterback’s performance, not a comprehensive metric.
“The QB coaches value the vastness of the job of quarterbacks, which is bigger than what the ball does,” Dilfer says. “There’s no way to know the 30 layers that are part of the job, and that’s not what PFF set out to do. A few times each season there’s this aberration where a guy has a great game and PFF said he just did his job. I think both sides are right.
“All these coordinators and quarterbacks get their panties in a wad over the grades—and I would be one of these sensitive guys too if I were playing—because we understand the vastness of the job.”
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New vibe in Jacksonville
I consider the Jaguars one of the most intriguing teams of 2016 in large part because of that rapidly improving offense. Blake Bortles seems primed for stardom in Year 3 after improving from 11 touchdowns in 13 starts as a rookie to 35 in 16 in his second season with roughly the same amount of interceptions (18) and poor decisions. The development of receivers Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson and a competent offensive line has been critical, but what about that defense?
A mastery of the other side of the ball was supposed to be Gus Bradley’s greatest trait when the Jags hired him away from Seattle in 2013, but since that year the team has finished 28th, 26th, and 31st in points allowed while the offense has more than held up its end of the bargain. The team fired defensive coordinator Bob Babich in the offseason and promoted defensive line coach Todd Walsh.
And while there’s not usually much to glean from watching OTA and minicamp practices without pads, I’m a firm believer that coaches and players can set a tone for the season and clearly define expectations for success in these summer sessions.
One guy who’s loving the tone being set in Jags camp is linebacker Telvin Smith, who is probably the best defensive player in football you’ve never heard of. Drafted in the fifth round out of Florida State in 2014, Smith hovers around 220 pounds and has emerged as one of the great do-it-all linebackers in football on a defense that has otherwise lacked playmakers.
Smith says Walsh has improved communication on the field and raised expectations immediately.
“He puts that red dot on you in the meeting,” Smith says. “We start off the meetings and we go right into watching film. He’s got a laser pointer and he’ll put the dot on you and say, You didn’t do what you’re supposed to do. Just putting you out there in front of the team like that. It gives you that sense of, Oh, OK, now I know it’s on me.
“That wasn’t a big emphasis this time last year. We were worried about everybody getting an understanding, trying to learn the defense. We’re raising that bar; we've got to make these plays.”
The Jaguars as a franchise raised eyebrows and expectations by straying from their recent home-grown approach to sign Malik Jackson away from the Broncos for six years, $90 million. They’ll also get back 2015 first-round pick Dante Fowler Jr. from a season-ending ACL tear suffered this time last year. Yet Smith, the defense’s pragmatic spokesman, isn’t ready to raise any banners.
“Everyone wants me to say or just want us to say like, Yeah we got the talent we’re going to do this and this and this,” Smith says. “You still got to put that work in; it looks great on paper but the chemistry on the field is totally different. At the end of the day, when we get in these game situations, we have to know we’re all fighting for the same thing.”
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View: https://twitter.com/sonofbum/status/742174509831094272/photo/1
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Nine Things I Think I Think
1. I think I enjoyed my day-trip to Philadelphia last week to watch the burgeoning QB competition between Sam Bradford and Carson Wentz and to get a feel for what practices will be like under Doug Pederson, whose coaching style appears to lean closer to Andy Reid than Chip Kelly. No more deafening techno at the NovaCare facility; just modern hip-hop, at a moderate volume. And rather than players going nonstop in five or six groups at once, there’s a lot more standing around and listening.
It seems to be a welcome change for the vets. Here’s cornerback Nolan Carroll: “Things are a lot more slowed down this year compared to last year. They don’t want to give us a bunch of information and throw you on the field; that’s like a wasted day. I understand his mindset from last year. He wanted us to not think and just react, but guys need the mental reps first.” I wonder if Chip can hear that 2,500 miles away in San Francisco…
2. I think if you made a list of the top head-coaching candidates at the moment, which I like to do from time to time, it would look something like this (with a high degree of variation around the league):
a. Sean McDermott, Panthers defensive coordinator: Money in the bank, provided he has the opportunity to interview.
b. Teryl Austin, Lions DC: a lot to prove after defense languished in 2015 with key injuries.
c. Josh McDaniels, Patriots OC: Comfortable, and picky.
d. Matt Patricia, Patriots DC: Ditto.
e. Jim Schwartz, Eagles DC: Could vault to the top by turning around Philadelphia’s D.
f. Todd Haley, Steelers OC: Already making noise about scoring 30 a game.
g. Mike Shula, Panthers OC: Will need to nail his interviews, should probably hire an agent.
h. Darrell Bevell, Seahawks OC: Managing the fourth-best offense, despite OL woes, washes away some stink of goal-line failure in Super Bowl.
i. Doug Marrone, assistant head coach/OL coach, Jaguars: Went 0 for 5 in interviews last winter, could use an OC gig.
j. Tom Coughlin, unemployed: Will be 70 in August.
3. I think congrats are in order for Gio Bernard, son of Haitian refugees, one of the league’s good guys and owner of a three-year, $15.5 million contract extension in Cincinnati, a true rarity these days for a running back. Bernard’s play-making ability is well-documented—he upped his yards per carry to 4.7 last season and caught 49 passes—but it’s his improved pass-blocking since being drafted out of North Carolina in the second round of the 2013 draft that makes him so valuable in today’s NFL.
4. I think if you asked me to project the agenda of the 2021 CBA talks, salaries for top-tier players as a percentage of the cap as opposed to a fixed number will be a major point of contention.
5. I think cropping your boss out of an Instagram photo is pretty childish. Then again, I’d be pretty peeved if I’d just single-handedly turned the tide of a Super Bowl and my bosses couldn’t afford or didn’t want to pay me considerably more money than the Giants gave Olivier Vernon.
Of course, if you’re looking for someone to blame for this contract standoff between an all-pro and his Hall of Fame GM, look no further than Jerry Reese, the Giants GM who paid $52.5 guaranteed for a defensive end with 14 sacks in the past two seasons.
6. I think if I were Rams owner Stan Kroenke, I’d wait a few months before talking contract extensions with Les Snead and Jeff Fisher, the GM-coach combo that has 34 losses in four seasons together. Granted, drafting a rookie quarterback No. 1 overall gave the pair new life, and it would probably take a disastrous 2016 performance to justify canning both, but still, where’s the urgency to re-sign them?
7. I think kudos are in order for Vikings quarterback Shaun Hill, who heard his hometown rec league was switching from tackle football to flag football for its younger players, and not only penned a letter of support, but also decided to sponsor the league so children could play for free. A native of Parsons, Kan., and father of two boys, Hill has football’s future in mind.
“To me, it's a preservation thing for this game,” he told ESPN’s Kevin Seifert. “We're really losing a lot of kids to other sports, and they just don't come back later on. So this is an opportunity to give those kids an outlet to play football and to learn the game if maybe their parents are holding them out.”
8. I think you should check out the delightful tale of Jets rookie free agent Helva Matungulu, a Kenyan immigrant who says he took a wrong turn on his way to class at Western Carolina in 2011 and happened upon a football practice. He’ll be a guy to root for come August.
9. I think I have two follow-up thoughts on my quarterback story from last month:
a. There were a few people who responded to the piece -- which focuses on how socioeconomic privilege so heavily impacts a child’s opportunity to become a quarterback at any level – with what amounts to a ‘Duh.’ Said one commenter, “Next you should write a story about how water is wet.” I think I may have failed to convey just how many more resources are needed to become an NFL QB than to become, say, a cornerback.
Part of the reason for that is a lack of data: The NFLPA has never done a survey of players’ socioeconomic backgrounds, and if the NFL has, they’re not sharing. Anecdotally, I can tell you the NFL locker room is a collection of rich, poor and everything in between, but the QB is decidedly not. I made this argument in the story but if I could do it over again I would’ve made it in the first 500 words.
b. I had a fellow journalist on Twitter question why I do not mention race even once in this story. He and I discussed that question in a series of emails. Here’s part of what I wrote: One of my ambitions was to help people understand why there are so few black quarterbacks, and how the problem is systemic and generational. But I also wanted to avoid saying the word black in the text. If people were going to come to the realization, I wanted it to be organic; I wanted to avoid mentioning race and having people read the story from a defensive or an offensive mindset, depending on their political leanings.
I felt like, if anybody can read that and believe black quarterbacks have just as much a shot as white quarterbacks, or that the underprivileged at-large had just as much a chance as the privileged, then they were unreachable as readers to begin with.
