Revisiting the Patrick Mahomes draft-day trade

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CGI_Ram

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Super Bowl 2020: Revisiting the Patrick Mahomes draft-day trade and how the Chiefs' gamble paid off

Fans of the Kansas City Chiefs will always remember the 2017 NFL Draft. In the first round, they made a trade that would alter the future of their franchise and the landscape of the NFL at large.

The 2017 draft class was a bit top-heavy when it came to quarterbacks. It wasn't considered a deep class, but there were a couple of signal callers who had the potential to develop into NFL stars. Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes were considered the top three quarterbacks in the draft once Day 1 arrived. However, it's important to remember just how far Mahomes shot up draft boards. Early in the process, he was discussed as a Day 2 pick, then a fringe first-rounder, but all it took was one team to fall in love.

The San Francisco 49ers sat at No. 2 overall, and they needed a quarterback. Brian Hoyer was slated to be their starting signal caller, and they were thought to be a team that would take a flier on a rookie. Instead, the Chicago Bears called and offered four picks to move up one spot from No. 3 to No. 2. Since the Bears had just signed Mike Glennon to be their starter less than two months earlier, the general consensus was that they would take a defensive player, such as Stanford defensive end Solomon Thomas. Instead, the Bears opted to take Trubisky at No. 2 overall.

With the 49ers on the clock at No. 3 overall, they could have taken someone like Mahomes or Watson, but they decided to shore up the defensive line by taking Thomas.

As the draft went on, Trubisky ended up being the only quarterback to be selected in the first nine picks, and the Buffalo Bills were put on the clock at No. 10 overall. The Chiefs then decided to make a bold move, and trade their first-round pick (No. 27 overall), their third-round pick (No. 91 overall) and their 2018 first-round pick to acquire No. 10 overall. Many thought the Chiefs were moving up for the two-time Heisman Trophy finalist and college footballchampion Watson. They were wrong.

Watson was considered by many to be the top quarterback in the draft. He put up record numbers for the Tigers and led Clemson to back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances. He compiled a 32-3 record as a starter, had the best winning percentage in school history for a quarterback and finished third in ACC history in total offense -- only behind Philip Riversand former Clemson quarterback Tajh Boyd. While you could argue that Watson didn't have as high of a ceiling as some of the other quarterbacks in the class, he definitely appeared to be the most "sure thing."

Instead, the Chiefs decided to take the big-armed quarterback out of Texas Tech: Mahomes.

The Whitehouse, Texas, native wasn't highly touted during the early stages of the draft process. His footwork was torn apart by analysts and many pointed to the fact that his stats were inflated due to the Air Raid offense. But as we mentioned earlier, he gradually began to climb up draft boards as the draft day approached. Not many saw Mahomes being selected at No. 10 overall, but most Chiefs fans were excited after watching five minutes of his highlights tape.

Mahomes ended his Texas Tech career ranked third in passing yards, touchdown passes, and completions. He ranked second all time among Red Raider quarterbacks with 22 rushing touchdowns and also in total touchdowns. In his junior season, future Arizona Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury helped him become the nation's leading passer.

While Kansas City had Alex Smith as its starting quarterback, he was coming off a season where he passed for 15 touchdowns and eight interceptions. It wasn't out of the realm of possibility that the Chiefs were looking to upgrade their quarterback situation -- even if they had just gone 12-4 during the 2016 season. Kansas City could redshirt Mahomes for a year, plus Smith's contract included no guaranteed money in 2018.

The Chiefs' 2017 draft class had only six players, but with prospects like Tanoh Kpassagnon, Kareem Hunt and Jehu Chesson, the potential was there. All attention, however, was given to Mahomes.

The young quarterback threw for 390 yards and four touchdowns in his first four preseason games, and he recorded an overall passer rating of 109.3. He wouldn't see any more action until Dec. 31, when he got to start the regular-season finale against the Denver Broncos. It certainly wasn't a great performance, as Mahomes completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 284 yards and one interception, but behind the scenes, it appeared that the Chiefs were ready to make a big change under center.

Smith couldn't have played better than he did in his final season in Kansas City. He passed for a career-high 4,042 yards, 26 touchdowns, and only five interceptions, but the Chiefs opted to trade him to the Washington Redskins. With that big move, Kansas City officially entered the Mahomes era.

The 2018 campaign was a storybook season for the Chiefs. It began against the Los Angeles Chargers, when Mahomes threw for 256 yards and four touchdowns in a 38-28 victory. The Chiefs won eight out of their first 10 games, and finished in first place in the AFC with a 12-4 record. While their defense was subpar, it appeared the Chiefs were gearing up for a Super Bowl appearance thanks to their wunderkind under center. Kansas City rolled past the Indianapolis Colts in the divisional round, but had to take on the New England Patriots in the AFC championship game. The contest was to be played at Arrowhead, however, which gave fans confidence that could end the Patriots dynasty and advance to Super Bowl LIII. While Mahomes threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns, the Chiefs fell in overtime to the eventual Super Bowl champions, 37-31.

Even with a disappointing end, the season proved that the Chiefs were onto something special. Mahomes won the 2018 MVP award after passing for 5,097 yards, 50 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Only two quarterbacks in NFL history have thrown for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in a single season: Peyton Manning in 2013 and Mahomes in 2018. While Manning threw for more yards and touchdowns in 2013, Mahomes averaged more yards per attempt and tallied a touchdown on a higher percentage of his passes.

Entering the 2019 season, the Chiefs were considered a Super Bowl favorite. They got off to a bit of a shaky start, however. Tyreek Hill was injured in the season opener against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Mahomes played hurt through back-to-back losses against the Colts and Houston Texans, then he dislocated his kneecap against the Broncos in Week 7. He would miss two games due to the injury, and his return to the field in Week 10 was spoiled by the Tennessee Titans, who won a 35-32 thriller thanks to a blocked field goal on the last play of the game. That Nov. 10 setback ended up being the Chiefs' last loss of the season; they closed the regular season with six consecutive victories, and then won both playoff games by double digits to advance to Super Bowl LIV.

Mahomes finished with 4,031 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and five interceptions in 14 regular-season games. Clearly, his numbers weren't as good as last year's, but he really stepped up his game in the postseason. In Kansas City's two playoff games, Mahomes threw for 615 yards and eight touchdowns. He also was the Chiefs' leading rusher in both games; he had a combined 106 yards and one touchdown.

The answer was pretty clear early on, but the Chiefs' draft-day gamble paid off. Mahomes holds NFL records for most touchdown passes thrown in his first eight career games, the youngest quarterback to throw for six touchdowns in a game, the most consecutive road games with three or more touchdown passes and he was the fastest player to 7,500 career passing yards. He also already owns a handful of Chiefs franchise records. As my colleague Sean Wagner-McGough wrote about this week, Mahomes is already considered one of the best quarterbacks to have played in the NFL.

The Chiefs and 49ers will face off next Sunday for a chance at NFL glory. San Francisco's No. 3 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft will be chasing around the quarterback the 49ers probably wish they would have drafted at No. 3 overall -- but hindsight is 20/20.

The 49ers received four draft picks to move back one spot, but they actually traded two of those away. Thomas was of course selected at No. 3, but they traded the No. 67 overall pick to the Saints -- who took the rookie of the year, running back Alvin Kamara -- and traded No. 111 overall to the Seattle Seahawks, who took safety Tedric Thompson. The 49ers then used the 2018 third-round pick to draft linebacker Fred Warner at No. 70 overall. He started all 16 games this season, and he recorded 118 combined tackles, three sacks, nine passes defensed, and one pick-six.

Hoyer started the first six games of the 2017 season, but he was benched in Week 6 for rookie C.J. Beathard, who was the quarterback the 49ers drafted in the third round that year. Hoyer would be released only a couple of weeks later while Beathard took over as the permanent starter.

In October 2017, the 49ers then made the big move which would help them get to Super Bowl LIV: they sent a second-round pick to the Patriots in exchange for Jimmy Garoppolo. He made his first appearance as a 49er in Week 12 against the Seahawks when Beathard went down with an injury. Garoppolo then took over as the permanent starter the next week, and he led San Francisco to five consecutive victories.

Garoppolo entered the 2018 season as the unquestioned starter, but he tore his ACL in Week 3 against the Chiefs. When he returned in 2019 to again try to complete his first full season as a starter, he led the 49ers to a 13-3 record while throwing for 3,978 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions.

Both the Chiefs and 49ers are happy with where they currently stand, but it's interesting how that 2017 draft affected how the future would turn out for these two teams.
 

ozarkram

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KC as a team has always kinda perplexed me. Good teams, Great teams. Good coaches, Great coaches. Playoff dud. No one wants to play them but at the same time for so many years an afterthought. Cursed if you will. I was shocked when they traded Smith. I never blamed him for their playoff woes more the general curse that seemed to be on them. Obviously they made the right move. I am not hearing much talk about the chiefs locally I believe the fans are collectively holding their breath praying not to jinx it and that the curse is lifted. To that I say its right there gentlemen go get it!
 

kurtfaulk

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shit teams always stay shit.

why on earth were the bills and browns trading down when a highly rated qb fell into their laps? idiots.

.
 

den-the-coach

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shit teams always stay shit.

why on earth were the bills and browns trading down when a highly rated qb fell into their laps? idiots.

.

I agree about Watson, but Mahomes is another story. As the piece states, Mahomes was thought to be a fringe number one, Andy Reid thought otherwise and having Alex Smith for one year helped. Now if you want to post, teams like the Browns & Bills never have the foresight to draft the upside of a Patrick Mahomes, that would be something else and IMO, the Bills are on the rise and next year might have one of the best defenses in the NFL.
 

den-the-coach

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KC as a team has always kinda perplexed me. Good teams, Great teams. Good coaches, Great coaches. Playoff dud.

And you just described the Los Angeles Rams under Chuck Knox, who was a great coach during the Regular Season, but Coached the exact same way in the playoffs with likes of the Rams, Bills & Seahawks and was never able to even get to a Super Bowl and many felt that was because Knox never had the right Quarterback, but he also did not have the intestinal fortitude to go out and get his guy.

Andy Reid was not in the class of Marty Schottenheimer or Chuck Knox, who were far more conservative, but Reid took a major step with the bold move to trade up and take his guy. I love coaches that do that, whether they a right or wrong, take the guy you believe can be a difference maker.

Now I won't hide the fact that I have always had a little heart for the Chiefs as being a young lad, liking both the Rams & the Chiefs because of Hank Stram and the fact the Chiefs before this year having not been to a Super Bowl in 50 years and playing a team I despise helps, but Andy Reid deserves all the accolades because he is one of the very few that saw the upside in Mahomes and made the move to propel his team to cusp of a Super Bowl victory.
 

ozarkram

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And you just described the Los Angeles Rams under Chuck Knox, who was a great coach during the Regular Season, but Coached the exact same way in the playoffs with likes of the Rams, Bills & Seahawks and was never able to even get to a Super Bowl and many felt that was because Knox never had the right Quarterback, but he also did not have the intestinal fortitude to go out and get his guy.

Andy Reid was not in the class of Marty Schottenheimer or Chuck Knox, who were far more conservative, but Reid took a major step with the bold move to trade up and take his guy. I love coaches that do that, whether they a right or wrong, take the guy you believe can be a difference maker.

Now I won't hide the fact that I have always had a little heart for the Chiefs as being a young lad, liking both the Rams & the Chiefs because of Hank Stram and the fact the Chiefs before this year having not been to a Super Bowl in 50 years and playing a team I despise helps, but Andy Reid deserves all the accolades because he is one of the very few that saw the upside in Mahomes and made the move to propel his team to cusp of a Super Bowl victory.
Ground Chuck. Remember it well.
 

den-the-coach

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Ground Chuck. Remember it well.

I read an article years ago about Fred Dryer commented on how great a coach that Knox was during the season, but they knew every time they got to the playoffs, he would not take the chances necessary to win in post season, whereas, Ray Malavasi would.

Now I was never a big Ray Malavasi fan especially when I felt Malavasi got the job by default as Rosenbloom went against his gut and hired George Allen instead of Bill Walsh and then decided Allen was a mistake and Malavasi was the logical choice being the only Knox assistant that was on the staff, but Ray did get the Rams to the Super Bowl finally and Malavasi did open up the offense.

Knox played not to lose and IMO, that hurt the Rams, but Knox liked James Harris and was pressured to play Pat Haden by Rosenbloom and it's too bad both men did not realize the best option was Ron Jaworski, who they traded to Philadelphia for TE Charles Young.
 

Ram65

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The San Francisco 49ers sat at No. 2 overall, and they needed a quarterback. Brian Hoyer was slated to be their starting signal caller, and they were thought to be a team that would take a flier on a rookie. Instead, the Chicago Bears called and offered four picks to move up one spot from No. 3 to No. 2. Since the Bears had just signed Mike Glennon to be their starter less than two months earlier, the general consensus was that they would take a defensive player, such as Stanford defensive end Solomon Thomas. Instead, the Bears opted to take Trubisky at No. 2 overall.

That was arguably the strangest trade ever in the NFL. The Bears traded the Nos. 3, 67 and 111 picks, as well as a 2018 third-round pick (#70) to the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for the second overall pick. They didn't even have to make the deal to get Trubisky who has not been nearly on the same levels as Mahomes and Watson. I imagine all you were shaking your heads as I was as the Whiners robbed the Bears blind on that deal.


The 49ers received four draft picks to move back one spot, but they actually traded two of those away. Thomas was of course selected at No. 3, but they traded the No. 67 overall pick to the Saints -- who took the rookie of the year, running back Alvin Kamara -- and traded No. 111 overall to the Seattle Seahawks, who took safety Tedric Thompson. The 49ers then used the 2018 third-round pick to draft linebacker Fred Warner at No. 70 overall. He started all 16 games this season, and he recorded 118 combined tackles, three sacks, nine passes defensed, and one pick-six.


From this article written By JJ Stankevitz December 19, 2018, 3:10 PM

What happened with the picks?

The 49ers used the Bears’ No. 3 overall pick to draft Solomon Thomas, who’s been an adept run-stuffer but hasn’t made the kind of pass-rushing impact expected from a defensive lineman picked that high (four sacks in 28 games).

San Francisco used the fourth-round pick the Bears traded them to pair with a second-round pick and trade back into the first round to draft linebacker Reuben Foster No. 31 overall. Foster was released in November after he was arrested on a charge of misdemeanor domestic violence, the latest in a string of off-field incidents for the former Alabama standout.

The third-round pick the Bears traded to the 49ers turned into cornerback Akhello Witherspoon, who had a solid rookie year but tailed off in 2018, not tallying an interception with only one pass break-up. He was placed on injured reserve this week.

With the Bears’ 2018 third-round pick, the 49ers drafted linebacker Fred Warner, who’s had a good start to his NFL career with 104 tackles so far in 2018.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

I guess things could have turned out much worse. The Whiners could have gotten Mahomes and Kamara in the same draft. They did get Thomas who they would have taken anyway yet, he hasn't been worth being that highly picked. Big swing and miss on Rueben Foster. Witherspoon has been a starter but, was replaced recently. Warner has been very good and seems to be a leader of the defense. Always interesting to follow these big draft-day trades after a few years. This strange draft-day trade by the Bears could have turned out much better for the Whiners.
 

LesBaker

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That was arguably the strangest trade ever in the NFL. The Bears traded the Nos. 3, 67 and 111 picks, as well as a 2018 third-round pick (#70) to the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for the second overall pick. They didn't even have to make the deal to get Trubisky who has not been nearly on the same levels as Mahomes and Watson. I imagine all you were shaking your heads as I was as the Whiners robbed the Bears blind on that deal.


It was idiotic because the 49ers had Garrapolo under what was then a record contract, there was no chance in hell they were taking a QB.

So the 49ers got to select the player they wanted in the 3rd slot versus the second slot, plus got 4 extra picks.

That kind of dumb move is what costs GM's their jobs!
 

Ram65

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It was idiotic because the 49ers had Garrapolo under what was then a record contract, there was no chance in hell they were taking a QB.

So the 49ers got to select the player they wanted in the 3rd slot versus the second slot, plus got 4 extra picks.

That kind of dumb move is what costs GM's their jobs!


They didn't have Jimmy G at the time. Got him in Oct of 2017. Still a stupid trade.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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That was arguably the strangest trade ever in the NFL. The Bears traded the Nos. 3, 67 and 111 picks, as well as a 2018 third-round pick (#70) to the San Francisco 49ers in exchange for the second overall pick. They didn't even have to make the deal to get Trubisky who has not been nearly on the same levels as Mahomes and Watson. I imagine all you were shaking your heads as I was as the Whiners robbed the Bears blind on that deal.





From this article written By JJ Stankevitz December 19, 2018, 3:10 PM

What happened with the picks?

The 49ers used the Bears’ No. 3 overall pick to draft Solomon Thomas, who’s been an adept run-stuffer but hasn’t made the kind of pass-rushing impact expected from a defensive lineman picked that high (four sacks in 28 games).

San Francisco used the fourth-round pick the Bears traded them to pair with a second-round pick and trade back into the first round to draft linebacker Reuben Foster No. 31 overall. Foster was released in November after he was arrested on a charge of misdemeanor domestic violence, the latest in a string of off-field incidents for the former Alabama standout.

The third-round pick the Bears traded to the 49ers turned into cornerback Akhello Witherspoon, who had a solid rookie year but tailed off in 2018, not tallying an interception with only one pass break-up. He was placed on injured reserve this week.

With the Bears’ 2018 third-round pick, the 49ers drafted linebacker Fred Warner, who’s had a good start to his NFL career with 104 tackles so far in 2018.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

I guess things could have turned out much worse. The Whiners could have gotten Mahomes and Kamara in the same draft. They did get Thomas who they would have taken anyway yet, he hasn't been worth being that highly picked. Big swing and miss on Rueben Foster. Witherspoon has been a starter but, was replaced recently. Warner has been very good and seems to be a leader of the defense. Always interesting to follow these big draft-day trades after a few years. This strange draft-day trade by the Bears could have turned out much better for the Whiners.


kamara and Mahomes on the Niners would have sucked for the NFC West for years.
 

CGI_Ram

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What happened with the picks?

The 49ers used the Bears’ No. 3 overall pick to draft Solomon Thomas, who’s been an adept run-stuffer but hasn’t made the kind of pass-rushing impact expected from a defensive lineman picked that high (four sacks in 28 games).

San Francisco used the fourth-round pick the Bears traded them to pair with a second-round pick and trade back into the first round to draft linebacker Reuben Foster No. 31 overall. Foster was released in November after he was arrested on a charge of misdemeanor domestic violence, the latest in a string of off-field incidents for the former Alabama standout.

The third-round pick the Bears traded to the 49ers turned into cornerback Akhello Witherspoon, who had a solid rookie year but tailed off in 2018, not tallying an interception with only one pass break-up. He was placed on injured reserve this week.

With the Bears’ 2018 third-round pick, the 49ers drafted linebacker Fred Warner, who’s had a good start to his NFL career with 104 tackles so far in 2018.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

I guess things could have turned out much worse. The Whiners could have gotten Mahomes and Kamara in the same draft. They did get Thomas who they would have taken anyway yet, he hasn't been worth being that highly picked. Big swing and miss on Rueben Foster. Witherspoon has been a starter but, was replaced recently. Warner has been very good and seems to be a leader of the defense. Always interesting to follow these big draft-day trades after a few years. This strange draft-day trade by the Bears could have turned out much better for the Whiners.

49’ers didn’t bust, but that was a blah haul... IMO
 

Angry Ram

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Watson was considered by many to be the top quarterback in the draft. He put up record numbers for the Tigers and led Clemson to back-to-back College Football Playoff appearances. He compiled a 32-3 record as a starter, had the best winning percentage in school history for a quarterback and finished third in ACC history in total offense

There you go, just watch him play and that = NFL ready.

His footwork was torn apart by analysts and many pointed to the fact that his stats were inflated due to the Air Raid offense.

lol, pre-draft "analysis" is so dumb. None of this stuff matters in November. Again, just watch em play and see if they have any off field problems.

I love it when people proclaim a college player one thing, and end up being wrong, either positive or negative. Most of the draft picks are the same...depth guys with chances of becoming a starter. Most will be done in the NFL in 3 or 4 years. Hope they have backup plans.
 

yrba1

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shit teams always stay shit.

why on earth were the bills and browns trading down when a highly rated qb fell into their laps? idiots.

.

To be fair, Mahomes as a draft prospect was quite raw at the time, he had a habit of throwing out of his back foot. Say what you will about Reid and his postseason ineptitude but his resume on developing QBs is astounding (see McNabb, Feeley, Kolb, and now Mahomes); idk how Mahomes would fare out if he landed in Chicago under John Fox.