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http://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/18562108/rating-how-much-every-nfl-team-needs-new-qb-2017
Hall of Fame general manager Ron Wolf advocated drafting quarterbacks whether or not teams had obvious needs at the position. Wolf's Green Bay Packers drafted seven of them during his 1991-2001 run as their GM, all while Brett Favre was clearly the team's franchise quarterback. No other team drafted more during that span.
Here we place all 32 teams into categories based on their level of need at the position this offseason.
High urgency to find a starter ASAP
Cleveland Browns
The Browns, having passed up a chance to draft a quarterback second overall last year, can take one first overall this year if they choose. Will it be Mitch Trubisky from North Carolina? Deshaun Watson from Clemson? Robert Griffin III may or may not be back for 2017. Third-round choice Cody Kessler, one of eight players Cleveland drafted before Dallas selected Dak Prescott in 2016, joined Griffin in the concussion protocol last season. Cleveland could keep any of its current QBs in the mix, but can the Browns realistically proceed with any of them as a long-term starter?
New York Jets
The Jets have a third-year, defense-minded head coach coming off a losing season with a new offensive coordinator and no proven quarterback under contract (Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith are free agents and presumably on their way out). That puts the organization in the market for a veteran starter along the lines of Tyrod Taylor, Mike Glennon or whoever else becomes available. It would take more than a leap of faith for the Jets to start Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg.
Gotta do something, but it's not yet clear what
Buffalo Bills
It's looking as though the Bills will not pick up their contract option on Tyrod Taylor, even though he ranks first among Bills QBs since 2006 in Total QBR and passer rating. He is also the only Bills QB over that span with at least eight starts and a non-losing record (he is 14-14). No Taylor would mean no viable starting options for the Bills in 2017.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers' plans remain on hold while the team settles on a GM to work with presumptive new coach Kyle Shanahan. Colin Kaepernick is under contract for one more season at $14.5 million if the 49ers elect to buy time. Shanahan's ties to Kirk Cousins provide a fun diversion while Cousins remains without a contract for 2017. Would San Francisco trade draft picks for the right to pay a solid starter at the top of the market when that starter might struggle with a weaker supporting cast?
One more year to act (at most)
Arizona Cardinals
Carson Palmer has not yet told the Cardinals whether he is returning for another season. If the 37-year-old Palmer retires, the Cardinals would vault into the veteran starter market. If he returns, which seems likely, Arizona could more easily wait another year before addressing the position seriously.
Chicago Bears
The Bears have reached the point in Jay Cutler's contract when they can release him without incurring massive salary-cap consequences. That doesn't mean they have a viable successor after using just one draft choice over the past five years on a quarterback (2014 sixth-rounder David Fales). Chicago has averaged 22.6 points per game while posting a 52-52 record with Cutler in the lineup since 2009, counting the playoffs. The team has averaged 18.1 points per game with a 7-19 record in the games Cutler did not start.
Houston Texans
The Texans have the defense to win now and a head coach coming off three successive 9-7 seasons. They could use a QB upgrade to get over the top, but Brock Osweiler's contract probably keeps him in the mix for 2017. Do the Texans draft a potential successor now? Do they seek a veteran backup to help salvage Osweiler? Do they try Tom Savage as their starter and see if he grows into the role?
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have until shortly after the 2017 draft to decide whether they will pick up the 2018 option on Blake Bortles' contract. Either way, the team needs to prepare itself for heading in another direction. Bortles has frequently played from far behind, which could partly explain why he has thrown 51 interceptions since 2014, one fewer than league leader Philip Rivers. Bortles, however, has 32 career interceptions when his team led or trailed by no more than one score. That is the most in the NFL since 2014.
Minnesota Vikings
Sticking with Sam Bradford for another year (at least) makes sense for the Vikings as they figure out what the future might hold for Teddy Bridgewater. Targeting another potential long-term option in the draft could make sense. Bradford's deal runs through 2017 and will cost $18 million, of which $4 million is guaranteed.
In a category all by themselves
New England Patriots
Tom Brady's exceptional performance at age 39 puts the Patriots in position to bank on him for the next couple of seasons. They could trade Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason if they wanted a quick return. They could keep him for 2017, then use the franchise tag to facilitate a trade in the 2018 offseason if Brady remains atop his game. These are all great options to have. They are also not accidental options. New England used a 2014 second-round choice for Garoppolo and a 2016 third-rounder for Jacoby Brissett, even though Brady was still going strong. Wolf would approve.
Teams likely to stay the course ... unless they don't
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have a couple of developmental quarterbacks in Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch. Are they legitimate Super Bowl contenders with either QB in 2017? That is a question for GM John Elway to weigh while Denver still has a championship defense. Elway doesn't seem inclined to shake up the position, but it's only January and much can change as opportunities arise. Elway has not been afraid to move decisively.
Kansas City Chiefs
The contract Alex Smith signed in 2014 becomes much easier for the Chiefs to exit beginning this offseason. That doesn't mean the Chiefs will make a change. It means they can consider a change more readily. Backup Nick Foles' salary spikes to $10.4 million in 2017, giving the Chiefs something else to think about.
Miami Dolphins
The odds seem to favor Miami giving Ryan Tannehill another season with coach Adam Gase. Tannehill gained momentum late in the season and will not need a long rehab following his season-ending knee injury. Those factors work in his favor. More than $14 million in 2017 salary becomes guaranteed if Tannehill remains on the roster on March 13.
Washington Redskins
The Redskins like Kirk Cousins, but if they loved him, they would have signed him to a long-term extension some time ago. The sides could still get a deal done. The price to keep Cousins will jump significantly if he plays under the franchise tag for another season or two. At what point would Washington consider alternatives through the trade market? That could depend on what market exists in places such as Cleveland or San Francisco.
Should have a couple of years to plan
Los Angeles Chargers
The 35-year-old Philip Rivers is signed through 2019 with a no-trade clause and $11 million in 2017 salary that becomes guaranteed this offseason. He isn't going anywhere anytime soon unless he opts for retirement, but the Chargers do need to plan ahead. Rivers leads the league in interceptions over the past three seasons.
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees is producing at a high enough level to project as the Saints' starter for the next couple of seasons, which is also how long the guaranteed money flows in Brees' contract. Garrett Grayson's outlook as a potential successor took a hit when the Saints relegated the 2015 third-round choice to the practice squad.
New York Giants
Eli Manning has never missed a game because of injury, and he could probably remain viable for years to come if the Giants gave him a real-life running game to go with their upgraded defense. Backup Ryan Nassib can become a free agent this offseason. His former coaches at the NFL (Tom Coughlin) and college (Doug Marrone) levels are working together in Jacksonville. Drafting a quarterback will make sense if Nassib does not return.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger's retirement hints were unconvincing, but it's still time for Pittsburgh to address its backup situation. Landry Jones can become a free agent and might not fit into the salary equation. What about third-stringer Zach Mettenberger? He is one of 43 quarterbacks with at least 10 starts over the past three seasons. Of those, he is the only one without a victory (the 42 others have at least three victories apiece).
QB could be an afterthought
Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan enjoyed his finest NFL season with Matt Schaub playing the role of veteran sounding board. Will the Falcons make re-signing Schaub a priority?
Baltimore Ravens
Joe Flacco is locked in for years to come, but with backup Ryan Mallett unsigned for 2017, the Ravens could sign a veteran backup and/or draft a prospect.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have Derek Anderson under contact as Cam Newton's backup through the 2017 season.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have 2014 fifth-round pick AJ McCarron under contract through 2017 as Andy Dalton's backup. McCarron could have some trade value.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys could trade or otherwise part with Tony Romo, which could bring them into the market for a veteran backup. They could re-sign Mark Sanchez or find another backup if Romo is no longer part of the equation. But they've found their long-term man in Dak Prescott and will need to funnel resources elsewhere.
Detroit Lions
The Lions drafted Jake Rudock in the sixth round last season, but they could still be in the market for a veteran to back up Matthew Stafford. Dan Orlovsky is not signed for 2017.
Green Bay Packers
Staying the course with 2015 fifth-rounder Brett Hundley backing up Aaron Rodgers would not be a bad way to go. Hundley and 2012 seventh-rounder B.J. Coleman are the only quarterbacks the Packers have drafted since Rodgers became their starter in 2008 (they selected Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm that year).
Indianapolis Colts
Backup Scott Tolzien is signed through 2017. The Colts' plans could depend upon their choice to succeed Ryan Grigson as GM.
Los Angeles Rams
New coach Sean McVay could shape the Rams' thinking regarding a backup for starter Jared Goff. Sean Mannion is the only backup signed for 2017.
Oakland Raiders
Connor Cook could move into the No. 2 role behind Derek Carrif/when Matt McGloin finds a better opportunity in free agency.
Philadelphia Eagles
Philly appears set at the position with starter Carson Wentz and backup Chase Daniel. The deal Daniel signed last offseason carries $5 million in guarantees for 2017.
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson is the only quarterback Seattle has drafted during the Pete Carroll/John Schneider era. The Seahawks appear more interested in trading out of position to draft quarterbacks than positioning themselves to select them. They were the team that moved back to enable Denver's selection of Paxton Lynch.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Glennon's coming departure in free agency this offseason could put the Bucs in the market for a veteran backup to work with Jameis Winston.
Tennessee Titans
Marcus Mariota improved in 2016 with Matt Cassel in the veteran backup role. Is that a dynamic Tennessee wants to keep going? Cassel is unsigned for 2017.
Hall of Fame general manager Ron Wolf advocated drafting quarterbacks whether or not teams had obvious needs at the position. Wolf's Green Bay Packers drafted seven of them during his 1991-2001 run as their GM, all while Brett Favre was clearly the team's franchise quarterback. No other team drafted more during that span.
Here we place all 32 teams into categories based on their level of need at the position this offseason.
High urgency to find a starter ASAP
Cleveland Browns
The Browns, having passed up a chance to draft a quarterback second overall last year, can take one first overall this year if they choose. Will it be Mitch Trubisky from North Carolina? Deshaun Watson from Clemson? Robert Griffin III may or may not be back for 2017. Third-round choice Cody Kessler, one of eight players Cleveland drafted before Dallas selected Dak Prescott in 2016, joined Griffin in the concussion protocol last season. Cleveland could keep any of its current QBs in the mix, but can the Browns realistically proceed with any of them as a long-term starter?
New York Jets
The Jets have a third-year, defense-minded head coach coming off a losing season with a new offensive coordinator and no proven quarterback under contract (Ryan Fitzpatrick and Geno Smith are free agents and presumably on their way out). That puts the organization in the market for a veteran starter along the lines of Tyrod Taylor, Mike Glennon or whoever else becomes available. It would take more than a leap of faith for the Jets to start Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg.
Gotta do something, but it's not yet clear what
Buffalo Bills
It's looking as though the Bills will not pick up their contract option on Tyrod Taylor, even though he ranks first among Bills QBs since 2006 in Total QBR and passer rating. He is also the only Bills QB over that span with at least eight starts and a non-losing record (he is 14-14). No Taylor would mean no viable starting options for the Bills in 2017.
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers' plans remain on hold while the team settles on a GM to work with presumptive new coach Kyle Shanahan. Colin Kaepernick is under contract for one more season at $14.5 million if the 49ers elect to buy time. Shanahan's ties to Kirk Cousins provide a fun diversion while Cousins remains without a contract for 2017. Would San Francisco trade draft picks for the right to pay a solid starter at the top of the market when that starter might struggle with a weaker supporting cast?
One more year to act (at most)
Arizona Cardinals
Carson Palmer has not yet told the Cardinals whether he is returning for another season. If the 37-year-old Palmer retires, the Cardinals would vault into the veteran starter market. If he returns, which seems likely, Arizona could more easily wait another year before addressing the position seriously.
Chicago Bears
The Bears have reached the point in Jay Cutler's contract when they can release him without incurring massive salary-cap consequences. That doesn't mean they have a viable successor after using just one draft choice over the past five years on a quarterback (2014 sixth-rounder David Fales). Chicago has averaged 22.6 points per game while posting a 52-52 record with Cutler in the lineup since 2009, counting the playoffs. The team has averaged 18.1 points per game with a 7-19 record in the games Cutler did not start.
Houston Texans
The Texans have the defense to win now and a head coach coming off three successive 9-7 seasons. They could use a QB upgrade to get over the top, but Brock Osweiler's contract probably keeps him in the mix for 2017. Do the Texans draft a potential successor now? Do they seek a veteran backup to help salvage Osweiler? Do they try Tom Savage as their starter and see if he grows into the role?
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have until shortly after the 2017 draft to decide whether they will pick up the 2018 option on Blake Bortles' contract. Either way, the team needs to prepare itself for heading in another direction. Bortles has frequently played from far behind, which could partly explain why he has thrown 51 interceptions since 2014, one fewer than league leader Philip Rivers. Bortles, however, has 32 career interceptions when his team led or trailed by no more than one score. That is the most in the NFL since 2014.
Minnesota Vikings
Sticking with Sam Bradford for another year (at least) makes sense for the Vikings as they figure out what the future might hold for Teddy Bridgewater. Targeting another potential long-term option in the draft could make sense. Bradford's deal runs through 2017 and will cost $18 million, of which $4 million is guaranteed.
In a category all by themselves
New England Patriots
Tom Brady's exceptional performance at age 39 puts the Patriots in position to bank on him for the next couple of seasons. They could trade Jimmy Garoppolo this offseason if they wanted a quick return. They could keep him for 2017, then use the franchise tag to facilitate a trade in the 2018 offseason if Brady remains atop his game. These are all great options to have. They are also not accidental options. New England used a 2014 second-round choice for Garoppolo and a 2016 third-rounder for Jacoby Brissett, even though Brady was still going strong. Wolf would approve.
Teams likely to stay the course ... unless they don't
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have a couple of developmental quarterbacks in Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch. Are they legitimate Super Bowl contenders with either QB in 2017? That is a question for GM John Elway to weigh while Denver still has a championship defense. Elway doesn't seem inclined to shake up the position, but it's only January and much can change as opportunities arise. Elway has not been afraid to move decisively.
Kansas City Chiefs
The contract Alex Smith signed in 2014 becomes much easier for the Chiefs to exit beginning this offseason. That doesn't mean the Chiefs will make a change. It means they can consider a change more readily. Backup Nick Foles' salary spikes to $10.4 million in 2017, giving the Chiefs something else to think about.
Miami Dolphins
The odds seem to favor Miami giving Ryan Tannehill another season with coach Adam Gase. Tannehill gained momentum late in the season and will not need a long rehab following his season-ending knee injury. Those factors work in his favor. More than $14 million in 2017 salary becomes guaranteed if Tannehill remains on the roster on March 13.
Washington Redskins
The Redskins like Kirk Cousins, but if they loved him, they would have signed him to a long-term extension some time ago. The sides could still get a deal done. The price to keep Cousins will jump significantly if he plays under the franchise tag for another season or two. At what point would Washington consider alternatives through the trade market? That could depend on what market exists in places such as Cleveland or San Francisco.
Should have a couple of years to plan
Los Angeles Chargers
The 35-year-old Philip Rivers is signed through 2019 with a no-trade clause and $11 million in 2017 salary that becomes guaranteed this offseason. He isn't going anywhere anytime soon unless he opts for retirement, but the Chargers do need to plan ahead. Rivers leads the league in interceptions over the past three seasons.
New Orleans Saints
Drew Brees is producing at a high enough level to project as the Saints' starter for the next couple of seasons, which is also how long the guaranteed money flows in Brees' contract. Garrett Grayson's outlook as a potential successor took a hit when the Saints relegated the 2015 third-round choice to the practice squad.
New York Giants
Eli Manning has never missed a game because of injury, and he could probably remain viable for years to come if the Giants gave him a real-life running game to go with their upgraded defense. Backup Ryan Nassib can become a free agent this offseason. His former coaches at the NFL (Tom Coughlin) and college (Doug Marrone) levels are working together in Jacksonville. Drafting a quarterback will make sense if Nassib does not return.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger's retirement hints were unconvincing, but it's still time for Pittsburgh to address its backup situation. Landry Jones can become a free agent and might not fit into the salary equation. What about third-stringer Zach Mettenberger? He is one of 43 quarterbacks with at least 10 starts over the past three seasons. Of those, he is the only one without a victory (the 42 others have at least three victories apiece).
QB could be an afterthought
Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan enjoyed his finest NFL season with Matt Schaub playing the role of veteran sounding board. Will the Falcons make re-signing Schaub a priority?
Baltimore Ravens
Joe Flacco is locked in for years to come, but with backup Ryan Mallett unsigned for 2017, the Ravens could sign a veteran backup and/or draft a prospect.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers have Derek Anderson under contact as Cam Newton's backup through the 2017 season.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have 2014 fifth-round pick AJ McCarron under contract through 2017 as Andy Dalton's backup. McCarron could have some trade value.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys could trade or otherwise part with Tony Romo, which could bring them into the market for a veteran backup. They could re-sign Mark Sanchez or find another backup if Romo is no longer part of the equation. But they've found their long-term man in Dak Prescott and will need to funnel resources elsewhere.
Detroit Lions
The Lions drafted Jake Rudock in the sixth round last season, but they could still be in the market for a veteran to back up Matthew Stafford. Dan Orlovsky is not signed for 2017.
Green Bay Packers
Staying the course with 2015 fifth-rounder Brett Hundley backing up Aaron Rodgers would not be a bad way to go. Hundley and 2012 seventh-rounder B.J. Coleman are the only quarterbacks the Packers have drafted since Rodgers became their starter in 2008 (they selected Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm that year).
Indianapolis Colts
Backup Scott Tolzien is signed through 2017. The Colts' plans could depend upon their choice to succeed Ryan Grigson as GM.
Los Angeles Rams
New coach Sean McVay could shape the Rams' thinking regarding a backup for starter Jared Goff. Sean Mannion is the only backup signed for 2017.
Oakland Raiders
Connor Cook could move into the No. 2 role behind Derek Carrif/when Matt McGloin finds a better opportunity in free agency.
Philadelphia Eagles
Philly appears set at the position with starter Carson Wentz and backup Chase Daniel. The deal Daniel signed last offseason carries $5 million in guarantees for 2017.
Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson is the only quarterback Seattle has drafted during the Pete Carroll/John Schneider era. The Seahawks appear more interested in trading out of position to draft quarterbacks than positioning themselves to select them. They were the team that moved back to enable Denver's selection of Paxton Lynch.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Glennon's coming departure in free agency this offseason could put the Bucs in the market for a veteran backup to work with Jameis Winston.
Tennessee Titans
Marcus Mariota improved in 2016 with Matt Cassel in the veteran backup role. Is that a dynamic Tennessee wants to keep going? Cassel is unsigned for 2017.
