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Ranking the NFL's 10 most improved defenses: Why you might be surprised
The Patriots, 49ers and others have made big strides. We dissect the units that have had the biggest gains and look ahead to the rest of the season.
Ranking the NFL's 10 most improved defenses: Why you might be surprised
The anatomy of a defensive improvement can have many different roots, because defense is less predictive from year to year than offense is. Defense can be driven by high turnover rates. It can be improved by players, by new schemes, by better fits. New coaches can bring in all of the above. Player health can be a big portion of the improvement. There's just a lot of ways for a defense to improve or decline in one year.
All you need to know about defensive improvement in the NFL can be summed up in the New England Patriots. They were our 31st-ranked defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) defense in 2017. They were 16th in 2018. And now they are No. 1.
1. New England Patriots
2019: -32.1% (1)
2018: 0.4% (16)
Gain: -32.5%
Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson started to emerge as a tandem last season. Jackson was on fire throughout the playoffs, and the Patriots allowed negative pass defense DVOA in four of their last five games. (Negative DVOA is good for defenses, because it means less scoring.)
The Patriots have simply upped the overall aggressiveness of their defense, bumping the blitz rate to 35.5% from 30.9%, and they feel they have the ability to play man-to-man and not get beat.
The only major addition this offseason was free agent Jamie Collins, who didn't even cost the team a compensation pick to bring back after wearing out his welcome in Cleveland. In fact, the Patriots lost their best 2018 pass-rusher, Trey Flowers, to free agency. It hasn't mattered at all. Collins leads the team in sacks, and former undrafted free agent defensive tackle Adam Butler is tied for second. The Patriots and Baltimore Ravens look to be trailblazers in several ways in the current NFL -- chief among those is getting more and more aggressive with more and better quality defensive backs.
Looking ahead: New England's defense hasn't shown any real signs of slowing down yet. They even made some solid in-game adjustments on Lamar Jackson's Ravens.
2. San Francisco 49ers
2019: -25.1% (2)
2018: 5.7% (23)
Gain: -30.8%
The 49ers mostly have improved by improving the talent. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh didn't have a true edge rusher last season, now he has Nick Bosaand Dee Ford. San Francisco's pressure rate of 34.2% (per SportsRadar data) leads the NFL by almost four whole percentage points. Second-place Pittsburgh is closer to ninth-place Chicago than it is to San Francisco.
A less-heralded secondary outside of Richard Sherman -- as well as Kwon Alexander, who is out with a torn pectoral -- might take a little air out of the tires here, but this has been quite the turnaround from one of last season's more forgettable squads.
Looking ahead: As long as the pass rush continues to succeed, this will be as good a unit as there is in the NFL.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
2019: -12.2% (3)
2018: -0.9% (13)
Gain: -11.3%
This is really about the trade for Minkah Fitzpatrick. Since the Steelers brought him in, they've had a negative defensive DVOA in every game. The highest single-game pass defense DVOA allowed was last week against the Browns, at 20.3%. In 2018, the Steelers had eight games in which they allowed positive DVOA to an offense.
The Steelers were a good pressure defense last year, and they even did a good job of limiting yards after catch. But it has been the coverage that has improved and put them as one of our top three defenses through 11 weeks.
Looking ahead: Pittsburgh appears likely to keep this up, though it is worth noting they have played a really easy schedule of offensive opponents and will continue to do so until Week 14 against Arizona.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2019: 4.5% (22)
2018: 14.8% (32)
Gain: -10.3%
Intriguingly, this is almost all driven by a huge change in run defense DVOA. The Bucs have, by far, the best run defense DVOA in the NFL at -35.0%. Last season, they were at 3.0%, which was the second worst in the NFL. The Bucs overhauled defensive schemes in bringing in Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles.
Bowles has run an aggressive pass defense, blitzing at a 47.7% rate on dropbacks that has almost doubled the rate Tampa ran last season. Of course, that has barely touched their bottom-line pass defense DVOA, but their coverage players haven't been very good, and Vernon Hargreaves was actually released. Vita Vea deserves a lot of praise for his role in buffing this run defense.
Looking ahead: The run defense appears here to stay. Now the question is whether moving on from Hargreaves and some turnover in the secondary can help the pass defense to get better.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
2019: -2.7% (12)
2018: 6.9% (26)
Gain: -9.6%
The Chiefs are the opposite-world Bucs: They have improved one of the league's worst run defenses by only the slightest amount. They've gone from 32nd in run defense DVOA last year to 31st this season.
All of the improvement has come from a better pass defense. Nobody else is really in the league of San Francisco or New England as a pass defense this year, but Kansas City is in fourth place, right on Baltimore's heels for third. The Chiefs haven't allowed more than a 15.4% single-game pass defense DVOA since Week 1 against the Jaguars. While they have 32 sacks, the Chiefs have one of the lowest pressure rates -- 27th, per Sports Info Solutions data -- some indication that with better play from Frank Clark and a healthy Chris Jones they still might have some untapped upside.
Looking ahead: The Chiefs seem likely to remain a solid pass defense for the rest of the season, but they've shown no real indications that they're getting any better at stopping the run. They have faced one of the hardest schedules for a defense in the NFL this season, with their average opponent having a 6.3% offensive DVOA, which is fourth highest in the league.
6. Green Bay Packers
2019: 2.1% (18)
2018: 10.1% (29)
Gain: -8.0%
The Packers are another team that has mostly improved only as a pass defense, as they went from a 20.1% pass defense DVOA in 2018 (28th) to a 3.1% pass defense DVOA in 2019 (16th). Green Bay actually has lost some luster over the past few weeks, with the Raiders, Chargers and Panthers all putting up big scores on them. Before that, the Packers had started the year with five of their six single-game DVOA scores in double-digit negative numbers.
This is, obviously, a lot about better personnel. The Packers spent heavily on Adrian Amos, Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith this year, and the latter two already have combined for 18.5 sacks. Jaire Alexander has made a big performance leap, and rookie Darnell Savage has flashed some special skills when healthy.
Looking ahead: The Packers appear to have a defense that can hang with good teams; however, as with the Chiefs, there's really no reason to believe the run defense will get better. And like the Chiefs, they've played a tough schedule of offensive opponents that has masked their improvement. Their average opponent has a 6.4% offensive DVOA, third highest.
7. New York Jets
2019: -4.0% (11)
2018: 3.3% (21)
Gain: -7.3%
This year, the Jets have taken the leap from solid run defense to elite, as they currently are second in the NFL with a minus-27.3% DVOA while defending the run. Last year, they were only at minus-3.9% (21st). Their run defense was a big factor in their upset of the Dallas Cowboys earlier in the season, perhaps one of a few good memories Jets fans have had this season. Steve McLendon is doing work this year. Imagine if the Jets could keep a middle linebacker healthy.
New York's pass defense DVOA actually has gone up a bit; boy, that Trumaine Johnson contract sure wound up being silly, huh? The only negative (that is, better than average) pass defense DVOA games the Jets have generated this year have been against Buffalo and Washington and during the second New England game, in which they were down 20-0 before they could even blink.
Looking ahead: It is worth noting that the Jets have played a fairly easy schedule and haven't had the sort of talent investment that would make you think this will be something that continues going forward. It also is worth noting that Gregg Williams' defense with the Browns last year was 25th in run defense DVOA allowed .
8. Philadelphia Eagles
2019: -7.2% (6)
2018: 0.0% (15)
Gain: -7.2%
It's a modest improvement, but the Eagles have gone from a 6.7% pass defense DVOA last year (15th) to -0.5% pass defense DVOA this year (12th). They've blitzed a bit more than they used to under Jim Schwartz, currently at 27.2% per SportsRadar, as compared to a league-low 16.0% in 2018.
After getting torched by Case Keenum's Washington outfit in Week 1, the Eagles have allowed just two other teams to hang a positive pass defense DVOA on them: Detroit in Week 3 and Minnesota in Week 6. The cornerbacks are still not elite, but the additional pass rush has largely mitigated some issues.
Looking ahead: Philadelphia has had the league's most variable defense this year, a figure that is largely driven by games like their pummeling of Luke Falk in Week 4. That could lead to this improvement being a bit of a mirage, though we think the extra blitzing will help in the long run.
9. Los Angeles Rams
2019: -6.7% (8)
2018: 0.5% (18)
Gain: -7.2%
A Wade Phillips unit that can stop the run! That's what we have here. The Rams are third in run defense DVOA, at minus-22.9% DVOA. Last year, they were at 1.1% DVOA in that area, 27th in the NFL.
Los Angeles hasn't actually changed up most of its front seven personnel; Clay Matthews is new, and Dante Fowler Jr. is here for a full season. Ndamukong Suhis with Tampa Bay. But the most impactful move for the Rams' run defense has probably been acquiring Eric Weddle, who is second on the team in tackles and is thriving in Phillips' scheme.
The pass defense actually has declined a little bit, which is to be expected given the shuffling around of what essentially became a Marcus Peters-for-Jalen Ramsey swap, in addition to Aqib Talib and John Johnson missing significant time this season. The Rams still have shown plenty of high-upside games, with three pass defense DVOA single-game scores better than -24%. But they've also been torched by Seattle and Tampa Bay.
Looking ahead: Phillips' defenses haven't normally been this good against the run, and the Rams have played an average opponent offensive DVOA of -5.3%, 28th in the NFL. This could be a bit of a fluke.
10. Atlanta Falcons
2019: 7.7% (25)
2018: 13.3% (31)
Gain: -5.6%
So, this is a fun one because it's almost all based on the results of the past two weeks. The Falcons' defense was scorched-earth bad before the bye. It had allowed pass defense DVOA ratings above 36% in seven of Atlanta's first eight games. But since coming back from the bye, with Dan Quinn giving more playcalling power to his assistants, the Falcons have posted back-to-back games of minus-19.9% and minus-48.2% pass defense DVOA scores. They've sacked Kyle Allen and Drew Brees 11 times during the past two weeks, more sacks than they had over the first eight games of the season.
It was very easy to see a path for Quinn to be dismissed before the past two weeks. Now, on the upswing and with the potential of a solid defense, maybe the Falcons will get hot enough to convince everyone to give him another year in charge.
Looking ahead: The Falcons are always out to tease us, but there are real reasons to believe that the playcalling and coverage have improved coming out of the bye week. We're more encouraged by this than we are the random six-week stretch of good play they sometimes put together.