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What is the NFL's best potential head coaching job?
Including any possible openings one could imagine, accounting for potential retirements or even coaching trades, how would the jobs stack up? It's an inexact science, and obviously there would be differences of opinion over which owners and general managers would be the best bosses. But after speaking to some long-time NFL execs I trust, who have no vested stake in how any of these openings would be filled, and seeing how they might rank them, one personnel man suggested we make the process a little more analytical.
So together we put together a formula to weight the overall strength of each franchise, and create a scale to account for things coaches look for in an opening (geography, ability to have or land a quarterback, current roster strength, difficulty of winning the division, etc). In some cases we could rely on existing statistics and/or metrics (cap space, pending free agents, for instance) and in others we had to apply numbers ourselves after nailing down the merits of each team. I was sworn to secrecy by my co-conspirator, who I suspect may be using a similar exercise on his own to evaluate potential candidates and/or openings in the future, but suffice to say we looked at seven categories, ranked from 1-11, with the lowest score indicating the best situation (i.e., best location of job, best owner to work for, etc).
Ultimately, I don't expect there to be 11 head coaching openings. I'd bet on roughly half that number. And in many cases, Week 17 could play a huge role in whether one or more of these an owners begins sniffing around for an upgrade. And there is a very real chance the Saints trade coach Asshole Face, which is why New Orleans is among the 11 teams. In addition, many coaches believe Bruce Arians might retire, though he has rebuffed that notion. And should the Lions lose a third straight to miss the playoffs, one would have to consider that possibility, especially after rookie GM Bob Quinn mulled replacing Jim Caldwell a year ago, and knowing that this might be his shot to land a coveted coordinator like Josh McDaniels, his former colleague in New England.
So all the hot coaching candidate need to be weighing options to determine which jobs you would want to interview for first, etc. We took a shot at conducting our own.
There were two ties, including one for first after we complied the numbers. Ultimately, outside of the Cardinals coming in tied as the "best" job, I'm not sure much really surprised us in the end. It broke down clustered as you might expect, with a group of four teams shaping up as the most attractive, the Saints kind of in the middle, and then five teams bringing up the rear not separated by many points ... except the Browns, who are dead last by a wide margin.
Los Angeles Rams: 26 points
Location, location, location! If you have to work 80 hours a week, at least your wife and kids can hang on the beach. The owner has to spend to win now, generally stays out of the way and there is a sense the right coach could convince Stan Kroenke of a need to have more say in personnel matters. This is a blank slate and whatever you might think of Jared Goff, his salary isn't going to cripple the team and he could be gone in two years. They have some beasts on defense, the pass rush factor is strong. They move into a football palace in two years. The metric working most against them? Of the 11 teams here, their offensive talent ranked 10th, and the QB is an unknown quantity.
Arizona Cardinals: 26 points
They have work to do to keep guys like Calais Campbell and Chandler Jones, and Carson Palmer appears to some to have hit the wall ... but weighed against the other options this is a prime destination. GM Steve Keim has a super strong reputation and ownership, since Bill Bidwill stepped aside in favor of his family, is now a major plus, especially when weighed against the rest of this bunch. Despite this franchise's need for a QB of the future soon, should Arians' family urge him to move on, this job came in within the top five across the board.
San Diego Chargers: 29 points
We did this assuming the team is moving to Los Angeles, because all of my reporting since Week 1 continues to point strongly in that direction. Ownership needs to make a splash and capture a new market. Philip Riversshould have a few years left. They have amassed some intriguing individual talent. But owner Dean Spanos is married to his power structure -- so no coach is going to get the full keys to the kingdom -- which put the math on this one just behind the top two but well within range.
Indianapolis Colts: 31 points
Andrew Luck, playing in a traditionally weak division and having a dome work in Indy's favor. The owner is a bit of a wild card, however, but if Jim Irsay ends up in the market for a new coach, then he's most likely looking for a new GM as well. So a proven coach might get to take over the building, though Irsay has resisted this idea in the past. They need to add bite on defense -- especially the pass rush -- which holds them back.
Detroit Lions: 32 points
Matt Stafford has played like an MVP candidate, and this is storied franchise with an owner who won't meddle in a division with only one quarterback you have to fear (though it is Aaron Rodgers). Quinn had a nice first year making personnel decisions and while the roster still needs lots of work, particularly on defense, there is reason for optimism. Had this job opened up a year ago, top candidates would have been salivating, and if it opens this year the same will hold true.
New Orleans Saints: 39 points
All the uncertainty makes this one difficult to assess. Drew Brees has one year left, owner Tom Benson is in declining health with legal wars in the past over who takes over the team, and his wife is unproven in the role. The power structure there is not the norm and they still have issues on defense, though not as many as some might think -- the defensive line has big-time potential. And The Big Easy ain't for everyone, especially those who have young kids.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 50 points
It's clear the front office would rather not blow out quarterback Blake Bortles, though they say they are open to it. There is no tradition of winning and owner Shahid Khan has been disinclined to alter the front office structure. Firing their coach on the team plane is the kind of thing that won't sit well with other coaches, and something we tried to quantify. The overall market's stability is a question mark, too.
New York Jets: 52 points
I don't believe this job opens up, based on everything I've heard, though the recent run of blowout losses won't help Todd Bowles. When I did my own gut-reaction list before talking to others, I figured this would be middle of the pack. Owner Woody Johnson hasn't been the most stable owner, and the pressure to win right away in New York can be hinder long-term sustainability. They have a big quarterback problem, too. Still, at key positions like defensive line and receiver there is abundant talent, and the transition to youth will be underway.
Buffalo Bills: 53 points
Short and long-term issues, and western New York in the winter isn't exactly the place to be. The stadium is out of date and the team hasn't been to the playoffs in 17 years. Owner Terry Pegula is still getting his feet under him it seems, and most problematic, the owner seems wedded to a front office set up that has been prone to fractions and highly-questionable decisions, all of which which would top candidates significant pause. It's been an in-fighting disaster through the Doug Marrone and Rex Ryan regimes, yet ownership refuses to make sweeping changes to its decisions makers, which will likely bodes more of the same moving forward. The Bills actually were middle of the pack at QB, but that's with Tyrod Taylor running the show. And that is deceiving because the front office does not intend to pick up his option. There are people in the organization high on Cardale Jones.
San Francisco 49ers: 53 points
Frankly, I thought this job would score much closer to the Browns. The issues at ownership are impossible to get around, outside of the brief Jim Harbaugh era they have had great difficulty luring top candidates despite a rich history. They also don't have a quarterback. They will be picking high, however, and with GM Trent Baalke almost certainly on his way out, a new coach would come in at a time when he could likely reshape the organization and command significant authority.
Cleveland Browns: 72 points
Have accomplished virtually nothing under owner Jimmy Haslam, and this coaching job has long been viewed as a career killer. I doubt coach Hue Jackson would lose a power struggle in the offseason, so I don't think this job opens up even at 1-15, but if it did man, good luck getting qualified people. No one has done losing and dysfunction like the Browns, and I keep waiting to see what rock bottom is. They came in dead last in five of the seven categories.
I was taken aback a bit by the disparity of points and how it basically was clustered around a couple of vales (with 7 being the best possible score and 77 the worst possible). In the end, if you have a quarterback or something close to one, you were around 30 on the scale and if you lacked a QB and a proven competent owner, you ended up around 50. Regardless, you can expect the candidates positioned well enough to call their own shots -- Josh McDaniels, Kyle Shanahan, Jon Gruden, Asshole Face, and the like -- to be manning those positions in the top half of this list if they take new jobs in 2017.
What is the NFL's best potential head coaching job?
Including any possible openings one could imagine, accounting for potential retirements or even coaching trades, how would the jobs stack up? It's an inexact science, and obviously there would be differences of opinion over which owners and general managers would be the best bosses. But after speaking to some long-time NFL execs I trust, who have no vested stake in how any of these openings would be filled, and seeing how they might rank them, one personnel man suggested we make the process a little more analytical.
So together we put together a formula to weight the overall strength of each franchise, and create a scale to account for things coaches look for in an opening (geography, ability to have or land a quarterback, current roster strength, difficulty of winning the division, etc). In some cases we could rely on existing statistics and/or metrics (cap space, pending free agents, for instance) and in others we had to apply numbers ourselves after nailing down the merits of each team. I was sworn to secrecy by my co-conspirator, who I suspect may be using a similar exercise on his own to evaluate potential candidates and/or openings in the future, but suffice to say we looked at seven categories, ranked from 1-11, with the lowest score indicating the best situation (i.e., best location of job, best owner to work for, etc).
Ultimately, I don't expect there to be 11 head coaching openings. I'd bet on roughly half that number. And in many cases, Week 17 could play a huge role in whether one or more of these an owners begins sniffing around for an upgrade. And there is a very real chance the Saints trade coach Asshole Face, which is why New Orleans is among the 11 teams. In addition, many coaches believe Bruce Arians might retire, though he has rebuffed that notion. And should the Lions lose a third straight to miss the playoffs, one would have to consider that possibility, especially after rookie GM Bob Quinn mulled replacing Jim Caldwell a year ago, and knowing that this might be his shot to land a coveted coordinator like Josh McDaniels, his former colleague in New England.
So all the hot coaching candidate need to be weighing options to determine which jobs you would want to interview for first, etc. We took a shot at conducting our own.
There were two ties, including one for first after we complied the numbers. Ultimately, outside of the Cardinals coming in tied as the "best" job, I'm not sure much really surprised us in the end. It broke down clustered as you might expect, with a group of four teams shaping up as the most attractive, the Saints kind of in the middle, and then five teams bringing up the rear not separated by many points ... except the Browns, who are dead last by a wide margin.
Location, location, location! If you have to work 80 hours a week, at least your wife and kids can hang on the beach. The owner has to spend to win now, generally stays out of the way and there is a sense the right coach could convince Stan Kroenke of a need to have more say in personnel matters. This is a blank slate and whatever you might think of Jared Goff, his salary isn't going to cripple the team and he could be gone in two years. They have some beasts on defense, the pass rush factor is strong. They move into a football palace in two years. The metric working most against them? Of the 11 teams here, their offensive talent ranked 10th, and the QB is an unknown quantity.
They have work to do to keep guys like Calais Campbell and Chandler Jones, and Carson Palmer appears to some to have hit the wall ... but weighed against the other options this is a prime destination. GM Steve Keim has a super strong reputation and ownership, since Bill Bidwill stepped aside in favor of his family, is now a major plus, especially when weighed against the rest of this bunch. Despite this franchise's need for a QB of the future soon, should Arians' family urge him to move on, this job came in within the top five across the board.
We did this assuming the team is moving to Los Angeles, because all of my reporting since Week 1 continues to point strongly in that direction. Ownership needs to make a splash and capture a new market. Philip Riversshould have a few years left. They have amassed some intriguing individual talent. But owner Dean Spanos is married to his power structure -- so no coach is going to get the full keys to the kingdom -- which put the math on this one just behind the top two but well within range.
Andrew Luck, playing in a traditionally weak division and having a dome work in Indy's favor. The owner is a bit of a wild card, however, but if Jim Irsay ends up in the market for a new coach, then he's most likely looking for a new GM as well. So a proven coach might get to take over the building, though Irsay has resisted this idea in the past. They need to add bite on defense -- especially the pass rush -- which holds them back.
Matt Stafford has played like an MVP candidate, and this is storied franchise with an owner who won't meddle in a division with only one quarterback you have to fear (though it is Aaron Rodgers). Quinn had a nice first year making personnel decisions and while the roster still needs lots of work, particularly on defense, there is reason for optimism. Had this job opened up a year ago, top candidates would have been salivating, and if it opens this year the same will hold true.
All the uncertainty makes this one difficult to assess. Drew Brees has one year left, owner Tom Benson is in declining health with legal wars in the past over who takes over the team, and his wife is unproven in the role. The power structure there is not the norm and they still have issues on defense, though not as many as some might think -- the defensive line has big-time potential. And The Big Easy ain't for everyone, especially those who have young kids.
It's clear the front office would rather not blow out quarterback Blake Bortles, though they say they are open to it. There is no tradition of winning and owner Shahid Khan has been disinclined to alter the front office structure. Firing their coach on the team plane is the kind of thing that won't sit well with other coaches, and something we tried to quantify. The overall market's stability is a question mark, too.
I don't believe this job opens up, based on everything I've heard, though the recent run of blowout losses won't help Todd Bowles. When I did my own gut-reaction list before talking to others, I figured this would be middle of the pack. Owner Woody Johnson hasn't been the most stable owner, and the pressure to win right away in New York can be hinder long-term sustainability. They have a big quarterback problem, too. Still, at key positions like defensive line and receiver there is abundant talent, and the transition to youth will be underway.
Short and long-term issues, and western New York in the winter isn't exactly the place to be. The stadium is out of date and the team hasn't been to the playoffs in 17 years. Owner Terry Pegula is still getting his feet under him it seems, and most problematic, the owner seems wedded to a front office set up that has been prone to fractions and highly-questionable decisions, all of which which would top candidates significant pause. It's been an in-fighting disaster through the Doug Marrone and Rex Ryan regimes, yet ownership refuses to make sweeping changes to its decisions makers, which will likely bodes more of the same moving forward. The Bills actually were middle of the pack at QB, but that's with Tyrod Taylor running the show. And that is deceiving because the front office does not intend to pick up his option. There are people in the organization high on Cardale Jones.
Frankly, I thought this job would score much closer to the Browns. The issues at ownership are impossible to get around, outside of the brief Jim Harbaugh era they have had great difficulty luring top candidates despite a rich history. They also don't have a quarterback. They will be picking high, however, and with GM Trent Baalke almost certainly on his way out, a new coach would come in at a time when he could likely reshape the organization and command significant authority.
Have accomplished virtually nothing under owner Jimmy Haslam, and this coaching job has long been viewed as a career killer. I doubt coach Hue Jackson would lose a power struggle in the offseason, so I don't think this job opens up even at 1-15, but if it did man, good luck getting qualified people. No one has done losing and dysfunction like the Browns, and I keep waiting to see what rock bottom is. They came in dead last in five of the seven categories.
I was taken aback a bit by the disparity of points and how it basically was clustered around a couple of vales (with 7 being the best possible score and 77 the worst possible). In the end, if you have a quarterback or something close to one, you were around 30 on the scale and if you lacked a QB and a proven competent owner, you ended up around 50. Regardless, you can expect the candidates positioned well enough to call their own shots -- Josh McDaniels, Kyle Shanahan, Jon Gruden, Asshole Face, and the like -- to be manning those positions in the top half of this list if they take new jobs in 2017.
