Rams: 5 Keys To Success

[RamBill]

Rams: 5 Keys To Success

By Frank "Dubs" Dobozy @Bozy1313 on Jun 9, 2015, 8:22a 1

http://www.turfshowtimes.com/2015/6/9/8692693/2015-st-louis-rams-five-keys-to-success


Can the St. Louis Rams finish with a winning record - and compete for a playoff berth - in 2015? If the Rams can show marked improvement in 5 key areas, the answer to the question may very well be a resounding "YES".

A Tale Of Two Teams

There was a semblance of Jekyll (the first half) and Hyde (the second half) in most of the Rams' games last season. The teams' point differential in the first half of games: plus 58. In the second half of games: minus 88. The Rams were leading or tied at the half in 11 games last season. The Rams' record was 6-5 in those games. The Rams lost all 5 games where they were behind at the half. In fact, the Rams didn't win a game in the past two seasons unless they were tied or winning at half-time.

The following is a breakdown of the Rams' points scored/points allowed in 2014 by quarter:

1st Q - 95-42
2nd Q - 98-93
3rd Q - 48-106
4th Q - 83-113

Four issues stand out from the statistics and 2014 scoring breakdown:

The Rams played winning football in the first half of most of their games...and losing football in the second half.
For two full seasons, the Rams were unable to mount a comeback from a half-time deficit to win a game.
The Rams' defense appeared to wither as the game progressed, giving up more points in each successive quarter.
The third quarter was easily the Rams' worst over the course of the season, especially on offense.

For the most part, the issues can be attributed to the Rams' less-than-stellar offense (especially QB play) and being out-coached by opposing teams. As noted last week, the Rams' defense actually ranked 5th in the NFL in points allowed (when adjusted to eliminate touchdowns scored by opponents on fumble/interception returns and on special teams).

The solution to the 3rd issue is keeping the defense off the field, so the unit isn't gassed in the second halves of games. It entails improving time of possession and the number of sustained drives by the offense. These are goals Jeff Fisher will be attempting to achieve this coming season with a more balanced, run-heavy, ball control offensive philosophy.

To rectify the remaining three issues, the Rams are banking on numerous changes made to the offense in the offseason: a new offensive coordinator (Frank Cignetti), establishment of a clear offensive identity, and the additions of QB Nick Foles, RB Todd Gurley, plus 4 skilled rookie run-blockers. In 2014, the Rams were victimized all too often by opponents' half-time adjustments, mediocre QB play at critical times, erratic play calling, stalled drives and questionable second-half game management.
Turnovers

It's a widely held belief that winning the turnover battle is important to a teams success on the field. Turnovers have played a significant role in the Rams' fortunes over the past two seasons. The Rams counted 13 wins in the 2013-14 seasons combined. In 9 of those victories the Rams had a positive turnover differential (and a zero differential in the other 4 wins). They didn't win a single game in the last two seasons without at least being on even terms in the turnover battle.

No facet of the game hurt the Rams more in 2014 than turnovers. The Rams coughed up the ball 27 times last season (24th in the NFL). 8 fumbles/interceptions were returned for touchdowns (by far the worst total in the league). QB play was the chief culprit. QB's Austin Davis and Shaun Hill combined for 16 interceptions and 4 lost fumbles last season.

The Rams acquired QB Nick Foles from the Eagles in the offseason. The Rams are looking for Foles to produce numbers closer to his 2013 results (2 interceptions in 317 attempts) than his 2014 results (10 interceptions in 311 attempts). The Rams' move to a more ground-based attack should result in fewer turnovers this coming season. In 2014, the Rams' RB's were responsible for only 4 lost fumbles. Ball control and ball protection are precisely what Jeff Fisher wants from his offense in 2015.

Penalties

The Rams led the NFL in penalty yards last season (1139). They were penalized 257 yards more than their opponents (3rd-worst in the league). For a team that would like to keep the ball on the ground, penalties all too often force that team into a passing situation. Penalties kill drives, contribute to bad field position and can change momentum in a game.

The Rams just don't have the kind of offensive firepower necessary to easily negate the effects of a high-volume, ill-timed number of penalties. They'll need to be a smarter and much more disciplined football team in 2015: minimizing costly penalties while still retaining their "edginess" and aggressiveness.
Running The Football

For all the talk of "Fisherball" and a strong rushing attack, the Rams haven't exactly run the ball down opponents' throats during Jeff Fisher's tenure. 2014 was no exception. The Rams ranked 20th in the league in rushing yards per game (102.2), and were tied for 16th in yards per carry (4.1).

The Rams' selections in the 2015 NFL Draft made one thing abundantly clear: they will emphasize the running game this coming season (and beyond). Selecting RB Todd Gurley and four run-blocking offensive linemen leaves little doubt about what the Rams' offensive identity will be in 2015. The Rams are gambling on a powerful rushing attack to help solve their offensive woes. The young offensive line gelling and maturing quickly holds the key to a successful running game for the Rams in 2015.

The goal for the offense should be to reach the number 50 in any game (a combination of pass completions and rushing attempts totalling the number 50). To successfully establish the running game and balance the offense, the breakdown of rushing/passing plays and yardage should look close to the following:

Rushing: 32 attempts - 4.3 ypc - 138 yards rushing.

Passing: 29 attempts - 18 completions - 62% completion % - 212 yards passing.

Total Yards: 350 per game - Points Per Game: 23.0

As Jeff Fisher noted shortly after Day 2 of the 2015 NFL Draft:

"We're trying to become more physical on offense. We did that today. We got two guys who are gonna go downfield and finish blocks -- and clear space for that guy we got last night to do what he does. It's not complicated: Hand it off, run play-action passes, get the ball out quickly, keep your defense off the field."

Secondary coach Chuck Cecil summed up Fisher's thoughts in his own words:

"We're gonna be going old-school on 'em."


Winning Early And Often

For the Rams to have a legitimate shot at a winning season (and a playoff berth) they must get off to a strong start. Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams' record in the first five games of the season has progressively worsened from year-to-year: 3-2 in 2012, 2-3 in 2013 and 1-4 in 2014.

The Rams begin their 2015 regular season with a tough slate of games:

Week 1 - vs. Seattle
Week 2 - @ Washington
Week 3 - vs. Pittsburgh
Week 4 - @ Arizona
Week 5 - @ Green Bay

4 of the 5 teams made the playoffs last season (all but Washington). Given the quality of their opponents to start the season, a 3-2 record is realistic and attainable. After those 5 games, the Rams enter the softest part of their schedule, with home games versus Cleveland, San Francisco and Chicago, plus road games at Minnesota and Baltimore.

If the Rams can get off to a 3-2 start, a 7-3 record after 10 games is an attainable goal. The Rams can't afford to (again) begin the season with a 1-4 record. If they falter early, the Rams will be hard pressed to finish the season with better than a .500 record. How the Rams fare in their first five games will likely set the tone for the remainder of the season. I believe the key word in this area is "preparation".

That's on Jeff Fisher and his coaching staff.

 

[DaveFan'51]

The following is a breakdown of the Rams' points scored/points allowed in 2014 by quarter:

1st Q - 95-42
2nd Q - 98-93
3rd Q - 48-106
4th Q - 83-113

So, we need to play about the same in the 1st and 2nd quarters, and ' Flip' those numbers in the 3rd and 4th quarters! Simple, "Make it so Mr. Spock"!

 

[Robocop]

11 games with a lead or tied at half!! shows how incompetent Schotty was at adapting to opposing defenses. who cares how great those 10-15 scripted plays are when you can't think on you're feet in the 2nd half. OR run the ball enough to hold a lead. penalties fucked us over and over but at least a third to half were from blown calls and/or biased refs. like the should be safety call on Romo that turned into a defensive holding call on our defensive end! corruption at its finest.

 

[Akrasian]

Yes, there were bad calls, but those happened in both halves. But it was blatantly obvious that the Rams would come out after the half without having made offensive adjustments. Idiocy. There were many reasons I didn't like Schotty as a coach for the Rams, but the most amazing is how every week he would apparently take a nap in the locker room at half time, instead of making adjustments like every other professionals or amateur coach would do. Hell, if nothing else, the Rams should have had a different set of 10-15 scripted plays to roll out after the half, if Schotty was incapable of making adjustments on the fly. Throw something different at the defense - all the better if it actually reflected what the defense was doing poorly in the first half and took advantage of it. But any change would have been better than what actually happened game after game.

 

[den-the-coach]

This was my knock on Brian Schottenheimer who seemed to script the plays well, but could not coordinate on the fly, hence the lack of half time adjustments.

I have more faith in the Cignetti, Boras & Weinke trio to have the offense better after half time. The defense also has to work on not giving up big plays, it was not because of the offense that the Rams lost to the Giants.

There will be some growing pains with the offensive line and granted the first five games will be great tests, however, if not now, when? And if not us, who?

 

[Rams43]

This was my knock on Brian Schottenheimer who seemed to script the plays well, but could not coordinate on the fly, hence the lack of half time adjustments.

I have more faith in the Cignetti, Boras & Weinke trio to have the offense better after half time. The defense also has to work on not giving up big plays, it was not because of the offense that the Rams lost to the Giants.

There will be some growing pains with the offensive line and granted the first five games will be great tests, however, if not now, when? And if not us, who?

Amen, den.

I think the synergy of Cigs, Foles, Weinke, Boras, and Garcia are gonna be a breath of fresh air for our O.

Early player and beat reporter feedback from OTA's is most encouraging.

 

[Rmfnlt]

I think the article accurately describes what has held the Rams back.

Lots of changes on offense this year (players, coaches, etc.). So, no more smae 'ol, same 'ol. I really like that!

Hopefully, it all clicks early on so they don't get in any hole.

It's going to be an exciting year!

 

[RamzFanz]

If they falter early, the Rams will be hard pressed to finish the season with better than a .500 record. How the Rams fare in their first five games will likely set the tone for the remainder of the season.

I can't agree with this. Anyone who does is going to be pretty upset by the bye week, IMHO.

• Gurley will be a post bye week addition, if not in actuality, probably in production.
• The O-line will take time and we are playing strong defenses. Rookies are going to play games they won't be fully prepared to play.
• Foles will need time to settle in.
• The O has a new version of the previously used scheme. They will glitch.
• If the O is struggling, which I believe it will, the D will be gassed again late in games.

I'm not being negative, I just don't agree that the meat of this season will come from a fast start. A 2-3 or 3-2 would be phenomenal. I can see a win against Seattle because we are home and tend to play them close and, of course, with Thordaddy raining thunderbolts down on them. Rams will stomp Washington. Rams won't be facing Bell so I'm hoping that spells a win at home against the steelers.

I can't see beating the Cards and GB away in the first 5 games though.

I fully expect the Rams to explode after the bye with epic homer enthusiasm! A softer schedule with everything coming together and Gurley coming into his own. Then I'm betting on a strong finish beating the Cards at home and Seahawks and Niners away. Sweep the Hawks and Niners and make them cry!

Rams could very well lose more games in the first 5 than the rest of the season in my highly biased opinion and I'm not getting worried before the bye unless they goose egg or only win 1.

 

[Mojo Ram]

That write up is spot on. Top to bottom.

 

[Ram Quixote]

11 games with a lead or tied at half!! shows how incompetent Schotty was at adapting to opposing defenses. who cares how great those 10-15 scripted plays are when you can't think on you're feet in the 2nd half. OR run the ball enough to hold a lead. penalties fucked us over and over but at least a third to half were from blown calls and/or biased refs. like the should be sack of Romo that turned into a defensive holding call on our defensive end! corruption at its finest.

FIFY

 

[raised_fisT]

Need to be able to find ways to punch it in when in the red zone. I'm not a big fan of this red zone incompetence.

 

[Afro Ram]

Wow. That was by far the best article I've read in a long time. Someone actually did their own homework instead of cutting out quotes and clips from other articles. Very informative.