Pick 6 Breakdown

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Spider2YB

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View: https://x.com/haydenwinks/status/2104953760598622624?s=46


This is a really good look of what happened. We ran the exact same play twice before and Denver covered it differently than they did on the pick 6. Honestly I think Hufanga went rogue and did his own thing. It wasn’t part of the actual coverage. If you freeze frame it at :13–when Stafford is letting the ball go—Hufanga is still directly in front of Higbee. It looks like he has him in man coverage. But Hufanga guesses the quick out to Kyren is coming and just lets Higbee run by him. They did the exact same thing on the next drive but McVay adjusted and had Kyren break in instead of out and it was a chunk play that set up the Mumpfield bomb.

One of the things that makes Stafford (and other great QBs) great is the ability to throw with anticipation. Letting go of the ball before the player is actually open and putting it in a spot where they become open. Because if you wait until they are wide open, it’s too late. You actually can hear Seattle DB’s praising Stafford for this trait during the Super Bowl when they were mic’d up. They said Maye didn’t have that skill yet and that’s why he was so much easier to play against than Stafford. But unfortunately interceptions like this come along with it. Especially when there’s a zero blitz and less than a second to throw. But honestly just hell of a play by Hufanga. Tremendous display of football IQ.
 

View: https://x.com/haydenwinks/status/2104953760598622624?s=46


This is a really good look of what happened. We ran the exact same play twice before and Denver covered it differently than they did on the pick 6. Honestly I think Hufanga went rogue and did his own thing. It wasn’t part of the actual coverage. If you freeze frame it at :13–when Stafford is letting the ball go—Hufanga is still directly in front of Higbee. It looks like he has him in man coverage. But Hufanga guesses the quick out to Kyren is coming and just lets Higbee run by him. They did the exact same thing on the next drive but McVay adjusted and had Kyren break in instead of out and it was a chunk play that set up the Mumpfield bomb.

One of the things that makes Stafford (and other great QBs) great is the ability to throw with anticipation. Letting go of the ball before the player is actually open and putting it in a spot where they become open. You actually can hear Seattle DB’s praising Stafford for this trait during the Super Bowl when they were mic’d up. They said Maye didn’t have that skill yet and that’s why he was so much easier to play against than Stafford. But unfortunately interceptions like this come along with it. Especially when there’s a zero blitz and less than a second to throw. But honestly just hell of a play by Hufanga. Tremendous display of football IQ.

An example of going to the well too many times. A great call would have been a wheel route or an out and up if Stafford would have had time for that.
 
An example of going to the well too many times. A great call would have been a wheel route or an out and up if Stafford would have had time for that.

I think this is McVays and Stafford's blind spot at times. If it's working don't adjust or change just keep going with it. Against bad teams maybe you can get away with that, but against top notch teams you have to constantly adjust. I'll tip my cap to the Bronco's defensive coordinator for setting a trap for Stafford and McVay.
 
An example of going to the well too many times. A great call would have been a wheel route or an out and up if Stafford would have had time for that.
He didn’t have time for a longer developing route, but if you watch the 4th play in the clip, which was the very next drive, we ran the same play and had Kyren break in on an arrow route and we hit it for a big gain. The play right before the Mumpfield score.
 
I think this is McVays and Stafford's blind spot at times. If it's working don't adjust or change just keep going with it. Against bad teams maybe you can get away with that, but against top notch teams you have to constantly adjust. I'll tip my cap to the Bronco's defensive coordinator for setting a trap for Stafford and McVay.

If it's working don't adjust or change just keep going with it.
Wish he was doing that with the running game when it's working.
 
Looked like Higs screened the defender, so Stafford didn't see how close he was. They changed up the coverage and had a free blitzer coming right at Stafford. The pass was too far inside Williams. If it had been thrown to the sideline, he wouldn't have intercepted it. The Broncos were ready for this play.


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Do you see the guy WIDE OPEN in the middle of the field?

Can't just lock onto 1 guy.
I'm not saying he always does it, but Stafford does have a tendency to lock onto certain guys.
 
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Do you see the guy WIDE OPEN in the middle of the field?

Can't just lock onto 1 guy.
I'm not saying he always does it, but Stafford does have a tendency to lock onto certain guys.
Do you see the free blitzer right in his face? Higbee didn’t come open until after Stafford let go of the ball. He didn’t have time to see Higbee come wide open. He had to make the throw before either one was open. He just guessed wrong.
 
Truth is QB's always make mistakes, even the best, and sometimes defenses have the perfect playcall against that offense.
Agreed. But it is also why they make the big bucks. And the other side of that coin includes getting a lion's share of the praise and blame.

What happens if he just throws it away over his head instead. We're in great field position. Even worst case we have a shot to pin Denver's shit ass offense back with a punt to the corner and end up with another good possession with good field position thereafter. But instead we give them six.
 
Pause it at 14 seconds, and note how far back Kyren has to turn to the inside to attempt to catch the ball.

I don't think this was Stafford's best decision ever - if he knew it was truly cover zero, that middle of the field route would have been one to look for. And the Broncos disguised it well, leaving the safety 15 yards off in man coverage.

But if Stafford throws a ball out in front of Kyren, Hufunga MAY knock it down, but it is more likely that Kyren catches it and turns up field....probably scoring a TD.

Mental and physical mistakes both happen....I always feel a little better when its a physical mistake (i.e. just a bad throw), and after looking at that replay multiple times, I think this was 80% physical, 20% mental.....probably a better option to throw to, but ultimately, a better throw probably gets the job done there
 
I've noticed Stafford has had problems in the left flat quite a bit. Against the niners earlier Warner almost got a pick 6, and in seasons past he's made some bad throws in that area.
 
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Do you see the free blitzer right in his face? Higbee didn’t come open until after Stafford let go of the ball. He didn’t have time to see Higbee come wide open. He had to make the throw before either one was open. He just guessed wrong.

True...but that's why he needs to read the defense pre-snap to "see" the possibilities.

And Stafford leads the NFL and all of history with most pick-6's, so the evidence leans towards him being at fault.
 
Do you see the guy WIDE OPEN in the middle of the field?

Can't just lock onto 1 guy.
I'm not saying he always does it, but Stafford does have a tendency to lock onto certain guys.
I saw that too, but in real time, not saying, it would’ve been an easy throw with the rush.
 
We have this phrase at my work:

If you chop a lot of wood, you're bound to get some splinters

I love the phrase because In our work it’s impossible to avoid mistakes and some people prefer not making a mistake over being productive.

I’d rather my QB be aggressive and make a few mistakes then a QB that can’t pull the trigger and renders the offense anemic.

Same thing on defense. Denver is willing to roll the dice with the blitz and hurry some passes over pacificity. Our defense sits back and plays scared. This allows QBs to settle in and execute at the highest level.

That Stafford pick was one play in a game that we lost for many other reasons.
 
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That Stafford pick was one play in a game that we lost for many other reasons.

That's true...and Stafford did make it up with a quick TD right after that.
I'm just thinking that the int could have (should have) been avoided.
 
That pick 6 gave Denver the momentum for the remainder of the game. It was a huge play and factor in why we lost. The fact that Stafford unfucked himself and led us right down to score the next drive is beside the point. I am glad he did. But a conservative approach by our QB and not spotting those clowns six there was the right approach because you don't give the opponent momentum. And even worst case if we punt it there we had a chance to pin them back deep. Though of course the chances of our teams pulling that off sounds crazy lol.
 
An example of going to the well too many times. A great call would have been a wheel route or an out and up if Stafford would have had time for that.
Same thing vs Seattle. They gotta stop going to that play all the time. Teams are sitting on it.