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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/04/10/will-smith-murder-new-orleans-saints-nfl
New Orleans Mourns: ‘No Will’
The murder of Will Smith, beloved member of the Saints’ 2009 Super Bowl team, has left teammates overcome with grief and a city frustrated by its rising violence. Plus draft buzz from 10 decision-makers, the truth behind a player’s surprising retirement at 32 and more around the NFL
By Peter King
Chris Graythen/Getty Images
The Will Smith news is just so horrible. Dead, at 34, the victim of an apparent road rage incident in New Orleans late Saturday night. Shot in the back and right torso, according to New Orleans police. As Sunday wore, I kept thinking about a father of three, a leader in the locker room, a backbone player on the team that helped revive New Orleans, gone because of a minor car accident and a few words exchanged and some apparent stranger with a gun.
The words, via Twitter, of former teammate Jermon Bushrod say more than I can: “No one should have to go out like that. Senseless dumbass violence has to stop. You work hard and help the community and go out like this?”
Senseless.
Dumbass.
Violence.
“We’ll all gather back in New Orleans 10 years after winning the Super Bowl, 20 years, 50 years, to celebrate what a great thing it was for our team and for our city,” Drew Brees said Sunday night. “And we’ll be together, but something will be missing.
“No Will.”
* * *
Photo: Joe Rimkus Jr/Miami Herald/MCT via Getty Images
Will Smith was a captain on the Saints team that defeated the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV.
Shot in the back.
That is the part that just is so maddening in a story that is beyond infuriating. Was Smith walking away? Did he shout a few epithets to the man who drove his car into Smith’s SUV, then turn back to his own car, only to get shot on his way back to his car? We don’t know yet. We just know that, for the 16th time in nine days, a shooting happened in this struggling great American city, and a man lay dead with multiple gunshot wounds.
“The problem,” said Brees, Smith’s teammate for seven seasons, “is New Orleans perennially is way up in these homicides statistically. We become desensitized to it. And so many people die, but we pay attention when it’s Will Smith; that forces so many people who wouldn’t normally deal with it to deal with the reality of a terrible thing, the gun violence in the city.
“People are going to make arguments now about gun control. And it just seems to me … This is about the way … the way human beings treat other human beings …”
His voice trailed off for a moment.
“Think about it. A guy [accused shooter Cardell Hayes] thought, whatever, that he was cut off. Just a simple thing, driving a car. And he reacts to someone he thinks did that. And lives are ruined. One guy is going to spend the rest of his life in jail. One guy is dead. One family loses its leader, its father, its husband, forever.”
Over the phone, Brees was getting emotional. Saints coach Asshole Face would always point to three people as the leaders of this team that helped revive a flooded and ruined city: Drew Brees, Will Smith, Jonathan Vilma. Brees chose the Saints coming off the Katrina-ravaged 2005 season because he was wounded himself, signing with the Saints while recovering from a bad shoulder injury the previous year in San Diego. Vilma arrived in 2008 in free agency and was the nerve center of a burgeoning defense. But Smith was there before Payton arrived, and not many of the pre-2006 Saints bought into the new coach in 2006. Smith did.
“Tough, so tough,” Brees said. “ A Saint through and through. Sean cleaned house, and Will stayed. I always thought there was nothing more I’d ever want from a teammate than what Will brought every day. He really was the cornerstone of our team. Will could always reference what it was like before we got there. His wisdom was so welcome. Not a rah-rah guy, but a guy you’d rely on every day. I would engage him, and he’d smile, and he would always be like, ‘We’re in this together.’”
Brees wonders what would have happened if Cardell Hayes, a New Orleans high school football star a lifetime ago, realized he was confronting a star of the Saints. “I wonder,” Brees said. “A lot’s been written about the bond between the team and the city, and what a special time it’s been over the past decade. If the guy knew this was a star of the Saints, who knows? Does he change his mind? Does he walk away? Does he put his gun down? Not to trivialize this—at all. But does he say, Hey, I grew up here. I love this city. Does he walk away? Maybe.
“But now, something’s been broken here.”
What’s been broken is the bond between Smith and his family, between Smith and his adopted city. Smith was born in Queens, raised in Utica, N.Y., and played collegiately at Ohio State. “That’s the worst thing,” Brees said. “I’ve seen him since he stopped playing [in 2013]. He brought his son into the locker room last season, and we hugged, and we talked, and I was like, ‘Will’s back!’ And I really felt there was more coming in the next phase of his life, with all the work he was doing in the community.”
That ended at 11:30 Saturday night in New Orleans, with gunshots to the back, according to New Orleans police.
* * *
Photo: Matthew Sharpe/Getty Images
Smith ranks fourth on the Saints' all-time sack list with 67.5 in his career.
Greg Bensel, 52, is the Saints’ PR man. He’s lived in New Orleans his entire life, went to Tulane and is owner Tom Benson’s trusted adviser. Some people love where they live. Bensel loves this city so much that if Benson fired him tomorrow, I’m convinced he’d take a job pumping gas if that’s what it would take for him to stay in New Orleans. And Sunday night, Bensel was ticked off.
“This is a tangible moment for this city, a moment when we realize something’s got to be done to change things,” Bensel said. “Twenty murders in 26 days! These aren’t statistics! These are human beings! I can tell you, this city’s on edge. This city’s had enough. People are sick to their stomachs.”
I hope he’s right. But it’s going to be tough. Forget the Second Amendment argument for a moment. New Orleans is a city still struggling post-Katrina, and to think the cops there can take guns out of the hands of citizens is a dream. “The problem is this violence is so entrenched,” said local crime analyst Jeff Asher. “Even if the public demands action, really, what can be done?”
A civilized society would figure out something. In Will Smith’s memory, New Orleans has to try.
* * *
Chasing the draft truth
With the first round of the draft two-and-a-half weeks away, and most teams still in their draft-grading bunkers, there’s not a lot of horse trading going on right now. So this is no time for the truth. This is the time, as Gil Brandt said Saturday, “for chasing ghosts.”
Brandt would know. This is the 56th draft for Brandt, either as a picker (for Dallas) or a league figure who’s the unofficial godfather of the draft process—going to workouts, being the point of contact between draftees and the league and talking to teams, agents and players. There’s not anyone who knows more about the picks and those making them than Brandt.
An example of ghost-chasing, from Brandt: “So Philadelphia’s working out all the quarterbacks, and visiting with all the quarterbacks. Is it true they want a quarterback? Could they pick a quarterback in the first round? Or is it a smokescreen and they’ve got it in their minds to pick someone else? Could they pick the running back [Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott] there?”
Over the weekend, I spoke with 10 team officials with power over their teams’ draft board and draft process. Three of them are in the middle of organizing their draft; they finished one side of the ball Friday and will finalize their boards on the other side of the ball beginning today. So it’s a myth that the hay’s in the barn for every team right now. One GM I talked to Saturday was going to spend Sunday in his bunker, studying tape of the top 10 quarterbacks.
This is why we’re in ghost-chasing time. We all think we know what Philadelphia’s going to do with the eighth pick in the first round, and maybe even Eagles GM Howie Roseman has a good idea of what he’s going to do with the pick, but with 17 days before he has to exercise it, why wouldn’t he still be looking at players, discussing internally what to do and waiting on the medical re-check of some draftees Thursday and Friday in Indianapolis?
So I thought what I’d do this morning is give you what I picked up over the weekend from the 10 Men in the Draft Bunkers.
Three questions first:
Who do you think will be the first player picked in the draft?
Eight of the 10 evaluators said Mississippi tackle Laremy Tunsil. One split his vote between Tunsil and Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey. The other said Tennessee will trade, and a team will move up to pick North Dakota State quarterback Carson Wentz.
Who will be the first quarterback picked?
Seven votes for Wentz. Three votes for Cal quarterback Jared Goff.
What team is most likely to trade into the top five of the first round?
Rams: four votes. Eagles: three votes. Bucs: one vote. Niners: one vote. One vote went to no team. “Price is too high,” this person said. “I don’t see anyone trading into the top five.”
* * *
Speculation and rumors, 17 days from D-Day
• Myles Jack is in play in the top 10, but his medical recheck is big. A knee injury shelved the UCLA linebacker for most of his 2015 season, but two teams in the top 10 (and maybe more) are anxiously awaiting the result from his Indianapolis re-check. He’s the kind of sideline-to-sideline playmaker who would interest Jacksonville at No. 5 if he checks out well.
• Regarding the Titans at 1. New GM Jon Robinson hosts Jalen Ramsey today in Nashville for a visit, and there’s definite interest there, with defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau thought to like the versatility of Ramsey for Tennessee’s barren secondary. One personnel man said over the weekend that the Titans have a definite solid offer for the pick and, if it’s sweetened, could be persuaded to go down a few spots. Which team? Philly’s the common thought, because Roseman trades, and going from eight to one is onerous but possible in terms of price tag. “But no team’s going to do three ones, the way Washington did for RG3,” said one evaluator. “No player in this draft is worth that.”
• Regarding the Browns at 2. Last week I heard Wentz strongly at this pick. This weekend one of my panelists said: “It’s definitely Goff. Believe it.” Next week, could it be Brian Sipe? But I will say this about the pick: Goff’s the name I hear coming out of that building right now. We’ll see.
• The strength of the draft. Middle-class draft. Read these quotes from four of my evaluators:
“Twenty-five to 55 is the same player, to me.”
“Eleven to 40 is the same guy.”
“To us, 18 to 48 you can get the same player.”
“Load me up with twos and threes in this draft. That’s where I’d want a lot of picks.”
And get this, from Gil Brandt: “It’s the kind of draft where the 50th player on some team’s board will be the 17th player on another team, and the 17th player on the first team could be the 50th on that other team.”
• Robert Nkemdiche’s the true wild card in this draft. One guy put it best about the Ole Miss defensive tackle with top-five talent and top-five off-field issues: “There’s not that much special talent in this draft. He’s special, potentially. Coaches with security will take a chance on a guy like this with such good tools.” I heard like things from a couple of others—namely, that Nkemdiche is a very likely first-round pick, though it may be late. Maybe a Pete Carroll (Seattle picks 26th) or Bruce Arians (Arizona picks 29th) will feel confident enough, with the kind of strong locker room each has, to put Nkemdiche in the mix. He’s articulate, he’s an artist, he plays the saxophone. He’s a tough riddle.
• The Eagles and a quarterback? Don’t dismiss it. Look at my first Factoid of the Week lower in the column, about the guaranteed money in the contracts of Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel, and you’ll see why it’s not ridiculous for Philadelphia to be thinking quarterback high in this draft.
• On the quarterbacks. Even this far out, the lines are drawn here: Goff and Wentz in the top five, Paxton Lynch in the teens, Connor Cook around 30 and then it’s anyone’s guess. One evaluator: “I would love to take a shot at developing Christian Hackenberg.” Another: “Hackenberg’s fractured.”
• Other draft niblets, in three-dot fashion: Talked to two men who like Notre Dame tackle Ronnie Stanley over Tunsil … “Best defensive tackle draft I’ve seen, easy,” said one veteran evaluator … I love the individuality of teams’ grades. I asked a few guys which first-round pick will shock the world on April 28. And one evaluator said he wasn’t positive this player would go in the first round, but said he definitely has first-round talent: Alabama back Kenyan Drake, who backed up Heisman winner Derrick Henry. Great straight-line speed … “The defensive tackle crop’s so good it’ll push some deserving players into the second round. The depth is so good that you’ll get some guys you can use right away in the third and fourth.” …
I love this, too, reading various front offices from afar. One guy: “San Francisco will not trade up from seven. Trent Baalke loves his picks too much and has too many needs to give them away.” Another guy: “They want to trade Anthony Davis and Antoine Bethea.” … Interesting analysis out of one evaluator, who sees 90 early defensive starters in this draft, and 40 offensive starters.
“Ninety’s a huge number,” he said … Much love for Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith, who has nerve damage in his knee from an injury in the Fiesta Bowl. No idea where he’ll be picked … Much love for Ezekiel Elliott too. But a running back, at four (Dallas)? Or anywhere that high? My evaluators think that’s too high, but beauty’s in the eye of the Joneses. We’ll see.
* * *
“When it comes to what the Hall of Fame is all about in terms of the criteria to get in, it should purely be based on stats.”
—Terrell Owens, to SiriusXM radio.
I wonder if Owens knows football was actually played before 1990, and eras in football history lead to different numbers in different times.
I’m guessing he doesn’t know that.
* * *
Jason Garrett has coached the Cowboys for five full seasons, 2011-15. (He took over midway through the 2010 season when Wade Phillips was fired.)
In Garrett’s first three full seasons, Dallas was a combined 24-24.
In his last two seasons, Dallas was a combined 16-16.
In playoff games coached by Garrett, Dallas is 1-1.
In his five full seasons, Garrett, in all games, is 41-41.
That’s what you call Even Steven.
* * *
Photo: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images/
Despite a revamped contract this offseason, Sam Bradford has a tenuous hold on the Eagles' starting quarterback job.
Factoids of the Week That May Interest Only Me
Why might Philadelphia not be bluffing about picking a quarterback in the first round? Check out the guaranteed money for Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel, the two quarterbacks under contract for significant dollars.
We would all agree that there’s only a minuscule chance Bradford or Daniel will be cut this year before opening day. So the guaranteed-money figure in 2016 is fairly meaningless, seeing that they’ll earn it all anyway.
• Bradford is guaranteed $22 million total in a two-year deal; $18 million is guaranteed in year one.
• Daniel is guaranteed $12 million total in a three-year deal; $7 million is guaranteed in year one.
So let’s say Philadelphia drafts a quarterback this year and it’s a learning season for whoever that is. And let’s say that quarterback goes to training camp in 2017 fighting to win the starting job against either Bradford or Daniel, with one of them being cut. The Eagles will have lost $5 million in guarantees in 2017 if they cut Daniel before the 2017 season, and $4 million if they cut Bradford. My point: It’s not a killer loss of dough if they have to part ways with either one of the veterans before 2017. And so I wouldn’t put it past the Eagles, if they love one of these quarterbacks, to pick him in the first round.
* * *
Ten Things I Think I Think
1. I think the league notched another win over the NFLPA on Sunday, when an arbitrator ruled against the union in a grievance it filed against the league in late 2014 regarding the personal conduct policy. The NFLPA had argued that the league was violating the collective bargaining agreement by putting players on paid leave via the commissioner’s exempt list while awaiting discipline under the personal conduct policy.
This was the course of action the NFL took on Adrian Peterson and Greg Hardy, placing both players on paid leave while the league investigated their incidents. With his decision, the arbitrator, Jonathan Marks, ultimately underlined commissioner Roger Goodell’s power to act on disciplinary matters, something the union has been fighting, and will continue to fight. For a league that’s been battered in court recently, this was a welcome decision for the commissioner and the owners.
2. I think I’m bullish on the 2016 Pro Football FocusDraft Guide. It’s well worth your time. I learned this from among the 264 pages of the first draft effort by PFF:
a. The lowest-rated of the top 22 quarterbacks in accuracy percentage: Michigan State’s Connor Cook (21) and Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg (22). Cook’s “inconsistency on the short stuff is maddening,” PFF says.
b. Of the same 22 quarterbacks, Hackenberg ranked worst in completion percentage under pressure (47.2 percent).
c. Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott was the highest-rated blocker of any back in this draft, and he gained 1,050 yards after contact.
d. Laquon Treadwell had nine drops in 91 catchable balls, but two other potential first-round receivers were worse: Corey Coleman of Baylor (10 drops in 84 catchable balls) and Will Full of Notre Dame (10 in 72). For Fuller, one drop per seven catchable throws—that’s just awful.
e. A candidate for the first overall pick, tackle Laremy Tunsil, allowed zero sacks and just five pressures on the 224 Ole Miss pass-drops that he played left tackle for in 2015.
f. PFF hasn’t fallen in love with Robert Nkemdiche, even throwing out his off-field problems. The site kills Nkemdiche for his lax run defense.
3. I think I have no clue if Ezekiel Elliott is going be picked fourth or 24th.
4. I think you have to understand where the game is going right now to have a feeling about the future of Elliott and the other running backs in this draft. Too many teams believe they can get a back in a late round or as an undrafted free agent.
5. I think the Chargers should take the best available offensive tackle—Laremy Tunsil or Ronnie Stanley, whomever is left when the third pick of the first round comes up.
6. I think it was interesting to read—from Mike Reiss of ESPN Boston—that the Patriots have had four different coaches on the Naval Academy campus to either work out, watch a workout or talk to multiposition player Keenan Reynolds. On Thursday, Reiss reports, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels worked out Reynolds, and coach Bill Belichick was on hand to watch in Annapolis. If the Pats want Reynolds, they could have an interesting dilemma.
Currently, they pick at 96—probably too early for an experimental player like the Navy quarterback—and then not again until pick number 196, deep into the sixth round. No idea if some team will pounce on Reynolds before pick 196, and clearly New England can trade up if it feels the need. But that’s an interesting name to watch for the Patriots—and an interesting player, obviously, after a dynamic college career.
7. I think the most interesting note about the NFL preseason schedule—and that is a stretch, calling anything preseason-related “interesting”—is that the Giants’ entire exhibition slate consists of games against the AFC East.
8. I think the note of the week has to be the gossip about Von Miller having “a flatulence problem” on Dancing With the Stars. The New York Daily News says Miller “just lets it rip, much to the disgust of his dance partner, Whitney Carson. The solution? He pays her $100 a fart, which she’s donating to the Skin Cancer Foundation.” What a country!
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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/04/10/will-smith-murder-new-orleans-saints-nfl
New Orleans Mourns: ‘No Will’
The murder of Will Smith, beloved member of the Saints’ 2009 Super Bowl team, has left teammates overcome with grief and a city frustrated by its rising violence. Plus draft buzz from 10 decision-makers, the truth behind a player’s surprising retirement at 32 and more around the NFL
By Peter King
Chris Graythen/Getty Images
The Will Smith news is just so horrible. Dead, at 34, the victim of an apparent road rage incident in New Orleans late Saturday night. Shot in the back and right torso, according to New Orleans police. As Sunday wore, I kept thinking about a father of three, a leader in the locker room, a backbone player on the team that helped revive New Orleans, gone because of a minor car accident and a few words exchanged and some apparent stranger with a gun.
The words, via Twitter, of former teammate Jermon Bushrod say more than I can: “No one should have to go out like that. Senseless dumbass violence has to stop. You work hard and help the community and go out like this?”
Senseless.
Dumbass.
Violence.
“We’ll all gather back in New Orleans 10 years after winning the Super Bowl, 20 years, 50 years, to celebrate what a great thing it was for our team and for our city,” Drew Brees said Sunday night. “And we’ll be together, but something will be missing.
“No Will.”
* * *
Photo: Joe Rimkus Jr/Miami Herald/MCT via Getty Images
Will Smith was a captain on the Saints team that defeated the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV.
Shot in the back.
That is the part that just is so maddening in a story that is beyond infuriating. Was Smith walking away? Did he shout a few epithets to the man who drove his car into Smith’s SUV, then turn back to his own car, only to get shot on his way back to his car? We don’t know yet. We just know that, for the 16th time in nine days, a shooting happened in this struggling great American city, and a man lay dead with multiple gunshot wounds.
“The problem,” said Brees, Smith’s teammate for seven seasons, “is New Orleans perennially is way up in these homicides statistically. We become desensitized to it. And so many people die, but we pay attention when it’s Will Smith; that forces so many people who wouldn’t normally deal with it to deal with the reality of a terrible thing, the gun violence in the city.
“People are going to make arguments now about gun control. And it just seems to me … This is about the way … the way human beings treat other human beings …”
His voice trailed off for a moment.
“Think about it. A guy [accused shooter Cardell Hayes] thought, whatever, that he was cut off. Just a simple thing, driving a car. And he reacts to someone he thinks did that. And lives are ruined. One guy is going to spend the rest of his life in jail. One guy is dead. One family loses its leader, its father, its husband, forever.”
Over the phone, Brees was getting emotional. Saints coach Asshole Face would always point to three people as the leaders of this team that helped revive a flooded and ruined city: Drew Brees, Will Smith, Jonathan Vilma. Brees chose the Saints coming off the Katrina-ravaged 2005 season because he was wounded himself, signing with the Saints while recovering from a bad shoulder injury the previous year in San Diego. Vilma arrived in 2008 in free agency and was the nerve center of a burgeoning defense. But Smith was there before Payton arrived, and not many of the pre-2006 Saints bought into the new coach in 2006. Smith did.
“Tough, so tough,” Brees said. “ A Saint through and through. Sean cleaned house, and Will stayed. I always thought there was nothing more I’d ever want from a teammate than what Will brought every day. He really was the cornerstone of our team. Will could always reference what it was like before we got there. His wisdom was so welcome. Not a rah-rah guy, but a guy you’d rely on every day. I would engage him, and he’d smile, and he would always be like, ‘We’re in this together.’”
Brees wonders what would have happened if Cardell Hayes, a New Orleans high school football star a lifetime ago, realized he was confronting a star of the Saints. “I wonder,” Brees said. “A lot’s been written about the bond between the team and the city, and what a special time it’s been over the past decade. If the guy knew this was a star of the Saints, who knows? Does he change his mind? Does he walk away? Does he put his gun down? Not to trivialize this—at all. But does he say, Hey, I grew up here. I love this city. Does he walk away? Maybe.
“But now, something’s been broken here.”
What’s been broken is the bond between Smith and his family, between Smith and his adopted city. Smith was born in Queens, raised in Utica, N.Y., and played collegiately at Ohio State. “That’s the worst thing,” Brees said. “I’ve seen him since he stopped playing [in 2013]. He brought his son into the locker room last season, and we hugged, and we talked, and I was like, ‘Will’s back!’ And I really felt there was more coming in the next phase of his life, with all the work he was doing in the community.”
That ended at 11:30 Saturday night in New Orleans, with gunshots to the back, according to New Orleans police.
* * *
Photo: Matthew Sharpe/Getty Images
Smith ranks fourth on the Saints' all-time sack list with 67.5 in his career.
Greg Bensel, 52, is the Saints’ PR man. He’s lived in New Orleans his entire life, went to Tulane and is owner Tom Benson’s trusted adviser. Some people love where they live. Bensel loves this city so much that if Benson fired him tomorrow, I’m convinced he’d take a job pumping gas if that’s what it would take for him to stay in New Orleans. And Sunday night, Bensel was ticked off.
“This is a tangible moment for this city, a moment when we realize something’s got to be done to change things,” Bensel said. “Twenty murders in 26 days! These aren’t statistics! These are human beings! I can tell you, this city’s on edge. This city’s had enough. People are sick to their stomachs.”
I hope he’s right. But it’s going to be tough. Forget the Second Amendment argument for a moment. New Orleans is a city still struggling post-Katrina, and to think the cops there can take guns out of the hands of citizens is a dream. “The problem is this violence is so entrenched,” said local crime analyst Jeff Asher. “Even if the public demands action, really, what can be done?”
A civilized society would figure out something. In Will Smith’s memory, New Orleans has to try.
* * *
Chasing the draft truth
With the first round of the draft two-and-a-half weeks away, and most teams still in their draft-grading bunkers, there’s not a lot of horse trading going on right now. So this is no time for the truth. This is the time, as Gil Brandt said Saturday, “for chasing ghosts.”
Brandt would know. This is the 56th draft for Brandt, either as a picker (for Dallas) or a league figure who’s the unofficial godfather of the draft process—going to workouts, being the point of contact between draftees and the league and talking to teams, agents and players. There’s not anyone who knows more about the picks and those making them than Brandt.
An example of ghost-chasing, from Brandt: “So Philadelphia’s working out all the quarterbacks, and visiting with all the quarterbacks. Is it true they want a quarterback? Could they pick a quarterback in the first round? Or is it a smokescreen and they’ve got it in their minds to pick someone else? Could they pick the running back [Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott] there?”
Over the weekend, I spoke with 10 team officials with power over their teams’ draft board and draft process. Three of them are in the middle of organizing their draft; they finished one side of the ball Friday and will finalize their boards on the other side of the ball beginning today. So it’s a myth that the hay’s in the barn for every team right now. One GM I talked to Saturday was going to spend Sunday in his bunker, studying tape of the top 10 quarterbacks.
This is why we’re in ghost-chasing time. We all think we know what Philadelphia’s going to do with the eighth pick in the first round, and maybe even Eagles GM Howie Roseman has a good idea of what he’s going to do with the pick, but with 17 days before he has to exercise it, why wouldn’t he still be looking at players, discussing internally what to do and waiting on the medical re-check of some draftees Thursday and Friday in Indianapolis?
So I thought what I’d do this morning is give you what I picked up over the weekend from the 10 Men in the Draft Bunkers.
Three questions first:
Who do you think will be the first player picked in the draft?
Eight of the 10 evaluators said Mississippi tackle Laremy Tunsil. One split his vote between Tunsil and Florida State defensive back Jalen Ramsey. The other said Tennessee will trade, and a team will move up to pick North Dakota State quarterback Carson Wentz.
Who will be the first quarterback picked?
Seven votes for Wentz. Three votes for Cal quarterback Jared Goff.
What team is most likely to trade into the top five of the first round?
Rams: four votes. Eagles: three votes. Bucs: one vote. Niners: one vote. One vote went to no team. “Price is too high,” this person said. “I don’t see anyone trading into the top five.”
* * *
Speculation and rumors, 17 days from D-Day
• Myles Jack is in play in the top 10, but his medical recheck is big. A knee injury shelved the UCLA linebacker for most of his 2015 season, but two teams in the top 10 (and maybe more) are anxiously awaiting the result from his Indianapolis re-check. He’s the kind of sideline-to-sideline playmaker who would interest Jacksonville at No. 5 if he checks out well.
• Regarding the Titans at 1. New GM Jon Robinson hosts Jalen Ramsey today in Nashville for a visit, and there’s definite interest there, with defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau thought to like the versatility of Ramsey for Tennessee’s barren secondary. One personnel man said over the weekend that the Titans have a definite solid offer for the pick and, if it’s sweetened, could be persuaded to go down a few spots. Which team? Philly’s the common thought, because Roseman trades, and going from eight to one is onerous but possible in terms of price tag. “But no team’s going to do three ones, the way Washington did for RG3,” said one evaluator. “No player in this draft is worth that.”
• Regarding the Browns at 2. Last week I heard Wentz strongly at this pick. This weekend one of my panelists said: “It’s definitely Goff. Believe it.” Next week, could it be Brian Sipe? But I will say this about the pick: Goff’s the name I hear coming out of that building right now. We’ll see.
• The strength of the draft. Middle-class draft. Read these quotes from four of my evaluators:
“Twenty-five to 55 is the same player, to me.”
“Eleven to 40 is the same guy.”
“To us, 18 to 48 you can get the same player.”
“Load me up with twos and threes in this draft. That’s where I’d want a lot of picks.”
And get this, from Gil Brandt: “It’s the kind of draft where the 50th player on some team’s board will be the 17th player on another team, and the 17th player on the first team could be the 50th on that other team.”
• Robert Nkemdiche’s the true wild card in this draft. One guy put it best about the Ole Miss defensive tackle with top-five talent and top-five off-field issues: “There’s not that much special talent in this draft. He’s special, potentially. Coaches with security will take a chance on a guy like this with such good tools.” I heard like things from a couple of others—namely, that Nkemdiche is a very likely first-round pick, though it may be late. Maybe a Pete Carroll (Seattle picks 26th) or Bruce Arians (Arizona picks 29th) will feel confident enough, with the kind of strong locker room each has, to put Nkemdiche in the mix. He’s articulate, he’s an artist, he plays the saxophone. He’s a tough riddle.
• The Eagles and a quarterback? Don’t dismiss it. Look at my first Factoid of the Week lower in the column, about the guaranteed money in the contracts of Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel, and you’ll see why it’s not ridiculous for Philadelphia to be thinking quarterback high in this draft.
• On the quarterbacks. Even this far out, the lines are drawn here: Goff and Wentz in the top five, Paxton Lynch in the teens, Connor Cook around 30 and then it’s anyone’s guess. One evaluator: “I would love to take a shot at developing Christian Hackenberg.” Another: “Hackenberg’s fractured.”
• Other draft niblets, in three-dot fashion: Talked to two men who like Notre Dame tackle Ronnie Stanley over Tunsil … “Best defensive tackle draft I’ve seen, easy,” said one veteran evaluator … I love the individuality of teams’ grades. I asked a few guys which first-round pick will shock the world on April 28. And one evaluator said he wasn’t positive this player would go in the first round, but said he definitely has first-round talent: Alabama back Kenyan Drake, who backed up Heisman winner Derrick Henry. Great straight-line speed … “The defensive tackle crop’s so good it’ll push some deserving players into the second round. The depth is so good that you’ll get some guys you can use right away in the third and fourth.” …
I love this, too, reading various front offices from afar. One guy: “San Francisco will not trade up from seven. Trent Baalke loves his picks too much and has too many needs to give them away.” Another guy: “They want to trade Anthony Davis and Antoine Bethea.” … Interesting analysis out of one evaluator, who sees 90 early defensive starters in this draft, and 40 offensive starters.
“Ninety’s a huge number,” he said … Much love for Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith, who has nerve damage in his knee from an injury in the Fiesta Bowl. No idea where he’ll be picked … Much love for Ezekiel Elliott too. But a running back, at four (Dallas)? Or anywhere that high? My evaluators think that’s too high, but beauty’s in the eye of the Joneses. We’ll see.
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“When it comes to what the Hall of Fame is all about in terms of the criteria to get in, it should purely be based on stats.”
—Terrell Owens, to SiriusXM radio.
I wonder if Owens knows football was actually played before 1990, and eras in football history lead to different numbers in different times.
I’m guessing he doesn’t know that.
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Jason Garrett has coached the Cowboys for five full seasons, 2011-15. (He took over midway through the 2010 season when Wade Phillips was fired.)
In Garrett’s first three full seasons, Dallas was a combined 24-24.
In his last two seasons, Dallas was a combined 16-16.
In playoff games coached by Garrett, Dallas is 1-1.
In his five full seasons, Garrett, in all games, is 41-41.
That’s what you call Even Steven.
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Photo: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images/
Despite a revamped contract this offseason, Sam Bradford has a tenuous hold on the Eagles' starting quarterback job.
Factoids of the Week That May Interest Only Me
Why might Philadelphia not be bluffing about picking a quarterback in the first round? Check out the guaranteed money for Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel, the two quarterbacks under contract for significant dollars.
We would all agree that there’s only a minuscule chance Bradford or Daniel will be cut this year before opening day. So the guaranteed-money figure in 2016 is fairly meaningless, seeing that they’ll earn it all anyway.
• Bradford is guaranteed $22 million total in a two-year deal; $18 million is guaranteed in year one.
• Daniel is guaranteed $12 million total in a three-year deal; $7 million is guaranteed in year one.
So let’s say Philadelphia drafts a quarterback this year and it’s a learning season for whoever that is. And let’s say that quarterback goes to training camp in 2017 fighting to win the starting job against either Bradford or Daniel, with one of them being cut. The Eagles will have lost $5 million in guarantees in 2017 if they cut Daniel before the 2017 season, and $4 million if they cut Bradford. My point: It’s not a killer loss of dough if they have to part ways with either one of the veterans before 2017. And so I wouldn’t put it past the Eagles, if they love one of these quarterbacks, to pick him in the first round.
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Ten Things I Think I Think
1. I think the league notched another win over the NFLPA on Sunday, when an arbitrator ruled against the union in a grievance it filed against the league in late 2014 regarding the personal conduct policy. The NFLPA had argued that the league was violating the collective bargaining agreement by putting players on paid leave via the commissioner’s exempt list while awaiting discipline under the personal conduct policy.
This was the course of action the NFL took on Adrian Peterson and Greg Hardy, placing both players on paid leave while the league investigated their incidents. With his decision, the arbitrator, Jonathan Marks, ultimately underlined commissioner Roger Goodell’s power to act on disciplinary matters, something the union has been fighting, and will continue to fight. For a league that’s been battered in court recently, this was a welcome decision for the commissioner and the owners.
2. I think I’m bullish on the 2016 Pro Football FocusDraft Guide. It’s well worth your time. I learned this from among the 264 pages of the first draft effort by PFF:
a. The lowest-rated of the top 22 quarterbacks in accuracy percentage: Michigan State’s Connor Cook (21) and Penn State’s Christian Hackenberg (22). Cook’s “inconsistency on the short stuff is maddening,” PFF says.
b. Of the same 22 quarterbacks, Hackenberg ranked worst in completion percentage under pressure (47.2 percent).
c. Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott was the highest-rated blocker of any back in this draft, and he gained 1,050 yards after contact.
d. Laquon Treadwell had nine drops in 91 catchable balls, but two other potential first-round receivers were worse: Corey Coleman of Baylor (10 drops in 84 catchable balls) and Will Full of Notre Dame (10 in 72). For Fuller, one drop per seven catchable throws—that’s just awful.
e. A candidate for the first overall pick, tackle Laremy Tunsil, allowed zero sacks and just five pressures on the 224 Ole Miss pass-drops that he played left tackle for in 2015.
f. PFF hasn’t fallen in love with Robert Nkemdiche, even throwing out his off-field problems. The site kills Nkemdiche for his lax run defense.
3. I think I have no clue if Ezekiel Elliott is going be picked fourth or 24th.
4. I think you have to understand where the game is going right now to have a feeling about the future of Elliott and the other running backs in this draft. Too many teams believe they can get a back in a late round or as an undrafted free agent.
5. I think the Chargers should take the best available offensive tackle—Laremy Tunsil or Ronnie Stanley, whomever is left when the third pick of the first round comes up.
6. I think it was interesting to read—from Mike Reiss of ESPN Boston—that the Patriots have had four different coaches on the Naval Academy campus to either work out, watch a workout or talk to multiposition player Keenan Reynolds. On Thursday, Reiss reports, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels worked out Reynolds, and coach Bill Belichick was on hand to watch in Annapolis. If the Pats want Reynolds, they could have an interesting dilemma.
Currently, they pick at 96—probably too early for an experimental player like the Navy quarterback—and then not again until pick number 196, deep into the sixth round. No idea if some team will pounce on Reynolds before pick 196, and clearly New England can trade up if it feels the need. But that’s an interesting name to watch for the Patriots—and an interesting player, obviously, after a dynamic college career.
7. I think the most interesting note about the NFL preseason schedule—and that is a stretch, calling anything preseason-related “interesting”—is that the Giants’ entire exhibition slate consists of games against the AFC East.
8. I think the note of the week has to be the gossip about Von Miller having “a flatulence problem” on Dancing With the Stars. The New York Daily News says Miller “just lets it rip, much to the disgust of his dance partner, Whitney Carson. The solution? He pays her $100 a fart, which she’s donating to the Skin Cancer Foundation.” What a country!
