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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/02/27/nfl-draft-mike-mayock-combine-top-prospects-peter-king
The Book on Draft Prospects, According to Mike Mayock
Heading into the combine, the NFL Network analyst spreads the good word on the best quarterback, the deepest position group and more
By Peter King
Never been a big combine fan. I’ve always felt it (in part) bastardizes the draft class by getting fans and some scouts and coaches all heated up when some average college player runs fast and jumps high in Indianapolis, and pushes that so-so player up the draft board. Gratuitously.
Stephen Hill. 2012. Georgia Tech receiver. Caught 49 passes in his college career. Big guy: 6'4", 215. Ran a 4.30 and 4.31 in the 40-yard dash at Indy. Much frothing over Hill around Lucas Oil Stadium. Jets traded second-, fifth- and seventh-round picks to move up to take Hill in the second round. Hill caught 45 NFL passes, total. Out of football now.
But it is the start of the draft season, and I do have an inordinate amount of respect for Mike Mayock, who cares so much about his craft and is not afraid to admit when he errs—as he did publicly and with much hand-wringing about thinking Johnny Manziel had turned his life around three years ago.
Mike Mayock is the lead analyst of the NFL Network’s draft coverage
Photo: Icon Sportswire/Getty Images
So when he says this from his Pennsylvania bunker, taking a break on Friday from watching five game tapes of every prospect of import, I listen:
“This is as good and as deep a class as I’ve seen in a draft in several years—with the exception of quarterback and offensive line. Running backs and tight ends, top end and depth are outstanding. Tight ends—I haven’t seen a group like this in years. Wide receivers, very good.
Defensively, it’s unbelievable. The edge rushers … we haven’t seen a group like this in a long, long time. You’ll be able to get a starting edge rusher in the fourth round that last year or most drafts you’d compare to an edge rusher in the second round. Cornerbacks and safeties, it’s the best I’ve seen in 10 years at least.”
Hmmm. With some Stephen Hill-ian perspective, let’s go over the Ten Things Mayock Thinks About the 2017 NFL scouting combine.
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• Mayock thinks he has no idea which quarterback is best. “Not a great class, but it doesn’t mean there isn’t talent there,” he said. “The talent at the top end is not ready to contribute anytime soon. Two or three years down road, though, is your owner patient? Your fan base patient?” Mayock says put DeShone Kizer of Notre Dame, Mitch Trubisky of North Carolina, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes in any order.
“I do top-five lists, and this was the toughest I ever remember at any position. An intriguing class, for different reasons. All have holes in their games, all a little inexperienced.” This was the best thing Mayock said: “I try to focus so that I am not mired in old-school philosophy. But one thing that really bothers me is a one-year starter at the quarterback position.
I like Trubisky, but 13 college starts bothers me for a top 10-pick. Look at his bowl game against Stanford. Some great throws in the last two minutes. But also a throw on a wheel route that a DB returned for a pick-six. What’s he thinking?” Kizer, he says, is the most compelling. “I think he has the most upside, the highest ceiling. But he is 12-11 as a starter at Notre Dame.
He played a lot of bad football with the game on the line in the fourth quarter this year. That is not acceptable. But he is 6'5", 235. He has that kind of prototypical franchise quarterback look, a Philip Rivers type … if he gets everything right.”
• Mayock thinks he is fascinated by Deshaun Watson. “The positives I love: 28-2 as a starter in the last two seasons, played his best when the lights were brightest, embraces the moment—and you cannot discount that. As you watch him play, what it really comes down to: He’s gonna have the same conversation in draft rooms as Jared Goff, Marcus Mariota, RG3, Johnny Manziel, all of these spread quarterbacks: Can he win from the pocket?
I’ve done five games of his. When his post-snap look matches up with pre-snap, when he gets what he thinks he’s gonna get, he can make every throw with accuracy on all three levels, no question. When his post-snap look is different from pre-snap, he struggles.”
• Mayock thinks the backs are dreamy. “There are five backs this year that you can give a first-round grade,” he said, “and the average number of backs to go in the first round in the last five years is 1.2.” He has Florida State’s Dalvin Cook one and all-world Leonard Fournette of LSU two, because he thinks Cook’s a better all-around back and has been healthier.
To get the value out of Fournette, he says, you must treat him like Ezekiel Elliott and plan for 25 touches a game. He also likes Alvin Kamara of Tennessee and thinks without the off-field problems Joe Mixon would be a first-round pick. With the problems? Maybe in the Tyreek Hill, fifth-round range.
• Mayock thinks Christian McCaffrey is a great match for the team picking 32nd. I said to Mayock, “Wouldn’t New England—where every game plan is a snowflake, so different and so diverse—be a perfect landing spot for McCaffrey?” The Patriots select last in the first round, and Mayock said: “I would be surprised if he lasted that long, but I am in 100 percent agreement with you.
The NFL’s become a matchup league, and Christian McCaffrey is a matchup player. You can line him up anywhere: the I, slot, all the way out wide, sidecar to QB, he becomes a chess piece for a smart offensive mind. He will run 4.5 or better, and I’ve never seen him get caught from behind. He’s going to be a very good NFL player.”
• Mayock thinks the lesser wideouts will be very good pros. He’s like everyone: Mike Williams (Clemson), Corey Davis (Western Michigan) and John Ross (Washington) are the cream. But at the Senior Bowl, Mayock fell in love with two great-hands guys: Cooper Kupp of Eastern Washington and Zay Jones of East Carolina. “Every year, when Eastern Washington played a PAC-12 school, Cupp dominated, so that eliminated any question to me about level of competition,” Mayock said. “Zay Jones … what hands. No fear.”
• Mayock thinks the edge guys could set a record this year. It’s not surprising to say seven or eight defensive linemen could go in the first round. But seven or eight pass-rushers in the first round? That’s a great class. Mayock said he would be surprised if the Browns do not stick at number one and take Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett, who at 252 pounds is six pounds heavier than Von Miller was at the combine six years ago, and was just as impactful around the corner as Miller was in college.
The first pick, Mayock thinks, will be one of two players: Garrett or Alabama defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. That leads us to a non-first-rounder, but one of Mayock’s favorites …
• Mayock is a Philly guy, so forgive him for this, but he thinks the hidden gem in the edge class and maybe the draft is a guy from his ’hood (Villanova). The son of a chemist from Uganda and economist from Ivory Coast, rusher Tanoh Kpassagnon (repeat after me: TAWN-o pass-N-yoh) had 21 tackles for loss at the I-AA level last year. “He has no idea what he’s doing,” said Mayock, “but he was really good at the Senior Bowl, and it’ll be interesting to see what he runs. Lots of teams love him.” Look for him to go in the late-second-round range.
• Mayock thinks J.J. Watt’s brother could sneak into the first round. “He could,” Mayock said. Wisconsin linebacker T.J. Watt declared early for the draft after one very good pass-rush season (15.5 tackles for loss, including 11.5 sacks). Like his brother, T.J. is a Tazmanian Devil in terms of motor, but Mayock compares him to another frenetic player.
“The easy comparison is [Green Bay’s] Clay Matthews. He’s an edge rusher who fits best into a 3-4 system. He has a similar game to Clay—an edge who can drop in coverage and has a motor that just won’t stop.”
• Mayock thinks the defensive backfield will be fascinating in Indy. Think of these two Swiss army-knife players: Jabrill Peppers of Michigan and UConn’s Obi Melifonwu. Peppers was king of the versatile guys going into the Senior Bowl—he is probably the third safety in the crop, and could play nickel or even a light linebacker. But Melifonwu could run in the low 4.4s, and if he does, the buzz will start about trying him at corner.
That’s crazy talk, a 6'4", 219-pound guy playing NFL corner, but imagine the matchup nightmare he’d be if he had the quickness to cover quick-twitch tall receivers. Of course, no one in the NFL does that, and even the 6'1" Jalen Collins got beaten on dig routes and double-moves in the Super Bowl by Tom Brady. So no one knows if the college safety could transition to cornerback. But as Mayock said.
“I know NFL guys who think, ‘I’d love to try him [at corner]. Let’s see if he fails.’ That’s where the NFL is going. A big, very athletic guy, and instead of thinking him automatically as a safety who may be able to play linebacker, now we’re thinking of him as a safety who just might be able to play cornerback.”
• Mayock thinks the elephant in the room might be best off being out of the room. Two elephants, actually. Quarterback Chad Kelly and running back Joe Mixon, in particular, are two good prospects who won’t be in Indianapolis because they’ve had major disciplinary and/or criminal problems off the field. “Remember Michael Sam?”
Mayock said. “For him it was a circus at the combine. Here is what I think is going on, and it’s worth a conversation. I almost think it’s an advantage Mixon won’t be there. He won’t get poked and prodded from 5 in the morning to midnight for two days at the combine.
He won’t deal with all the questions from all the teams. We know Joe Mixon is gonna be in the NFL next year. Tyreek Hill went in the fifth round last year, after all his trouble in college, and the Chiefs got away with one, and he’s been clean off the field since the draft. Every team will vet him.”
Mixon punched a woman in the face in 2014 and was kicked off the Oklahoma team for the season. He did later return, but the video of the incident has haunted him and caused the NFL to ban him from the combine. Albert Breer of The MMQBspoke to Mixon, who said he was not upset about being excluded from the combine.
“It’s not in my hands, to make that decision,” Mixon told Breer. “At the end of the day, I respect the NFL not inviting me. And I’ve got another opportunity to show what I can do, at the pro day … They came up with a decision. And like I said, I respect it.”
Breer will write in-depth about Mixon later this week here at The MMQB. For now, be ready to get inundated by combine talk. Mayock and NFL Network will bring the event into living rooms Friday through Monday, beginning at 9 a.m.
We’ll have staffers of The MMQBon hand, writing later this week. We’ve got some good stories working, so check back often.
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Browns Are on the Clock, in More Ways Than One
Finding a long-term answer at quarterback continues to be a priority for the Browns and coach Hue Jackson
Photo: Nick Cammett/Diamond Images/Getty Images
Cleveland has such an embarrassment of riches in the draft that soon they’re going to run out of reasons why they can’t win. Last year the Browns had 14 overall picks, the most they’ve had in a season since they had 15 in 1979. [Ozzie Newsome had just finished his rookie year at the time of that draft.] This year Cleveland enters the draft season with eight picks in the top 150 … two more than any other team in the NFL in the top 150.
The picks: 1, 12, 33, 52, 65, 108, 142, 145.
In a way it’s almost cruel that such a crop of picks falls in an overall mediocre year for the quarterback position. If the Browns don’t trade for a promising quarterback like Jimmy Garoppolo, or try to steal a franchised quarterback like Kirk Cousins (well, he’s likely to be franchised by Washington) in free agency, then they’ll be in a tough spot in this draft.
There’s no logical quarterback to take first overall if going by grades; surely Myles Garrett or Jonathan Allen, likely the top two defensive players on the board, will have grades superior to any quarterback in the draft. But with all the teams high in the draft that will need a quarterback (San Francisco at 2, Chicago at 3 and possibly the Jets at 6 and Bills at 10), the Browns may be in a very tough spot.
They may have to over-draft the quarterback they love (if there is one) or risk losing him before they can pick again at 12. Or they may have to trade a significant amount of draft capital to pair with the 12th pick to move up.
I feel for Browns coach Hue Jackson and GM Sashi Brown. Despite letting go three quality offensive players in Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartz and Taylor Gabriel, they’ve done a lot of right things in the past year.
But the crying need for a quarterback in a year where there’s no sure thing will test every brain in the Cleveland organization, including top scout Andrew Berry and strategist Paul DePodesta. What’s the right thing to do when there’s no obvious right thing to do? For a team that’s 4-33 since Thanksgiving 2014, it’s another crucial—and likely tortured—decision to have to make.
What would I do? Though I continue to think the Patriots won’t trade Garoppolo, I’d offer the Patriots the 12th and 65th picks for him. (This is only if the Browns really like Garoppolo, which I hear they do.) No other team in the league will offer such a lucrative package, and even if Bill Belichick doesn’t want to trade him, it’s likely he’d be tempted by that deal.
I know that so many Browns fans are anti-Garoppolo because of his limited sample size, and I understand that, and I get that the 12th and 65th picks in a very good draft should be Day 1 contributors. But there’s also the matter here of hoarding draft picks, and becoming slaves to them.
Cleveland fans have gotten used to the draft being their Super Bowl. It’s time to sacrifice something significant to get a quarterback. If there’s a QB you love available in April, no package is too rich to get him.
It may come down to this: Do you have more faith in Garoppolo or in one of the rookies to be the best option for the future of the Browns? If you believe one of the kids in the draft is, then you shouldn’t feel bad about the Browns picking him first overall. The quarterback workouts are Saturday on NFL Network. (This week is Plug Central for NFL Network.) Lovers of the Browns should eat up the workouts.
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The Dominant Combine Story
In his SI.com media column, Richard Deitsch often surveys people in the field about a specific question or issue, and I’m thieving from him today. I asked a few draftniks entering scouting combine week: “What’s going to be the dominant story angle coming out of the combine this year?”
Their answers:
Todd McShay, ESPN
“The tight end and running back droughts end in 2017. We haven’t had a tight end selected in the first round of the past two drafts. This year’s group features two that belong in round one: O.J. Howard (Alabama) and David Njoku (Miami). Both are expected to test extremely well in Indianapolis. We’ve only had three first-round backs in the past four drafts.
This group could have up to four: Leonard Fournette of LSU, Dalvin Cook of Florida State, Alvin Kamara of Tennessee and Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey. Final note: One of the three most talented backs in this class was not invited to Indy, Joe Mixon. First-rounder on tape … but which team is willing to take a chance, and at what point of the draft, on a player who knocked out a young lady, and it’s on tape for everyone to see?”
Chris Burke, SI.com
“The wide receiver position is too important, and too many teams are lacking weapons there, for Corey Davis and Mike Williams to be the only two wideouts taken in round one. The combine will throw a few more names into the hat, especially with Davis sitting out drills because of an ankle injury. Washington’s John Ross can fly and might solidify himself as a first-rounder, but he’s not alone.
Prospects like Isaiah Ford (Virginia Tech), Curtis Samuel (Ohio State), K.D. Cannon (Baylor) and Dede Westbrook (Oklahoma) are well-built for the combine’s athletic testing. Will Fuller, now of the Texans, helped push his stock into the first round by breaking off a 4.32-second time in the 40-yard dash at last year’s event, and those named above—and several others—could pull a similar trick this time around. This is a deep receiver group that’s going to open some eyes in Indianapolis.”
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL.com
“This is the deepest group of cornerbacks and safeties I’ve seen in a very long time. I think we’ll all be gushing about this secondary class following this year’s combine. I currently have 10 cornerbacks in my top 50 list, and I could easily add another four to five names based on what I’ve studied thus far. I think we will be blown away after watching the on-field workouts.
All of them have an impressive combination of size/speed, and they are very fluid movers. The safety group has a nice mixture of over-the-top free safety prospects and rolled-up box safety types. The personnel community will be giddy after watching them run, jump and move around on the field.”
Matt Miller, Bleacher Report
“The biggest storyline coming out of the 2017 combine will be the athleticism of Leonard Fournette. He’s been a forgotten man for much of the season due to the ankle injury that sidelined him and then the fact that he wasn’t eligible to compete in the Senior Bowl. That will change next week. Fournette is a beast at 6'1" and 235 pounds, and I’ve been told in training he was running in the low 4.4s in the 40-yard-dash.
That’s unreal. His overall numbers will best those of Derrick Henry and be on par with Ezekiel Elliott. The running back may not be a premium draft pick anymore, but elite athletes like Fournette are always prioritized at the top of the draft order. Leaving Indianapolis, Fournette should be talked about as a top-five player.”
Dane Brugler, CBS Sports and NFLDraftScout.com
“Many tend to judge draft classes by the quarterback prospects and although this year’s crop doesn’t have a clear-cut number one overall candidate, it is not a weak class. North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky, Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes are the top four, and while each of their games has holes, each is also uniquely talented with NFL starting potential.
But what order will they come off the board? How many in the top 10? Will another quarterback work his way into the mix? With several NFL teams searching for an upgrade at the position, the quarterback dominoes will start to fall at the combine and give us a better idea of how the quarterback market will all shake out.”
Josh Norris, RotoWorld, NBCSports.com
“The 40-yard dash. ‘Who ran fast?’ What Bill Walsh called the universal measurable has been the athleticism identifier at the combine. That is wrong, and we need to progress our understanding and interpretation of NFL combine results. Shining in one area does not make a top athlete, and I would throw in Chicago running back Jeremy Langford as an example. He ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash at the combine in 2015, which led all running backs.
The rest of his workout was below average, but he was labeled as a top athlete due to the singular run. Each test and result should be factored in with a prospect’s weight in order to create a composite score. That composite score, from a consistent formula, can act as an athletic profile. Too many, including NFL teams, misunderstand how to identify athleticism and use it as a tool.”
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“I’ve never been to the combine. You can’t watch anything. It’s a waste.”
—ESPN’s Mel Kiper, to The MMQB’s Kalyn Kahler, in “Talking Football.”
That’s a little bit like Peter Gammons saying he’s never been to the World Series.
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A linebacker likely to go in the top half of the first round, Alabama’s Reuben Foster, has overcome quite a bit to get to the combine this week. When Foster was 18 months old, according to AL.com, his mother was holding him, and his father shot her multiple times in the back. One of the bullets hit Reuben. She didn’t tell him until he was 5, and the wound didn’t impact his football career.
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Things I Think I Think
I think it’s silly to not have Joe Mixon and Chad Kelly at the scouting combine. Isn’t the object of the post-season information-gathering season to gather as much information as you can about all good prospects in the draft—particularly the ones whose cases will be the toughest to figure out? How does it benefit information-gatherers if they can’t learn first-hand about the toughest cases?
I think this is the oddest configuration in the draft order announced by the NFL on Friday:
• Seattle has no picks between the first and 25th overall slots.
• Seattle has five picks between the 26th and 106th overall slots.
• Seattle has no picks between the 107th and 209th overall slots.
I think Myles Garrett is going to be the first overall pick on April 27. By someone.
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http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/02/27/nfl-draft-mike-mayock-combine-top-prospects-peter-king
The Book on Draft Prospects, According to Mike Mayock
Heading into the combine, the NFL Network analyst spreads the good word on the best quarterback, the deepest position group and more
By Peter King
Never been a big combine fan. I’ve always felt it (in part) bastardizes the draft class by getting fans and some scouts and coaches all heated up when some average college player runs fast and jumps high in Indianapolis, and pushes that so-so player up the draft board. Gratuitously.
Stephen Hill. 2012. Georgia Tech receiver. Caught 49 passes in his college career. Big guy: 6'4", 215. Ran a 4.30 and 4.31 in the 40-yard dash at Indy. Much frothing over Hill around Lucas Oil Stadium. Jets traded second-, fifth- and seventh-round picks to move up to take Hill in the second round. Hill caught 45 NFL passes, total. Out of football now.
But it is the start of the draft season, and I do have an inordinate amount of respect for Mike Mayock, who cares so much about his craft and is not afraid to admit when he errs—as he did publicly and with much hand-wringing about thinking Johnny Manziel had turned his life around three years ago.
Mike Mayock is the lead analyst of the NFL Network’s draft coverage
Photo: Icon Sportswire/Getty Images
So when he says this from his Pennsylvania bunker, taking a break on Friday from watching five game tapes of every prospect of import, I listen:
“This is as good and as deep a class as I’ve seen in a draft in several years—with the exception of quarterback and offensive line. Running backs and tight ends, top end and depth are outstanding. Tight ends—I haven’t seen a group like this in years. Wide receivers, very good.
Defensively, it’s unbelievable. The edge rushers … we haven’t seen a group like this in a long, long time. You’ll be able to get a starting edge rusher in the fourth round that last year or most drafts you’d compare to an edge rusher in the second round. Cornerbacks and safeties, it’s the best I’ve seen in 10 years at least.”
Hmmm. With some Stephen Hill-ian perspective, let’s go over the Ten Things Mayock Thinks About the 2017 NFL scouting combine.
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• Mayock thinks he has no idea which quarterback is best. “Not a great class, but it doesn’t mean there isn’t talent there,” he said. “The talent at the top end is not ready to contribute anytime soon. Two or three years down road, though, is your owner patient? Your fan base patient?” Mayock says put DeShone Kizer of Notre Dame, Mitch Trubisky of North Carolina, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes in any order.
“I do top-five lists, and this was the toughest I ever remember at any position. An intriguing class, for different reasons. All have holes in their games, all a little inexperienced.” This was the best thing Mayock said: “I try to focus so that I am not mired in old-school philosophy. But one thing that really bothers me is a one-year starter at the quarterback position.
I like Trubisky, but 13 college starts bothers me for a top 10-pick. Look at his bowl game against Stanford. Some great throws in the last two minutes. But also a throw on a wheel route that a DB returned for a pick-six. What’s he thinking?” Kizer, he says, is the most compelling. “I think he has the most upside, the highest ceiling. But he is 12-11 as a starter at Notre Dame.
He played a lot of bad football with the game on the line in the fourth quarter this year. That is not acceptable. But he is 6'5", 235. He has that kind of prototypical franchise quarterback look, a Philip Rivers type … if he gets everything right.”
• Mayock thinks he is fascinated by Deshaun Watson. “The positives I love: 28-2 as a starter in the last two seasons, played his best when the lights were brightest, embraces the moment—and you cannot discount that. As you watch him play, what it really comes down to: He’s gonna have the same conversation in draft rooms as Jared Goff, Marcus Mariota, RG3, Johnny Manziel, all of these spread quarterbacks: Can he win from the pocket?
I’ve done five games of his. When his post-snap look matches up with pre-snap, when he gets what he thinks he’s gonna get, he can make every throw with accuracy on all three levels, no question. When his post-snap look is different from pre-snap, he struggles.”
• Mayock thinks the backs are dreamy. “There are five backs this year that you can give a first-round grade,” he said, “and the average number of backs to go in the first round in the last five years is 1.2.” He has Florida State’s Dalvin Cook one and all-world Leonard Fournette of LSU two, because he thinks Cook’s a better all-around back and has been healthier.
To get the value out of Fournette, he says, you must treat him like Ezekiel Elliott and plan for 25 touches a game. He also likes Alvin Kamara of Tennessee and thinks without the off-field problems Joe Mixon would be a first-round pick. With the problems? Maybe in the Tyreek Hill, fifth-round range.
• Mayock thinks Christian McCaffrey is a great match for the team picking 32nd. I said to Mayock, “Wouldn’t New England—where every game plan is a snowflake, so different and so diverse—be a perfect landing spot for McCaffrey?” The Patriots select last in the first round, and Mayock said: “I would be surprised if he lasted that long, but I am in 100 percent agreement with you.
The NFL’s become a matchup league, and Christian McCaffrey is a matchup player. You can line him up anywhere: the I, slot, all the way out wide, sidecar to QB, he becomes a chess piece for a smart offensive mind. He will run 4.5 or better, and I’ve never seen him get caught from behind. He’s going to be a very good NFL player.”
• Mayock thinks the lesser wideouts will be very good pros. He’s like everyone: Mike Williams (Clemson), Corey Davis (Western Michigan) and John Ross (Washington) are the cream. But at the Senior Bowl, Mayock fell in love with two great-hands guys: Cooper Kupp of Eastern Washington and Zay Jones of East Carolina. “Every year, when Eastern Washington played a PAC-12 school, Cupp dominated, so that eliminated any question to me about level of competition,” Mayock said. “Zay Jones … what hands. No fear.”
• Mayock thinks the edge guys could set a record this year. It’s not surprising to say seven or eight defensive linemen could go in the first round. But seven or eight pass-rushers in the first round? That’s a great class. Mayock said he would be surprised if the Browns do not stick at number one and take Texas A&M’s Myles Garrett, who at 252 pounds is six pounds heavier than Von Miller was at the combine six years ago, and was just as impactful around the corner as Miller was in college.
The first pick, Mayock thinks, will be one of two players: Garrett or Alabama defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. That leads us to a non-first-rounder, but one of Mayock’s favorites …
• Mayock is a Philly guy, so forgive him for this, but he thinks the hidden gem in the edge class and maybe the draft is a guy from his ’hood (Villanova). The son of a chemist from Uganda and economist from Ivory Coast, rusher Tanoh Kpassagnon (repeat after me: TAWN-o pass-N-yoh) had 21 tackles for loss at the I-AA level last year. “He has no idea what he’s doing,” said Mayock, “but he was really good at the Senior Bowl, and it’ll be interesting to see what he runs. Lots of teams love him.” Look for him to go in the late-second-round range.
• Mayock thinks J.J. Watt’s brother could sneak into the first round. “He could,” Mayock said. Wisconsin linebacker T.J. Watt declared early for the draft after one very good pass-rush season (15.5 tackles for loss, including 11.5 sacks). Like his brother, T.J. is a Tazmanian Devil in terms of motor, but Mayock compares him to another frenetic player.
“The easy comparison is [Green Bay’s] Clay Matthews. He’s an edge rusher who fits best into a 3-4 system. He has a similar game to Clay—an edge who can drop in coverage and has a motor that just won’t stop.”
• Mayock thinks the defensive backfield will be fascinating in Indy. Think of these two Swiss army-knife players: Jabrill Peppers of Michigan and UConn’s Obi Melifonwu. Peppers was king of the versatile guys going into the Senior Bowl—he is probably the third safety in the crop, and could play nickel or even a light linebacker. But Melifonwu could run in the low 4.4s, and if he does, the buzz will start about trying him at corner.
That’s crazy talk, a 6'4", 219-pound guy playing NFL corner, but imagine the matchup nightmare he’d be if he had the quickness to cover quick-twitch tall receivers. Of course, no one in the NFL does that, and even the 6'1" Jalen Collins got beaten on dig routes and double-moves in the Super Bowl by Tom Brady. So no one knows if the college safety could transition to cornerback. But as Mayock said.
“I know NFL guys who think, ‘I’d love to try him [at corner]. Let’s see if he fails.’ That’s where the NFL is going. A big, very athletic guy, and instead of thinking him automatically as a safety who may be able to play linebacker, now we’re thinking of him as a safety who just might be able to play cornerback.”
• Mayock thinks the elephant in the room might be best off being out of the room. Two elephants, actually. Quarterback Chad Kelly and running back Joe Mixon, in particular, are two good prospects who won’t be in Indianapolis because they’ve had major disciplinary and/or criminal problems off the field. “Remember Michael Sam?”
Mayock said. “For him it was a circus at the combine. Here is what I think is going on, and it’s worth a conversation. I almost think it’s an advantage Mixon won’t be there. He won’t get poked and prodded from 5 in the morning to midnight for two days at the combine.
He won’t deal with all the questions from all the teams. We know Joe Mixon is gonna be in the NFL next year. Tyreek Hill went in the fifth round last year, after all his trouble in college, and the Chiefs got away with one, and he’s been clean off the field since the draft. Every team will vet him.”
Mixon punched a woman in the face in 2014 and was kicked off the Oklahoma team for the season. He did later return, but the video of the incident has haunted him and caused the NFL to ban him from the combine. Albert Breer of The MMQBspoke to Mixon, who said he was not upset about being excluded from the combine.
“It’s not in my hands, to make that decision,” Mixon told Breer. “At the end of the day, I respect the NFL not inviting me. And I’ve got another opportunity to show what I can do, at the pro day … They came up with a decision. And like I said, I respect it.”
Breer will write in-depth about Mixon later this week here at The MMQB. For now, be ready to get inundated by combine talk. Mayock and NFL Network will bring the event into living rooms Friday through Monday, beginning at 9 a.m.
We’ll have staffers of The MMQBon hand, writing later this week. We’ve got some good stories working, so check back often.
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Browns Are on the Clock, in More Ways Than One
Finding a long-term answer at quarterback continues to be a priority for the Browns and coach Hue Jackson
Photo: Nick Cammett/Diamond Images/Getty Images
Cleveland has such an embarrassment of riches in the draft that soon they’re going to run out of reasons why they can’t win. Last year the Browns had 14 overall picks, the most they’ve had in a season since they had 15 in 1979. [Ozzie Newsome had just finished his rookie year at the time of that draft.] This year Cleveland enters the draft season with eight picks in the top 150 … two more than any other team in the NFL in the top 150.
The picks: 1, 12, 33, 52, 65, 108, 142, 145.
In a way it’s almost cruel that such a crop of picks falls in an overall mediocre year for the quarterback position. If the Browns don’t trade for a promising quarterback like Jimmy Garoppolo, or try to steal a franchised quarterback like Kirk Cousins (well, he’s likely to be franchised by Washington) in free agency, then they’ll be in a tough spot in this draft.
There’s no logical quarterback to take first overall if going by grades; surely Myles Garrett or Jonathan Allen, likely the top two defensive players on the board, will have grades superior to any quarterback in the draft. But with all the teams high in the draft that will need a quarterback (San Francisco at 2, Chicago at 3 and possibly the Jets at 6 and Bills at 10), the Browns may be in a very tough spot.
They may have to over-draft the quarterback they love (if there is one) or risk losing him before they can pick again at 12. Or they may have to trade a significant amount of draft capital to pair with the 12th pick to move up.
I feel for Browns coach Hue Jackson and GM Sashi Brown. Despite letting go three quality offensive players in Alex Mack, Mitchell Schwartz and Taylor Gabriel, they’ve done a lot of right things in the past year.
But the crying need for a quarterback in a year where there’s no sure thing will test every brain in the Cleveland organization, including top scout Andrew Berry and strategist Paul DePodesta. What’s the right thing to do when there’s no obvious right thing to do? For a team that’s 4-33 since Thanksgiving 2014, it’s another crucial—and likely tortured—decision to have to make.
What would I do? Though I continue to think the Patriots won’t trade Garoppolo, I’d offer the Patriots the 12th and 65th picks for him. (This is only if the Browns really like Garoppolo, which I hear they do.) No other team in the league will offer such a lucrative package, and even if Bill Belichick doesn’t want to trade him, it’s likely he’d be tempted by that deal.
I know that so many Browns fans are anti-Garoppolo because of his limited sample size, and I understand that, and I get that the 12th and 65th picks in a very good draft should be Day 1 contributors. But there’s also the matter here of hoarding draft picks, and becoming slaves to them.
Cleveland fans have gotten used to the draft being their Super Bowl. It’s time to sacrifice something significant to get a quarterback. If there’s a QB you love available in April, no package is too rich to get him.
It may come down to this: Do you have more faith in Garoppolo or in one of the rookies to be the best option for the future of the Browns? If you believe one of the kids in the draft is, then you shouldn’t feel bad about the Browns picking him first overall. The quarterback workouts are Saturday on NFL Network. (This week is Plug Central for NFL Network.) Lovers of the Browns should eat up the workouts.
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The Dominant Combine Story
In his SI.com media column, Richard Deitsch often surveys people in the field about a specific question or issue, and I’m thieving from him today. I asked a few draftniks entering scouting combine week: “What’s going to be the dominant story angle coming out of the combine this year?”
Their answers:
Todd McShay, ESPN
“The tight end and running back droughts end in 2017. We haven’t had a tight end selected in the first round of the past two drafts. This year’s group features two that belong in round one: O.J. Howard (Alabama) and David Njoku (Miami). Both are expected to test extremely well in Indianapolis. We’ve only had three first-round backs in the past four drafts.
This group could have up to four: Leonard Fournette of LSU, Dalvin Cook of Florida State, Alvin Kamara of Tennessee and Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey. Final note: One of the three most talented backs in this class was not invited to Indy, Joe Mixon. First-rounder on tape … but which team is willing to take a chance, and at what point of the draft, on a player who knocked out a young lady, and it’s on tape for everyone to see?”
Chris Burke, SI.com
“The wide receiver position is too important, and too many teams are lacking weapons there, for Corey Davis and Mike Williams to be the only two wideouts taken in round one. The combine will throw a few more names into the hat, especially with Davis sitting out drills because of an ankle injury. Washington’s John Ross can fly and might solidify himself as a first-rounder, but he’s not alone.
Prospects like Isaiah Ford (Virginia Tech), Curtis Samuel (Ohio State), K.D. Cannon (Baylor) and Dede Westbrook (Oklahoma) are well-built for the combine’s athletic testing. Will Fuller, now of the Texans, helped push his stock into the first round by breaking off a 4.32-second time in the 40-yard dash at last year’s event, and those named above—and several others—could pull a similar trick this time around. This is a deep receiver group that’s going to open some eyes in Indianapolis.”
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL.com
“This is the deepest group of cornerbacks and safeties I’ve seen in a very long time. I think we’ll all be gushing about this secondary class following this year’s combine. I currently have 10 cornerbacks in my top 50 list, and I could easily add another four to five names based on what I’ve studied thus far. I think we will be blown away after watching the on-field workouts.
All of them have an impressive combination of size/speed, and they are very fluid movers. The safety group has a nice mixture of over-the-top free safety prospects and rolled-up box safety types. The personnel community will be giddy after watching them run, jump and move around on the field.”
Matt Miller, Bleacher Report
“The biggest storyline coming out of the 2017 combine will be the athleticism of Leonard Fournette. He’s been a forgotten man for much of the season due to the ankle injury that sidelined him and then the fact that he wasn’t eligible to compete in the Senior Bowl. That will change next week. Fournette is a beast at 6'1" and 235 pounds, and I’ve been told in training he was running in the low 4.4s in the 40-yard-dash.
That’s unreal. His overall numbers will best those of Derrick Henry and be on par with Ezekiel Elliott. The running back may not be a premium draft pick anymore, but elite athletes like Fournette are always prioritized at the top of the draft order. Leaving Indianapolis, Fournette should be talked about as a top-five player.”
Dane Brugler, CBS Sports and NFLDraftScout.com
“Many tend to judge draft classes by the quarterback prospects and although this year’s crop doesn’t have a clear-cut number one overall candidate, it is not a weak class. North Carolina’s Mitch Trubisky, Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson and Texas Tech’s Pat Mahomes are the top four, and while each of their games has holes, each is also uniquely talented with NFL starting potential.
But what order will they come off the board? How many in the top 10? Will another quarterback work his way into the mix? With several NFL teams searching for an upgrade at the position, the quarterback dominoes will start to fall at the combine and give us a better idea of how the quarterback market will all shake out.”
Josh Norris, RotoWorld, NBCSports.com
“The 40-yard dash. ‘Who ran fast?’ What Bill Walsh called the universal measurable has been the athleticism identifier at the combine. That is wrong, and we need to progress our understanding and interpretation of NFL combine results. Shining in one area does not make a top athlete, and I would throw in Chicago running back Jeremy Langford as an example. He ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash at the combine in 2015, which led all running backs.
The rest of his workout was below average, but he was labeled as a top athlete due to the singular run. Each test and result should be factored in with a prospect’s weight in order to create a composite score. That composite score, from a consistent formula, can act as an athletic profile. Too many, including NFL teams, misunderstand how to identify athleticism and use it as a tool.”
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“I’ve never been to the combine. You can’t watch anything. It’s a waste.”
—ESPN’s Mel Kiper, to The MMQB’s Kalyn Kahler, in “Talking Football.”
That’s a little bit like Peter Gammons saying he’s never been to the World Series.
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A linebacker likely to go in the top half of the first round, Alabama’s Reuben Foster, has overcome quite a bit to get to the combine this week. When Foster was 18 months old, according to AL.com, his mother was holding him, and his father shot her multiple times in the back. One of the bullets hit Reuben. She didn’t tell him until he was 5, and the wound didn’t impact his football career.
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Things I Think I Think
I think it’s silly to not have Joe Mixon and Chad Kelly at the scouting combine. Isn’t the object of the post-season information-gathering season to gather as much information as you can about all good prospects in the draft—particularly the ones whose cases will be the toughest to figure out? How does it benefit information-gatherers if they can’t learn first-hand about the toughest cases?
I think this is the oddest configuration in the draft order announced by the NFL on Friday:
• Seattle has no picks between the first and 25th overall slots.
• Seattle has five picks between the 26th and 106th overall slots.
• Seattle has no picks between the 107th and 209th overall slots.
I think Myles Garrett is going to be the first overall pick on April 27. By someone.
