On Jared Goff and the play-action

[WestCoastRam]

Jared Goff Has A Play-Action Problem | Sharp Football

Jared Goff, Sean McVay, and the Los Angeles Rams have mastered play-action, but the offense has struggled with the play fake in 2019.

www.sharpfootballanalysis.com

Jared Goff Has A Play-Action Problem
BY DAN PIZZUTA|SEP 25, 2019

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The Los Angeles Rams are 3-0, but not a particularly dominant 3-0. A Week 2 win against the New Orleans Saints aside — one that saw Drew Brees leave early with an injury — the Rams have played some close and sloppy games. Much of this comes from an offense that has yet to really take off through three weeks.
Los Angeles currently ranks 16th in offensive DVOA and that is brought down by a passing game that ranks 20th, a year after they were fifth on the way to a Super Bowl appearance.
A big key to that success was the play-action game. Since Sean McVay took over as the head coach, there has not been a team that has used play-action to a bigger advantage.
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Last year, the Rams used play-action on a league-leading 36% of pass plays and their 9.4 yards per play with play-action was second to the New England Patriots. This year, the Rams are still using play-action at a high rate — 34%, which ranks fifth — but the production hasn’t been there. They’re averaging just 7.8 yards per play with play-action, which ranks 19th. It doesn’t help that the offense has been even worse on straight drop backs, where their 5.9 yards per play ranks 23rd.
Among 32 quarterbacks with at least 10 play-action attempts this season, Jared Goff ranks 24th in Expected Points Added and 28th in Adjusted Yards (weighted for touchdowns and interceptions) per attempt. If the offense is going to hit its stride, this play-action game is going to have to improve.
All Figured Out
Midway through the 2018 season, the Detroit Lions laid the foundation of a blueprint to slow the Rams offense. The strategy was then adopted and adapted by the likes of the Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears in the regular season and famously the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. The most basic takeaways of this defensive plan is a heavy 6-man front to stop the run and late-shifting coverage on the back end of the secondary to confuse what Goff believes he sees pre-snap.
The run fits haven’t been much of an issue. It’s been something McVay has already started to figure out. It hasn’t completely slowed down the run game, either; despite a lack of big gains from Todd Gurley, the Rams still rank fifth in rushing DVOA so far this season.
However, the coverage and how Goff has responded to it remains an issue. All three of Goff’s interceptions this season have come on play-action passes. Last year, Goff only had two total interceptions off play-action for the entire season.
One piece of the coverage blueprint against the Rams’ play-action was to sit back in coverage and allow the routes to develop in front of the secondary before breaking on the ball. This has happened on two of Goff’s 2019 interceptions.
Against the Panthers in Week 1, Goff thought he would have Robert Woods open on a deep dig in front of cornerback James Bradburry. But when Woods made his cut, Bradberry broke in front of the receiver and was able to intercept the pass.


Also, notice how the linebackers on the Panthers didn’t break on the play-fake. All of them stood their ground to watch for the run then backpedaled into coverage on the ground. This took away the shallow routes for Goff to target.
Another strike on Goff for this play is the window for Cooper Kupp on the deep cross in front of the safety, one much bigger than what he tried to hit with Woods.
Against Cleveland in Week 3, a zone drop by the Browns’ drop took away Goff’s first read to his right and as he turned to the left, he drifted in the pocket and waited too long for Brandin Cooks to break to the sideline. Goff’s arm strength doesn’t hold him back on things like deep passes, but he doesn’t have the arm to fit a ball that late into a closing window. Cornerback T.J Carrie was able to jump in front of Cooks for the interception.


A potential silver lining is despite the interceptions, Goff is slightly above average in positive play rate (the percentage of plays that produce positive EPA) on play-action. He’s at 51.2% through three weeks, just slightly behind his 55.2% figure last season, per Sports Info Solutions.

It’s not like Goff has suddenly lost all ability to take advantage of play-action, but the big plays have been replaced to this point with bad ones.
Under More Pressure
While Goff has certainly struggled on these play-action passes, he hasn’t gotten a lot of help from the players in front of him on the offensive line. Pass protection, especially on play-action, was a strength for the Rams last season when they ranked first as a team in ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate. This season, the Rams aren’t even a top-10 team by PBWR through three weeks.
Last year, Goff was under pressure on 53 of his 212 play-action drop backs, per SIS, a 25% rate. So far this season that has increased to 17-of-37 drop backs, a 46% rate. But impressively, Goff has held up fairly well under pressure — much better than he did last season.

YEAR	ATT	COMP%	ON-TARGET%	YPA	EPA	POSITIVE PLAY%
2018	53	35.8%	49.1%	5.4	0.3	31.5%
2019	17	70.6%	82.4%	7.9	0.5	52.9%

Of course, the problem here is performance under pressure isn’t stable and if a big part of Goff’s play-action success so far has been under pressure, that doesn’t bode well for predicting future play-action success.
Goff’s play under pressure is far more likely to get worse than stay at this rate and that’s concerning when his play from a clean pocket has been dreadful on play-action passes.

YEAR	ATT	COMP%	ON-TARGET%	YPA	EPA	POSITIVE PLAY%
2018	129	70.5%	81.4%	11.8	52.8	62.4%
2019	14	50.0%	78.6%	7.4	-4.4	42.9%

At this point, it looks like Goff is stuck between taking too long to process what’s happening in front of him and then rushing everything once he’s figured it out.
Take this play against Cleveland on a 1st and 10. Goff wants Woods on a deep crosser. He has to sidestep pressure and by the time he shuffles multiple times to set for the throw, the window closes and the pass is broken up. Meanwhile in front of Goff, Kupp has a ton of open space to run on a check down.


Goff’s second interception of the game was also forced into a closed window while he had a check down opening up on a 3rd and 3.
This shouldn’t doom the Rams for the remainder of the season. Overall Goff isn’t forcing balls into tight windows at an abnormally high rate — he’s at just 12.4% per Next Gen Stats — but it’s certainly something that needs to be fixed. McVay can add in some more short and intermediate options on these passes that allow Goff to process more quickly and create more separation when these defensive backs are staying back on the routes.
However McVay chooses to fix it, the sooner a solution is found, the better. Play-action success is the key to how this offense functions and as long as that isn’t at full capacity, the Rams will struggle to reach their full potential as a contender.

 

[WestCoastRam]

Additionally, Ted Nyguyen at the Athletic has a great article on how McVay has changed some concepts to attack the 6-1 defense with soft-zone behind it. It's behind the paywall of course but I think it's just another reason to throw 5 bucks a month at them if you got it.

I can say that the takeaway from the article is McVay is absolutely doing stuff to counter it and help Jared out but perhaps not enough. Also, teams that used to try to stop the run on us and make Goff beat us are now trying to take away Goff and the outside zone and make us beat them with any runner (a not as effective Gurley) and style of running (inside zone, gap blocking scheme) we decide or not decide to throw at them.

 

[Faceplant]

If Goff was playing better football, we would be just fine. Hopefully we get healthy and more mature on the OL and Goff settles down.

 

[WestCoastRam]

Oh, and Rich Hammond just posted a piece on Goff at Athletic too. I swear I'm not a shill... I was actually on the fence about subscribing but did it during one of their sales and I think you get some great content there.

 

[BonifayRam]

Jared Goff on Rams' offense: 'We expect to be better'

Jared Goff on Rams' offense: 'We expect to be better'

www.nfl.com

The best teams in the NFL aren't playing their best ball in September. That comes in December, January, and, hopefully, February.

Teams use the early schedule to adjust to new personnel and discover what the best version of themselves should look like moving forward for that year. The top squads do this while continuing to win, even if those victories aren't pretty.

The New England Patriots are often the best example of this phenomenon, sometimes stumbling in September before steamrolling the AFC when the weather turns.

This year, it's the Los Angeles Rams who are trying to find themselves offensively while leaning on the defense to sprint to a 3-0 record ahead of Sunday's tilt versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Through three weeks Sean McVay's offense has been stuck in second gear, unable to shift.

Gone are the explosive downfield plays set up off play action. Gone is the drive-churning runs that move the chains.

"For us internally, our standards are so high, especially offensively," quarterback Jared Goff said Wednesday, via The Associated Press. "We expect to be better, and we need to be if we want to win games late in the year. We've been fortunate enough to do enough to win these past three games, but we know that in certain games down the road, it won't be enough. We need to elevate that standard even further and continue to be detailed and be sharp on offense."

The Rams haven't been the same since Week 13 last season when Detroit Lions coach Matt Patricia unleashed a six-man front negating much of the Rams' outside zone runs. A blueprint for slowing Goff's offense was born. Bill Belichick, Patricia's previous boss, perfected the script in the Super Bowl.

As he's done all offseason, McVay has turned the finger on himself, saying he needs to be better at finding the answers for his players.

"Absolutely, I haven't done a good enough job for us," he said. "I think it starts with me. I like the way we've responded and been able to finish games out in the second half, but we expect to be sharper overall. If I do a better job, and then everybody else does a little bit better, we're hopeful that we'll see better results."

It's good of McVay to blame himself and not throw players under the bus, but the refrain is getting old. Whether it's his insistence that Todd Gurley's usage is his fault, or plays don't work because they were a bad call on his part, or yadda, yadda, yadda. McVay's been blaming himself since the offense put up three points in the Super Bowl.

Yet, for all the self-flagellation, the offense still hasn't found a groove. Goff looks discombobulated and a far cry from the self-confident slinger we saw early last year. Gurley still hasn't broken free on his questionable knee. Aside from a few splash plays from Cooper Kupp, the Rams' offense remains off-track.

Luckily for L.A. they have a defense that can smother opponents and plenty of time to find the answers that have thus far eluded McVay.

 

[Jacobarch]

Man I've never seen so much put on a team that's 3-0

 

[BonifayRam]

Jared Goff explains why criticism of Rams’ 3-0 start is good for the team
By: Steve Rebeiro

Jared Goff explains why criticism of Rams’ 3-0 start is good for the team

Rams fans have been at war the past few days over whether or not they should be criticizing a 3-0 team. Jared Goff is okay with it.

theramswire.usatoday.com

The Los Angeles Rams have been the subject of much scrutiny this week. Their offense has stumbled out of the gate and they struggled to close-out a game against the inferior Cleveland Browns. There’s been plenty of criticism regarding the reigning NFC Champions through the first three weeks of the season.

Rams fans have been divided on whether or not the criticism is warranted, as the team has won their first three games. Fans have debated whether or not it’s a good thing that people are criticizing a team who has yet to lose in 2019. Critics have noted that they hold the team to a higher standard given their recent success. Jared Goff also holds the team to a higher standard.

“I think it’s good,” Goff told the media regarding everyone being critical despite the 3-0 start. “I know it’s coming from you guys, but for us internally, our standards are so high, especially offensively.”

Through the first three games of the season, the Rams defense has been nothing short of excellent. It’s the offense that is being scrutinized. The Rams are currently 16th in total yards and 22nd in passing yards. For a team that finished second and fifth in those respective categories last year, the start is unacceptable.

“Offensively, our standards are so high,” Goff note.“We expect to be better and we need to be if we want to win games late in the year and continue to be competitive.” Rams Twitter was in a civil war after the team squeaked out a 20-13 win in Cleveland on Sunday night. Some were quick to criticize the team for a sloppy win, while others appreciated the fact that this team is 3-0 with one of the most talented rosters in the league.

Both sides have reasonable stances. 10 years ago, the Rams won a total of three games over a two year stretch. Time heals all wounds, but the wounds of that era have scarred over. It’s important to take a step back and appreciate that the Rams it only took them three games to win three games, not 32.

Still, fans should not be afraid to criticize the team because of their dark history. The Rams simply have not looked as good as they did a year ago, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Healthy criticism is warranted.

Nobody on the roster should be benched and nobody on the staff should be fired, but there are plenty of things the Rams can fix heading into their Week 4 bout with the Buccaneers. Goff would agree with that.

“We are 3-0, we’ve been able to be fortunate enough to do enough to win these past three games, but we know that in certain games down the road it won’t be enough. We need to elevate that standard even further and continue to be detailed and be sharp on offense.”

The Rams are off to a good start. If they can tweak a few things and continue to win games, it’ll be a great start. We’ll see if they can begin to take those steps against Tampa Bay.

 

[Merlin]

It's been mostly player execution tbh. But that doesn't sell in the media, it's much more effective to make a huge deal about where some guys on the defensive front are lining up. McVay's corrections simply need to be executed by the players.

His decision to move into more inside zone is excellent. But I think it's important to remember that inside zone comes with its own drawbacks too, i.e. defenses stacking the A gaps to run/pass rush more often than they would otherwise. So there's a bit of whack-a-mole in drawing it up, but from that perspective we're in great hands with Coach.

Having a more diverse attack is a good thing for the playoffs and allows adjustment depending on what they're facing. If they run into a defensive front they can't beat inside, well ok let's run those pitches and sweeps and attack the edges plus over the top in the pass. It's an adjustment the players need to get good at, to be able to switch it up. That's why the Pats beat us in the Super Bowl, completely renovating what they play in order to best match up with us. So IMO the Rams are in-work learning to do that themselves to a lesser extent but still.

 

[BonifayRam]

Column: Jared Goff and Rams' offense are weighed down without Todd Gurley carrying load

Todd Gurley is involved in 15% fewer snaps and Jared Goff no longer benefits from that dominating presence. The Rams' offense is not the same.

www.latimes.com

Jared Goff and Rams’ offense are weighed down without Todd Gurley carrying load

 

[Merlin]

Real nice interview with Allen here. I think he sums things up nicely:

Rams Video | Los Angeles Rams - therams.com

www.therams.com

 

[KayJay]

It's been mostly player execution tbh. But that doesn't sell in the media, it's much more effective to make a huge deal about where some guys on the defensive front are lining up. McVay's corrections simply need to be executed by the players.

His decision to move into more inside zone is excellent. But I think it's important to remember that inside zone comes with its own drawbacks too, i.e. defenses stacking the A gaps to run/pass rush more often than they would otherwise. So there's a bit of whack-a-mole in drawing it up, but from that perspective we're in great hands with Coach.

Having a more diverse attack is a good thing for the playoffs and allows adjustment depending on what they're facing. If they run into a defensive front they can't beat inside, well ok let's run those pitches and sweeps and attack the edges plus over the top in the pass. It's an adjustment the players need to get good at, to be able to switch it up. That's why the Pats beat us in the Super Bowl, completely renovating what they play in order to best match up with us. So IMO the Rams are in-work learning to do that themselves to a lesser extent but still.

I'm an avid basketball fan. I absolutely loved watching LeBron James dominate in Miami, although I was a Kings fan. Those first two years, they completely dominated. But by the third year it was no longer easy for them. They were getting every teams best. The closer somebody was to beating them, would make the next teams confidence in winning that much stronger.

"We can do it, the last team almost did it; and we're better than them."

We are recieving every teams best shot. They are all using the same concept the Lions and Patriots used. Before we couldn't move the ball against it, now we are. Goff is being tested more, and has improved under pressure. McVay is just as frustrated as everyone else not happy with the way we are winning. But pressure makes diamonds. We are in the process of evolving, or transforming. And like any beautiful butterfly, a Caterpillar has to make that grotesque cocoon first.

Real nice interview with Allen here. I think he sums things up nicely:

Rams Video | Los Angeles Rams - therams.com

www.therams.com

Two things to note here. Nobody is happy with the way they are playing. They know what defenses are doing and have it figured out. Keep relying on a teams weakness and suddenly it becomes their strength. If the Rams know you're dependent on using the same concept to slow us down; then changing on the fly becomes that much easier. Tbh, I think McVay just underestimated how much this is a copycat league.

 

[Angry Ram]

Ughh...

Carolina, the aints, and Browns all have good defenses.

I mean if the Rams also played against the Dolphins, Giants, and Redskins like NE and Dallas does, then would they suddenly be the obvious Super Bowl contenders?

 

[KayJay]

Ughh...

Carolina, the aints, and Browns all have good defenses.

I mean if the Rams also played against the Dolphins, Giants, and Redskins like NE and Dallas does, then would they suddenly be the obvious Super Bowl contenders?

Well some people are turned off by the fact that most of the DB's from the Browns game were second stringers. But the funny thing is lolol, Tennesee hung 4 TD's on their first string defense. So how the hell do we know that the guys coming off the bench aren't a better mixture? We don't.

I'm not saying people are overreacting. But god damn, it feels like media and fans think were the worst 3-0 team ever.

 

[WestCoastRam]

It's been mostly player execution tbh. But that doesn't sell in the media, it's much more effective to make a huge deal about where some guys on the defensive front are lining up. McVay's corrections simply need to be executed by the players.

His decision to move into more inside zone is excellent. But I think it's important to remember that inside zone comes with its own drawbacks too, i.e. defenses stacking the A gaps to run/pass rush more often than they would otherwise. So there's a bit of whack-a-mole in drawing it up, but from that perspective we're in great hands with Coach.

Having a more diverse attack is a good thing for the playoffs and allows adjustment depending on what they're facing. If they run into a defensive front they can't beat inside, well ok let's run those pitches and sweeps and attack the edges plus over the top in the pass. It's an adjustment the players need to get good at, to be able to switch it up. That's why the Pats beat us in the Super Bowl, completely renovating what they play in order to best match up with us. So IMO the Rams are in-work learning to do that themselves to a lesser extent but still.

Absolutely it's on player execution. Could McVay do one or two things different to goose things along, sure. It's a delicate balance between changing things a bit and throwing out the baby with the bathwater. Some great pieces in the Athletic show just how much McVay has shifted some things on offense. (Toss-crack runs, more spread sets, shorter developing pass plays, outside wr screens, inside zone, play-action come-back passes).

Oline and Goff need to step it up more. Maybe the Wrs but not sure drops were an issue prior to this Browns game... PS, who messed up on that 1st offensive series at the Browns game when Goff missed Woods wide. Was it Goff or Woods?

 

[Merlin]

Oline and Goff need to step it up more. Maybe the Wrs but not sure drops were an issue prior to this Browns game... PS, who messed up on that 1st offensive series at the Browns game when Goff missed Woods wide. Was it Goff or Woods?

I'd say neither tbh. I put that one up in the other thread. Goff's only mistake was that he tunnel visioned his target but he might have looked at the others as I'm only going off where his helmet is pointed. The still of the coverage shows everyone blanketed if we're talking about the same play. So I believe he forced it back shoulder hoping Woods could make a play on it.

 

[WestCoastRam]

I'd say neither tbh. I put that one up in the other thread. Goff's only mistake was that he tunnel visioned his target but he might have looked at the others as I'm only going off where his helmet is pointed. The still of the coverage shows everyone blanketed if we're talking about the same play. So I believe he forced it back shoulder hoping Woods could make a play on it.

Nice, thanks Merlin. My takes are often based on what I see during the game at game speed or from clips in articles or due to Mercury being in retrograde.

So it's awesome to have you review the tape as in depth as you do. Really appreciate the work!

 

[thirteen28]

Man I've never seen so much put on a team that's 3-0

The bar is set much higher nowadays. If you remember after the 2016 season, so many players were saying we need accountability around here, and they were right. Now we have it.

The encouraging thing is that McVay is looking for ways to attack what other teams have been doing to our offense. He may not have found the best formula yet, and he may be dealing with changes on the interior OL, but at least he's not Martzing/Fishering it, i.e. trying to stubbornly stick to what's not working on the theory if they only try harder it will really work next time.

 

[Merlin]

The bar is set much higher nowadays. If you remember after the 2016 season, so many players were saying we need accountability around here, and they were right. Now we have it.

The encouraging thing is that McVay is looking for ways to attack what other teams have been doing to our offense. He may not have found the best formula yet, and he may be dealing with changes on the interior OL, but at least he's not Martzing/Fishering it, i.e. trying to stubbornly stick to what's not working on the theory if they only try harder it will really work next time.

Yep. And I love that McVay keeps that bar high... This ain't your Jeff Fisher Rams.


View: https://twitter.com/VinnyBonsignore/status/1177005482390671360

 

[Jacobarch]

The bar is set much higher nowadays. If you remember after the 2016 season, so many players were saying we need accountability around here, and they were right. Now we have it.

The encouraging thing is that McVay is looking for ways to attack what other teams have been doing to our offense. He may not have found the best formula yet, and he may be dealing with changes on the interior OL, but at least he's not Martzing/Fishering it, i.e. trying to stubbornly stick to what's not working on the theory if they only try harder it will really work next time.

While I agree, I think we've also become spoiled as fans. I think we expect the Rams to put up 30 every game. Coaches are too smart in the NFL to let that keep happening. Good news is while we tweak our offense our Defense seems to be able to hold their own until they get those things figured out.

 

[thirteen28]

While I agree, I think we've also become spoiled as fans. I think we expect the Rams to put up 30 every game. Coaches are too smart in the NFL to let that keep happening. Good news is while we tweak our offense our Defense seems to be able to hold their own until they get those things figured out.

It's a fair argument that we've become spoiled as fans. But at the same time, we've seen what our offense can do with the talent it has, and we expect them to perform to that level most of the time, whereas they really haven't in three games this year. I think they'll get there eventually, but it's ok to note that they haven't so far.