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http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fa...151/offseason-extra-impact-of-new-playcallers
Offseason Extra: Impact of new playcallers
Dave Richard
Senior Fantasy Writer
Feb. 26, 2015 5:02 PM ET
A long, long time ago, I learned that it's important to project from the perspective of the team's coaches and playcallers. In Fantasy, it's not about what I would like to see happen -- it's about what I think a play-caller will do in a given week and season. That's why it's important to research playcallers and discover their tendencies. If we have an idea of what direction they'll go in, we can attack it during our drafts.
Thirteen coaches have either changed teams or been promoted as new playcallers in 2014. This includes guys like Adam Gase and Kyle Shanahan switching teams but not job titles, as well as men like Gary Kubiak and Marc Trestman, who are moving to new locales and accepting new roles -- but are still calling plays. You might think the turnover is awfully high, but there have been at least that many in each of the last three offseasons.
Our research doesn't take production into consideration -- after all, it's not like the coaches are doing the passing, running and catching. They know who should get the ball and they unanimously get their playmakers involved. That's just plain ol' common sense. Instead, the study is based on how often they chose run and pass plays, how frequently running backs got carries and how frequently running backs, receivers and tight ends were used in the passing game. It all paints a picture we can use look at to make some conclusions for the upcoming season.
Kyle Shanahan, Falcons
Shanahan spent one season actually calling plays with the Texans (2009) before doing so for the Redskins (2010-13) and last year with the Browns. Of course, his experience in pro football dates back to his youth while his dad, Mike Shanahan, worked with the Raiders, 49ers and Broncos.
Average pass/run ratio: 56 pass/44 run
Shanahan has been a pass-oriented playcaller for all but one season -- the rookie year of Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris when the Skins ran a combined 455 times (the Redskins ran 519 times, the most by a Shanahan-coached offense by a mile).
Average RB carries: 22.8 per game
Only once has Shanahan's running backs not averaged at least 22 carries per game -- Washington in 2010. The team was a mess and injuries hampered the running back corps. But it's not like he's known for running it down people's throats -- four of six years have fluctuated between 22.0 and 23.4 handoffs per game. That's his wheelhouse as the 26.7 carries per game he got out of Browns running backs last year was out of necessity.
Receptions: WRs trending up, RBs trending down
Over the last three seasons we've seen Shanahan's running backs dip in receptions while receivers have gained at least 63 percent of all catches. That's especially a lot for Shahanan's guys since in his early Washington days it wasn't uncommon to see receivers catch less than 50 percent of all receptions.
Tight ends: at least 20 percent of all receptions
There's no doubt that Shanahan's father as well as mentor Gary Kubiak have rubbed off on him. Tight ends have caught at least 19.7 percent of the team's receptions over Shanahan's last five years.
Bottom line: Shanahan is going to have a good time leaning on Matt Ryan. That should bode very well for Julio Jones and Roddy White, who you were going to draft anyway. Keep an eye on who they add at tight end -- that guy could wind up as a good sleeper. Don't count on a slew of receptions for Devonta Freeman, assuming Freeman ends training camp as the Falcons' top back.
Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers
Koetter has been involved in playcalling for 30 years. We're focusing on his eight most recent seasons with the Jaguars, 2007-2011, and Falcons, 2012-2014. All of his other coaching experience was at the college level.
Average pass/run ratio: 56 pass/44 run
His three years with the Falcons saw him at 64 pass/36 run, a stark difference from his five seasons with the Jaguars at 51 pass/49 run. But what this tells you is that Koetter focuses on the strength of his offenses and doesn't push his own preferences. That's a good quality.
Average RB carries: 23.2 per game
Again, it's a little misleading to lean on this number given the different types of players he's coached. In Atlanta his backs totaled 20.2 carries per game while in Jacksonville he called handoffs to running backs 25.0 times per game. It's just another illustration that Koetter will lean on his strengths, whatever they may be.
Receptions: RBs steadily involved
OK, I lied. There is one thing Koetter consistently does and that's get the ball into his running backs' hands. In eight NFL seasons, Koetter's backs caught anywhere from 21.2 to 28.5 percent of his teams' receptions. Typically, 20 percent is real good and 25 percent is real great.
Tight ends: mostly good news
It hasn't always equated to amazing stats but tight ends have churned out an average of about 20 percent of a team's receptions under Koetter. An exception was last season with the Falcons, when he went from Tony Gonzalez to Levine Toilolo.
Bottom line: Since Koetter is with the Bucs, we can't say with certainty who he'll have at his disposal. We know Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins will be there. They'll definitely be involved. Koetter will likely have a rookie quarterback and at the very least a two-headed run game with Charles Sims and (maybe) Doug Martin. Sims, who has very good hands, could especially benefit as a pass catcher.
Bill Musgrave, Raiders
The Raiders are the fifth NFL offense Musgrave will coordinate in the NFL after spending 2011-13 with the Vikings, 2003-04 with the Jaguars, four games in 2000 with the Panthers and 10 games in 1998 with the Eagles. He also spent two years at the University of Virginia, which is included in his overall numbers.
Average pass/run ratio: 53 pass/47 run
Whether it was college or pro, Musgrave leaned toward passing more than rushing on a per-game basis. Even if you take out his two years at Virginia, he'd have a pro mark of 54 pass/46 run. He was 56 pass/44 run in his final year with the Vikings.
Average RB carries: 23.6 per game
That's a consistent average Musgrave is sporting. His backs bounced between 20.5 and 25.7 carries per game with one outlier: 27.5 carries per game during Fred Taylor's career-high 1,572 yard season in 2003. Musgrave was also the playcaller during Adrian Peterson's 2,097-yard season. Vikings rushers averaged 25.1 carries per game that year -- 21.7 per for Peterson.
Receptions: Steady for WRs, not for RBs and TEs
Receivers have accounted for 54 to 60 percent of Musgrave's reception totals with the remaining 40 to 46 percent varying between running backs and tight ends. It seems like something switched when Musgrave landed with the Vikings -- before then, his running backs had at least 25 percent of the receiving total annually. But with Minnesota, running backs had 21.3 percent or fewer (as low as 17 percent) of the team's reception tally.
Tight ends: Involved lately
Meanwhile, tight ends covered 22 to 24 percent of the catches per year with Minnesota while not being as useful in Musgrave's other stops, save for his four games with the Panthers when he worked with Wesley Walls. Perhaps Musgrave has learned to lean on tight ends more.
Bottom line: Musgrave said it himself -- he's going to "tailor" the run game for Latavius Murray. You can't help but think positively, especially taking Musgrave's experience of working with Peterson and Taylor into consideration. We'll see if he can pick up a bunch of catches, though. It goes without saying that any new receiving talent in Oakland will get a nice chunk of work. As for the Raiders tight ends, it's going to come down to how much Musgrave, and by extension Derek Carr, like Mychal Rivera.
Chan Gailey, Jets
Gailey has 21 years of playcalling experience across pro and college football. The focus here will be specifically on his last four seasons, all in the NFL (2008 with Kansas City, 2010-12 with Buffalo). Fun fact: the three years Gailey spent in Buffalo were the most consecutive seasons he spent with an NFL team as a playcaller.
Average pass/run ratio: 57 pass/43 run
Perhaps this ratio is because Gailey had to pass. In the four years under our microscope he totaled 18 wins. That's very bad. Back in the day he might have been a lot closer to 50-50 than this but perhaps he had to throw to try and win some games.
Average RB carries: 21.0 per game
That's a stunningly low number considering Gailey's reputation, but again, this is just his last four years. But if you think this means his running backs will be under utilized, keep reading.
Receptions: RBs very much in the mix
Gailey's backs caught a higher percentage of passes year after year, with a low of 19.4 percent in 2008 to a big ol' 26.5 percent of the catches in Buffalo in 2012. So backs make up for their lack of carries in the passing game. Numbers for receivers in Buffalo slid the other way -- 71.3 pct. in 2010, 61.8 pct. in 2011, 55.3 pct. in 2012.
Tight ends: Bad news
With Kansas City, Gailey leaned on his tight end, but only because it was Tony Gonzalez. In Buffalo, tight ends caught less than 20 percent of the team's receptions in any given year. There's more -- tight ends have habitually not been a big part of Gailey's offenses. You'd have to go back to David LaFleur with the 1999 Cowboys to find a solid contributor.
Bottom line: The Jets' best running back isn't on the roster. Chris Ivory might get a piece of the rushing workload but he's not known for his receiving skills. Knowing Gailey, whoever the Jets' passing downs back is will be the better Fantasy bet. Eric Decker shouldn't suffer much, but what about second-year tight end Jace Amaro? You might think he's in the wrong system, but he's not a traditional tight end. Smart money is on Gailey trying to use Amaro as a mismatch receiver sort of like how the Saints use Jimmy Graham. That's a good thing.
Greg Roman, Bills
Roman's first and only crack at calling plays was with the 49ers from 2011 to 2014. Check that -- he also was an offensive coordinator for Holy Cross High School in 1998. But we're going to overlook that and focus on his time under Jim Harbaugh.
Average pass/run ratio: 48 pass/52 run
Roman and Bills head coach Rex Ryan are a match made in ground-and-pound/control-the-clock heaven. With the Niners he was often very focused on running the ball, a factor that saw Roman run fewer plays per game than most offensive coordinators.
Average RB carries: 24.5 per game
You were expecting less? Shoot, maybe you were expecting more! This average was higher by pretty much a carry per game entering 2014, but the Niners loosened up and threw a little more than in the past (not that it helped them).
Receptions: Less for the RBs
Roman's offense isn't catered for rushers to catch a lot of passes. Backs had less than 20 percent of the Niners' reception totals in each of Roman's four years. Receivers did great last season but that thanks to Vernon Davis' heart-wrenching decline. Before 2014, receivers were accountable for less than 60 percent of the 49ers' catches. That changed when Davis tanked and receivers picked up nearly 72 percent of the receptions! It's a sign that Roman will lean on his wideouts if a tight end can't be trusted.
Tight ends: a mixed bag
Davis was a successful player before 2014, being the primary tight end to reel in over 30 percent of the 49ers' total receptions in 2011 and over 25 percent in 2013. The bottom fell out on Davis last year and tight ends made up for just 13.4 percent of all Niners grabs. That might end up as the outlier and not the standard.
Bottom line: It goes without saying that the Bills will run the ball. A lot. Is Fred Jackson really in a position to be their workhorse, or is he going to see a reduced role since he's old? Figure that the Bills' best back isn't on their roster (unless they keep C.J. Spiller). As for their tight ends, they don't have a difference maker like Davis and there might not be a priority to get one. That should open the door for Sammy Watkins to get over-targeted and have a crack at over 80 catches in his second season.
Geep Chryst, 49ers
Chryst takes over for Roman as the Niners aim to have as much continuity as possible while overhauling their coaching staff. Chryst had just two years of prior NFL experience calling plays -- with the Chargers in 1999 and 2000. The Bolts combined for nine wins in those seasons.
Average pass/run ratio: 60 pass/40 run
Chryst had to call a lot of passes with the Chargers because they played from behind often and didn't have an effective run game. Even though Chryst has a ton of experience working with quarterbacks, I wouldn't be surprised if he went conservative as Roman was.
Average RB carries: 20.8 per game
Again, the Chargers running backs were pretty deplorable. Under Chryst, running backs scored 17 touchdowns on the ground in two seasons and not one had more than 119 carries. It's pretty much the opposite of what the 49ers have gotten out of their backs since 2011.
Receptions: all about the RBs
Chryst had no problem leaning on his running backs in the passing game. In 1999 they caught a ridiculous 37.7 percent of the Chargers' completions. That number fell to 27.7 percent in 2000 but that's still huge. Because running backs were so key for the Chargers' passing game under Chryst, receivers scrounged up 46.3 percent or less of the receiving workload. We'll see how much of this translates into 2015 as the Niners backs didn't catch many passes in the four years prior.
Tight ends: cool with Chryst
Chryst was involved with the Chargers before Antonio Gates got there but if he had Gates he probably would have helped him set some career-highs. Under Chryst, Chargers tight ends caught 17.7 percent of the team's receptions in 1999 and 26.0 percent in 2000.
Bottom line: It's been 15 years since Chryst had complete control over an offense, so who knows what we'll get. If Carlos Hyde can flash some hands in camp, though, it could be very good news for him. And if Vernon Davis stays with the 49ers, I might like his chances for a rebound year. Also expect a new receiver to be a factor for San Francisco.
Frank Cignetti, Rams
Cignetti has never been a playcaller at the NFL level. He's done it for nine seasons in college -- four with Fresno State (2002-05), 2006 with North Carolina, 2008 with Cal, 2009-10 with Pitt and 2011 with Rutgers. The guy gets around.
There's no doubt he's Jeff Fisher's kind of coordinator -- in his last five years as a playcaller he's been 46 pass/54 run. Collegiate backs have averaged anywhere from 24.7 to 32.7 carries per game. They've also take on a big dose of the receiving workload. This is great news for Tre Mason -- assuming the Rams don't pull a Zac Stacy on him and demote him after four games. Cignetti doesn't have a good track record with tight ends, which could come back to bite Jared Cook in the behind (not that Cook has been a great tight end option for Fantasy anyway). The Rams receivers should pick up a few more opportunities, but that probably hinges on whether or not any of them step up.
John DeFilippo, Browns
DeFilippo is probably the biggest wild card among all of the offensive coordinators as he joins the Browns with exactly one year of playcalling experience -- with the San Jose State Spartans in 2011. He was 57 pass/43 run that year as the school went 5-7. Receivers dominated the receptions, getting 68 percent of them that season.
The rest of the book on DeFilippo is pretty thin. He knew Browns coach Mike Pettine from his one year as the Jets quarterback coach, working with Mark Sanchez as a rookie. The Jets went to the AFC title game that year. DeFilippo also worked with rookie Derek Carr with the Raiders last year and has a total of five years as the Raiders quarterbacks coach. DeFilippo is a former quarterback himself, and typically ex-quarterbacks tend to be more pass-oriented than not. Everything points to the Browns spending a draft pick on a young quarterback and letting DeFilippo work with him, but he'd be foolish to overlook the Browns running backs. Expect the Browns to aim for balance on offense.
Greg Olson, Jaguars
The Jaguars ranked 31st in total yards per game last year. So naturally, they hired the offensive coordinator of the team ranked 32nd in total yards per game to try and improve their situation. That would be Olson, who has been a play caller over six seasons with the Lions, Buccaneers and Raiders, and has an impressively bleak track record. I know I said I wouldn't dig deep into statistical performance, but Olson has had one 1,000-yard rusher (LeGarrette Blount, 1,006 yards, 2010) and zero 1,000-yard receivers under his guidance. And he has had six cracks at this. It's perfectly normal to be nervous about the Jaguars' sleeper prospects.
Marc Trestman, Ravens
The neat thing Trestman is doing in Baltimore is adapting himself to the Ravens current playbook, a refreshing change considering most new offensive coordinators ask their players to learn a new system. Trestman is a smart guy; he'll learn what the players already know and call plays accordingly. And he gets a lot of flack for the Bears' awful 2014 season, but he has remained a master in generating great running backs for Fantasy Football (I doubt that's actually on his resume, but it should be!). How the Ravens move forward at running back should be of big interest -- if their starter is anything like any of Trestman's past backs, he'll be a stud. Trestman's receivers are typically more involved than his tight ends.
Gary Kubiak, Broncos
Kubiak is known for running a west coast offense with a zone-blocking scheme for the run game. But most of that is out the window so long as Peyton Manning is the Denver quarterback. Manning pretty much is his own playcaller in his version of the hurry-up offense and Kubiak would be wise to not change things. Where Kubiak might be influential is in how often Manning leans on the run game in the zone-blocking set and how much Manning relies on a tight end from week to week. Whether it's Julius Thomas or someone else, whoever is the Broncos primary tight end will be an attractive draft choice in Fantasy.
Adam Gase, Bears
Yes, Gase was the offensive coordinator in Denver for the last two seasons, but how many play calls did he make versus Peyton Manning? Chances are, Gase was heavily involved in the preparation but Manning took control of the offense once on the field. Where things brighten for the Bears is that Gase and quarterback Jay Cutler are reportedly close, meaning that they should mesh well together. Gase learned a lot from Manning for sure -- expect the Bears offense to emulate a lot of what we've seen from Denver over the past couple of years. That won't mean Cutler will put up Peyton-esque stats, but he could end up rejoining the Fantasy starter conversation pretty quickly (assuming the Bears keep him).
Tom Clements, Packers
Packers coach Mike McCarthy gave up playcalling duties following the season, handing them to associate head coach and offensive coordinator Tom Clements. A former quarterback for Notre Dame and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers of the Canadian Football League, Clements should end up being as effective for Green Bay as McCarthy, potentially with a slight tick toward throwing more, but if his past stop with Buffalo in 2004 and 2005 is any indication, there will still be plenty of work for Lacy.
Offseason Extra: Impact of new playcallers
Dave Richard
Senior Fantasy Writer
Feb. 26, 2015 5:02 PM ET
A long, long time ago, I learned that it's important to project from the perspective of the team's coaches and playcallers. In Fantasy, it's not about what I would like to see happen -- it's about what I think a play-caller will do in a given week and season. That's why it's important to research playcallers and discover their tendencies. If we have an idea of what direction they'll go in, we can attack it during our drafts.
Thirteen coaches have either changed teams or been promoted as new playcallers in 2014. This includes guys like Adam Gase and Kyle Shanahan switching teams but not job titles, as well as men like Gary Kubiak and Marc Trestman, who are moving to new locales and accepting new roles -- but are still calling plays. You might think the turnover is awfully high, but there have been at least that many in each of the last three offseasons.
Our research doesn't take production into consideration -- after all, it's not like the coaches are doing the passing, running and catching. They know who should get the ball and they unanimously get their playmakers involved. That's just plain ol' common sense. Instead, the study is based on how often they chose run and pass plays, how frequently running backs got carries and how frequently running backs, receivers and tight ends were used in the passing game. It all paints a picture we can use look at to make some conclusions for the upcoming season.
Kyle Shanahan, Falcons
Shanahan spent one season actually calling plays with the Texans (2009) before doing so for the Redskins (2010-13) and last year with the Browns. Of course, his experience in pro football dates back to his youth while his dad, Mike Shanahan, worked with the Raiders, 49ers and Broncos.
Average pass/run ratio: 56 pass/44 run
Shanahan has been a pass-oriented playcaller for all but one season -- the rookie year of Robert Griffin III and Alfred Morris when the Skins ran a combined 455 times (the Redskins ran 519 times, the most by a Shanahan-coached offense by a mile).
Average RB carries: 22.8 per game
Only once has Shanahan's running backs not averaged at least 22 carries per game -- Washington in 2010. The team was a mess and injuries hampered the running back corps. But it's not like he's known for running it down people's throats -- four of six years have fluctuated between 22.0 and 23.4 handoffs per game. That's his wheelhouse as the 26.7 carries per game he got out of Browns running backs last year was out of necessity.
Receptions: WRs trending up, RBs trending down
Over the last three seasons we've seen Shanahan's running backs dip in receptions while receivers have gained at least 63 percent of all catches. That's especially a lot for Shahanan's guys since in his early Washington days it wasn't uncommon to see receivers catch less than 50 percent of all receptions.
Tight ends: at least 20 percent of all receptions
There's no doubt that Shanahan's father as well as mentor Gary Kubiak have rubbed off on him. Tight ends have caught at least 19.7 percent of the team's receptions over Shanahan's last five years.
Bottom line: Shanahan is going to have a good time leaning on Matt Ryan. That should bode very well for Julio Jones and Roddy White, who you were going to draft anyway. Keep an eye on who they add at tight end -- that guy could wind up as a good sleeper. Don't count on a slew of receptions for Devonta Freeman, assuming Freeman ends training camp as the Falcons' top back.
Dirk Koetter, Buccaneers
Koetter has been involved in playcalling for 30 years. We're focusing on his eight most recent seasons with the Jaguars, 2007-2011, and Falcons, 2012-2014. All of his other coaching experience was at the college level.
Average pass/run ratio: 56 pass/44 run
His three years with the Falcons saw him at 64 pass/36 run, a stark difference from his five seasons with the Jaguars at 51 pass/49 run. But what this tells you is that Koetter focuses on the strength of his offenses and doesn't push his own preferences. That's a good quality.
Average RB carries: 23.2 per game
Again, it's a little misleading to lean on this number given the different types of players he's coached. In Atlanta his backs totaled 20.2 carries per game while in Jacksonville he called handoffs to running backs 25.0 times per game. It's just another illustration that Koetter will lean on his strengths, whatever they may be.
Receptions: RBs steadily involved
OK, I lied. There is one thing Koetter consistently does and that's get the ball into his running backs' hands. In eight NFL seasons, Koetter's backs caught anywhere from 21.2 to 28.5 percent of his teams' receptions. Typically, 20 percent is real good and 25 percent is real great.
Tight ends: mostly good news
It hasn't always equated to amazing stats but tight ends have churned out an average of about 20 percent of a team's receptions under Koetter. An exception was last season with the Falcons, when he went from Tony Gonzalez to Levine Toilolo.
Bottom line: Since Koetter is with the Bucs, we can't say with certainty who he'll have at his disposal. We know Mike Evans and Austin Seferian-Jenkins will be there. They'll definitely be involved. Koetter will likely have a rookie quarterback and at the very least a two-headed run game with Charles Sims and (maybe) Doug Martin. Sims, who has very good hands, could especially benefit as a pass catcher.
Bill Musgrave, Raiders
The Raiders are the fifth NFL offense Musgrave will coordinate in the NFL after spending 2011-13 with the Vikings, 2003-04 with the Jaguars, four games in 2000 with the Panthers and 10 games in 1998 with the Eagles. He also spent two years at the University of Virginia, which is included in his overall numbers.
Average pass/run ratio: 53 pass/47 run
Whether it was college or pro, Musgrave leaned toward passing more than rushing on a per-game basis. Even if you take out his two years at Virginia, he'd have a pro mark of 54 pass/46 run. He was 56 pass/44 run in his final year with the Vikings.
Average RB carries: 23.6 per game
That's a consistent average Musgrave is sporting. His backs bounced between 20.5 and 25.7 carries per game with one outlier: 27.5 carries per game during Fred Taylor's career-high 1,572 yard season in 2003. Musgrave was also the playcaller during Adrian Peterson's 2,097-yard season. Vikings rushers averaged 25.1 carries per game that year -- 21.7 per for Peterson.
Receptions: Steady for WRs, not for RBs and TEs
Receivers have accounted for 54 to 60 percent of Musgrave's reception totals with the remaining 40 to 46 percent varying between running backs and tight ends. It seems like something switched when Musgrave landed with the Vikings -- before then, his running backs had at least 25 percent of the receiving total annually. But with Minnesota, running backs had 21.3 percent or fewer (as low as 17 percent) of the team's reception tally.
Tight ends: Involved lately
Meanwhile, tight ends covered 22 to 24 percent of the catches per year with Minnesota while not being as useful in Musgrave's other stops, save for his four games with the Panthers when he worked with Wesley Walls. Perhaps Musgrave has learned to lean on tight ends more.
Bottom line: Musgrave said it himself -- he's going to "tailor" the run game for Latavius Murray. You can't help but think positively, especially taking Musgrave's experience of working with Peterson and Taylor into consideration. We'll see if he can pick up a bunch of catches, though. It goes without saying that any new receiving talent in Oakland will get a nice chunk of work. As for the Raiders tight ends, it's going to come down to how much Musgrave, and by extension Derek Carr, like Mychal Rivera.
Chan Gailey, Jets
Gailey has 21 years of playcalling experience across pro and college football. The focus here will be specifically on his last four seasons, all in the NFL (2008 with Kansas City, 2010-12 with Buffalo). Fun fact: the three years Gailey spent in Buffalo were the most consecutive seasons he spent with an NFL team as a playcaller.
Average pass/run ratio: 57 pass/43 run
Perhaps this ratio is because Gailey had to pass. In the four years under our microscope he totaled 18 wins. That's very bad. Back in the day he might have been a lot closer to 50-50 than this but perhaps he had to throw to try and win some games.
Average RB carries: 21.0 per game
That's a stunningly low number considering Gailey's reputation, but again, this is just his last four years. But if you think this means his running backs will be under utilized, keep reading.
Receptions: RBs very much in the mix
Gailey's backs caught a higher percentage of passes year after year, with a low of 19.4 percent in 2008 to a big ol' 26.5 percent of the catches in Buffalo in 2012. So backs make up for their lack of carries in the passing game. Numbers for receivers in Buffalo slid the other way -- 71.3 pct. in 2010, 61.8 pct. in 2011, 55.3 pct. in 2012.
Tight ends: Bad news
With Kansas City, Gailey leaned on his tight end, but only because it was Tony Gonzalez. In Buffalo, tight ends caught less than 20 percent of the team's receptions in any given year. There's more -- tight ends have habitually not been a big part of Gailey's offenses. You'd have to go back to David LaFleur with the 1999 Cowboys to find a solid contributor.
Bottom line: The Jets' best running back isn't on the roster. Chris Ivory might get a piece of the rushing workload but he's not known for his receiving skills. Knowing Gailey, whoever the Jets' passing downs back is will be the better Fantasy bet. Eric Decker shouldn't suffer much, but what about second-year tight end Jace Amaro? You might think he's in the wrong system, but he's not a traditional tight end. Smart money is on Gailey trying to use Amaro as a mismatch receiver sort of like how the Saints use Jimmy Graham. That's a good thing.
Greg Roman, Bills
Roman's first and only crack at calling plays was with the 49ers from 2011 to 2014. Check that -- he also was an offensive coordinator for Holy Cross High School in 1998. But we're going to overlook that and focus on his time under Jim Harbaugh.
Average pass/run ratio: 48 pass/52 run
Roman and Bills head coach Rex Ryan are a match made in ground-and-pound/control-the-clock heaven. With the Niners he was often very focused on running the ball, a factor that saw Roman run fewer plays per game than most offensive coordinators.
Average RB carries: 24.5 per game
You were expecting less? Shoot, maybe you were expecting more! This average was higher by pretty much a carry per game entering 2014, but the Niners loosened up and threw a little more than in the past (not that it helped them).
Receptions: Less for the RBs
Roman's offense isn't catered for rushers to catch a lot of passes. Backs had less than 20 percent of the Niners' reception totals in each of Roman's four years. Receivers did great last season but that thanks to Vernon Davis' heart-wrenching decline. Before 2014, receivers were accountable for less than 60 percent of the 49ers' catches. That changed when Davis tanked and receivers picked up nearly 72 percent of the receptions! It's a sign that Roman will lean on his wideouts if a tight end can't be trusted.
Tight ends: a mixed bag
Davis was a successful player before 2014, being the primary tight end to reel in over 30 percent of the 49ers' total receptions in 2011 and over 25 percent in 2013. The bottom fell out on Davis last year and tight ends made up for just 13.4 percent of all Niners grabs. That might end up as the outlier and not the standard.
Bottom line: It goes without saying that the Bills will run the ball. A lot. Is Fred Jackson really in a position to be their workhorse, or is he going to see a reduced role since he's old? Figure that the Bills' best back isn't on their roster (unless they keep C.J. Spiller). As for their tight ends, they don't have a difference maker like Davis and there might not be a priority to get one. That should open the door for Sammy Watkins to get over-targeted and have a crack at over 80 catches in his second season.
Geep Chryst, 49ers
Chryst takes over for Roman as the Niners aim to have as much continuity as possible while overhauling their coaching staff. Chryst had just two years of prior NFL experience calling plays -- with the Chargers in 1999 and 2000. The Bolts combined for nine wins in those seasons.
Average pass/run ratio: 60 pass/40 run
Chryst had to call a lot of passes with the Chargers because they played from behind often and didn't have an effective run game. Even though Chryst has a ton of experience working with quarterbacks, I wouldn't be surprised if he went conservative as Roman was.
Average RB carries: 20.8 per game
Again, the Chargers running backs were pretty deplorable. Under Chryst, running backs scored 17 touchdowns on the ground in two seasons and not one had more than 119 carries. It's pretty much the opposite of what the 49ers have gotten out of their backs since 2011.
Receptions: all about the RBs
Chryst had no problem leaning on his running backs in the passing game. In 1999 they caught a ridiculous 37.7 percent of the Chargers' completions. That number fell to 27.7 percent in 2000 but that's still huge. Because running backs were so key for the Chargers' passing game under Chryst, receivers scrounged up 46.3 percent or less of the receiving workload. We'll see how much of this translates into 2015 as the Niners backs didn't catch many passes in the four years prior.
Tight ends: cool with Chryst
Chryst was involved with the Chargers before Antonio Gates got there but if he had Gates he probably would have helped him set some career-highs. Under Chryst, Chargers tight ends caught 17.7 percent of the team's receptions in 1999 and 26.0 percent in 2000.
Bottom line: It's been 15 years since Chryst had complete control over an offense, so who knows what we'll get. If Carlos Hyde can flash some hands in camp, though, it could be very good news for him. And if Vernon Davis stays with the 49ers, I might like his chances for a rebound year. Also expect a new receiver to be a factor for San Francisco.
Frank Cignetti, Rams
Cignetti has never been a playcaller at the NFL level. He's done it for nine seasons in college -- four with Fresno State (2002-05), 2006 with North Carolina, 2008 with Cal, 2009-10 with Pitt and 2011 with Rutgers. The guy gets around.
There's no doubt he's Jeff Fisher's kind of coordinator -- in his last five years as a playcaller he's been 46 pass/54 run. Collegiate backs have averaged anywhere from 24.7 to 32.7 carries per game. They've also take on a big dose of the receiving workload. This is great news for Tre Mason -- assuming the Rams don't pull a Zac Stacy on him and demote him after four games. Cignetti doesn't have a good track record with tight ends, which could come back to bite Jared Cook in the behind (not that Cook has been a great tight end option for Fantasy anyway). The Rams receivers should pick up a few more opportunities, but that probably hinges on whether or not any of them step up.
John DeFilippo, Browns
DeFilippo is probably the biggest wild card among all of the offensive coordinators as he joins the Browns with exactly one year of playcalling experience -- with the San Jose State Spartans in 2011. He was 57 pass/43 run that year as the school went 5-7. Receivers dominated the receptions, getting 68 percent of them that season.
The rest of the book on DeFilippo is pretty thin. He knew Browns coach Mike Pettine from his one year as the Jets quarterback coach, working with Mark Sanchez as a rookie. The Jets went to the AFC title game that year. DeFilippo also worked with rookie Derek Carr with the Raiders last year and has a total of five years as the Raiders quarterbacks coach. DeFilippo is a former quarterback himself, and typically ex-quarterbacks tend to be more pass-oriented than not. Everything points to the Browns spending a draft pick on a young quarterback and letting DeFilippo work with him, but he'd be foolish to overlook the Browns running backs. Expect the Browns to aim for balance on offense.
Greg Olson, Jaguars
The Jaguars ranked 31st in total yards per game last year. So naturally, they hired the offensive coordinator of the team ranked 32nd in total yards per game to try and improve their situation. That would be Olson, who has been a play caller over six seasons with the Lions, Buccaneers and Raiders, and has an impressively bleak track record. I know I said I wouldn't dig deep into statistical performance, but Olson has had one 1,000-yard rusher (LeGarrette Blount, 1,006 yards, 2010) and zero 1,000-yard receivers under his guidance. And he has had six cracks at this. It's perfectly normal to be nervous about the Jaguars' sleeper prospects.
Marc Trestman, Ravens
The neat thing Trestman is doing in Baltimore is adapting himself to the Ravens current playbook, a refreshing change considering most new offensive coordinators ask their players to learn a new system. Trestman is a smart guy; he'll learn what the players already know and call plays accordingly. And he gets a lot of flack for the Bears' awful 2014 season, but he has remained a master in generating great running backs for Fantasy Football (I doubt that's actually on his resume, but it should be!). How the Ravens move forward at running back should be of big interest -- if their starter is anything like any of Trestman's past backs, he'll be a stud. Trestman's receivers are typically more involved than his tight ends.
Gary Kubiak, Broncos
Kubiak is known for running a west coast offense with a zone-blocking scheme for the run game. But most of that is out the window so long as Peyton Manning is the Denver quarterback. Manning pretty much is his own playcaller in his version of the hurry-up offense and Kubiak would be wise to not change things. Where Kubiak might be influential is in how often Manning leans on the run game in the zone-blocking set and how much Manning relies on a tight end from week to week. Whether it's Julius Thomas or someone else, whoever is the Broncos primary tight end will be an attractive draft choice in Fantasy.
Adam Gase, Bears
Yes, Gase was the offensive coordinator in Denver for the last two seasons, but how many play calls did he make versus Peyton Manning? Chances are, Gase was heavily involved in the preparation but Manning took control of the offense once on the field. Where things brighten for the Bears is that Gase and quarterback Jay Cutler are reportedly close, meaning that they should mesh well together. Gase learned a lot from Manning for sure -- expect the Bears offense to emulate a lot of what we've seen from Denver over the past couple of years. That won't mean Cutler will put up Peyton-esque stats, but he could end up rejoining the Fantasy starter conversation pretty quickly (assuming the Bears keep him).
Tom Clements, Packers
Packers coach Mike McCarthy gave up playcalling duties following the season, handing them to associate head coach and offensive coordinator Tom Clements. A former quarterback for Notre Dame and the Winnipeg Blue Bombers of the Canadian Football League, Clements should end up being as effective for Green Bay as McCarthy, potentially with a slight tick toward throwing more, but if his past stop with Buffalo in 2004 and 2005 is any indication, there will still be plenty of work for Lacy.
