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- Jul 14, 2013
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- Ramsey
Ho hum, Friday is upon us. The NFL draft ain't as sexy when your all time favorite team doesn't pick until Saturday. So I got time on my hands, a Goff Hangover, and Pro Football Reference internet site in front of my face. And I'm wondering,
"What are the odds of Les Snead drafting a starter out of rounds 4 and 6?"
Barring a last minute trade. ( I'm looking at you Nick Foles) The Rams got the,
110th and 113th picks in the 4th round
and
the 177th and 190th picks in the 6th round.
Instead of droning on about our needs, I'll cut to the chase and make this short and sweet. The following stats are culled from the last 10 drafts. I'm not mocking the Rams, so I won't mention any names, except for Les Snead and Jeff Fisher.
This isn't about finding a #1 WR or Demonic Edge rusher... The following percentages are the percent chance, odds of finding starters in rounds 4 and 6. How's that for starters? (I promise no more puns)
As I pointed out a month and a half ago, Franchise QB's are most commonly found within the first 4 picks of the first round. After the second round your SOL, when it comes to QB's.
Congratulation Les and Jeff. You did it!
OK, on to the numbers in descending order. The Odds of Finding a starter in Round 4 is....
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
It would appear that Les Snead has a master plan, as Ram's needs intersect with favorable positional percentages. ( With exception of wide receiver...more on that later)**
We could use an interior defensive lineman, and as you know the 2016 draft is very deep at that position, so I predict the Rams draft a defensive lineman in round 4. Tights Ends look good! Or perhaps, Snead takes a 29% shot at a future starting Center?
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
Again, Tight Ends look good. But the Defensive Line percentage has dropped 24 points! Maybe Snead will package two 6th round picks to move up into the 5th round. Damn! I'll have to look up the 5th round.
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
Did you spot it? The odds of you finding a starting Defensive Back in the 5th round is higher than the 4th round by 6 points! Must be a statistical fluke. Richard Sherman is a 5th round statistical fluke. Fluke or not, that's 10 years worth of data and trends. Did you know that over 20% of all NFL players drafted in the last 10 years were defensive backs?
**Wide Receiver? As you know we need weapons for Jared Goff to do his thang. Yet the odds of the Rams finding a starting WR are dismally low. Hell, the odds of finding a starting WR in the 3rd round are only 25%. So where do we find a starting WR? Free Agency! I predict by April Fools Day 2017 Les Snead will have signed a starting Free Agent wide receiver. Heck, We may sign a FA WR before training camp.
"What are the odds of Les Snead drafting a starter out of rounds 4 and 6?"
Barring a last minute trade. ( I'm looking at you Nick Foles) The Rams got the,
110th and 113th picks in the 4th round
and
the 177th and 190th picks in the 6th round.
Instead of droning on about our needs, I'll cut to the chase and make this short and sweet. The following stats are culled from the last 10 drafts. I'm not mocking the Rams, so I won't mention any names, except for Les Snead and Jeff Fisher.
This isn't about finding a #1 WR or Demonic Edge rusher... The following percentages are the percent chance, odds of finding starters in rounds 4 and 6. How's that for starters? (I promise no more puns)
As I pointed out a month and a half ago, Franchise QB's are most commonly found within the first 4 picks of the first round. After the second round your SOL, when it comes to QB's.
Congratulation Les and Jeff. You did it!
OK, on to the numbers in descending order. The Odds of Finding a starter in Round 4 is....
4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)
It would appear that Les Snead has a master plan, as Ram's needs intersect with favorable positional percentages. ( With exception of wide receiver...more on that later)**
We could use an interior defensive lineman, and as you know the 2016 draft is very deep at that position, so I predict the Rams draft a defensive lineman in round 4. Tights Ends look good! Or perhaps, Snead takes a 29% shot at a future starting Center?
6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)
Again, Tight Ends look good. But the Defensive Line percentage has dropped 24 points! Maybe Snead will package two 6th round picks to move up into the 5th round. Damn! I'll have to look up the 5th round.
5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)
Did you spot it? The odds of you finding a starting Defensive Back in the 5th round is higher than the 4th round by 6 points! Must be a statistical fluke. Richard Sherman is a 5th round statistical fluke. Fluke or not, that's 10 years worth of data and trends. Did you know that over 20% of all NFL players drafted in the last 10 years were defensive backs?
**Wide Receiver? As you know we need weapons for Jared Goff to do his thang. Yet the odds of the Rams finding a starting WR are dismally low. Hell, the odds of finding a starting WR in the 3rd round are only 25%. So where do we find a starting WR? Free Agency! I predict by April Fools Day 2017 Les Snead will have signed a starting Free Agent wide receiver. Heck, We may sign a FA WR before training camp.
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