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http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...lace-derek-carr-marcus-mariota-2015-nfl-draft
Derek Carr was selected 36th overall in 2014 by the Oakland Raiders and earned the starting quarterback job out of training camp. Carr started all 16 games, threw for 3,000 yards and threw nine more touchdowns than interceptions in his rookie year.
According to the most recent mock drafts by Todd McShay and Mel Kiper, the Raiders will be looking to add weapons for Carr with the fourth overall pick at the 2015 NFL draft, specifically at wide receiver with either West Virginia's Kevin White or Alabama's Amari Cooper.
But the projections indicate that Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota also could be available at No. 4 come April 30. Given the option, the Raiders shouldn't look to upgrade the supporting cast for their quarterback -- they should look to upgrade the quarterback.
Sixteen games may seem too small a sample size to evaluate Carr's future, but the evidence suggests Oakland has enough information to determine if he's the future or not.
On the surface Carr's rookie campaign compares favorably to other recent seasons by rookie QBs. He threw fewer interceptions (12) and completed a higher percentage of passes (58.1 percent) than Andrew Luck did (18, 54.1 percent) and he was the ninth rookie since the merger to throw at least 20 touchdown passes (21).
A deeper dive into Carr's numbers suggest his 2014 season left a lot to be desired, however. Carr finished the season with a 38.4 Total QBR, which ranked 28th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks. His QBR didn't rank favorably among other recent rookies, either. Of the 27 rookies to qualify since 2006 -- as far back as Total QBR data goes -- Carr's QBR ranks 15th, sandwiched between EJ Manuel (38.4) and Geno Smith (35.9).
Carr's QBR suffered because of minimal gains made on his passes. He averaged a mere 5.46 yards per attempt last season, which was not only worst in the NFL last season, it was one of the worst all time.
In the history of the NFL, only three quarterbacks have thrown at least 500 passes in a season and averaged fewer than 5.50 yards per attempt: Carr, Joey Harrington and Chris Weinke. Harrington and Weinke both did so within the first two years of their careers, and neither lasted long in the NFL.
Carr's inability to hit the deep ball contributed to his low yards per attempt. Carr completed a league-worst 22.4 percent of his passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield last season, and it's not as though his receivers were to blame. The Raiders lacked big-name receivers in 2013 as well, but the team ranked 12th overall completing deep passes (38.1 percent).
Projecting the future
Was Carr's 2014 season a true showcase of the player he is and will be, or is it too early to tell?
ESPN Insider Mike Sando explored the topic last April and found that quarterbacks generally don't show great improvement in Total QBR beyond their first 16 starts.
There have been 44 quarterbacks to make their first 16 NFL starts since 2006 (not including Carr), and the average difference in QBR from their first 16 starts and their career totals is just 5.1 points.
Quarterbacks who started with a QBR under 40 (as Carr did) have seen even smaller differences (3.9 points on average). The biggest increase was by Mark Sanchez, whose career QBR is 9.8 points better than his first 16 starts (28.9).
A QBR of 50.0 is considered average, so Carr would need an improvement of nearly 12 points over his career to reach that mark. Only Matthew Stafford, who has improved by 13.4 points from his first 16 starts, has reached those levels. Stafford also had the talent level to be drafted No. 1 overall in 2009, and dealt with injuries early in his career.
It's possible Carr can improve upon his first 16 starts, and adding stability to the running game or drafting a top wide receiver would potentially help that endeavor. But regardless of the moves the Raiders could make, it's unlikely he'll improve to the level of an above-average NFL starter.
Best for business
Since their last playoff appearance in 2002 the Raiders have posted the worst winning percentage in the NFL, going 56-136 (.292). The Raiders have started 18 quarterbacks in that span and only Jason Campbell has a winning record (11-7). It's no coincidence, either, that the winningest teams in this time frame (Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Packers, Broncos) all benefited from elite quarterback play.
Since the JaMarcus Russell disaster, the Raiders simply haven't been in a position to draft a top quarterback prospect like Mariota, either by their own doings (trades) or by not bottoming out far enough. The Raiders didn't have a first-round pick in either 2011 or 2012, and picked 12th and fifth the past two years. The Raiders tried acquiring quarterbacks in that stretch, utilizing eight picks from 2012-14 to acquire seven quarterbacks, but that strategy has not helped matters.
It might seem like overkill to add Mariota to that list, but if Carr doesn't improve enough, the Raiders would be right back in this position again, hoping a top prospect is available when they pick.
Mariota carries the potential of a franchise quarterback, something Carr has yet to display at either level. In college Carr logged three full seasons as Fresno State's quarterback and never posted a QBR season higher than 77.0. By comparison, Mariota's worst QBR in three seasons as Oregon's starter was 86.2.
Their performances at the collegiate level could be indicative of their ceilings in the professional ranks. There were 83 college quarterbacks from 2004-14 who logged three or more seasons of sub-80 QBRs. That group saw seven NFL starters last season: Carr, Nick Foles, Geno Smith, Austin Davis, Christian Ponder, Jake Locker and Chad Henne. As of now, Foles and Carr appear to be the only two of that group with a starting job in 2015. Quarterbacks with at least one season of QBR at or above 80 in the past 10 collegiate seasons include Luck, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Alex Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, Robert Griffin III and Sam Bradford.
Adding Mariota wouldn't hurt the Raiders financially either. Carr's contract goes through the 2017 season and doesn't count more than $1.7 million against the cap in any year, which makes him a trade asset (it's not unreasonable to think the Raiders could land a second- and fourth-rounder for Carr, given the need at the QB position for many teams in the league), and at worst a fairly priced backup.
Mariota also may help attract free agents to Oakland. Despite entering this free-agency period with the second-most cap space available, the Raiders have been unable to attract impact players. Center Rodney Hudson and linebacker Curtis Lofton are the only two players the Raiders have signed this offseason who played half their team's snaps last season.
The numbers suggest Carr is unlikely to develop into anything more than an average NFL QB. On draft day the Raiders could find themselves in a position to improve the most important position, and that's an opportunity they shouldn't let pass by.
Derek Carr was selected 36th overall in 2014 by the Oakland Raiders and earned the starting quarterback job out of training camp. Carr started all 16 games, threw for 3,000 yards and threw nine more touchdowns than interceptions in his rookie year.
According to the most recent mock drafts by Todd McShay and Mel Kiper, the Raiders will be looking to add weapons for Carr with the fourth overall pick at the 2015 NFL draft, specifically at wide receiver with either West Virginia's Kevin White or Alabama's Amari Cooper.
But the projections indicate that Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota also could be available at No. 4 come April 30. Given the option, the Raiders shouldn't look to upgrade the supporting cast for their quarterback -- they should look to upgrade the quarterback.
Sixteen games may seem too small a sample size to evaluate Carr's future, but the evidence suggests Oakland has enough information to determine if he's the future or not.
On the surface Carr's rookie campaign compares favorably to other recent seasons by rookie QBs. He threw fewer interceptions (12) and completed a higher percentage of passes (58.1 percent) than Andrew Luck did (18, 54.1 percent) and he was the ninth rookie since the merger to throw at least 20 touchdown passes (21).
A deeper dive into Carr's numbers suggest his 2014 season left a lot to be desired, however. Carr finished the season with a 38.4 Total QBR, which ranked 28th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks. His QBR didn't rank favorably among other recent rookies, either. Of the 27 rookies to qualify since 2006 -- as far back as Total QBR data goes -- Carr's QBR ranks 15th, sandwiched between EJ Manuel (38.4) and Geno Smith (35.9).
Carr's QBR suffered because of minimal gains made on his passes. He averaged a mere 5.46 yards per attempt last season, which was not only worst in the NFL last season, it was one of the worst all time.
In the history of the NFL, only three quarterbacks have thrown at least 500 passes in a season and averaged fewer than 5.50 yards per attempt: Carr, Joey Harrington and Chris Weinke. Harrington and Weinke both did so within the first two years of their careers, and neither lasted long in the NFL.
Carr's inability to hit the deep ball contributed to his low yards per attempt. Carr completed a league-worst 22.4 percent of his passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield last season, and it's not as though his receivers were to blame. The Raiders lacked big-name receivers in 2013 as well, but the team ranked 12th overall completing deep passes (38.1 percent).
Projecting the future
Was Carr's 2014 season a true showcase of the player he is and will be, or is it too early to tell?
ESPN Insider Mike Sando explored the topic last April and found that quarterbacks generally don't show great improvement in Total QBR beyond their first 16 starts.
There have been 44 quarterbacks to make their first 16 NFL starts since 2006 (not including Carr), and the average difference in QBR from their first 16 starts and their career totals is just 5.1 points.
Quarterbacks who started with a QBR under 40 (as Carr did) have seen even smaller differences (3.9 points on average). The biggest increase was by Mark Sanchez, whose career QBR is 9.8 points better than his first 16 starts (28.9).
A QBR of 50.0 is considered average, so Carr would need an improvement of nearly 12 points over his career to reach that mark. Only Matthew Stafford, who has improved by 13.4 points from his first 16 starts, has reached those levels. Stafford also had the talent level to be drafted No. 1 overall in 2009, and dealt with injuries early in his career.
It's possible Carr can improve upon his first 16 starts, and adding stability to the running game or drafting a top wide receiver would potentially help that endeavor. But regardless of the moves the Raiders could make, it's unlikely he'll improve to the level of an above-average NFL starter.
Best for business
Since their last playoff appearance in 2002 the Raiders have posted the worst winning percentage in the NFL, going 56-136 (.292). The Raiders have started 18 quarterbacks in that span and only Jason Campbell has a winning record (11-7). It's no coincidence, either, that the winningest teams in this time frame (Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Packers, Broncos) all benefited from elite quarterback play.
Since the JaMarcus Russell disaster, the Raiders simply haven't been in a position to draft a top quarterback prospect like Mariota, either by their own doings (trades) or by not bottoming out far enough. The Raiders didn't have a first-round pick in either 2011 or 2012, and picked 12th and fifth the past two years. The Raiders tried acquiring quarterbacks in that stretch, utilizing eight picks from 2012-14 to acquire seven quarterbacks, but that strategy has not helped matters.
It might seem like overkill to add Mariota to that list, but if Carr doesn't improve enough, the Raiders would be right back in this position again, hoping a top prospect is available when they pick.
Mariota carries the potential of a franchise quarterback, something Carr has yet to display at either level. In college Carr logged three full seasons as Fresno State's quarterback and never posted a QBR season higher than 77.0. By comparison, Mariota's worst QBR in three seasons as Oregon's starter was 86.2.
Their performances at the collegiate level could be indicative of their ceilings in the professional ranks. There were 83 college quarterbacks from 2004-14 who logged three or more seasons of sub-80 QBRs. That group saw seven NFL starters last season: Carr, Nick Foles, Geno Smith, Austin Davis, Christian Ponder, Jake Locker and Chad Henne. As of now, Foles and Carr appear to be the only two of that group with a starting job in 2015. Quarterbacks with at least one season of QBR at or above 80 in the past 10 collegiate seasons include Luck, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Alex Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, Robert Griffin III and Sam Bradford.
Adding Mariota wouldn't hurt the Raiders financially either. Carr's contract goes through the 2017 season and doesn't count more than $1.7 million against the cap in any year, which makes him a trade asset (it's not unreasonable to think the Raiders could land a second- and fourth-rounder for Carr, given the need at the QB position for many teams in the league), and at worst a fairly priced backup.
Mariota also may help attract free agents to Oakland. Despite entering this free-agency period with the second-most cap space available, the Raiders have been unable to attract impact players. Center Rodney Hudson and linebacker Curtis Lofton are the only two players the Raiders have signed this offseason who played half their team's snaps last season.
The numbers suggest Carr is unlikely to develop into anything more than an average NFL QB. On draft day the Raiders could find themselves in a position to improve the most important position, and that's an opportunity they shouldn't let pass by.
