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http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/stor...non-playoff-teams-primed-bounce-back-2016-nfl
The Detroit Lions no longer look like a lost cause after quarterback Matthew Stafford tossed 19 touchdown passes with two interceptions during a 6-2 finish to the season. The organization could still misplay its hand -- history has conditioned Lions fans to expect it -- but as the situation stands now, the Lions look like one of the 2015 non-playoff teams set up best for next season.
The Lions made my short list, but they weren't No. 1. That distinction went to one of the teams welcoming back a Pro Bowl QB.
One quick note before we dive in: Much will change in the coming months as teams tweak their coaching staffs, venture into free agency and add players through the draft. This initial look focuses on non-playoff teams that should have the best shot at improving, with special consideration for the ones that finished below .500.
1. Dallas Cowboys (4-12)
The Cowboys will instantly become a playoff contender once Tony Romo returns to health. That makes them an obvious choice for this list.
Dallas' failure to win even when its backup quarterbacks played decently became a source of great frustration this past season, but the payoff is coming when the Cowboys select fourth overall in the 2016 draft. Dallas has turned its five most recent first-round choices into four high-end players: Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin. Adding another impact player before welcoming back Romo should be enough for the Cowboys to make a big jump in the standings.
2. Baltimore Ravens (5-11)
The Ravens lost nine games by one score, tied with San Diego for most in the league. Playing so many teams close was admirable for a Baltimore team short-handed for much of the season without its starting quarterback, top running back, No. 1 wide receiver and best pass-rusher. Getting Joe Flacco and other injured players back will help Baltimore bounce back in 2016.
The sixth overall choice in the draft is the highest selection Baltimore has held since 2000, when the team grabbed running back Jamal Lewis fifth overall. Haloti Ngata (2006), Terrell Suggs (2003), Chris McAlister (1999), Peter Boulware (1997) and Jonathan Ogden (1996) were other notable top-15 picks for the Ravens since Ozzie Newsome became general manager.
Other well-run organizations accustomed to picking later in the order have also parlayed the occasional early draft choice into franchise-altering players. New England did it with Richard Seymour in 2001. Pittsburgh did it with Troy Polamalu in 2003.
3. Detroit Lions (7-9)
This remains a potentially volatile situation while the Lions search for a general manager, evaluate the coaching staff and wait to see whether defensive coordinator Teryl Austin lands a head-coaching job elsewhere. But with Stafford's production spiking almost immediately after Jim Bob Cooter became offensive coordinator, the Lions might finally have a good thing going at the most important position.
Quarterbacks, pass-rushers and cornerbacks are typically the most important building blocks for success. Stafford improved late in the season. Ezekiel Ansahis a top-five talent at defensive end. Darius Slay ranked second among corners in Pro Football Focus grading this season, while rookie Quandre Diggs emerged as a promising nickel corner.
4. Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
Andrew Luck's return to health following a lost 2015 season puts the Colts in prime position for improvement, although perhaps not so much in the win column after Indy scrambled to 8-8. Upgrading the offensive line should be the first, second and third priority.
5. Oakland Raiders (7-9)
Derek Carr had 19 touchdown passes, four interceptions, eight sacks, a 104.3 passer rating and a 66.6 Total QBR through eight games. He was a young quarterback on the rise. Carr regressed a bit down the stretch (see chart below), which prevented the Raiders from making a run in the wild-card race, but the qualities that made Carr so popular in our 2015 Quarterback Tier Rankingsshould help him rebound next season.
The assumption here is that Oakland will use the draft and free agency to upgrade its defense, taking pressure off Carr in the quarterback's third season.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)
This is a young team with a precocious and talented quarterback, not a bad combination. Led by Jameis Winston, the Buccaneers finished the regular season with a league-leading 4,499 offensive and defensive snaps from rookies (Chicago was a distant second at 3,300). They improved 14 spots from 2014 to 15th in offensive expected points added. That was one spot higher than Green Bay ranked, which would have seemed unfathomable at midseason.
Winston's ability to reduce his interception rate from 3.3 percent at Florida State to 2.8 percent as a rookie brought him closer in line with the 2.4 percent league average, which gave the Buccaneers a chance to be competitive.
Tampa Bay needs to find a pass-rusher to take the next step. The Buccaneers whiffed on Michael Johnson in free agency two years ago. They understandably used the first pick of the 2015 draft for Winston instead of pass-rusher Dante Fowler Jr. If they can find an effective outside rusher with the ninth pick in this year's draft or through other means, they'll be a giant step closer to having the personnel needed to run coach Lovie Smith's scheme.
Honorable mention
The Detroit Lions no longer look like a lost cause after quarterback Matthew Stafford tossed 19 touchdown passes with two interceptions during a 6-2 finish to the season. The organization could still misplay its hand -- history has conditioned Lions fans to expect it -- but as the situation stands now, the Lions look like one of the 2015 non-playoff teams set up best for next season.
The Lions made my short list, but they weren't No. 1. That distinction went to one of the teams welcoming back a Pro Bowl QB.
One quick note before we dive in: Much will change in the coming months as teams tweak their coaching staffs, venture into free agency and add players through the draft. This initial look focuses on non-playoff teams that should have the best shot at improving, with special consideration for the ones that finished below .500.
1. Dallas Cowboys (4-12)
The Cowboys will instantly become a playoff contender once Tony Romo returns to health. That makes them an obvious choice for this list.
Dallas' failure to win even when its backup quarterbacks played decently became a source of great frustration this past season, but the payoff is coming when the Cowboys select fourth overall in the 2016 draft. Dallas has turned its five most recent first-round choices into four high-end players: Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick and Zack Martin. Adding another impact player before welcoming back Romo should be enough for the Cowboys to make a big jump in the standings.
2. Baltimore Ravens (5-11)
The Ravens lost nine games by one score, tied with San Diego for most in the league. Playing so many teams close was admirable for a Baltimore team short-handed for much of the season without its starting quarterback, top running back, No. 1 wide receiver and best pass-rusher. Getting Joe Flacco and other injured players back will help Baltimore bounce back in 2016.
The sixth overall choice in the draft is the highest selection Baltimore has held since 2000, when the team grabbed running back Jamal Lewis fifth overall. Haloti Ngata (2006), Terrell Suggs (2003), Chris McAlister (1999), Peter Boulware (1997) and Jonathan Ogden (1996) were other notable top-15 picks for the Ravens since Ozzie Newsome became general manager.
Other well-run organizations accustomed to picking later in the order have also parlayed the occasional early draft choice into franchise-altering players. New England did it with Richard Seymour in 2001. Pittsburgh did it with Troy Polamalu in 2003.
3. Detroit Lions (7-9)
This remains a potentially volatile situation while the Lions search for a general manager, evaluate the coaching staff and wait to see whether defensive coordinator Teryl Austin lands a head-coaching job elsewhere. But with Stafford's production spiking almost immediately after Jim Bob Cooter became offensive coordinator, the Lions might finally have a good thing going at the most important position.
Quarterbacks, pass-rushers and cornerbacks are typically the most important building blocks for success. Stafford improved late in the season. Ezekiel Ansahis a top-five talent at defensive end. Darius Slay ranked second among corners in Pro Football Focus grading this season, while rookie Quandre Diggs emerged as a promising nickel corner.
4. Indianapolis Colts (8-8)
Andrew Luck's return to health following a lost 2015 season puts the Colts in prime position for improvement, although perhaps not so much in the win column after Indy scrambled to 8-8. Upgrading the offensive line should be the first, second and third priority.
5. Oakland Raiders (7-9)
Derek Carr had 19 touchdown passes, four interceptions, eight sacks, a 104.3 passer rating and a 66.6 Total QBR through eight games. He was a young quarterback on the rise. Carr regressed a bit down the stretch (see chart below), which prevented the Raiders from making a run in the wild-card race, but the qualities that made Carr so popular in our 2015 Quarterback Tier Rankingsshould help him rebound next season.
The assumption here is that Oakland will use the draft and free agency to upgrade its defense, taking pressure off Carr in the quarterback's third season.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)
This is a young team with a precocious and talented quarterback, not a bad combination. Led by Jameis Winston, the Buccaneers finished the regular season with a league-leading 4,499 offensive and defensive snaps from rookies (Chicago was a distant second at 3,300). They improved 14 spots from 2014 to 15th in offensive expected points added. That was one spot higher than Green Bay ranked, which would have seemed unfathomable at midseason.
Winston's ability to reduce his interception rate from 3.3 percent at Florida State to 2.8 percent as a rookie brought him closer in line with the 2.4 percent league average, which gave the Buccaneers a chance to be competitive.
Tampa Bay needs to find a pass-rusher to take the next step. The Buccaneers whiffed on Michael Johnson in free agency two years ago. They understandably used the first pick of the 2015 draft for Winston instead of pass-rusher Dante Fowler Jr. If they can find an effective outside rusher with the ninth pick in this year's draft or through other means, they'll be a giant step closer to having the personnel needed to run coach Lovie Smith's scheme.
Honorable mention
- The St. Louis Rams are where Seattle was before the Seahawks landed Russell Wilson. I'm just not sure they'll find the quarterback upgrade they need, which is why it's tough to bank on them improving significantly from 7-9.
- Tennessee should improve almost by default, but with the front office and coaching staff unsettled, too many question marks persist.
- San Diego fired multiple assistant coaches, but personnel deficiencies seem to be the primary problem for the Chargers. Is it really as simple as getting healthy?
- Jacksonville resembles the Buccaneers. Both teams went 1-5 over their final six games. Both badly need pass rushing help. Both have committed to younger players. Both have been willing to spend in free agency, without much impact in the win column. The Jaguars must dedicate this offseason to fixing their defense. Getting Fowler and Sen'Derrick Marks back from injuries should help.
