No WR has ever won league MVP...until 2022, that is

[ROD-BOT]

No WR has ever won league MVP...until 2022, that is

New head coach + a weakened Packers’ squad = Big money potential for Justin Jefferson

deadspin.com

No WR has ever won league MVP...until 2022, that is​

The NFL’s MVP Award has been around since 1957. In that time, fullbacks have won the award four times. Two defensive players have been given the honor, and even a kicker has taken home the hardware. Zero pass catchers have won the award though, and for the most part, none have gotten particularly close.

Cooper Kupp put up one of the greatest receiving seasons of all-time in 2021 and only mustered one vote. Jerry Rice finished second in voting in 1995, but still fell 59 votes short of Brett Favre. He received 15 votes in 1993, and finished third in voting, behind his quarterback Steve Young as well as Emmitt Smith. The closest Rice got though was in 1987 when he recorded 22 touchdowns in just 12 games. Still, Rice finished six votes shy of John Elway.

The disrespect to pass-catchers has been immeasurable, but in 2022, Vikings’ third-year receiver Justin Jefferson has a chance to end the discrimination once and for all, and I think he’s got a pretty decent shot.

As of right now, according to OddsChecker spokesperson Kyle Newman, Jefferson is being given +15000 odds to win the MVP this year. That ties him with superstars Jared Goff and Sam Darnold, as well as some other notable non-QBs like Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, and Christian McCaffrey. However, those odds still seem extremely low given the circumstances Jefferson finds himself in.

The Vikings did away with Mike Zimmer during the offseason, and replaced him with former Rams’ offensive coordinator Kevin O’Connell, the same Kevin O’Connell who orchestrated Kupp’s massive 2021 breakout season. However, Jefferson is arguably a better fit for O’Connell’s offense than Kupp was. Both receivers do a lot of work from the slot. Jefferson lined up in the slot on nearly 20 percent of his snaps in 2021. That’s a ways off from Kupp’s usage last year (52.4 percent), but if O’Connell wants his offense to look anything like the Rams’ did in 2021, we can expect a significant uptick in Jefferson’s slot percentage next season. Second, Jefferson would only need to see a four percent increase in target share to match Kupp’s mark from last season. That’s not an unthinkable figure.

Furthermore, where Kupp had to compete for targets with guys like Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr. last season, the main competitor for Jefferson in 2022 will be 32-year-old Adam Thielen. Thielen is coming off one of the least productive seasons of his career (in terms of yardage), and his touchdown rate (10 TDs on 67 receptions) is unsustainable. Those touchdown passes have to go somewhere, and even with the return of Irv Smith Jr., Jefferson is far and away the most reliable option for Cousins, just as Kupp was the most reliable option for Stafford.

Now, you might be thinking: “Sure, but Stafford is a much better quarterback than Cousins.” Correct. Kupp also didn’t have to face Jaire Alexander twice last year. I’m not expecting Jefferson to take as massive a leap as Kupp did. Kupp recorded career-bests in every major receiving category. He increased his reception total by 54 percent (94 to 125). He bettered his career-best yardage total by 67.7 percent (1161 to 1947). He increased his touchdowns by 60 percent (10 to 16). I’m not expecting that monumental a leap in every category, but if I’m being generous and divide each of those percentages in half, that would still give Jefferson a line of 137 receptions, 2244 yards, and 13 touchdowns. I don’t care how stubborn a voter you are, breaking the all-time receiving yards record by nearly 250 yards is going to get you some MVP hype. The receptions and touchdowns could be better, but like I said, I was being generous with those percentages. If O’Connell decides to use Jefferson anything like how he used Kupp last season, those numbers could be much greater.

Lastly, the MVP award voters often give an edge to playoff teams. If you’re that good, why can’t your team make it to the playoffs? I’m not saying the Vikings are a guaranteed playoff team, but their division is one of the weakest in football with both the Lions and Bears projected to be near the top of the draft next April. Plus, the Packers lost Davante Adams. We don’t know how that offense is going to look. All that amounts to the Vikings probably doing better than they did last year when they missed the playoffs by two games. The Cardinals will probably be worse. The Cowboys will probably be worse. The 49ers are a question mark until we see Trey Lance do well. There are several reasons to believe the Vikings will reach the postseason. Will they go 16-1 like Colin Cowherd predicted? No.


View: https://twitter.com/therealforno/status/1535351490092711937?s=21&t=j-nRXAuh-qigOYZa3n41ig


But there’s no reason to think the Vikings can’t go 11-6 or 12-5 and secure the NFC’s second or third seed.

Obviously, the MVP is a quarterback’s award to lose. Brady, Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, and Rodgers (even without Adams) are all the clear-cut favorites to win the award. While you might think that a monumental rise from Jefferson would only give voters more of a reason to vote for Cousins, keep in mind that Stafford didn’t get any votes last season. Kupp did though.

At +15000 odds, Jefferson might be one of the sneakiest MVP picks this year. Those odds are insane, especially when you consider that Cousins is being listed at +4000. It would take a massive push, but if any receiver can finally break the curse, it’s going to be Jefferson.

 

[kurtfaulk]

.

Derrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrp!

.

 

[BuffaloRam]

Justin Jefferson is going to have a great season - though doubt! But give some love to my man Old Fashioned.

 

[Tano]

One thing people forget about Kupp is that every year until last year and I think his Rookie year, Kupp missed quite a few games and could have had much better stats those years too

 

[Merlin]

The fact that Kupp didn't win it last year shows how broken it is. Just rename it MVQ and be done with it.

So fucking tired of QBs having everything. Maybe they can at least get the postseason awards right.

 

[Allen2McVay]

View: https://twitter.com/therealforno/status/1535351490092711937?s=21&t=j-nRXAuh-qigOYZa3n41ig

Just another example of why I don't understand why anyone pays attention to Colin Cowherd.

He doesn't even pay attention to himself!

Of course mistakes are made. Correct them! He has a producer and support people in his ear.

Producer: 'Hey Colin, the Vikings had 8 wins last year. You don't expect them to win 16 games ... Do you?!?'

Colin's reply: 'Don't worry. Half these idiots are not listening. The other half will forget about it in seconds.'

 

[RamDino]

The fact that Kupp didn't win it last year shows how broken it is. Just rename it MVQ and be done with it.

Agreed. Or just get rid of the award altogether. Aaron Donald has been the best football player on the planet for 7 years now. Where is his award? In fact, they should change the name of the award to "Best Football Player" (BFP) instead of most "valuable". We all know QB's are more valuable than any other position, so the award itself is biased.

 

[Tano]

Agreed. Or just get rid of the award altogether. Aaron Donald has been the best football player on the planet for 7 years now. Where is his award? In fact, they should change the name of the award to "Best Football Player" (BFP) instead of most "valuable". We all know QB's are more valuable than any other position, so the award itself is biased.

I agree with @Merlin about it being called MVQ and there should be also a BFP award as well

So have both of them along with Best Offensive Player and Best Defensive Player

Of course, whoever wins BFP will win either the BOP or BDP award

Unless it is a Punter or Placekicker

 

[RamDino]

I agree with @Merlin about it being called MVQ and there should be also a BFP award as well

So have both of them along with Best Offensive Player and Best Defensive Player

Of course, whoever wins BFP will win either the BOP or BDP award

Both of you guys are correct. I forgot about the Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year awards. So the MVP should be changed to MVQ, and the OPOY and DPOY are fine. Sorry about that (in my best Maxwell Smart impersonation).

 

[snackdaddy]

The fact that Kupp didn't win it last year shows how broken it is. Just rename it MVQ and be done with it.

So fucking tired of QBs having everything. Maybe they can at least get the postseason awards right.

MLB has a separate award for pitchers. NFL should have one for quarterbacks. We know its the most important position on the field. But where would the QB MVP's be without their supporting cast?

 

[AZRams]

Agreed. Or just get rid of the award altogether. Aaron Donald has been the best football player on the planet for 7 years now. Where is his award? In fact, they should change the name of the award to "Best Football Player" (BFP) instead of most "valuable". We all know QB's are more valuable than any other position, so the award itself is biased.

 

[Merlin]

Agreed. Or just get rid of the award altogether. Aaron Donald has been the best football player on the planet for 7 years now. Where is his award? In fact, they should change the name of the award to "Best Football Player" (BFP) instead of most "valuable". We all know QB's are more valuable than any other position, so the award itself is biased.

Yeah or just leave MVP as it is but QBs go into a new category. Fuck 'em.

 

[Flint]

I think I got whiplash trying to follow that logic. First off O’Connell was responsible for Kupp’s monster season, most of us probably thought it was Stafford, glad we straightened that out. Next, why do we assume Jefferson will be a better fit? This is O’Connell’s first gig, who knows what he’s really about? Sounds like this guy is underestimating Kupp. Jefferson is a stud, no doubt, but can we stop doubting Kupp? He’s faster than you think, he’s quicker than you think, he’s harder to tackle than you think. The premise that O’Connell created Kupp is flawed I think, reading that SI article on him it seemed pretty clear that he himself broke down the science of wide receiver and became a frickin genius at it. That might be the part that’s missing, Jefferson is certainly every bit as talented as Kupp but Kupp turned himself into the best wr in football because he’s crazy and obsessed, and having one of the best coaches in the game and one of the best qbs don’t hurt either.
O’Connell coached on a staff that won it all therefore his offense will certainly be as effective as McVay’s and Jefferson will do what Kupp did only better cuz he won’t have to compete for balls like Kupp. Don’t know if a Viking fan could even go along with some of that. Here’s my own outrageous predictions; Kupp will be just as good maybe better this year. Not having to teach the offense to Odell and some rookies will let him focus on his job. Odell made some mistakes last year but it was probably tough to learn on the fly, this year the rooks should be better, Robinson will go through the whole offseason program and rb1 will be 100%. Focusing on Kupp will be problematic. I doubt Kupp will get the targets to lead the league in everything but people will wonder how someone with the stats he put up can continue to get wide open.

 

[Merlin]

I'm hoping Coen is a better OC than KoC was. KoC deserves a ton of cred but I don't look at him as some amazing OC who got away. He got the job done which is what's important but hopefully Coen will get the job done too and score the most points through the season doing it. I know I'm a spoiled dickhead fan now but why not have a dominant Super Bowl win this year where they fucking dismantle teams.

Anyway Coen seems like a smart dude with some good comm skills to him. Very hopeful with this hire that the offense is about to explode. There's reasons to expect that across the board this year, from the talent on the field to the staff itself, with Olson returning too. Rams should be crushing gameplans this year.