NFL's most overrated teams for 2016: Take the under in wins

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rdlkgliders

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Sporting News
Vinnie Iyer10 hrs ago

Here are the 11 teams whose win total has been most greatly exaggerated.

1. 49ers

Win total over/under: 5.5

The 49ers finished 5-11 last season, in last place in the NFC West. It's hard to believe they'll be a half-win better in a division that remains tough at the top while facing the league's hardest schedule. There's a lot they need to figure out fast for Chip Kelly, including finding a starting quarterback. Going to full rebuild mode, four wins looks like the absolute ceiling.

MORE: Gabbert is solution to 49ers' Kaepernick problems

2. Eagles

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© Provided by Sporting News Win total over/under: 7

Here's the flip side of the Chip Kelly effect. Although the Eagles have plenty of pieces that can help ease the transition to Doug Pederson and Jim Schwartz, they will drop hard from 7-9 and second place in the NFC East. The rest of the division still looks in better shape with the running game and defense, and Philadelphia fell farther behind at quarterback. Even getting up to five wins would be surprising.

MORE: Breaking down Eagles position-by-position

3. Lions

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© Provided by Sporting News Win total over/under: 7

Here'a another team set exactly where it finished last season. That's crazy, because the Lions' most important offensive player (Calvin Johnson) retired and they still haven't replaced their former most important defensive player (Ndamukong Suh). The Packers and Vikings will strengthen their positions at the top of the NFC North. Chicago, only one game behind Detroit, did more to improve in the short term and has the easier schedule. The Leos will be last, with five or fewer wins.

MORE: Teryl Austin says coaching auditions part-sham

4. Browns

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© Provided by Sporting News Win total over/under: 4.5

Vegas has the Browns jumping up from 3-13, despite the fact they decided to go into bigger slash and burn mode with Hue Jackson and Sashi Brown. There will be even less chance to pick up any AFC North wins with a healthy Ravens team right there with the Steelers and Bengals challenging for first place. Drawing both the AFC East and NFC East on the schedule also is brutal. The Browns are much more likely to go two wins backward.

MORE: NFL's second-year breakout players

5. Titans

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© Provided by Sporting News Win total over/under: 5.5

There's a lot of buzz about what Marcus Mariota can do in Year 2, especially with Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray joining him in the backfield. But everyone needs to keep slowing the roll in Nashville. A three-win jump from 3-13 seems tricky when you consider the Texans made some huge moves, the Colts get Andrew Luck back and the Jaguars are the much better bet to shoot up. Even with the offensive excitement, plenty of defensive holes remain. The Titans also have plenty of traps outside of the division in the AFC West and NFC North. Sell on Tennessee.

MORE: NFL teams with best chance to go from worst to first

6. Buccaneers

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© Provided by Sporting News Win total over/under: 7.5

The Buccaneers jumped from 2-14 to 6-10 with Jameis Winston, but that also was with Lovie Smith. They're trying to keep up the offensive mojo for Winston with Dirk Koetter, but their defense, although talented in many years, is undergoing another transition to Mike Smith. Their strength of schedule is fifth-toughest. Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans all remain better. It's also a bad sign they finished 2015 on a four-game losing streak. It would be surprising if they stayed static as high as six.

MORE: Way-too-early 2017 NFL Mock Draft

7. Rams

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© Provided by Sporting News Win total over/under: 7.5

The Rams' move to Los Angeles comes with a half-win bump. It's hard to trust a team to get to .500 after it has struggled so much to do so with Jeff Fisher, even with a top defense. Now they are undergoing more QB change with rookie Jared Goff and adjusting to new digs in the same old brutal NFC West. Only the Falcons and 49ers have more difficult overall schedules. It's safer to think the Rams will slide to five or six wins.

MORE: Rams going big, but now must win big in a hurry

8. Dolphins

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© Provided by Sporting News Win total over/under: 7

There must be high expectations for the start of the Adam Gase era. Miami was 6-10 last season with one of the league's most talented rosters, so there comes the strange hope it can slide up to one more win. As Gase works on Ryan Tannehill and Vance Joseph reboots the defense, there will be growing pains, especially coming off a meh offseason of personnel upgrades. They are more likely to stay right there in the AFC East basement.

MORE: OTAs and minicamp schedule for every team

9. Jets

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© Provided by Sporting News Win total over/under: 8

Vegas was right to drop the Jets from 10-6, but it's probably not enough. Their schedule is even tougher than seventh overall in the NFL because it's front-loaded with a lot of land mines. They also have installed a big cloud over their offense by leaving Ryan Fitzpatrick hanging this late into the offseason. They were subpar early last season before streaking in November thanks to favorable opponents and narrow escapes. That should even out to more like 6-10 in '16.

MORE: Inside the minds of the Jets, Fitzpatrick

10. Chargers

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© Provided by Sporting News Win total over/under: 7

There must be something in those powder-blue throwbacks to make Vegas believe San Diego will be three games better than last season. Denver and Kansas City will remain two nasty teams atop the AFC West, and now Oakland is in position to make them sweat as a potential playoff team, too. As for the Chargers, they had some nice additions (Joey Bosa, Travis Benjamin, Casey Hayward), but their offense isn't as good as it looks and their defense is still trying to put pieces together.

MORE: NFL second-year breakouts on offense

11. Colts

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© Provided by Sporting News Win total over/under: 9.5

Does Andrew Luck make the difference of two wins? Sure, they have their franchise QB back and it should help every aspect of their offense, but overall it's been a quiet offseason where the the key losses have outweighed the additions. Indy is a whole new brand of enigmatic in Chuck Pagano's second chance, making the team bust or boom in the standings.

MORE: Why should Andrew Luck re-sign with the Colts?
 

Mojo Ram

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Lol 6 wins. That's just stupid. I'll repeat myself. This team will win at least 6 games just by showing up. The roster is better than ever, especially at QB which has been the #1 culprit at keeping the Rams at around .500 for the last couple years. The divisional competition is also trending down a bit from where it was 2 years ago IMO. It's evened out a bit.
My only concern is Fisher hopefully...finally.... pulls his coaching head out of his ass for the non-divisional games.

Rams win more than 6 games this season. Guaranteed.
2016/'17 offseason Avatar bet. Any takers?
 

Roman Snow

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Lol 6 wins. That's just stupid. I'll repeat myself. This team will win at least 6 games just by showing up. The roster is better than ever, especially at QB which has been the #1 culprit at keeping the Rams at around .500 for the last couple years. The divisional competition is also trending down a bit from where it was 2 years ago IMO. It's evened out a bit.
My only concern is Fisher hopefully...finally.... pulls his coaching head out of his ass for the non-divisional games.

Rams win more than 6 games this season. Guaranteed.
2016/'17 offseason Avatar bet. Any takers?
No bet, Mojo. Do I look like a sucker?.....crickets.....nevermind! I stick with 11-5.
 

RaminExile

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We have to avoid those games (two or three a year under Fisher) where the Rams are favored and just don't appear to have turned up mentally. Defence can't stop the run and can't get anything going, then come strong in fourth quarter only to miss a game winning field goal as time expires. Cut those anomolies out and we're golden!
 

LesBaker

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Because the Rams mov ed they get a half game bump?

So if I move do I get a raise? Nicer car? 2 girlfriends instead of one?
 

LesBaker

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Because the Rams mov ed they get a half game bump?

So if I move do I get a raise? Nicer car? 2 girlfriends instead of one?
 

rdw

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I don't get it.
Is it a psychological thing? Is it human nature to think that because this team picked at the top of the draft they are one of the worst teams in the league?
Mind boggling.
 

Elmgrovegnome

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The Rams have been bad for so long that these writers aren't familiar with the roster and don't care to be. If a team doesn't make the playoffs they are not worth the effort. The Rams haven't even had a glimmer to get other fans to take notice.

Winning changes everything.
 

rdlkgliders

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  • Thread Starter Thread Starter
  • #8
As long as we win the games where we are the better team, string together back to back wins (something we haven't been good at) and most of all we need the winning mindset. The mental part of the game and belief has been inconsistent. If we do these things we should be in the playoff hunt.
 

snackdaddy

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Sometimes I wonder if these people are too busy to do any actual research. The line has been bad for so long so the assumption is they're still bad. In actuality, they were best in the league in sacks allowed and middle of the pack in hits and pressures. That alone says they weren't terrible. And they were so young its not unreasonable to expect them to get even better.

They think the losses of JL and Long are going to hurt the defense. All they know is reputation. JL always had more name than game. I heard one pundit call Laurinitis a monster MLB. That alone should ruin his credibility.

This team was a quarterback away from being a winning team the past couple years. They have their quarterback now. He might be a rookie but most agree its still an upgrade over what we had.

All in all, I think these guys are only going by past seasons and reputations. Too much work to do actual research. Some guys they lost were known names. I don't think its a stretch to think overall the defense and offensive line will be better this year.