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Across sports, NFL teams are most reluctant to take advantage of analytics
By Kevin Seifert, ESPN.com | February 23, 2015
http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings
ALL-IN
None
BELIEVERS
Atlanta
Falcons
Don't mistake the Falcons' game-management problems in recent years for a disdain of analytics. General manager Thomas Dimitroff is a strong proponent of analytics in every form, saying, "We use analytics to eliminate as much guesswork as we possibly can."
Dimitroff employs analytics for draft evaluation, trade and talent assessments (including the controversial deal that brought them Julio Jones), game strategy and more. The Falcons have been implementing new technologies to monitor and improve player health for years, including measurements of exertion in practice and development of a sleep management program.
Former coach Mike Smith's well-documented strategic mistakes cost the Falcons a playoff spot and Smith his job. The Falcons had worked hard to move Smith into a more analytical way of thinking, but he did not make the transition successfully.
With Dimitroff's status in Atlanta considered somewhat shaky as well, the future of the Falcons' analytics program is in doubt. But for now, they are one of the more engaged teams in the NFL, and new coach Dan Quinn is expected to participate in the Falcons' innovative approach.
Baltimore
Ravens
The Ravens are among the NFL's leaders in analytics, employing two analysts with topflight credentials and training in the business world, academia and applied statistics. What's more, the analytics staff gets significant support and buy-in from the front office and coaching staff.
Sandy Weil, a Yale and Carnegie Mellon graduate with Wall Street experience, has been the team's director of analytics since 2012. Eugene Shen, a Harvard and MIT grad with years of experience in applying advanced metrics to the financial markets, works directly with the coaching staff.
On the personnel side, their research produces unconventional wisdom, a strong suit of the Ravens' front office in general. That has included the aggressive acquisition of compensatory picks -- a category in which Baltimore has led the NFL over a number of years.
Their work is even more visible via coach John Harbaugh's game-management decisions. When Harbaugh went for it on fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line last season, his explanation was music to an analytics booster's ears.
"Part of that strategy," Harbaugh said, "is you have them backed up, so worst-case scenario if you have some confidence in your defense, you're going to get the ball back with a real good chance to recoup that field goal, and that's what we did. So it doesn't matter if you kick it from the 9-yard line or the 39-yard line -- it's still three points. We didn't come out of that any worse for the wear. We didn't lose any points on that. We would've rather had the four points for the touchdown, absolutely. That's why I went for it."
Cleveland
Browns
Team president Alec Scheiner arrived in 2012 from Dallas, where as senior vice president/general counsel he had helped conceive and implement the Cowboys' analytics system. Scheiner brought analytics chief Ken Kovash with him to Cleveland, and Kovash provides assistance to both the personnel side and the coaching staff.
Former Browns CEO Joe Banner was also a strong proponent of analytics. ESPN reported that under his leadership the team spent $100,000 on an independent study of the 2014 quarterback class based on advanced stats. The study revealed that Teddy Bridgewater was the top prospect for the year. But Banner's ouster in early 2014 changed the team's front-office dynamic, and as is well known, the Browns drafted Johnny Manziel.
New general manager Ray Farmer, while not a true believer in analytics, refers to himself as "a nerd by trait" and a "stats guy." Likewise, coach Mike Pettine is said to be open to alternative ideas. It remains to be seen exactly how much Farmer's leadership resembles Banner's in terms of analytics usage, but overall the Browns are one of the NFL's more committed teams.
Dallas
Cowboys
The Cowboys have a long and storied history with analytics. Dallas legends Tex Schramm, Gil Brandt and Tom Landry were among the most systematic thinkers of their era. And in the early 1960s, as a recent FiveThirtyEight film portrayed, Indian immigrant A. Salam Qureishi began integrating numbers and data into the Cowboys' draft process.
The Cowboys' latest incarnation of analytics started with former team executive Alec Scheiner, now the Cleveland Browns' president. Since Scheiner's departure in 2012, the Cowboys have transitioned director of football research Thomas Robinson into the role vacated by Ken Kovash, who joined Scheiner in Cleveland.
While some question how committed owner/GM Jerry Jones is to the use of analytics, the Cowboys otherwise have a good reputation for being willing to spend and innovate. They develop their own advanced stats and are avid consumers of data produced by technology and independent analysts.
Dallas set an organizational goal to improve coach Jason Garrett's game-management decisions with the help of analytics and saw some results during its 2014 NFC East title season.
Jacksonville
Jaguars
The Jaguars have a powerful analytics advocate who isn't going anywhere: the son of owner Shahid Khan.
Tony Khan is the team's senior vice president of football technology and analytics. The younger Khan manages a staff with three data analysts and has developed a good reputation for his serious approach to mastering analytics. As demonstrated in a 2013 ESPN The Magazine feature, he and the Jaguars aren't bashful about their innovative approach.
In some cases, the details they've released have raised doubt about the depth of the work. In 2013, for example, Khan revealed the data used to convince coach Gus Bradley to give quarterback Blaine Gabbert another year, including Gabbert's NFL-high completion percentage when facing six or more pass rushers. But the relevance of that statistic was minimal, given the fact that six-man rushes occurred on only 8 percent of the NFL's dropbacks over that time period.
The Jaguars have traditional football people in key decision-making roles, including GM David Caldwell. But while the Jaguars are still making the transformation from old-school to all-in on analytics, the franchise's progress, structure and commitment mark Jacksonville as one of the true "Believers" in the NFL.
Kansas City
Chiefs
Chiefs coach Andy Reid bought into analytics during his tenure with the Eagles, and in 2013 he brought Mike Frazier, his long-time statistical analysis coordinator, with him from Philadelphia. Frazier has the coach's trust, which is often the missing element for NFL teams with analytics staffers, in advocating detailed information that includes win probability scenarios.
Reid's proclivity for throwing the ball during his time in Philadelphia was at times ridiculed in the media, but in hindsight it had solid grounding in data that demonstrated the running game had been overvalued according to the evolving NFL passing rules. Reid was a leader at the time using screen plays as substitutes for run calls.
On the personnel side, the Chiefs are likewise engaged. GM John Dorsey, while acknowledging that "I'm an old-school guy," works with director of player personnel Chris Ballard to blend technology and data into their decisions on the draft and acquisitions, with additional input from salary cap analyst Brandt Tilis and a variety of third-party providers.
New England
patriots
One NFL analytics professional called the Patriots a "big black hole" when it comes to revealing any secrets, which of course applies to most everything they do under coach Bill Belichick. But some evidence of the implementation of analytics has escaped the Patriots' gravitational field, and it suggests that the Patriots are one of the most innovative teams in the NFL.
Owner Robert Kraft worked with a former colleague in the 1990s to create statistical models for player valuation. And for the past 15 years, Belichick has relied heavily on his football research director, Ernie Adams, a former Wall Street trader who collaborates with the coach to develop a variety of cutting-edge approaches to team building and game play.
Belichick recently told The Boston Globe: "Ernie's really a great sounding board for me personally and other members of our staff. Particularly coaching staff. Strategy, rules, decisions. Ernie's very, very smart.''
One major strategy employed by the Patriots has been an arbitrage system in personnel, whether multiplying draft picks via draft day trades or moving their veteran players (such as defensive tackle Richard Seymour in 2009, receiver Randy Moss in 2010 and offensive lineman Logan Mankins in 2014) before they lose value. Based in part on such moves, the Patriots have had unmatched success in the Belichick era, with four Super Bowl rings and counting.
On the field, Belichick's approach appears less consistent. His failed fourth-down gambit against the Colts in 2009 was decried by fans but cheered by analysts who recommend that teams play more aggressively. But in other cases, he has coached rather conservatively, defying his reputation.
Regardless, there is little doubt that the Patriots invest time and energy looking for every edge, and their commitment to ruthlessly outsmarting the competition is a Belichick trademark.
Philadelphia
Eagles
Led by coach Chip Kelly and "sports science coordinator" Shaun Huls, who earned his stripes training Navy SEALs, the Eagles have developed a health regimen that incorporates hydration tracking, individualized smoothies, sleep monitors, daily massage therapy and Catapult's player-output technology. Under Kelly, who consolidated control of the football side of the organization in January, the Eagles will consider any technology, data or strategy on the market.
The Eagles have used analytics over the years as much as any other NFL team, dating back to Dick Vermeil and more recently Andy Reid (now in Kansas City), Joe Banner (now in Atlanta) and recently-deposed GM Howie Roseman, whose influence is now limited to contracts and salary cap management. The Eagles employ a small team of analysts and consultants, even after the departure of Mike Frazier, who joined Reid with the Chiefs.
While Kelly was expected to innovate on and off the field in Philly, he hasn't asked the Eagles to convert fourth downs as frequently as he did at Oregon. Then again, the Ducks' potent offense was facing college defenses.
As one informed member of the NFL analytics community put it, "You can arrive at the same answer through math or through experience. I think he arrived at those answers at Oregon through experience. He has an open mind, but he lets the situation dictate what he does."
San Francisco
49ers
Paraag Marathe got his break with the 49ers in 2001 when coach Bill Walsh and exec Terry Donahue hired him based on his work as part of a consulting team providing a data-oriented approach to the draft. In the years since, Marathe has risen to team president, along the way building a robust database and an analytics department with "four or five folks," he told FiveThirtyEight, working on "helping scouts better evaluate players, helping coaches, as well as the salary cap."
Marathe couldn't have a stronger advocate than CEO Jed York, and said he'd "like to think" the whole organization has bought in to analytics. Colin Kaepernick's 2014 team-friendly contract was crafted according to analytical research, with a refundable, "pay as you go" structure, setting an NFL precedent for QB contracts.
On the other hand, the 2011 signing of 28-year-old running back Frank Gore to a three-year contract extension worth $21 million raised doubts. It paid off -- Gore has run for at least 1,100 yards in the past four seasons -- but the contract ran counter to the new analytics wisdom against committing premium cash and salary cap space to the running back position.
On the coaching side, former coach Jim Harbaugh wanted little to do with analytics. But new coach Jim Tomsula, while he has similarly old-school roots, is, according to sources, more amenable to input from the analytics staff.
ONE FOOT IN
Buffalo
Bills
Bills CEO Russ Brandon declared his intent to build a "robust" analytics department in January 2013. He hired Mike Lyons, an MIT engineering graduate, as director of analytics in October that year and heralded then-coach Doug Marrone's commitment to data via Catapult Sports' technology for monitoring exertion in practice and player health.
Buffalo's follow-through has been halting. Lyons' work didn't register with Marrone, and the coach routinely punted or kicked field goals on makeable fourth downs when a commitment to analytics would have led to a less rigid approach.
"I think you have to consider the environment in which those analytics are done," Marrone said in 2014. "Because, if it was proven that way and it was definitely a fact, I think that you would see all of us do it. None of us are going to put our teams in jeopardy to do that. . . . A lot of times, when people on the outside are looking in, I don't know if they truly understand what the data is and where it's coming from."
It remains to be seen whether the Bills can impose a more effective influence on Ryan, who employed traditional game management during his tenure with the Jets.
Chicago
Bears
The Bears are a team in transition, and the depth of their future commitment to analytics remains to be seen. Chicago was clearly committed under former GM Phil Emery, who hired STATS LLC manager Mitch Tanney as director of analytics in 2013 and integrated Tanney's work into the Bears' processes. Former coach Marc Trestman, also an Emery hire, approached game management with unconventional thinking as well.
But Emery and Trestman were ousted after the 2014 season, and the Bears are expected to pull back from the front edge of NFL analytics. While Tanney remains to provide input for new GM Ryan Pace, the Bears will almost certainly take a more traditional approach under Pace and his first major hire, coach John Fox, a highly respected but conventional coach.
Pace told reporters in January: "I look at analytics as a tool in our toolbox to better evaluate players. I don't want you guys thinking that I'm some 'Moneyball' GM, that's not me. But analytics is important."
Green Bay
Packers
The Packers employ one of the NFL's most experienced analysts, Mike Eayrs, who has spent 14 years as Green Bay's director of research and development after 16 years in a similar role with the Minnesota Vikings. Eayrs maintains Green Bay's databases, meets weekly during the season with coach Mike McCarthy to pass along reports, trends and advice for the upcoming game and speaks to the team every Thursday during the season about officiating tendencies.
That doesn't put Green Bay at the forefront of the NFL's analytics movement. McCarthy, like many other NFL coaches, buys in only minimally to the latest generation of analytics and prefers Eayrs' more standard approach to stats. Furthermore, as the NFC Championship Game made clear, McCarthy does not sufficiently incorporate analytics into his game management. He twice chose short field goals and later triggered his four-minute offense too soon, each time defying the widely-available data on win probability.
On the other hand, McCarthy has proved himself to be relatively progressive with his management of practice and player health, responding to data to flip his traditional Friday and Saturday practice routines.
The Packers rarely use analytics on the personnel side, as general manager Ted Thompson admitted in a recent interview with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Thompson, an old-school GM, said, "I'm not saying I believe in [analytics], but I'm not going to shut my ears to it. ... We are beginning the process of dabbling in analytics."
Miami
Dolphins
Owner Steve Ross and general manager Dennis Hickey have become proponents of analytics, and new VP of football operations Mike Tannenbaum, formerly with the Jets, is a recent convert. Ross is a heavy user of analytics in his real estate business and has been frustrated by its relative infancy in the NFL.
In the summer of 2014, the team hired Dennis Lock, who holds a graduate degree in statistics, as head analyst (now director of analytics) to "head a football analytics group." At the same time, the Dolphins announced the hiring of sports science analyst Dave Regan, and in September, Tom Pasquali, with a graduate degree in applied statistics and experience in the Yankees' front office, joined Lock's staff.
Tannenbaum said in January he was planning to hire a "sports performance director" and acknowledged, "We have a long way to go, but we started something in terms of trying to give ourselves a competitive advantage."
Miami has monitored player health for several years, and coach Joe Philbin has altered his practice schedule to improve sleep habits by becoming the only coach to give players Thursday off. But Philbin focuses on game film far more than stats, and it remains to be seen how well he'll use Miami's burgeoning analytics department.
Oakland
Raiders
General manager Reggie McKenzie faced a massive modernization project when he was hired in 2012 in the wake of the death of the Raiders' legendary longtime owner Al Davis. McKenzie's efforts have included the infusion of technology and data into the football operation.
George Li, a former stats researcher with ESPN and the NFL Network, became a defensive assistant for Oakland in 2011 and then the Raiders' statistical analyst in 2012. Li manages databases and statistics provided by Pro Football Focus and STATS Inc., among other sources, serving both the personnel and coaching sides for Oakland.
The coaching staff has been receptive to analytics, and new head coach Jack Del Rio, a former player with a reputation as an old-school traditionalist, has shown some interest in data and analytics, as well.
At the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Del Rio participated in a panel on alternative ways to manage game situations. He spoke of the "courage" required to split with the conventional "book" when the data suggests it.
Seattle
Seahawks
The Seahawks are heavily invested in sports science and aggressively pursue whatever techniques can help their players maintain conditioning. Their football support staff includes a director of player health and performance (Sam Ramsden), a sports scientist (Patrick Ward), an applied sports scientist (Dean Riddle) and a sports scientist specialist (Thomas Garcia) in addition to a full complement of athletic trainers. The Seahawks have also worked with GPSSports to track their players with GPS chips during practice.
How committed the Seahawks are to data analysis in their decision-making is less clear. After letting go of Todd Nielson, who filed reports for coach Pete Carroll, in 2013 Seattle hired Brian Eayrs as director of research and development. Eayrs is a former college quarterback and assistant coach who has worked at STATS LLC and the son of longtime NFL data analyst Mike Eayrs, who has worked for the Green Bay Packers for 14 years.
While Carroll and the Seahawks received plenty of flak for their decision to pass from the one-yard line on the 2015 Super Bowl's decisive play, Benjamin Morris at FiveThirtyEight made the mathematical case that the play call was more sensible than it first seemed.
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have moved quickly in the past year to begin incorporating advanced stats. In March 2014, Tampa Bay hired a full-time manager of analytics, Tyler Oberly, who provides data to both management and the coaching staff. A former analytics consultant in several other industries, Oberly created the Elitics Model for evaluating player value, putting all NFL players on a single scale with a "Player Efficiency Rating" similar to John Hollinger's PER for basketball.
GM Jason Licht, who arrived in January 2014, comes from a scouting background but has developed a newfound appreciation for data, saying last year that being able to incorporate analytics was "an important part of my demands" upon taking the Tampa Bay job: "Early on in my career, I was from the old school where it was, you just watch the tape. [Now I] feel that analytics help us, guide us and raise some questions that help us evaluate the player a little bit better."
Coach Lovie Smith is known as a highly conservative and traditional game manager, but he has been open to some sports science techniques to help players recover more quickly.
SKEPTICS
Arizona
CARDINALS
The Cardinals were in the analytics dark ages prior to John Keim's ascension to general manager in 2013. On several occasions, Keim has said he wants to include not only scouting but also analytics, and he hired Mike Disner, who was with the NFL Management Council for four years, as director of football administration to further the transition.
Disner's primary goal is to work on the Cardinals' salary cap, but he was also involved in transitioning the team's 2013 approach to free agency to incorporate statistical data and projections. Much of his work mirrors what most NFL teams have been doing already, but the Cardinals were essentially starting from scratch in this area when Keim was elevated.
Carolina
Panthers
The Panthers got the attention of the data community when coach Ron Rivera began aggressively approaching fourth-down conversions during the 2013 season. Rivera became known as "Riverboat Ron" for his willingness to gamble, but he backed down from the strategy in 2014 when his offense grew was less reliable.
Rivera says he makes decisions more by feel than data. "I still believe figures lie and liars figure," he said. "You can look for a stat to support whatever you want. . . . At the end of the day, there is a feel, there is a rhythm to the game and you have to find a way to match the rhythm of your opponent."
Director of team administration Rob Rogers and the Panthers have taken steps to modernize their approach to technology and analytics, including building their own digital editing system. In 2014, Carolina started working with with Statsports, which provides health-tracking data.
Cincinnati
Bengals
Cincinnati is notoriously one of the NFL's thriftiest teams. According to one source familiar with their operation, the Bengals are more likely to seek pro bono assistance from the University of Cincinnati's analytics program than spend real money on developing their own advanced stats.
The Bengals did contract with Catapult for the 2014 season to track player exertion during practice. During training camp in 2014, coach Marvin Lewis said, "It's been very helpful to me. I like the information I'm gaining from it."
Informed sources say Lewis is "willing to listen" but is almost always skeptical of analytics to be used in other areas. The Bengals don't have a traditional general manager, meaning Lewis largely has the finally say on such matters. As a result, the Bengals haven't embraced analytics nearly as much as some other franchises.
Denver
Broncos
The team's use of analytics remains in infancy, but executive vice president and general manager John Elway is committed to future development.
"I'm a numbers guy," Elway told ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold last month. "I know the power they have, but we're still trying to develop a role for it. I have a lot of résumés from people who want to help us put that together, but I would say we understand it can be a tool and we're trying to develop what it will be and what it will do for us."
As it stood when the offseason began, the Broncos tracked situational tendencies thanks to the work of Tony Lazarro, director of football information systems. But Elway acknowledged "we want to get our arms around" analytics and that "we haven't used as much of it to this point."
Elway said he plans to send a contingent to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference after scheduling related to the Super Bowl prevented attendance in 2014.
Detroit
Lions
The Lions hired Brian Xanders in 2013 as their senior personnel executive and charged him with overhauling their scouting database as it relates to the draft and advance scouting. Xanders retains significant authority in the personnel department as general manager Martin Mayhew has worked to modernize the team's draft process.
Mayhew said the Lions use "some" analytics and qualified his interest this way: "To me, it's like when you talk about the combine and how high a guy can jump, how fast can he run. It's just a piece of the puzzle. You don't draft a guy because he had the fastest time or can jump the highest."
In 2014, the Lions became the only known NFL team to contract with Zebra Inc., which uses RFID technology rather than GPS, for health data.
Staff counsel Jon Dykema has dabbled in analytics but has multiple other responsibilities. Coach Jim Caldwell displays no evidence that he uses analytics, or that data is available to him, in making game-management decisions.
Houston
Texans
The Texans have taken steps toward analytic fluency and have indicated interest in stats, but their commitment is minimal.
General manager Rick Smith is known to have investigated companies that offer GPS health tracking, and he has said the Texans use advanced stats in the draft process. Personnel executive Brian Gaine arrived in 2014 from a Miami Dolphins franchise that is relatively advanced by comparison. But the Texans don't use an outside company to compile any data, and their internal structure is underdeveloped.
Coach Bill O'Brien, a Brown graduate, has made clear that numbers and data play only a small role at best in his decision-making. "[Y]ou've got to be careful there, but we definitely in all three phases use, I guess the word would be 'analytics,' to figure out what the tendencies are, what our calls may be in those situations. But at the end of the day, it's football and you just have to put your player in the best position to go make plays."
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are among the NFL teams that use Catapult's GPS technology during practice, allowing them to monitor exertion and conditioning. Coach Chuck Pagano said, "We understand there are going to be injuries; they're part of the game. But by using these techniques, we can eliminate some of the soft-tissue stuff, the groins, the quads, the hamstrings."
Otherwise, under general manager Ryan Grigson and Pagano, the Colts operate as traditionally as any team in the league.
Grigson is a former NFL player who fully trusts conventional methods of player evaluation: tape and instincts. Pagano, meanwhile, routinely has been criticized for punting in fourth-and-short situations, passing up the opportunity to further employ the versatility of quarterback Andrew Luck in an attempt to maintain a field-position advantage. The Colts, in short, do not buy in.
Minnesota
Vikings
General manager Rick Spielman is an obsessive accumulator of information, whether it is on potential draft picks, during a coaching search or in preparation for free agency. Before hiring coach Mike Zimmer, Spielman developed 13 separate profiles of NFL coaches, based on history, to help guide his search.
This approach informs his methods with analytics as well. In 2014, the Vikings used an intern-level employee in the personnel department to accumulate data. It's unclear how much it was used by decision-makers; the intern was eventually assigned to do advance work for special-teams coordinator Mike Priefer.
Zimmer takes a decidedly conventional approach to game management, and in a 2014 interview on the topic, Spielman said: "We have all those charts and looked at them. But when the game is going, you still have to go with what your gut instinct is."
New Orleans
Saints
The Saints might be in the "Skeptics" camp overall, but they don't show the hostility to analytics principles that some NFL teams do.
Coach Asshole Face is relatively aggressive on fourth down -- although no one stat is the whole story, the Saints have more fourth-down offensive snaps (34) than any other team with a winning record over the past two seasons. Also, Payton's onside kick call in Super Bowl XLIV will go down in NFL history. But the evidence suggests Payton's decisions were inspired less by data than by his instincts and confidence in New Orleans' high-powered offense.
The Saints have become quite interested in technology and recently served as a beta test for Zebra's Beyond Gameday statistics that track exertion and movement via RFID technology during games. Payton has also spoken publicly on a number of occasions about the increased efficiency of digital film.
"Our ability to access certain cut-ups, statistical data has changed, and we have more of it and more readily available," Payton said. "And now it's a matter of looking and trying to put values on what we think is most important and making sure we're not running down a road with something that's not."
New York
Giants
Don't be misled by the age of the Giants' coach (Tom Coughlin is 68) or the franchise's general disposition toward tradition. A fair amount of activity is going on behind the scenes.
The Giants' hiring of performance manager Joe Danos underscores their commitment to tracking player health, from GPS technology through Catapult to consultations from sleep experts. They were also the first NFL team known to consult opponent analysis via Pro Football Focus to assist the work of director of football information Jon Berger.
Giants general manager Jerry Reese has downplayed the use of data in drafting and other football operations, telling the team's website in 2013: "We try to put the numbers in and see what the numbers say, but we put our eyes on players and see what our eyes say."
Still, the Giants waded into the advanced analytics field in the summer of 2014, hiring Connor Lewis to develop football analytics. Lewis' background was in ticket sales with the Tennessee Titans, and he is applying techniques used in business data tracking to the Giants' football side.
Pittsburgh
Steelers
The Steelers are among the NFL teams that use Catapult to track their players' exertion and conditioning during practice. This in itself represents a major step for an organization steeped in tradition. The Steelers have been one of the NFL's most successful franchises for several generations and believe it stems from a steady hand rather than quick steps to embrace a fad or the newest trend.
On a quiet and experimental level, the Steelers have also begun to develop statistical information that could be useful for player acquisition and game management. But it is not believed that the team's football leaders, general manager Kevin Colbert and coach Mike Tomlin, have embraced the concept.
In 2014, Steelers team president Art Rooney II told ESPN 970: "I think the computer research and all the information that can get stored, there is an ability now to call up more information, more quickly, which I think that every team going to want to take advantage of, and I think we're no exception."
St. Louis
Rams
Rams executive vice president/chief operating officer Kevin Demoff is an advocate of statistical analysis and has participated in the annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.
He has cited the 2012 trade that brought the Rams a bounty of draft picks from the Washington Redskins in exchange for the No. 2 overall pick as an exemplary case. The deal meant the Rams would have 12 first- or second-round picks on their roster under the favorable rookie scale. "Twelve of our best players will make less than $25 million combined in 2014," Demoff said.
Coach Jeff Fisher, while generally a traditionalist, is open-minded and is known to take a nontraditional approach to game management -- especially with fake punts deep in his own territory.
But general manager Les Snead, whose roots are in scouting, is more hostile to analytics. He has endorsed the anti-"Moneyball" book called "Scout's Honor" and has emphasized that teams must "feel" a player's talents more than measure them: "It's like if someone asks you to pick someone as a graduation speaker. Do you just go on his nice résumé or how well he can write and put words together on a sheet of paper? Well, those may be the metrics of the situation. But for me, before you pick that speaker, I want actually go hear him and feel him speak. You want to go to that room and get the feeling of how that room reacts when he talks. Does he move the crowd? If you're in the room, you can feel it, and then you can say, 'Yeah, now he's that guy!'"
NONBELIEVERS
New York
JETS
For the past six seasons, the Jets were built around the old-school sensibilities of Rex Ryan, with line coach Dave DeGuglielmo summing up the traditional mindset with a 2012 rant against analytics: "All of a sudden we're 'Moneyballing' offensive lineman," he said. "[The] world I live in isn't a fantasy world."
Ryan's departure does not herald a new approach to analytics. Team owner Woody Johnson has given no indication analytics will be incorporated into the Jets' football operations.
New GM Mike Maccagnan, whose background is as a scout and scouting director, has spent most of his NFL career with the Houston Texans, one of the least analytics-friendly organizations in the NFL. New coach Todd Bowles comes from the Arizona Cardinals, another organization that has done little with analytics. It's safe to say that bringing analytics to the Jets was not a priority in either hire.
San Diego
Chargers
Mike McCoy is one of the most traditional coaches in the NFL and appears to have no interest in using data, whether to assist with player health and safety or to manage game situations.
"I'm going to go with my gut decision on those things," McCoy said during the 2014 season. "No one on a piece of paper can tell me this is the right thing or the wrong thing to do. ... It's all about what you think is best, and what you think is best for your team at that time."
GM Tom Telesco emphasizes the importance of "good football decisions," based on instincts and "hard old-school scouting." Upon joining the Chargers in 2013, he indicated an openness to bringing stats to his evaluations. But his background is in scouting, and he cut his teeth in an Indianapolis Colts front office led by Bill Polian, who vocally opposes the use of analytics in football, especially in regard to personnel decisions.
Tennessee
Titans
The Titans are not into analytics. They have no chief data analyst and, more important, no advocate or endorsement for analytics from their football leaders.
When he was hired in 2014, coach Ken Whisenhunt gave an interview that resonated throughout the analytics community. Asked by a Nashville radio station whether he pays attention to analytics, he said "Not really," then added:
"f you get so wrapped up in analytics, sometimes you lose a feel for the game. And to me, there is an emotional side of the game and there is also a feel for the game. When you see a guy like [Frank] Wycheck make a one-handed catch in the back of the end zone with the guy draped all over him, how do you put an analytic on that? I mean, I respect it, I respect the fact that you can do studies and that you can put time in about it. But to me ... there is a lot of feel and emotion involved."
Washington
Redskins
The Redskins were named by source after source as the NFL team with the least interest in using analytics in football operations. Despite Washington's massive operation on the business side, there is no analytics chief on the football side.
That wasn't true for seven weeks in 2006, when the Redskins hired Jeff Dominitz to produce statistical analysis. But then-coach Joe Gibbs indicated his disdain for analytics, saying, "We're still about people here." Soon Dominitz was gone.
The recent five-year GM tenure of Bruce Allen was likewise not an era of analytics for Washington, and there are no signs that will change anytime soon with Allen as team president. New GM Scot McCloughan comes from San Francisco, a team close to the front edge of analytics usage in the NFL, but he has a scouting background and has given no indications of an analytics-friendly approach.
With Daniel Snyder as owner since 1999, Washington has become known for inefficient spending, consistently handing out some of the worst contrasts in the NFL. The Skins are so disengaged from the advanced stats movement that even local legend Tony Kornheiser, no stathead himself, recently pleaded with them to try analytics to turn around a franchise that's gone 7-25 the past two seasons.
Kevin Seifert
ESPN's national NFL writer Kevin Seifert is the author of NFL Nation's "Inside Slant" blog on issues and innovations in the NFL. He can be reached at @SeifertESPN.
By Kevin Seifert, ESPN.com | February 23, 2015
http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings
ALL-IN
None
BELIEVERS
Atlanta
Falcons
Don't mistake the Falcons' game-management problems in recent years for a disdain of analytics. General manager Thomas Dimitroff is a strong proponent of analytics in every form, saying, "We use analytics to eliminate as much guesswork as we possibly can."
Dimitroff employs analytics for draft evaluation, trade and talent assessments (including the controversial deal that brought them Julio Jones), game strategy and more. The Falcons have been implementing new technologies to monitor and improve player health for years, including measurements of exertion in practice and development of a sleep management program.
Former coach Mike Smith's well-documented strategic mistakes cost the Falcons a playoff spot and Smith his job. The Falcons had worked hard to move Smith into a more analytical way of thinking, but he did not make the transition successfully.
With Dimitroff's status in Atlanta considered somewhat shaky as well, the future of the Falcons' analytics program is in doubt. But for now, they are one of the more engaged teams in the NFL, and new coach Dan Quinn is expected to participate in the Falcons' innovative approach.
Baltimore
Ravens
The Ravens are among the NFL's leaders in analytics, employing two analysts with topflight credentials and training in the business world, academia and applied statistics. What's more, the analytics staff gets significant support and buy-in from the front office and coaching staff.
Sandy Weil, a Yale and Carnegie Mellon graduate with Wall Street experience, has been the team's director of analytics since 2012. Eugene Shen, a Harvard and MIT grad with years of experience in applying advanced metrics to the financial markets, works directly with the coaching staff.
On the personnel side, their research produces unconventional wisdom, a strong suit of the Ravens' front office in general. That has included the aggressive acquisition of compensatory picks -- a category in which Baltimore has led the NFL over a number of years.
Their work is even more visible via coach John Harbaugh's game-management decisions. When Harbaugh went for it on fourth-and-goal at the 1-yard line last season, his explanation was music to an analytics booster's ears.
"Part of that strategy," Harbaugh said, "is you have them backed up, so worst-case scenario if you have some confidence in your defense, you're going to get the ball back with a real good chance to recoup that field goal, and that's what we did. So it doesn't matter if you kick it from the 9-yard line or the 39-yard line -- it's still three points. We didn't come out of that any worse for the wear. We didn't lose any points on that. We would've rather had the four points for the touchdown, absolutely. That's why I went for it."
Cleveland
Browns
Team president Alec Scheiner arrived in 2012 from Dallas, where as senior vice president/general counsel he had helped conceive and implement the Cowboys' analytics system. Scheiner brought analytics chief Ken Kovash with him to Cleveland, and Kovash provides assistance to both the personnel side and the coaching staff.
Former Browns CEO Joe Banner was also a strong proponent of analytics. ESPN reported that under his leadership the team spent $100,000 on an independent study of the 2014 quarterback class based on advanced stats. The study revealed that Teddy Bridgewater was the top prospect for the year. But Banner's ouster in early 2014 changed the team's front-office dynamic, and as is well known, the Browns drafted Johnny Manziel.
New general manager Ray Farmer, while not a true believer in analytics, refers to himself as "a nerd by trait" and a "stats guy." Likewise, coach Mike Pettine is said to be open to alternative ideas. It remains to be seen exactly how much Farmer's leadership resembles Banner's in terms of analytics usage, but overall the Browns are one of the NFL's more committed teams.
Dallas
Cowboys
The Cowboys have a long and storied history with analytics. Dallas legends Tex Schramm, Gil Brandt and Tom Landry were among the most systematic thinkers of their era. And in the early 1960s, as a recent FiveThirtyEight film portrayed, Indian immigrant A. Salam Qureishi began integrating numbers and data into the Cowboys' draft process.
The Cowboys' latest incarnation of analytics started with former team executive Alec Scheiner, now the Cleveland Browns' president. Since Scheiner's departure in 2012, the Cowboys have transitioned director of football research Thomas Robinson into the role vacated by Ken Kovash, who joined Scheiner in Cleveland.
While some question how committed owner/GM Jerry Jones is to the use of analytics, the Cowboys otherwise have a good reputation for being willing to spend and innovate. They develop their own advanced stats and are avid consumers of data produced by technology and independent analysts.
Dallas set an organizational goal to improve coach Jason Garrett's game-management decisions with the help of analytics and saw some results during its 2014 NFC East title season.
Jacksonville
Jaguars
The Jaguars have a powerful analytics advocate who isn't going anywhere: the son of owner Shahid Khan.
Tony Khan is the team's senior vice president of football technology and analytics. The younger Khan manages a staff with three data analysts and has developed a good reputation for his serious approach to mastering analytics. As demonstrated in a 2013 ESPN The Magazine feature, he and the Jaguars aren't bashful about their innovative approach.
In some cases, the details they've released have raised doubt about the depth of the work. In 2013, for example, Khan revealed the data used to convince coach Gus Bradley to give quarterback Blaine Gabbert another year, including Gabbert's NFL-high completion percentage when facing six or more pass rushers. But the relevance of that statistic was minimal, given the fact that six-man rushes occurred on only 8 percent of the NFL's dropbacks over that time period.
The Jaguars have traditional football people in key decision-making roles, including GM David Caldwell. But while the Jaguars are still making the transformation from old-school to all-in on analytics, the franchise's progress, structure and commitment mark Jacksonville as one of the true "Believers" in the NFL.
Kansas City
Chiefs
Chiefs coach Andy Reid bought into analytics during his tenure with the Eagles, and in 2013 he brought Mike Frazier, his long-time statistical analysis coordinator, with him from Philadelphia. Frazier has the coach's trust, which is often the missing element for NFL teams with analytics staffers, in advocating detailed information that includes win probability scenarios.
Reid's proclivity for throwing the ball during his time in Philadelphia was at times ridiculed in the media, but in hindsight it had solid grounding in data that demonstrated the running game had been overvalued according to the evolving NFL passing rules. Reid was a leader at the time using screen plays as substitutes for run calls.
On the personnel side, the Chiefs are likewise engaged. GM John Dorsey, while acknowledging that "I'm an old-school guy," works with director of player personnel Chris Ballard to blend technology and data into their decisions on the draft and acquisitions, with additional input from salary cap analyst Brandt Tilis and a variety of third-party providers.
New England
patriots
One NFL analytics professional called the Patriots a "big black hole" when it comes to revealing any secrets, which of course applies to most everything they do under coach Bill Belichick. But some evidence of the implementation of analytics has escaped the Patriots' gravitational field, and it suggests that the Patriots are one of the most innovative teams in the NFL.
Owner Robert Kraft worked with a former colleague in the 1990s to create statistical models for player valuation. And for the past 15 years, Belichick has relied heavily on his football research director, Ernie Adams, a former Wall Street trader who collaborates with the coach to develop a variety of cutting-edge approaches to team building and game play.
Belichick recently told The Boston Globe: "Ernie's really a great sounding board for me personally and other members of our staff. Particularly coaching staff. Strategy, rules, decisions. Ernie's very, very smart.''
One major strategy employed by the Patriots has been an arbitrage system in personnel, whether multiplying draft picks via draft day trades or moving their veteran players (such as defensive tackle Richard Seymour in 2009, receiver Randy Moss in 2010 and offensive lineman Logan Mankins in 2014) before they lose value. Based in part on such moves, the Patriots have had unmatched success in the Belichick era, with four Super Bowl rings and counting.
On the field, Belichick's approach appears less consistent. His failed fourth-down gambit against the Colts in 2009 was decried by fans but cheered by analysts who recommend that teams play more aggressively. But in other cases, he has coached rather conservatively, defying his reputation.
Regardless, there is little doubt that the Patriots invest time and energy looking for every edge, and their commitment to ruthlessly outsmarting the competition is a Belichick trademark.
Philadelphia
Eagles
Led by coach Chip Kelly and "sports science coordinator" Shaun Huls, who earned his stripes training Navy SEALs, the Eagles have developed a health regimen that incorporates hydration tracking, individualized smoothies, sleep monitors, daily massage therapy and Catapult's player-output technology. Under Kelly, who consolidated control of the football side of the organization in January, the Eagles will consider any technology, data or strategy on the market.
The Eagles have used analytics over the years as much as any other NFL team, dating back to Dick Vermeil and more recently Andy Reid (now in Kansas City), Joe Banner (now in Atlanta) and recently-deposed GM Howie Roseman, whose influence is now limited to contracts and salary cap management. The Eagles employ a small team of analysts and consultants, even after the departure of Mike Frazier, who joined Reid with the Chiefs.
While Kelly was expected to innovate on and off the field in Philly, he hasn't asked the Eagles to convert fourth downs as frequently as he did at Oregon. Then again, the Ducks' potent offense was facing college defenses.
As one informed member of the NFL analytics community put it, "You can arrive at the same answer through math or through experience. I think he arrived at those answers at Oregon through experience. He has an open mind, but he lets the situation dictate what he does."
San Francisco
49ers
Paraag Marathe got his break with the 49ers in 2001 when coach Bill Walsh and exec Terry Donahue hired him based on his work as part of a consulting team providing a data-oriented approach to the draft. In the years since, Marathe has risen to team president, along the way building a robust database and an analytics department with "four or five folks," he told FiveThirtyEight, working on "helping scouts better evaluate players, helping coaches, as well as the salary cap."
Marathe couldn't have a stronger advocate than CEO Jed York, and said he'd "like to think" the whole organization has bought in to analytics. Colin Kaepernick's 2014 team-friendly contract was crafted according to analytical research, with a refundable, "pay as you go" structure, setting an NFL precedent for QB contracts.
On the other hand, the 2011 signing of 28-year-old running back Frank Gore to a three-year contract extension worth $21 million raised doubts. It paid off -- Gore has run for at least 1,100 yards in the past four seasons -- but the contract ran counter to the new analytics wisdom against committing premium cash and salary cap space to the running back position.
On the coaching side, former coach Jim Harbaugh wanted little to do with analytics. But new coach Jim Tomsula, while he has similarly old-school roots, is, according to sources, more amenable to input from the analytics staff.
ONE FOOT IN
Buffalo
Bills
Bills CEO Russ Brandon declared his intent to build a "robust" analytics department in January 2013. He hired Mike Lyons, an MIT engineering graduate, as director of analytics in October that year and heralded then-coach Doug Marrone's commitment to data via Catapult Sports' technology for monitoring exertion in practice and player health.
Buffalo's follow-through has been halting. Lyons' work didn't register with Marrone, and the coach routinely punted or kicked field goals on makeable fourth downs when a commitment to analytics would have led to a less rigid approach.
"I think you have to consider the environment in which those analytics are done," Marrone said in 2014. "Because, if it was proven that way and it was definitely a fact, I think that you would see all of us do it. None of us are going to put our teams in jeopardy to do that. . . . A lot of times, when people on the outside are looking in, I don't know if they truly understand what the data is and where it's coming from."
It remains to be seen whether the Bills can impose a more effective influence on Ryan, who employed traditional game management during his tenure with the Jets.
Chicago
Bears
The Bears are a team in transition, and the depth of their future commitment to analytics remains to be seen. Chicago was clearly committed under former GM Phil Emery, who hired STATS LLC manager Mitch Tanney as director of analytics in 2013 and integrated Tanney's work into the Bears' processes. Former coach Marc Trestman, also an Emery hire, approached game management with unconventional thinking as well.
But Emery and Trestman were ousted after the 2014 season, and the Bears are expected to pull back from the front edge of NFL analytics. While Tanney remains to provide input for new GM Ryan Pace, the Bears will almost certainly take a more traditional approach under Pace and his first major hire, coach John Fox, a highly respected but conventional coach.
Pace told reporters in January: "I look at analytics as a tool in our toolbox to better evaluate players. I don't want you guys thinking that I'm some 'Moneyball' GM, that's not me. But analytics is important."
Green Bay
Packers
The Packers employ one of the NFL's most experienced analysts, Mike Eayrs, who has spent 14 years as Green Bay's director of research and development after 16 years in a similar role with the Minnesota Vikings. Eayrs maintains Green Bay's databases, meets weekly during the season with coach Mike McCarthy to pass along reports, trends and advice for the upcoming game and speaks to the team every Thursday during the season about officiating tendencies.
That doesn't put Green Bay at the forefront of the NFL's analytics movement. McCarthy, like many other NFL coaches, buys in only minimally to the latest generation of analytics and prefers Eayrs' more standard approach to stats. Furthermore, as the NFC Championship Game made clear, McCarthy does not sufficiently incorporate analytics into his game management. He twice chose short field goals and later triggered his four-minute offense too soon, each time defying the widely-available data on win probability.
On the other hand, McCarthy has proved himself to be relatively progressive with his management of practice and player health, responding to data to flip his traditional Friday and Saturday practice routines.
The Packers rarely use analytics on the personnel side, as general manager Ted Thompson admitted in a recent interview with the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Thompson, an old-school GM, said, "I'm not saying I believe in [analytics], but I'm not going to shut my ears to it. ... We are beginning the process of dabbling in analytics."
Miami
Dolphins
Owner Steve Ross and general manager Dennis Hickey have become proponents of analytics, and new VP of football operations Mike Tannenbaum, formerly with the Jets, is a recent convert. Ross is a heavy user of analytics in his real estate business and has been frustrated by its relative infancy in the NFL.
In the summer of 2014, the team hired Dennis Lock, who holds a graduate degree in statistics, as head analyst (now director of analytics) to "head a football analytics group." At the same time, the Dolphins announced the hiring of sports science analyst Dave Regan, and in September, Tom Pasquali, with a graduate degree in applied statistics and experience in the Yankees' front office, joined Lock's staff.
Tannenbaum said in January he was planning to hire a "sports performance director" and acknowledged, "We have a long way to go, but we started something in terms of trying to give ourselves a competitive advantage."
Miami has monitored player health for several years, and coach Joe Philbin has altered his practice schedule to improve sleep habits by becoming the only coach to give players Thursday off. But Philbin focuses on game film far more than stats, and it remains to be seen how well he'll use Miami's burgeoning analytics department.
Oakland
Raiders
General manager Reggie McKenzie faced a massive modernization project when he was hired in 2012 in the wake of the death of the Raiders' legendary longtime owner Al Davis. McKenzie's efforts have included the infusion of technology and data into the football operation.
George Li, a former stats researcher with ESPN and the NFL Network, became a defensive assistant for Oakland in 2011 and then the Raiders' statistical analyst in 2012. Li manages databases and statistics provided by Pro Football Focus and STATS Inc., among other sources, serving both the personnel and coaching sides for Oakland.
The coaching staff has been receptive to analytics, and new head coach Jack Del Rio, a former player with a reputation as an old-school traditionalist, has shown some interest in data and analytics, as well.
At the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, Del Rio participated in a panel on alternative ways to manage game situations. He spoke of the "courage" required to split with the conventional "book" when the data suggests it.
Seattle
Seahawks
The Seahawks are heavily invested in sports science and aggressively pursue whatever techniques can help their players maintain conditioning. Their football support staff includes a director of player health and performance (Sam Ramsden), a sports scientist (Patrick Ward), an applied sports scientist (Dean Riddle) and a sports scientist specialist (Thomas Garcia) in addition to a full complement of athletic trainers. The Seahawks have also worked with GPSSports to track their players with GPS chips during practice.
How committed the Seahawks are to data analysis in their decision-making is less clear. After letting go of Todd Nielson, who filed reports for coach Pete Carroll, in 2013 Seattle hired Brian Eayrs as director of research and development. Eayrs is a former college quarterback and assistant coach who has worked at STATS LLC and the son of longtime NFL data analyst Mike Eayrs, who has worked for the Green Bay Packers for 14 years.
While Carroll and the Seahawks received plenty of flak for their decision to pass from the one-yard line on the 2015 Super Bowl's decisive play, Benjamin Morris at FiveThirtyEight made the mathematical case that the play call was more sensible than it first seemed.
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have moved quickly in the past year to begin incorporating advanced stats. In March 2014, Tampa Bay hired a full-time manager of analytics, Tyler Oberly, who provides data to both management and the coaching staff. A former analytics consultant in several other industries, Oberly created the Elitics Model for evaluating player value, putting all NFL players on a single scale with a "Player Efficiency Rating" similar to John Hollinger's PER for basketball.
GM Jason Licht, who arrived in January 2014, comes from a scouting background but has developed a newfound appreciation for data, saying last year that being able to incorporate analytics was "an important part of my demands" upon taking the Tampa Bay job: "Early on in my career, I was from the old school where it was, you just watch the tape. [Now I] feel that analytics help us, guide us and raise some questions that help us evaluate the player a little bit better."
Coach Lovie Smith is known as a highly conservative and traditional game manager, but he has been open to some sports science techniques to help players recover more quickly.
SKEPTICS
Arizona
CARDINALS
The Cardinals were in the analytics dark ages prior to John Keim's ascension to general manager in 2013. On several occasions, Keim has said he wants to include not only scouting but also analytics, and he hired Mike Disner, who was with the NFL Management Council for four years, as director of football administration to further the transition.
Disner's primary goal is to work on the Cardinals' salary cap, but he was also involved in transitioning the team's 2013 approach to free agency to incorporate statistical data and projections. Much of his work mirrors what most NFL teams have been doing already, but the Cardinals were essentially starting from scratch in this area when Keim was elevated.
Carolina
Panthers
The Panthers got the attention of the data community when coach Ron Rivera began aggressively approaching fourth-down conversions during the 2013 season. Rivera became known as "Riverboat Ron" for his willingness to gamble, but he backed down from the strategy in 2014 when his offense grew was less reliable.
Rivera says he makes decisions more by feel than data. "I still believe figures lie and liars figure," he said. "You can look for a stat to support whatever you want. . . . At the end of the day, there is a feel, there is a rhythm to the game and you have to find a way to match the rhythm of your opponent."
Director of team administration Rob Rogers and the Panthers have taken steps to modernize their approach to technology and analytics, including building their own digital editing system. In 2014, Carolina started working with with Statsports, which provides health-tracking data.
Cincinnati
Bengals
Cincinnati is notoriously one of the NFL's thriftiest teams. According to one source familiar with their operation, the Bengals are more likely to seek pro bono assistance from the University of Cincinnati's analytics program than spend real money on developing their own advanced stats.
The Bengals did contract with Catapult for the 2014 season to track player exertion during practice. During training camp in 2014, coach Marvin Lewis said, "It's been very helpful to me. I like the information I'm gaining from it."
Informed sources say Lewis is "willing to listen" but is almost always skeptical of analytics to be used in other areas. The Bengals don't have a traditional general manager, meaning Lewis largely has the finally say on such matters. As a result, the Bengals haven't embraced analytics nearly as much as some other franchises.
Denver
Broncos
The team's use of analytics remains in infancy, but executive vice president and general manager John Elway is committed to future development.
"I'm a numbers guy," Elway told ESPN.com's Jeff Legwold last month. "I know the power they have, but we're still trying to develop a role for it. I have a lot of résumés from people who want to help us put that together, but I would say we understand it can be a tool and we're trying to develop what it will be and what it will do for us."
As it stood when the offseason began, the Broncos tracked situational tendencies thanks to the work of Tony Lazarro, director of football information systems. But Elway acknowledged "we want to get our arms around" analytics and that "we haven't used as much of it to this point."
Elway said he plans to send a contingent to the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference after scheduling related to the Super Bowl prevented attendance in 2014.
Detroit
Lions
The Lions hired Brian Xanders in 2013 as their senior personnel executive and charged him with overhauling their scouting database as it relates to the draft and advance scouting. Xanders retains significant authority in the personnel department as general manager Martin Mayhew has worked to modernize the team's draft process.
Mayhew said the Lions use "some" analytics and qualified his interest this way: "To me, it's like when you talk about the combine and how high a guy can jump, how fast can he run. It's just a piece of the puzzle. You don't draft a guy because he had the fastest time or can jump the highest."
In 2014, the Lions became the only known NFL team to contract with Zebra Inc., which uses RFID technology rather than GPS, for health data.
Staff counsel Jon Dykema has dabbled in analytics but has multiple other responsibilities. Coach Jim Caldwell displays no evidence that he uses analytics, or that data is available to him, in making game-management decisions.
Houston
Texans
The Texans have taken steps toward analytic fluency and have indicated interest in stats, but their commitment is minimal.
General manager Rick Smith is known to have investigated companies that offer GPS health tracking, and he has said the Texans use advanced stats in the draft process. Personnel executive Brian Gaine arrived in 2014 from a Miami Dolphins franchise that is relatively advanced by comparison. But the Texans don't use an outside company to compile any data, and their internal structure is underdeveloped.
Coach Bill O'Brien, a Brown graduate, has made clear that numbers and data play only a small role at best in his decision-making. "[Y]ou've got to be careful there, but we definitely in all three phases use, I guess the word would be 'analytics,' to figure out what the tendencies are, what our calls may be in those situations. But at the end of the day, it's football and you just have to put your player in the best position to go make plays."
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are among the NFL teams that use Catapult's GPS technology during practice, allowing them to monitor exertion and conditioning. Coach Chuck Pagano said, "We understand there are going to be injuries; they're part of the game. But by using these techniques, we can eliminate some of the soft-tissue stuff, the groins, the quads, the hamstrings."
Otherwise, under general manager Ryan Grigson and Pagano, the Colts operate as traditionally as any team in the league.
Grigson is a former NFL player who fully trusts conventional methods of player evaluation: tape and instincts. Pagano, meanwhile, routinely has been criticized for punting in fourth-and-short situations, passing up the opportunity to further employ the versatility of quarterback Andrew Luck in an attempt to maintain a field-position advantage. The Colts, in short, do not buy in.
Minnesota
Vikings
General manager Rick Spielman is an obsessive accumulator of information, whether it is on potential draft picks, during a coaching search or in preparation for free agency. Before hiring coach Mike Zimmer, Spielman developed 13 separate profiles of NFL coaches, based on history, to help guide his search.
This approach informs his methods with analytics as well. In 2014, the Vikings used an intern-level employee in the personnel department to accumulate data. It's unclear how much it was used by decision-makers; the intern was eventually assigned to do advance work for special-teams coordinator Mike Priefer.
Zimmer takes a decidedly conventional approach to game management, and in a 2014 interview on the topic, Spielman said: "We have all those charts and looked at them. But when the game is going, you still have to go with what your gut instinct is."
New Orleans
Saints
The Saints might be in the "Skeptics" camp overall, but they don't show the hostility to analytics principles that some NFL teams do.
Coach Asshole Face is relatively aggressive on fourth down -- although no one stat is the whole story, the Saints have more fourth-down offensive snaps (34) than any other team with a winning record over the past two seasons. Also, Payton's onside kick call in Super Bowl XLIV will go down in NFL history. But the evidence suggests Payton's decisions were inspired less by data than by his instincts and confidence in New Orleans' high-powered offense.
The Saints have become quite interested in technology and recently served as a beta test for Zebra's Beyond Gameday statistics that track exertion and movement via RFID technology during games. Payton has also spoken publicly on a number of occasions about the increased efficiency of digital film.
"Our ability to access certain cut-ups, statistical data has changed, and we have more of it and more readily available," Payton said. "And now it's a matter of looking and trying to put values on what we think is most important and making sure we're not running down a road with something that's not."
New York
Giants
Don't be misled by the age of the Giants' coach (Tom Coughlin is 68) or the franchise's general disposition toward tradition. A fair amount of activity is going on behind the scenes.
The Giants' hiring of performance manager Joe Danos underscores their commitment to tracking player health, from GPS technology through Catapult to consultations from sleep experts. They were also the first NFL team known to consult opponent analysis via Pro Football Focus to assist the work of director of football information Jon Berger.
Giants general manager Jerry Reese has downplayed the use of data in drafting and other football operations, telling the team's website in 2013: "We try to put the numbers in and see what the numbers say, but we put our eyes on players and see what our eyes say."
Still, the Giants waded into the advanced analytics field in the summer of 2014, hiring Connor Lewis to develop football analytics. Lewis' background was in ticket sales with the Tennessee Titans, and he is applying techniques used in business data tracking to the Giants' football side.
Pittsburgh
Steelers
The Steelers are among the NFL teams that use Catapult to track their players' exertion and conditioning during practice. This in itself represents a major step for an organization steeped in tradition. The Steelers have been one of the NFL's most successful franchises for several generations and believe it stems from a steady hand rather than quick steps to embrace a fad or the newest trend.
On a quiet and experimental level, the Steelers have also begun to develop statistical information that could be useful for player acquisition and game management. But it is not believed that the team's football leaders, general manager Kevin Colbert and coach Mike Tomlin, have embraced the concept.
In 2014, Steelers team president Art Rooney II told ESPN 970: "I think the computer research and all the information that can get stored, there is an ability now to call up more information, more quickly, which I think that every team going to want to take advantage of, and I think we're no exception."
St. Louis
Rams
Rams executive vice president/chief operating officer Kevin Demoff is an advocate of statistical analysis and has participated in the annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.
He has cited the 2012 trade that brought the Rams a bounty of draft picks from the Washington Redskins in exchange for the No. 2 overall pick as an exemplary case. The deal meant the Rams would have 12 first- or second-round picks on their roster under the favorable rookie scale. "Twelve of our best players will make less than $25 million combined in 2014," Demoff said.
Coach Jeff Fisher, while generally a traditionalist, is open-minded and is known to take a nontraditional approach to game management -- especially with fake punts deep in his own territory.
But general manager Les Snead, whose roots are in scouting, is more hostile to analytics. He has endorsed the anti-"Moneyball" book called "Scout's Honor" and has emphasized that teams must "feel" a player's talents more than measure them: "It's like if someone asks you to pick someone as a graduation speaker. Do you just go on his nice résumé or how well he can write and put words together on a sheet of paper? Well, those may be the metrics of the situation. But for me, before you pick that speaker, I want actually go hear him and feel him speak. You want to go to that room and get the feeling of how that room reacts when he talks. Does he move the crowd? If you're in the room, you can feel it, and then you can say, 'Yeah, now he's that guy!'"
NONBELIEVERS
New York
JETS
For the past six seasons, the Jets were built around the old-school sensibilities of Rex Ryan, with line coach Dave DeGuglielmo summing up the traditional mindset with a 2012 rant against analytics: "All of a sudden we're 'Moneyballing' offensive lineman," he said. "[The] world I live in isn't a fantasy world."
Ryan's departure does not herald a new approach to analytics. Team owner Woody Johnson has given no indication analytics will be incorporated into the Jets' football operations.
New GM Mike Maccagnan, whose background is as a scout and scouting director, has spent most of his NFL career with the Houston Texans, one of the least analytics-friendly organizations in the NFL. New coach Todd Bowles comes from the Arizona Cardinals, another organization that has done little with analytics. It's safe to say that bringing analytics to the Jets was not a priority in either hire.
San Diego
Chargers
Mike McCoy is one of the most traditional coaches in the NFL and appears to have no interest in using data, whether to assist with player health and safety or to manage game situations.
"I'm going to go with my gut decision on those things," McCoy said during the 2014 season. "No one on a piece of paper can tell me this is the right thing or the wrong thing to do. ... It's all about what you think is best, and what you think is best for your team at that time."
GM Tom Telesco emphasizes the importance of "good football decisions," based on instincts and "hard old-school scouting." Upon joining the Chargers in 2013, he indicated an openness to bringing stats to his evaluations. But his background is in scouting, and he cut his teeth in an Indianapolis Colts front office led by Bill Polian, who vocally opposes the use of analytics in football, especially in regard to personnel decisions.
Tennessee
Titans
The Titans are not into analytics. They have no chief data analyst and, more important, no advocate or endorsement for analytics from their football leaders.
When he was hired in 2014, coach Ken Whisenhunt gave an interview that resonated throughout the analytics community. Asked by a Nashville radio station whether he pays attention to analytics, he said "Not really," then added:
"f you get so wrapped up in analytics, sometimes you lose a feel for the game. And to me, there is an emotional side of the game and there is also a feel for the game. When you see a guy like [Frank] Wycheck make a one-handed catch in the back of the end zone with the guy draped all over him, how do you put an analytic on that? I mean, I respect it, I respect the fact that you can do studies and that you can put time in about it. But to me ... there is a lot of feel and emotion involved."
Washington
Redskins
The Redskins were named by source after source as the NFL team with the least interest in using analytics in football operations. Despite Washington's massive operation on the business side, there is no analytics chief on the football side.
That wasn't true for seven weeks in 2006, when the Redskins hired Jeff Dominitz to produce statistical analysis. But then-coach Joe Gibbs indicated his disdain for analytics, saying, "We're still about people here." Soon Dominitz was gone.
The recent five-year GM tenure of Bruce Allen was likewise not an era of analytics for Washington, and there are no signs that will change anytime soon with Allen as team president. New GM Scot McCloughan comes from San Francisco, a team close to the front edge of analytics usage in the NFL, but he has a scouting background and has given no indications of an analytics-friendly approach.
With Daniel Snyder as owner since 1999, Washington has become known for inefficient spending, consistently handing out some of the worst contrasts in the NFL. The Skins are so disengaged from the advanced stats movement that even local legend Tony Kornheiser, no stathead himself, recently pleaded with them to try analytics to turn around a franchise that's gone 7-25 the past two seasons.
Kevin Seifert
ESPN's national NFL writer Kevin Seifert is the author of NFL Nation's "Inside Slant" blog on issues and innovations in the NFL. He can be reached at @SeifertESPN.
