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http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...-nfc-west-champ-wont-have-10-wins-eli-a-hofer
In five of the last six seasons, at least one division champ has won fewer than 10 games:
2010 NFC West champs: Seahawks (7-9)
2011 NFC East champs: Giants (9-7)
2013 NFC North champs: Packers (8-7-1)
2014 NFC South champs: Panthers (7-8-1)
2015 AFC South champs: Texans (9-7)
2015 NFC East champs: 'Skins (9-7)
That's what you call a trend, and it's one that figures to continue as long as the NFL schedule makers stick with the rotating divisions model (in which each division plays one of the three other divisions within it's conference and one of the four divisions in the opposing conference). So which division will slide this year? Well, if you assume everyone's gotta take their turn at the bottom, then time is up for the AFC West or AFC East or AFC North. Until Tom Brady retires, though, it's hard to imagine the Patriots not winning at least 10 games.
The AFC North is less of a lock, but a season's worth of relative good luck in avoiding injuries for either Pittsburgh or Baltimore oughta be enough to ensure at least one team gets to double-digit wins. (You can, however, talk me into an 8-8 Bengals' season. We'll get to that in a bit.)
Again, one of the biggest factors in determining why a division collectively moves up or down is based on which other two divisions they'll be playing. That said, here's a look at the where the big wheel of rotating schedules has landed here in 2016:
» AFC East vs. AFC North and NFC West
» AFC North vs. AFC East and NFC East
» AFC South vs. AFC West and NFC North
» AFC West vs. AFC South and NFC South
» NFC East vs. NFC North and AFC North
» NFC North vs. NFC East and AFC South
» NFC South vs. NFC West and AFC West
» NFC West vs. NFC South and AFC East
Seems to me that the NFC East got the short straw, but I'm also anticipating better seasons from the Cowboys and Giants thanks, respectively, to improved health and a talent infusion via free agency. Besides, building on the recent trend we laid out above, the previous seasons' bad divisions generally move up the following year:
2011 NFC West champs: Niners (13-3)
2012 NFC East champs: 'Skins (10-6)
2014 NFC North champs: Packers (12-4)
2015 NFC South champs: Panthers (15-1)
Based on this trend, the 2016 NFC East and the AFC South champs should both exceed the nine-game win totals of their divisions' 2015 victors.
What about the NFC North? Well, the headline there feels like the return of Jordy Nelson, whose absence last year proved his value to the Packers. Between him, a slimmed-down Eddie Lacy, and the emerging D in Minnesota, it's hard to conceive of a big step backwards for the division. (Oh, and don't sleep on those Lions: If there was ever an NFL candidate for Bill Simmons' "Ewing Theory," the Megatron-less Staffords are it.)
Who's left? Look west. No, not the AFC West. You've no doubt heard at least a few optimistic types declare the Raiders as "back" (as in: ready to win the division right now), but while they probably need another season of polish before they get up to full speed, they're undeniably headed in the right direction. The 2015 Chiefs survived the loss of Jamaal Charles to follow the lead of most Andy Reid-coached teams by making the postseason ... and the 2016 Chiefs will survive possibly having to play the whole year without Justin Houston. (Thanks, Dee Ford!) Even the defending champs -- right now the butt of jokes with Mark Sanchez installed as their starting QB -- oughta be just fine. Before you bury Denver, just think about how atrocious Peyton was during its Super Bowl run. Could the Sanchise really be any worse?
No, the pick here is the ... NFC West.
I know, I know, I'm crazy and shouldn't be allowed to have a job, and I'm stupid and should have a wall built around me and I should have to pay for it. (Trust me, I'm already anticipating dozens of "Your a idiot" tweets.)
But hear me out: First off, having to play the AFC East and NFC South is a sneaky tough draw. Pats plus Jets plus Bills equals no joke ... and neither are the Panthers (right, Seattle and Arizona?).
Also don't forget the 10-6 Seahawks didn't right their ship 'til late November last year, when they survived a shootout against Pittsburgh but Jimmy Graham's knee didn't. Coincidence? Up to that point in 2015, the conversation focused on the team's inability to integrate Drew Brees' former fave into the offense. You convinced that little pigskin melodrama has been resolved by the passage of time? Meantime, Tom Cable -- who deserves heaps of credit for what he's already done with that patchwork O-line -- will have to work late into the night at the sweat shop to stitch something together with what threadbare assets remain from the Super Bowl units. (Also, Thomas Rawls might be OK, but he's a major step back from his chatty predecessor.)
Then there are the Cardinals, of whom I'm a fan thanks to good guys like Bruce Arians, Calais Campbell, Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu. Listen, the roster still looks mighty, but let's not forget where things left off for them in January, even if Carson Palmer wants us to. "You can't let one game define you. You just have to move on." No, Carson, you have to move on. But what evidence, exactly, is there to prove your tepid-to-terrible close to last season (including a blowout loss at home to Seattle, the fortuitous win against the Jeff Janis-led Packers, and that shaming in Carolina) isn't who you really are?
In five of the last six seasons, at least one division champ has won fewer than 10 games:
2010 NFC West champs: Seahawks (7-9)
2011 NFC East champs: Giants (9-7)
2013 NFC North champs: Packers (8-7-1)
2014 NFC South champs: Panthers (7-8-1)
2015 AFC South champs: Texans (9-7)
2015 NFC East champs: 'Skins (9-7)
That's what you call a trend, and it's one that figures to continue as long as the NFL schedule makers stick with the rotating divisions model (in which each division plays one of the three other divisions within it's conference and one of the four divisions in the opposing conference). So which division will slide this year? Well, if you assume everyone's gotta take their turn at the bottom, then time is up for the AFC West or AFC East or AFC North. Until Tom Brady retires, though, it's hard to imagine the Patriots not winning at least 10 games.
The AFC North is less of a lock, but a season's worth of relative good luck in avoiding injuries for either Pittsburgh or Baltimore oughta be enough to ensure at least one team gets to double-digit wins. (You can, however, talk me into an 8-8 Bengals' season. We'll get to that in a bit.)
Again, one of the biggest factors in determining why a division collectively moves up or down is based on which other two divisions they'll be playing. That said, here's a look at the where the big wheel of rotating schedules has landed here in 2016:
» AFC East vs. AFC North and NFC West
» AFC North vs. AFC East and NFC East
» AFC South vs. AFC West and NFC North
» AFC West vs. AFC South and NFC South
» NFC East vs. NFC North and AFC North
» NFC North vs. NFC East and AFC South
» NFC South vs. NFC West and AFC West
» NFC West vs. NFC South and AFC East
Seems to me that the NFC East got the short straw, but I'm also anticipating better seasons from the Cowboys and Giants thanks, respectively, to improved health and a talent infusion via free agency. Besides, building on the recent trend we laid out above, the previous seasons' bad divisions generally move up the following year:
2011 NFC West champs: Niners (13-3)
2012 NFC East champs: 'Skins (10-6)
2014 NFC North champs: Packers (12-4)
2015 NFC South champs: Panthers (15-1)
Based on this trend, the 2016 NFC East and the AFC South champs should both exceed the nine-game win totals of their divisions' 2015 victors.
What about the NFC North? Well, the headline there feels like the return of Jordy Nelson, whose absence last year proved his value to the Packers. Between him, a slimmed-down Eddie Lacy, and the emerging D in Minnesota, it's hard to conceive of a big step backwards for the division. (Oh, and don't sleep on those Lions: If there was ever an NFL candidate for Bill Simmons' "Ewing Theory," the Megatron-less Staffords are it.)
Who's left? Look west. No, not the AFC West. You've no doubt heard at least a few optimistic types declare the Raiders as "back" (as in: ready to win the division right now), but while they probably need another season of polish before they get up to full speed, they're undeniably headed in the right direction. The 2015 Chiefs survived the loss of Jamaal Charles to follow the lead of most Andy Reid-coached teams by making the postseason ... and the 2016 Chiefs will survive possibly having to play the whole year without Justin Houston. (Thanks, Dee Ford!) Even the defending champs -- right now the butt of jokes with Mark Sanchez installed as their starting QB -- oughta be just fine. Before you bury Denver, just think about how atrocious Peyton was during its Super Bowl run. Could the Sanchise really be any worse?
No, the pick here is the ... NFC West.
I know, I know, I'm crazy and shouldn't be allowed to have a job, and I'm stupid and should have a wall built around me and I should have to pay for it. (Trust me, I'm already anticipating dozens of "Your a idiot" tweets.)
But hear me out: First off, having to play the AFC East and NFC South is a sneaky tough draw. Pats plus Jets plus Bills equals no joke ... and neither are the Panthers (right, Seattle and Arizona?).
Also don't forget the 10-6 Seahawks didn't right their ship 'til late November last year, when they survived a shootout against Pittsburgh but Jimmy Graham's knee didn't. Coincidence? Up to that point in 2015, the conversation focused on the team's inability to integrate Drew Brees' former fave into the offense. You convinced that little pigskin melodrama has been resolved by the passage of time? Meantime, Tom Cable -- who deserves heaps of credit for what he's already done with that patchwork O-line -- will have to work late into the night at the sweat shop to stitch something together with what threadbare assets remain from the Super Bowl units. (Also, Thomas Rawls might be OK, but he's a major step back from his chatty predecessor.)
Then there are the Cardinals, of whom I'm a fan thanks to good guys like Bruce Arians, Calais Campbell, Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu. Listen, the roster still looks mighty, but let's not forget where things left off for them in January, even if Carson Palmer wants us to. "You can't let one game define you. You just have to move on." No, Carson, you have to move on. But what evidence, exactly, is there to prove your tepid-to-terrible close to last season (including a blowout loss at home to Seattle, the fortuitous win against the Jeff Janis-led Packers, and that shaming in Carolina) isn't who you really are?
