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NFC Championship Game Prediction: San Francisco and Philadelphia Battle for a Spot in the Super Bowl
Our NFL experts predict, pick and preview the San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles NFC Championship Game, with kickoff time, TV channel and spread.
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NFC Championship Game: San Francisco and Philadelphia Battle for a Spot in the Super Bowl
The San Francisco 49ers lost not one, but two starting quarterbacks throughout the course of the 2022 NFL season. The Philadelphia Eagles found themselves floundering at the end of the year, losing their own starting quarterback to an injury and finishing 1-2 while critics wondered if they'd flame out as another top seed who failed to make the NFC Championship Game.They thought wrong.
Both teams, the cream of the crop in the NFC all season, come into this Championship Sunday at the top of their games. The Eagles mauled the New York Giants in their divisional playoff matchup, 38-7, never flinching from the opening kickoff. Jalen Hurts, coming off a shoulder injury, played mistake-free football and looked every bit as healthy as he did a month earlier.
Now, San Francisco comes to town riding a 12-game winning streak built on exceptional defense and the success of their third starting QB, Brock Purdy. A 19-12 win over Dallas last weekend in the Divisional Round was built off the NFL's top-ranked defense, the 49ers forcing the Cowboys into two interceptions and just 76 yards on the ground.
Bright young coaching defines these two teams, second-year Eagles head man Nick Sirianni searching for his first Super Bowl appearance against the 49ers' Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan has had his heart broken twice in the big game, losing as the 49ers' head coach to Kansas City three years ago while serving as the Falcons' offensive coordinator during Tom Brady's infamous Super Bowl comeback in 2017.
His offensive scheme, like Sirianni's, has put the team on the precipice of getting there.
"It fits like a puzzle when it's right," 49ers' run game coordinator/offensive line coach Chris Foerster said during these playoffs. "It all ties together. It's a cool process."
For Sirianni, his coaching style has become the embodiment of Philadelphia, revered in this city less than two years after Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson left it. He earns accolades for his fiery sideline support of his team, whether it's going after the refs or openly defending defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon to criticism from a local radio station. (Keep in mind he did that after the Divisional Round win, passion mixed in with celebration.)
Both San Francisco and Philadelphia have the talent to win the Super Bowl. But just one will get a chance to play in it.
Who will it be?
NFC Championship Game: San Francisco (13-4) at Philadelphia (14-3)
Kickoff: Sunday, Jan. 29 at 3 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Live Stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
Spread: Eagles -2.5
Tickets: As low as $645 on SITickets.com*
Three Things to Watch
1. Can Brock Purdy keep it going?
A dominant game from the 49ers' defense last week against the Cowboys covered up an average game by Purdy. Yes, when it mattered, the 2022 NFL Draft's Mr. Irrelevant made all the right throws, including two big ones to George Kittle in the fourth quarter that helped eat up some clock. But Purdy's line was pedestrian by his standards: 19-for-29 for 214 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. It was the first time he didn't throw for a score as the starter while his passer rating (87.4) was his career low for a full game played.
Can the Eagles shut Purdy down? They're hoping prized cornerback Avonte Maddox makes his return Sunday after missing three games with a toe injury. A unit that had 17 interceptions during the regular season, trailing only San Francisco in the NFC, managed just one in last weekend's win over the Giants in his absence. The defense plans to change that Sunday by getting aggressive, knowing history is on their side: no rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl game.
The Eagles themselves have a little inside knowledge of what damage Purdy can do. When Jalen Hurts was at Oklahoma, he and Purdy engaged in a phenomenal back-and-forth affair. In November 2019, Hurts' Sooners jumped out to a 42-21 lead before Purdy led his Iowa State Cyclones roaring back during the fourth quarter. A failed two-point conversion in the final minute left them just short, 42-41, with Oklahoma forced to breathe a sigh of relief.
"I have a lot of respect for him," Hurts said of Purdy. "He's always been a really good player, has a lot of moxie. He makes plays. And he's been doing that since college, so there's no surprise when he was given this opportunity, to see the success he's having now."
The Eagles were successful last week against Daniel Jones by limiting his time to throw and getting through their offensive line; their five sacks are the most by any team this NFL postseason except Miami. It's one area they had a leg up on the 49ers' defense this season, and putting pressure on Purdy is crucial considering that offense has so many speedy weapons, from running back Christian McCaffrey to Kittle to wide receiver Deebo Samuel.
Ultimately, this defense will be the toughest Purdy has faced all season. Can he stand up to the pressure and make history?
2. Philadelphia offense vs. 49ers' defense
The Eagles' offense was exceptional last week in every phase of the game. They piled up 268 yards rushing, the second-highest total in the team's postseason history, with change-of-pace back Kenneth Gainwell leading the charge. His 112 rushing yards eclipsed even Eagles featured back Miles Sanders (90 yards) and Hurts as this team showed their speed will be unlike any the 49ers have faced this season.
But the 49ers' run defense won't back down. Allowing an NFL-best 77.1 yards a game this season, they limited the Cowboys to just those 76 yards on the ground, a team that was completely ineffective after running back Tony Pollard got hurt midway through. They know what a key it is to stop this Eagles ground game.
"When you take away the run game and you don't have to be too risky in your coverages," head coach Kyle Shanahan said after the Cowboys win, "It makes it hard to get explosives."
By explosives, Shanahan could refer to the Eagles' speedy outside receivers in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Burning offenses with deep passes all season, those throws become impossible if Hurts doesn't have the time (don't forget about Nick Bosa and his league-leading 18.5 sacks) and Sanders gets stuffed at the line of scrimmage. It's simple as that.
3. Taking care of the football
Both these teams excel at causing takeaways. San Francisco ended the regular season with an NFL-best plus-13 turnover margin, and their 30 takeaways ranked second in the NFL. Philadelphia slotted in right behind, posting a plus-eight turnover margin (third) and 27 takeaways which ranked tied for fourth in the league.
In these playoff games, all it takes is just one mistake to change the momentum. During the Giants game, the Eagles' defense picked off Jones in their second possession, then drove the ball down the field and made it 14-0. With the Giants on the road, you could see the air let out of the balloon after that.
On the 49ers' side, it was a Dak Prescott interception just before halftime that tilted the momentum when the Cowboys were about to make it 13-6. Instead, the resulting drive for a field goal left the 49ers up 9-6 at halftime; they never gave up the lead the rest of the game.
A week earlier, playing Seattle, the game turned on a strip sack and fumble deep in 49ers territory where Geno Smith was poised to give the Seahawks the lead. From that point on, the 49ers outscored Seattle 18-6 and cruised to an easy win.
For the Eagles, the path to victory couldn't be clearer. A team that takes care of the football has seen nine of their 19 turnovers occur during their three losses. San Francisco had just 17 giveaways total, the third fewest in the NFL, and have coughed up the ball just six times during their 12-game winning streak. That's an exceptional run of 0.5 turnovers per game.
Which defense will wind up causing a fateful mistake?
Final Analysis
Despite two incredible defenses, I do expect the offenses to take center stage as we enter the fourth quarter and stamina takes over. The question is: if we get into a shootout, will Purdy be able to keep up with Hurts down the stretch?
Considering it's the potential NFL MVP, you have to put your money on Hurts to come through. But Purdy has proven the doubters wrong, each and every time in the past two months. A victory would give him the keys to the starting role in San Francisco long-term.
I'll go with the Eagles in a squeaker. But it's one of the most evenly-matched NFC Championship Games we've seen in years.
Prediction: Philadelphia 27, San Francisco 24
