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Bowl season is over, the deadline for eligible non-seniors to declare for the 2013 NFL draft has passed, and three college all-star games have come and gone. All of this has led to plenty of shuffling in my latest ranking of the top 32 overall prospects.
Four players debut this week, and other big names are rising and falling quickly.
A pair of offensive tackles are on the rise -- one all the way into the top five -- after strong showings at the Senior Bowl, where an under-the-radar cornerback also flashed and helped get himself into the top 32. Finally, a raw but gifted offensive lineman also makes the list for the first time.
Notre Dame ILB Manti Te'o has taken a tumble, although not for the reasons you might expect, while another inside linebacker is creating buzz and is now inside the top 32.
Finally, USC QB Matt Barkley has finally fallen off the list after he had an up-and-down senior season and his college career ended prematurely because of a shoulder injury.
Here is a look at the entire list, with draft-eligible non-seniors noted with an asterisk:
1. Star LotuleleiDT6-3320
Analysis: Lotulelei is the most complete defensive lineman in the class in terms of physical tools. He dominates interior offensive linemen with his blend of quickness and power. He shows strong hands, nimble feet and the ability to discard blockers quickly, and he has impressive lateral range. Lotulelei needs some polish as a pass-rusher, but his natural gifts are clearly a cut above. Previously: 1
2. Luke Joeckel*OT6-5¾306
Analysis: Joeckel fared well against the likes of Alabama and LSU this season. His balance and ability to recover in pass protection stand out, and he takes good angles and is able to get to the second level in the run game. Previously: 4
3. Chance WarmackOG6-2\325
Analysis: Warmack is a big, strong, nasty lineman with good smarts and athleticism. He shows awareness, is an easy mover in pass protection and has power as a run-blocker. The best guard I've evaluated in the past decade, Warmack is the rare interior lineman worthy of a top-10 overall pick. Previously: 3
4. Jarvis Jones*OLB6-2242
Analysis: Jones has been a steady performer on a defense loaded with NFL prospects. He is a good overall athlete and top-notch pass-rusher, has impressive range in pass coverage and against the run, and can line up all over the defensive formation. He's also a playmaker who closes on quarterbacks and ball carriers and looks to separate them from the ball. Durability concerns will remain a concern, but Jones is still a great player. Previously: 6
5. Eric FisherOT6-7[297
Analysis: Fisher stood out at the Senior Bowl with has impressive length, nimble feet and balance in pass protection. He shows good footwork and the ability to hit moving targets when pulling, and appears to have the power to create movement at the point of attack. He could anchor more effectively at times, but he clearly has the skill set to thrive at left tackle in the NFL. Previously: 20
6. Damontre Moore*DE6-4248
Analysis: He is a versatile prospect who can play outside linebacker in a 3-4, right or left end in a 4-3 and even move inside to rush the passer from the interior. Moore is quick and fluid as a pass-rusher, is able to hold up against the run and plays hard.
Previously: 2
7. Kenny Vaccaro S6-0½ 210
Analysis: The more tape I watch, the more I'm blown away by Vaccaro's athleticism and fluidity. He is tough against the run, but he has rare movement skills for a safety and can effectively function as a third cornerback when necessary. With today's NFL offenses spreading the field so often with multiple-receiver sets, that versatility is a valuable trait. Previously: 16
8. Barkevious Mingo* DE6-5240
Analysis: Mingo's production (8.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks) did not live up to expectations in 2012, but he was still disruptive at times. His long frame, elite first step and outstanding speed for his size make him a major weapon off the edge and give him plenty of upside. He also has great range and closing burst against the run. Previously: 5
9. Dee Milliner* CB6-0¾197
Analysis: Milliner's instincts, recognition skills and discipline stand out, and he is reliable in run support. He's not elite in man coverage but is excellent in zone, and his good top-end speed and short-area quickness help make him the clear No. 1 corner on the board.
Previously: 11
10. Bjoern Werner* DE6-4255
Analysis: Werner burst onto the scene early in the season with improved pass-rush skills that complement his ability to set the edge against the run. His production tailed off some late in the year, but Werner's quickness and strong hands are impressive, and he can convert speed to power when rushing the passer. Previously: 8
11. Sylvester Williams DT6-2320
Analysis: Williams' standout showing at the Senior Bowl backed up a strong regular season, when he played faster than ever after shedding weight and getting fully healthy. He has the power to press blockers into the backfield, pop at the point of attack as a tackler, and instincts and quick hands to get off blocks. Previously: 10
12. Dion Jordan DE6-6⅛239
Analysis: Jordan dealt with a nagging shoulder injury late in the season, but he is long and athletic and has explosive upper-body power despite his lean frame. He can rush the passer from a two- or three-point stance, holds up in space and has the versatility to play multiple roles along the front seven. Previously: 12
13. Sharrif Floyd* DT6-3298
Analysis: Floyd lined up at end in 2011, but truly thrived after moving inside to tackle in 2012. He moves well and is comfortable in tight spaces, and Floyd has made a huge improvement in terms of upper-body power and how he uses it to jar blockers. He is able to locate the ball, shed blockers and flow to the ball as quickly as any defensive tackle in this year's class. Previously: 24
14. Alec Ogletree* ILB6-3237
Analysis: Ogletree is a raw prospect in terms of instincts, but he is a freakish athlete who chases plays from sideline to sideline and shows good potential as a pass-rusher. He needs to get more stout at the point of attack, though, and there are some character flags. Previously: 15
15. Jonathan Cooper OG6-3320
Analysis: Cooper's quickness, mobility, explosive power, good feet and balance all jump out on film. He is the best blocker in the class in space, shows awareness in pass protection and plays with an edge. He's a good fit in a zone-blocking scheme, and Cooper is making a solid case as an early first-round pick. Previously: 14
16. Lane Johnson OT6-6305
Analysis: Johnson is shooting up the board after a strong week at the Senior Bowl and more in-depth film study. His experience on the offensive line is limited -- he started his career as a junior college quarterback, then played tight end and defensive end early in his career at OU -- but Johnson has the athleticism and movement to be a good starting left tackle in the NFL. He needs to get stronger and improve his hand placement, but Johnson's game tape shows a first-round talent.
Previously: NR
17. Manti Te'oILB6-1248
Analysis: Te'o sliding down the board has nothing to do with the recent off-field issues he has dealt with and everything to do with questions arising from film study and other inside linebackers moving up. We need to further evaluate his movement skills before solidifying his grade. Previously: 7
18. Sheldon Richardson DT6-2⅞290
Analysis: Richardson was clearly the best player on a bad Missouri defense, and he played hard despite additional attention from offense and his team's overall struggles. Richardson can penetrate with a quick first step and has excellent straight-line speed, good range and power as a bull rusher. Previously: 21
19. Johnathan Jenkins DT6-4⅛363
Analysis: A massive two-gap nose tackle with a good combination of size, strength and short-area quickness to control the inside and occasionally contribute as a pass-rusher. Jenkins' range is limited, but he is an asset as an interior plugger. Previously: 17
20. Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB6-0⅜ 189
Analysis: I'm impressed with Wreh-Wilson's overall skill set after additional film work and a strong week at the Senior Bowl. He plays with balance and body control in man coverage, and he supports the run effectively. Previously: NR
21. Geno Smith QB6-2¾208
Analysis: Smith's stock took a hit late in the season because of inconsistency and some poor decisions. When he's at his best, though, Smith's confidence, footwork and mechanics all stand out, and that's what puts him atop this year's quarterback class. Previously: 23
22. Kawann Short DT6-3⅛325
Analysis: Short showed more consistency, better effort and impressive production in 2012. He displayed explosiveness and the ability to penetrate and disrupt along the interior, giving himself a chance to be in the first-round mix. Previously: 27
23. Ezekiel Ansah DE6-6273
Analysis: Ansah is a raw prospect, and his rare combination of size, speed and athleticism failed to show up during Senior Bowl practices. He flashed his skills during the game, though, and his hand use and discipline improved over the course of the season. He also showed the versatility to line up at nose tackle, end and outside linebacker in BYU's 3-4 scheme. Previously: 19
24. Johnathan Hankins* DT6-3335
Analysis: Hankins shows the size and strength to occupy multiple blockers against the run and doesn't back down at the point of attack, and he has a top-20 skill set. He's falling, though, because the demand for a two-gap run-stuffer is simply not as great as it used to be in the NFL. Previously: 9
25. Cordarrelle Patterson* WR6-3 205
Analysis: Patterson, who has played one season with the Volunteers after arriving from junior college, has scored touchdowns four ways: receiving, rushing, punt return and kickoff return. He averaged 27.7 yards on kickoff returns and had a school-record 1,858 all-purpose yards this season. He's raw as a route-runner and in terms of reading coverages, but his physical skills are undeniable. Previously: 30
26. Sam Montgomery* DE6-4245
Analysis: Montgomery is not as athletic as his teammate Mingo, but his power as a pass-rusher stands out, and he holds the point well against the run. Previously: 16
27. Keenan Allen* WR6-3206
Analysis: Allen was consistently productive during the regular season thanks to a good combination of size and speed, excellent hands and solid body control. He lacks the elite speed to run past NFL defenders, but his size and strength allow him to win one-on-one battles down the field. Previously: 28
28. Johnthan Banks CB6-2⅛185
Analysis: A tall corner with good length, Banks has quick feet and is at his best in press coverage. He flashes good ball skills and some punt-return ability, and he is active and willing in run support. Previously: 27
29. Kyle Long OG6-6⅞311
Analysis: Long is inexperienced, but his physical tools are as good as those of any other lineman in the class. He has good length, moves well, shows some inline power and has played both guard and tackle. He needs to improve his awareness and instincts, but that should come with more reps. Previously: NR
30. Kevin Minter* ILB6-2244
Analysis: He could get off blocks more quickly at times, but Minter is a tackling machine who's capable of playing from sideline to sideline. His overall talent level is that of a first-rounder, but he might slide into the second with the likes of Ogletree and Te'o ranking just ahead of him at inside linebacker. Previously: NR
31. Zach Ertz* TE6-6249
Analysis: Ertz showed off his ball skills and body control in the Cardinal's upset win over Oregon, coming down with a jump ball in the back of the end zone for the game-tying touchdown late in regulation. He's a solid route-runner who can create mismatches with his size and separates from coverage, shows speed to stretch the seam and is an effective wall-off blocker. Previously: 29
32. Justin Hunter* WR6-4205
Analysis: Hunter's smooth routes and body control on tape earned him a top-10 grade going into the season, but his production didn't match his potential and his ball skills were inconsistent. He appears to be fully recovered from a torn ACL suffered in 2011 and his physical tools are impressive, but he needs to be more consistent. Previously: 25
Out of the rankings: Auburn DE Corey Lemonier, Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert, USC QB Matt Barkley, Michigan OT Taylor Lewan (returned to school)
Bowl season is over, the deadline for eligible non-seniors to declare for the 2013 NFL draft has passed, and three college all-star games have come and gone. All of this has led to plenty of shuffling in my latest ranking of the top 32 overall prospects.
Four players debut this week, and other big names are rising and falling quickly.
A pair of offensive tackles are on the rise -- one all the way into the top five -- after strong showings at the Senior Bowl, where an under-the-radar cornerback also flashed and helped get himself into the top 32. Finally, a raw but gifted offensive lineman also makes the list for the first time.
Notre Dame ILB Manti Te'o has taken a tumble, although not for the reasons you might expect, while another inside linebacker is creating buzz and is now inside the top 32.
Finally, USC QB Matt Barkley has finally fallen off the list after he had an up-and-down senior season and his college career ended prematurely because of a shoulder injury.
Here is a look at the entire list, with draft-eligible non-seniors noted with an asterisk:
1. Star LotuleleiDT6-3320
Analysis: Lotulelei is the most complete defensive lineman in the class in terms of physical tools. He dominates interior offensive linemen with his blend of quickness and power. He shows strong hands, nimble feet and the ability to discard blockers quickly, and he has impressive lateral range. Lotulelei needs some polish as a pass-rusher, but his natural gifts are clearly a cut above. Previously: 1
2. Luke Joeckel*OT6-5¾306
Analysis: Joeckel fared well against the likes of Alabama and LSU this season. His balance and ability to recover in pass protection stand out, and he takes good angles and is able to get to the second level in the run game. Previously: 4
3. Chance WarmackOG6-2\325
Analysis: Warmack is a big, strong, nasty lineman with good smarts and athleticism. He shows awareness, is an easy mover in pass protection and has power as a run-blocker. The best guard I've evaluated in the past decade, Warmack is the rare interior lineman worthy of a top-10 overall pick. Previously: 3
4. Jarvis Jones*OLB6-2242
Analysis: Jones has been a steady performer on a defense loaded with NFL prospects. He is a good overall athlete and top-notch pass-rusher, has impressive range in pass coverage and against the run, and can line up all over the defensive formation. He's also a playmaker who closes on quarterbacks and ball carriers and looks to separate them from the ball. Durability concerns will remain a concern, but Jones is still a great player. Previously: 6
5. Eric FisherOT6-7[297
Analysis: Fisher stood out at the Senior Bowl with has impressive length, nimble feet and balance in pass protection. He shows good footwork and the ability to hit moving targets when pulling, and appears to have the power to create movement at the point of attack. He could anchor more effectively at times, but he clearly has the skill set to thrive at left tackle in the NFL. Previously: 20
6. Damontre Moore*DE6-4248
Analysis: He is a versatile prospect who can play outside linebacker in a 3-4, right or left end in a 4-3 and even move inside to rush the passer from the interior. Moore is quick and fluid as a pass-rusher, is able to hold up against the run and plays hard.
Previously: 2
7. Kenny Vaccaro S6-0½ 210
Analysis: The more tape I watch, the more I'm blown away by Vaccaro's athleticism and fluidity. He is tough against the run, but he has rare movement skills for a safety and can effectively function as a third cornerback when necessary. With today's NFL offenses spreading the field so often with multiple-receiver sets, that versatility is a valuable trait. Previously: 16
8. Barkevious Mingo* DE6-5240
Analysis: Mingo's production (8.5 TFL, 4.5 sacks) did not live up to expectations in 2012, but he was still disruptive at times. His long frame, elite first step and outstanding speed for his size make him a major weapon off the edge and give him plenty of upside. He also has great range and closing burst against the run. Previously: 5
9. Dee Milliner* CB6-0¾197
Analysis: Milliner's instincts, recognition skills and discipline stand out, and he is reliable in run support. He's not elite in man coverage but is excellent in zone, and his good top-end speed and short-area quickness help make him the clear No. 1 corner on the board.
Previously: 11
10. Bjoern Werner* DE6-4255
Analysis: Werner burst onto the scene early in the season with improved pass-rush skills that complement his ability to set the edge against the run. His production tailed off some late in the year, but Werner's quickness and strong hands are impressive, and he can convert speed to power when rushing the passer. Previously: 8
11. Sylvester Williams DT6-2320
Analysis: Williams' standout showing at the Senior Bowl backed up a strong regular season, when he played faster than ever after shedding weight and getting fully healthy. He has the power to press blockers into the backfield, pop at the point of attack as a tackler, and instincts and quick hands to get off blocks. Previously: 10
12. Dion Jordan DE6-6⅛239
Analysis: Jordan dealt with a nagging shoulder injury late in the season, but he is long and athletic and has explosive upper-body power despite his lean frame. He can rush the passer from a two- or three-point stance, holds up in space and has the versatility to play multiple roles along the front seven. Previously: 12
13. Sharrif Floyd* DT6-3298
Analysis: Floyd lined up at end in 2011, but truly thrived after moving inside to tackle in 2012. He moves well and is comfortable in tight spaces, and Floyd has made a huge improvement in terms of upper-body power and how he uses it to jar blockers. He is able to locate the ball, shed blockers and flow to the ball as quickly as any defensive tackle in this year's class. Previously: 24
14. Alec Ogletree* ILB6-3237
Analysis: Ogletree is a raw prospect in terms of instincts, but he is a freakish athlete who chases plays from sideline to sideline and shows good potential as a pass-rusher. He needs to get more stout at the point of attack, though, and there are some character flags. Previously: 15
15. Jonathan Cooper OG6-3320
Analysis: Cooper's quickness, mobility, explosive power, good feet and balance all jump out on film. He is the best blocker in the class in space, shows awareness in pass protection and plays with an edge. He's a good fit in a zone-blocking scheme, and Cooper is making a solid case as an early first-round pick. Previously: 14
16. Lane Johnson OT6-6305
Analysis: Johnson is shooting up the board after a strong week at the Senior Bowl and more in-depth film study. His experience on the offensive line is limited -- he started his career as a junior college quarterback, then played tight end and defensive end early in his career at OU -- but Johnson has the athleticism and movement to be a good starting left tackle in the NFL. He needs to get stronger and improve his hand placement, but Johnson's game tape shows a first-round talent.
Previously: NR
17. Manti Te'oILB6-1248
Analysis: Te'o sliding down the board has nothing to do with the recent off-field issues he has dealt with and everything to do with questions arising from film study and other inside linebackers moving up. We need to further evaluate his movement skills before solidifying his grade. Previously: 7
18. Sheldon Richardson DT6-2⅞290
Analysis: Richardson was clearly the best player on a bad Missouri defense, and he played hard despite additional attention from offense and his team's overall struggles. Richardson can penetrate with a quick first step and has excellent straight-line speed, good range and power as a bull rusher. Previously: 21
19. Johnathan Jenkins DT6-4⅛363
Analysis: A massive two-gap nose tackle with a good combination of size, strength and short-area quickness to control the inside and occasionally contribute as a pass-rusher. Jenkins' range is limited, but he is an asset as an interior plugger. Previously: 17
20. Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB6-0⅜ 189
Analysis: I'm impressed with Wreh-Wilson's overall skill set after additional film work and a strong week at the Senior Bowl. He plays with balance and body control in man coverage, and he supports the run effectively. Previously: NR
21. Geno Smith QB6-2¾208
Analysis: Smith's stock took a hit late in the season because of inconsistency and some poor decisions. When he's at his best, though, Smith's confidence, footwork and mechanics all stand out, and that's what puts him atop this year's quarterback class. Previously: 23
22. Kawann Short DT6-3⅛325
Analysis: Short showed more consistency, better effort and impressive production in 2012. He displayed explosiveness and the ability to penetrate and disrupt along the interior, giving himself a chance to be in the first-round mix. Previously: 27
23. Ezekiel Ansah DE6-6273
Analysis: Ansah is a raw prospect, and his rare combination of size, speed and athleticism failed to show up during Senior Bowl practices. He flashed his skills during the game, though, and his hand use and discipline improved over the course of the season. He also showed the versatility to line up at nose tackle, end and outside linebacker in BYU's 3-4 scheme. Previously: 19
24. Johnathan Hankins* DT6-3335
Analysis: Hankins shows the size and strength to occupy multiple blockers against the run and doesn't back down at the point of attack, and he has a top-20 skill set. He's falling, though, because the demand for a two-gap run-stuffer is simply not as great as it used to be in the NFL. Previously: 9
25. Cordarrelle Patterson* WR6-3 205
Analysis: Patterson, who has played one season with the Volunteers after arriving from junior college, has scored touchdowns four ways: receiving, rushing, punt return and kickoff return. He averaged 27.7 yards on kickoff returns and had a school-record 1,858 all-purpose yards this season. He's raw as a route-runner and in terms of reading coverages, but his physical skills are undeniable. Previously: 30
26. Sam Montgomery* DE6-4245
Analysis: Montgomery is not as athletic as his teammate Mingo, but his power as a pass-rusher stands out, and he holds the point well against the run. Previously: 16
27. Keenan Allen* WR6-3206
Analysis: Allen was consistently productive during the regular season thanks to a good combination of size and speed, excellent hands and solid body control. He lacks the elite speed to run past NFL defenders, but his size and strength allow him to win one-on-one battles down the field. Previously: 28
28. Johnthan Banks CB6-2⅛185
Analysis: A tall corner with good length, Banks has quick feet and is at his best in press coverage. He flashes good ball skills and some punt-return ability, and he is active and willing in run support. Previously: 27
29. Kyle Long OG6-6⅞311
Analysis: Long is inexperienced, but his physical tools are as good as those of any other lineman in the class. He has good length, moves well, shows some inline power and has played both guard and tackle. He needs to improve his awareness and instincts, but that should come with more reps. Previously: NR
30. Kevin Minter* ILB6-2244
Analysis: He could get off blocks more quickly at times, but Minter is a tackling machine who's capable of playing from sideline to sideline. His overall talent level is that of a first-rounder, but he might slide into the second with the likes of Ogletree and Te'o ranking just ahead of him at inside linebacker. Previously: NR
31. Zach Ertz* TE6-6249
Analysis: Ertz showed off his ball skills and body control in the Cardinal's upset win over Oregon, coming down with a jump ball in the back of the end zone for the game-tying touchdown late in regulation. He's a solid route-runner who can create mismatches with his size and separates from coverage, shows speed to stretch the seam and is an effective wall-off blocker. Previously: 29
32. Justin Hunter* WR6-4205
Analysis: Hunter's smooth routes and body control on tape earned him a top-10 grade going into the season, but his production didn't match his potential and his ball skills were inconsistent. He appears to be fully recovered from a torn ACL suffered in 2011 and his physical tools are impressive, but he needs to be more consistent. Previously: 25
Out of the rankings: Auburn DE Corey Lemonier, Notre Dame TE Tyler Eifert, USC QB Matt Barkley, Michigan OT Taylor Lewan (returned to school)