Matthew Stafford and the road to $200 million

[News Bot]

Kevin Seifert
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It will take a day or so for the full details to filter out of the Detroit Lions' contract agreement with quarterback Matthew Stafford. In the meantime, it's worth amassing what we already know and wondering if Stafford will approach and surpass a seemingly unreachable milestone: $200 million in career earnings.

[wrapimg=right]http://i.imgur.com/YTcOwEt.png[/wrapimg]We've discussed this topic before, noting that Stafford entered the NFL at age 21 and as one of the final No. 1 overall picks under the league's previous rookie pay structure. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Stafford's rookie contract brought him a total of $50.5 million in salary and bonuses over the past four seasons.

Tuesday's contract agreement includes $41.5 million in guarantees, $43 million in the first three years and a total of $76.5 million. So by the time he is 28, Stafford will have earned about $93.5 million. If he plays out this contract, he will have taken in $127 million over the first nine years of his career, at which point he will be 30.

It's difficult to know where quarterback salaries will be at that point, much less Stafford's value in that market. For all we know, his career could be over by then. But if he plays at a level that simply maintains his salary, he'll be a $200 million man by age 35. The milestone could come earlier if his next contract brings him into the $20 million-plus annual range of elite quarterbacks.

For context, consider that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had earned $29.91 million by the time he turned 25 and had taken in $61.26 million when he was 28. Rodgers' April extension, worth $139 million over the next seven years, will bring him close to $200 million if he plays to age 36.

There is no real football significance in Stafford's career earnings, other than a reminder of why the NFL put such a high priority on lowering rookie salaries in its current collective bargaining agreement (CBA). To this point, Stafford has earned and been guaranteed more money than any 25-year-old player ever has and -- with the possible exception of the St. Louis Rams' Sam Bradford -- ever will.

 

[HE WITH HORNS]

To this point, Stafford has earned and been guaranteed more money than any 25-year-old player ever has and -- with the possible exception of the St. Louis Rams' Sam Bradford -- ever will.

Another reason to hate on Sam. Where is Old Larry? Oh wait, he's on another forum, thank God.

 

[Faceplant]

One thing is for sure, we can NOT afford to pay Sam anything like that and hope to keep this team intact. Hopefully we can manage to keep a lot of these pieces around for a bit and see them grow.

 

[-X-]

One thing is for sure, we can NOT afford to pay Sam anything like that and hope to keep this team intact. Hopefully we can manage to keep a lot of these pieces around for a bit and see them grow.

What he's being paid now is the going rate for quarterbacks. Good ones at least. While I agree we can't continue to inflate his salary, it's curious that he's not even the highest paid player on the team right now.


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[albefree69]

X wrote:
What he's being paid now is the going rate for quarterbacks. Good ones at least. While I agree we can't continue to inflate his salary, it's curious that he's not even the highest paid player on the team right now.

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.spotrac.com/top-salaries/nfl/quarterback/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.spotrac.com/top-salaries/nfl/quarterback/</a>

1 Peyton Manning $15,000,000
2 Eli Manning $13,000,000
3 Philip Rivers $12,000,000
4 Matt Ryan $10,000,000
5 Drew Brees $9,750,000
6 Sam Bradford $9,000,000
7 Jay Cutler $8,470,000
8 Josh Freeman $8,430,000
9 Mark Sanchez $8,250,000
10 Alex Smith $7,500,000

Matt Ryan will soon be making much more as he's in his last year of his old contract. Those are just base salaries too.

Citing an unnamed league source, ESPN Boston reported that Brady will receive a $30 million bonus to be paid out in installments through Feb. 15, 2015, along with his cap-friendly base salaries of $1 million in 2013 and $2 million in 2014. This is why Brady isn't on the list.

<a class="postlink" href="http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/99802/betting-on-st-louis-rams-quarterback-sam-bradford-hype-vs-reality" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/ ... vs-reality</a>

The 2013 narrative for St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford is predictable. It is plausible. It is also probably overstating things for dramatic effect.

The narrative says the clock is ticking loudly for Bradford entering his fourth NFL season. It says Bradford faces a make-or-break season now that the Rams have surrounded him with young weapons. It suggests Bradford, with a contract scheduled to balloon in the absence of guaranteed money beyond 2013, could be vulnerable to release following the season if he doesn't finally break out.

The truth: Bradford faces an important and possibly pivotal 2013 season, but the team has options if Bradford's longer-term outlook remains ambiguous one year from now.

"To say this is a make-or-break season is rather strong," ESPN scout Matt Williamson said, "but it is certainly a 'prove it' season or a 'no more excuses' season."

Let us examine some of the dynamics, beginning with the contract.

Bradford is set to collect $9 million in salary this season, $8 million of which is guaranteed. His deal counts about $12.6 million against the cap. The salary jumps to $14 million in 2014, with a $17.6 million scheduled cap hit. That's the type of money top quarterbacks earn. What, then, if Bradford is not one of them? What if he's merely decent or pretty good, but not someone worth nearly $18 million a year?

The Rams could release Bradford, but that wouldn't make much sense unless he played horrendously -- something he has never done to this point. Remember, too, that the team would need an obviously better option at the position. Good luck finding one of those.

More likely and a lot less dramatically, the Rams could buy another year for evaluation. They are building for the long term with their own draft choices and those acquired from the Washington Redskins last offseason. The Rams already have drafted eight players in the first and second rounds under the team-friendly rookie wage scale, tied with Cincinnati and New England for most in the NFL. That figure is scheduled to grow by three in 2014. Their window is still opening. Time is on their side.

St. Louis Rams quarterback Sam Bradford has a lot riding on his performance in 2013.
If there's no definitive verdict on Bradford in a year, the Rams could stay the course, or they could convert some of that $14 million base salary for 2014 into a signing bonus, keeping the cap hit relatively flat from 2013 into the next season. Bradford would still get his money. The team would get some relief.

The cap charge for 2015 would jump from $16.6 million into the $20 million range under such a scenario, deferring until then a decision on whether Bradford deserves what top quarterbacks command. One potential downside: raising the franchise-tag price for Bradford through an inflated cap figure in 2015.

Of course, all of this is premature from a Rams standpoint. The team likes Bradford now and expects more from him this season, the first one since Bradford's days at the University of Oklahoma that he will not be learning a new offense from a new coordinator. Speaking of those college days ...

"The Rams are tailoring things to resemble what he ran at Oklahoma, where he was so successful," Williamson said. "Three-wide and four-wide, shotgun formation, spread the field horizontally. It looks that way in St. Louis from the bodies they are bringing in."

Those bodies can move, and fast.

Eighth overall choice Tavon Austin and free-agent addition Jared Cook bring different types of speed to the offense.

Austin, at 5-foot-8 and 174 pounds, can accelerate and elude. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.34 seconds at the NFL scouting combine.

Cook, 6-5 and 248, is a straight-line threat at tight end. He has 4.5-second speed and posted a 41-inch vertical at the combine in 2009. Like Bradford, he's making big money more on potential than for what he has accomplished to this point.

The Rams' intentions seem clear.

"We've got exceptional speed on offense," coach Jeff Fisher said during the draft.

The evidence suggests Bradford is improving. His 2011 season was forgettable, but the Rams in general and Bradford in particular were unusually injured that season. Bradford went 7-9 as a starter in 2010, his rookie season. He went 7-8-1 last season, setting career highs for yardage (3,702), yards per attempt (6.7), touchdown passes (21), NFL passer rating (82.6) and Total QBR (51.6).

"He hasn't done enough yet to say I trust him no matter what like I do with Colin Kaepernick or Russell Wilson," Williamson said. "But if I was starting a team right now, I wouldn't be against starting it with Bradford. I would not say he is a bust. ... I still see why he was the first overall pick."

There is little not to like about Bradford except for the results. He throws the ball accurately and with authority. He proved sufficiently mobile last season as his health improved. His demeanor suggests he's sufficiently invested. Former teammates such as Steven Jackson have testified to Bradford's toughness.

Total QBR, Clutch-Weighted EPA, 4Q/OT
2012 QB QBR CW EPA
Tony Romo 71.2 +2.23
Sam Bradford 78.3 +2.22
Matthew Stafford 64.1 +2.01
Andrew Luck 75.5 +1.94
Russell Wilson 74.7 +1.93
Peyton Manning 89.5 +1.7
Robert Griffin III 72.1 +1.69
Matt Ryan 69.1 +1.66
Aaron Rodgers 76.4 +1.59
Colin Kaepernick 89.1 +1.44
And it's not like all the results have been negative.

Bradford made positive plays in critical situations last season, helping him rank fourth behind Peyton Manning, Kaepernick and Jay Cutler in Total QBR during fourth quarters and overtimes. The chart ranks quarterbacks last season by the total clutch-weighted expected points they added per game through rushing, passing, sacks, penalties and fumbles during fourth quarters and overtimes, adjusted for the importance of each situation.

What we haven't seen, to this point, is strong evidence Bradford can make those around him perform at a higher level. It's possible too many of the players around him to this point were irredeemable from a talent standpoint. A weak supporting cast has, by all accounts, dragged down Bradford.

To what extent can Bradford maximize Austin, Cook and others with obvious raw talent? The Rams should find some answers this season.

"It does feel like this is a make-or-break year for Bradford even though the Rams have options," Williamson said, "and if I were to bet, I bet he would make it."

If Sam does half as well as we want him to this year he'll be making much more than he is now IMO. I'd guestimate at least in the Eli Manning range. And it doesn't count his signing bonus. As we're up against the cap already, even a small raise will require us to cut talent like Wells and Dahl. All I can say is we all better pray the cap goes way up.