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http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/13143660/johnny-manziel-become-browns-qb-future-nfl
Johnny Manziel's rookie NFL season could not have gone worse.
Between not winning the starting quarterback job, posting an abysmally low 5.1 Total QBR when he was under center, and off-field issues that led to an eventual stint in a rehab treatment facility, Johnny Football fell far short of the heights he reached while winning the Heisman Trophy at Texas A&M.
Year 2 has Manziel taking a different approach that includes a change of scenery and working closely with new Browns offensive coordinator John DeFilippo
Can those moves translate into Manziel reaching his potential? He has a long way to go, but after looking at a number of elements, it is clear there is a path for Manziel to become a quality starting quarterback.
Here's how he can get there.
Improved pocket awareness and huddle management
DeFilippo recently noted that Manziel has made significant progress in his pocket awareness and huddle management. He spoke of Manziel making some reads that he didn't make in college or his rookie season and said Manziel is now able to get the play calls out in the huddle with confidence.
These are subtle but highly important factors in a quarterback's success, and Manziel's advances here are strong indicators that he is taking this second chance very seriously.
Could improve the Browns' risk/reward ratio
One area in which Cleveland struggled last year was its vertical passing game risk/reward ratio (vertical being defined as aerials that travel 11 or more yards downfield).
The Browns fared well in the reward portion of this measurement, as they racked up 11.6 yards per attempt (YPA) on vertical passes, a mark that ranked ninth in the league.
Where the team needs help is in the risk area. Cleveland's nine interceptions on vertical passes placed tied for 18th, a seemingly acceptable level but one that actually did not accurately reflect how bad this team was in taking downfield chances.
A better indicator is the Browns' vertical bad decision rate (BDR), which measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. Cleveland's 4.8 percent mark here ranked 30th and shows just how often its passers were throwing caution to the wind.
Manziel did have a tendency to take far too many on-field chances at Texas A&M, but he registered only one bad decision last season, that being on a scramble play against Cincinnati in which he tried to throw the ball across his body and over the middle of the field.
That he made this type of error once is already an indicator Manziel is learning to not take unnecessary risks, and that was before being tutored by DeFilippo. It is quite conceivable Manziel could cut the Browns' vertical BDR by a percentage point or more if he continues to progress in this system.
Increased volume of checkdown passes
Manziel could also benefit from relying more on safe, easy-to-complete throws . A good example of this is the checkdown pass. Last year, only two of Manziel's 42 dropbacks resulted in checkdown passes.
This 4.8 percent checkdown rate is lower than the 5.9 percent league-wide checkdown rate and much lower than the league-leading 10.3 percent checkdown rate (Minnesota), so there is room for more of these throws in Manziel's game.
Increased volume here could also be a significant yardage boon for the Browns' offense, as last year it tallied a 6.8 YPA on checkdown passes.
Incorporate quarterback rushing plays into the offense
The only way to get the most value out of Manziel is by finding ways to incorporate his superb rushing abilities into the game plan. This was a major issue for Cleveland's quarterbacks last season, as the Browns' signal-callers ranked 26th in ESPN Stats & Information's Expected Points Added (EPA) metric on plays in which they ran the football.
EPA gauges the scoreboard value of all plays by accounting for elements such as field position, down and distance, and time remaining in the game. Cleveland's passers had a negative impact in this area, as their minus-8.1 EPA indicates they cost the Browns about a half a point per game on rushing plays.
In Manziel's two seasons at Texas A&M, the Aggies posted a 151.1 EPA on plays in which the quarterback ran with the football, a mark that placed first among major conference teams. He has the ability to move the Browns well into positive EPA territory here if Cleveland will just alter the game plan to incorporate more quarterback rushing plays.
Bottom line
Manziel is not a typical talent and therefore it takes an atypical game plan to get the most out of him. The Browns might not end up going in this direction in 2015, as Josh McCown looks to have the inside track to the starting job. However, it is clear that if Manziel continues to avoid the negative elements that held him back last season, he still can be Cleveland's quarterback of the future
Johnny Manziel's rookie NFL season could not have gone worse.
Between not winning the starting quarterback job, posting an abysmally low 5.1 Total QBR when he was under center, and off-field issues that led to an eventual stint in a rehab treatment facility, Johnny Football fell far short of the heights he reached while winning the Heisman Trophy at Texas A&M.
Year 2 has Manziel taking a different approach that includes a change of scenery and working closely with new Browns offensive coordinator John DeFilippo
Can those moves translate into Manziel reaching his potential? He has a long way to go, but after looking at a number of elements, it is clear there is a path for Manziel to become a quality starting quarterback.
Here's how he can get there.
Improved pocket awareness and huddle management
DeFilippo recently noted that Manziel has made significant progress in his pocket awareness and huddle management. He spoke of Manziel making some reads that he didn't make in college or his rookie season and said Manziel is now able to get the play calls out in the huddle with confidence.
These are subtle but highly important factors in a quarterback's success, and Manziel's advances here are strong indicators that he is taking this second chance very seriously.
Could improve the Browns' risk/reward ratio
One area in which Cleveland struggled last year was its vertical passing game risk/reward ratio (vertical being defined as aerials that travel 11 or more yards downfield).
The Browns fared well in the reward portion of this measurement, as they racked up 11.6 yards per attempt (YPA) on vertical passes, a mark that ranked ninth in the league.
Where the team needs help is in the risk area. Cleveland's nine interceptions on vertical passes placed tied for 18th, a seemingly acceptable level but one that actually did not accurately reflect how bad this team was in taking downfield chances.
A better indicator is the Browns' vertical bad decision rate (BDR), which measures how often a passer makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. Cleveland's 4.8 percent mark here ranked 30th and shows just how often its passers were throwing caution to the wind.
Manziel did have a tendency to take far too many on-field chances at Texas A&M, but he registered only one bad decision last season, that being on a scramble play against Cincinnati in which he tried to throw the ball across his body and over the middle of the field.
That he made this type of error once is already an indicator Manziel is learning to not take unnecessary risks, and that was before being tutored by DeFilippo. It is quite conceivable Manziel could cut the Browns' vertical BDR by a percentage point or more if he continues to progress in this system.
Increased volume of checkdown passes
Manziel could also benefit from relying more on safe, easy-to-complete throws . A good example of this is the checkdown pass. Last year, only two of Manziel's 42 dropbacks resulted in checkdown passes.
This 4.8 percent checkdown rate is lower than the 5.9 percent league-wide checkdown rate and much lower than the league-leading 10.3 percent checkdown rate (Minnesota), so there is room for more of these throws in Manziel's game.
Increased volume here could also be a significant yardage boon for the Browns' offense, as last year it tallied a 6.8 YPA on checkdown passes.
Incorporate quarterback rushing plays into the offense
The only way to get the most value out of Manziel is by finding ways to incorporate his superb rushing abilities into the game plan. This was a major issue for Cleveland's quarterbacks last season, as the Browns' signal-callers ranked 26th in ESPN Stats & Information's Expected Points Added (EPA) metric on plays in which they ran the football.
EPA gauges the scoreboard value of all plays by accounting for elements such as field position, down and distance, and time remaining in the game. Cleveland's passers had a negative impact in this area, as their minus-8.1 EPA indicates they cost the Browns about a half a point per game on rushing plays.
In Manziel's two seasons at Texas A&M, the Aggies posted a 151.1 EPA on plays in which the quarterback ran with the football, a mark that placed first among major conference teams. He has the ability to move the Browns well into positive EPA territory here if Cleveland will just alter the game plan to incorporate more quarterback rushing plays.
Bottom line
Manziel is not a typical talent and therefore it takes an atypical game plan to get the most out of him. The Browns might not end up going in this direction in 2015, as Josh McCown looks to have the inside track to the starting job. However, it is clear that if Manziel continues to avoid the negative elements that held him back last season, he still can be Cleveland's quarterback of the future
