Making a point: Rams must score more

[News Bot]

Nick Wagoner
<a class="postlink" href="http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/107646/maki" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/107646/maki</a>

EARTH CITY, Mo. -- Late last week I began the process of piecing together a record prediction for the Rams in 2013.

Seeking the input of fans on Twitter, I wanted to see how optimistic a small sample of the fan base is and what were some of the overriding issues in their minds about what can take the Rams from just under .500 to double digits in victories.

The responses for the record ranged mostly from 7-9 to 9-7 with a few optimistic souls going for the gusto with 12-4 or 11-5 predictions. But the answer for what would take the Rams to the next level and put them into the playoffs was pretty universal: score more points, stupid.

OK, so nobody really called me stupid, at least not in response to those questions. But the next logical part of the discussion was to ask how many points they’d need to score to take the next step.

A few responses:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/_w_y/status/370633645398048769[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/mswinchell/status/370634373273370624[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/mswinchell/status/370634373273370624[/tweet]
[tweet]https://twitter.com/Bsawyer135/status/370635120308273152[/tweet]

The baseline answer seemed to come in around 21 point per game, trending a bit higher than 22. Most cited a talented defense as the reason that three touchdowns would be enough to help the Rams improve.

Of course, for the Rams to reach that level, they’d have to post a point total the offense hasn’t reached since 2005 when the Rams finished 11th in the league with an average of 22.7 points per game.

[wrapimg=right]http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/7919/37yg.png[/wrapimg]Getting to 25 or higher would represent a nearly monumental challenge in reaching levels of scoring the Rams haven’t hit since 2003 when they finished tied for second in the league at 27.9 points per game.

Bringing it back to more recent trends, the Rams' offense has reached historic levels of struggle scoring points. In the dozen years since the Rams were at the peak of their powers and led the league in scoring in 2001, they’ve posted the second- and third-worst scoring seasons (2009, 2011) among all teams.

Last year, the Rams made some strides, improving to 18.7 points per game, good for 25th in the league. Improvement to 21 points per game would only bump the Rams up to a tie for 22nd in the league in that regard.

For frame of reference, of the 12 teams that reached the playoffs in 2012, 11 finished in the top 14 in the league in scoring. Only Indianapolis wasn’t in that group and the Colts finished tied for 18th at 22.3 points per game.

My take: The Rams expended a ton of offseason energy, dollars and draft capital to improve an offense that has desperately needed a jolt. A three-point gain would be nice but it probably wouldn’t be enough to get them into the playoffs given the high-octane offenses around the league. The Rams' defense is probably going to be solid again this year but isn’t at the point yet where it can carry the team to victories on a consistent basis. Ratcheting up the offense into the 22-23 points-per-game range would likely be enough for the Rams to contend deep into the season and perhaps reach the playoffs. To do that, they’ll need a lot of luck in terms of health on the offensive line and many of their young skill position players to take a step forward.

 

[jjab360]

Anybody else miss the good old days of 10.9 ppg?

 

[-X-]

Anybody else miss the good old days of 10.9 ppg?

Yeah, not so much.

 

[EastRam]

I see no reason why the Rams or their fans shouldn't expect at least 7 points per game gain in total scoring this season.

With everything thats been added on the O side 7 points isn't like getting to the GSOE days.

 

[CGI_Ram]

With Cook, Austin, an improved Givens and Quick... I'll be shocked if we are not north of 23ppg.

 

[DR RAM]

With Cook, Austin, an improved Givens and Quick... I'll be shocked if we are not north of 23ppg.

Our BIG play potential has really been on display this preseason. That was the focus of our last two drafts and acquisitions, I think. Just wait until our running game kicks in. We may have a good scoring defense also.

 

[CGI_Ram]

With Cook, Austin, an improved Givens and Quick... I'll be shocked if we are not north of 23ppg.

Our BIG play potential has really been on display this preseason. That was the focus of our last two drafts and acquisitions, I think. Just wait until our running game kicks in. We may have a good scoring defense also.

That's a good point. Jackson wasn't necessarily a TD machine.

I got to believe the young backs, being more explosive, will break a few longer runs for TD's than we'd normally see from SJ.

 

[jjab360]

Anybody else miss the good old days of 10.9 ppg?

Yeah, not so much.

Yeah, me neither. For some reason, though, I just couldn't tear my eyes away from every single excruciating, hair-pulling minute of every single game.

 

[DR RAM]

With Cook, Austin, an improved Givens and Quick... I'll be shocked if we are not north of 23ppg.

Our BIG play potential has really been on display this preseason. That was the focus of our last two drafts and acquisitions, I think. Just wait until our running game kicks in. We may have a good scoring defense also.

That's a good point. Jackson wasn't necessarily a TD machine.

I got to believe the young backs, being more explosive, will break a few longer runs for TD's than we'd normally see from SJ.

Even Benny has break-away speed.

 

[Selassie I]

I get the feeling that our O is going to surprise people with how much more they score this year.

We now have the ability to create multiple mismatches, and that has not been the case in a long time. I'm looking forward to seeing a defense stack the box against us.

 

[-X-]

Anybody else miss the good old days of 10.9 ppg?

Yeah, not so much.

Yeah, me neither. For some reason, though, I just couldn't tear my eyes away from every single excruciating, hair-pulling minute of every single game.

Me neither. But I often wanted to tear out my eyes.

 

[F. Mulder]

This is an Offense that needs to be at the 24 PPG type. The D is above average and will have its games where it shows both in play and points allowed but in each playoff team's season the other side of the ball has to do their share as well. The Rams Offense needs to steal some shoot out games where the D is not at their best and they need to give the D (and fans!) a game where the Rams dominate AND go up by more than a score. How many times have we seen the Rams dominate but let the other team hang around within a score only to win a game they had no business winning.

 

[CGI_Ram]

This is an Offense that needs to be at the 24 PPG type. The D is above average and will have its games where it shows both in play and points allowed but in each playoff team's season the other side of the ball has to do their share as well. The Rams Offense needs to steal some shoot out games where the D is not at their best and they need to give the D (and fans!) a game where the Rams dominate AND go up by more than a score. How many times have we seen the Rams dominate but let the other team hang around within a score only to win a game they had no business winning.

I'm with you Mulder.

If the O can get us up some breathing room, this defense could be top 10 or even... top 5. Nothing helps a defense more than an offense putting the opposing team in a more predictive mode.

 

[-X-]

This is an Offense that needs to be at the 24 PPG type. The D is above average and will have its games where it shows both in play and points allowed but in each playoff team's season the other side of the ball has to do their share as well. The Rams Offense needs to steal some shoot out games where the D is not at their best and they need to give the D (and fans!) a game where the Rams dominate AND go up by more than a score. How many times have we seen the Rams dominate but let the other team hang around within a score only to win a game they had no business winning.

I'm with you Mulder.

If the O can get us up some breathing room, this defense could be top 10 or even... top 5. Nothing helps a defense more than an offense putting the opposing team in a more predictive mode.

+1. Getting a lead will pay off huge dividends. Our defense is built to play with a lead.
I'll have to go with everyone else's opinion that 24 PPG will get the job done. Hopefully it's more than that...

 

[DR RAM]

This is an Offense that needs to be at the 24 PPG type. The D is above average and will have its games where it shows both in play and points allowed but in each playoff team's season the other side of the ball has to do their share as well. The Rams Offense needs to steal some shoot out games where the D is not at their best and they need to give the D (and fans!) a game where the Rams dominate AND go up by more than a score. How many times have we seen the Rams dominate but let the other team hang around within a score only to win a game they had no business winning.

I'm with you Mulder.

If the O can get us up some breathing room, this defense could be top 10 or even... top 5. Nothing helps a defense more than an offense putting the opposing team in a more predictive mode.

+1. Getting a lead will pay off huge dividends. Our defense is built to play with a lead.
I'll have to go with everyone else's opinion that 24 PPG will get the job done. Hopefully it's more than that...

The ppg thing kinda gets me. I mean, who cares as long as we win? 24 points don't mean jack when the other team scores 25. But, the point is that this team is should be much more explosive this year, on both sides of the ball.

 

[-X-]

This is an Offense that needs to be at the 24 PPG type. The D is above average and will have its games where it shows both in play and points allowed but in each playoff team's season the other side of the ball has to do their share as well. The Rams Offense needs to steal some shoot out games where the D is not at their best and they need to give the D (and fans!) a game where the Rams dominate AND go up by more than a score. How many times have we seen the Rams dominate but let the other team hang around within a score only to win a game they had no business winning.

I'm with you Mulder.

If the O can get us up some breathing room, this defense could be top 10 or even... top 5. Nothing helps a defense more than an offense putting the opposing team in a more predictive mode.

+1. Getting a lead will pay off huge dividends. Our defense is built to play with a lead.
I'll have to go with everyone else's opinion that 24 PPG will get the job done. Hopefully it's more than that...

The ppg thing kinda gets me. I mean, who cares as long as we win? 24 points don't mean jack when the other team scores 25. But, the point is that this team is should be much more explosive this year, on both sides of the ball.

Oh I couldn't care less either. If we win 2-0, I'm thrilled. But Wagoner wanted to know what it would take to get to the playoffs, and around 22-24 PPG would seem to be the popular vote. And I think that would be what it would *take* as well. Not many teams get to the playoffs (and beyond) by scoring less than 20 per game.

 

[F. Mulder]

This is an Offense that needs to be at the 24 PPG type. The D is above average and will have its games where it shows both in play and points allowed but in each playoff team's season the other side of the ball has to do their share as well. The Rams Offense needs to steal some shoot out games where the D is not at their best and they need to give the D (and fans!) a game where the Rams dominate AND go up by more than a score. How many times have we seen the Rams dominate but let the other team hang around within a score only to win a game they had no business winning.

I'm with you Mulder.

If the O can get us up some breathing room, this defense could be top 10 or even... top 5. Nothing helps a defense more than an offense putting the opposing team in a more predictive mode.

+1. Getting a lead will pay off huge dividends. Our defense is built to play with a lead.
I'll have to go with everyone else's opinion that 24 PPG will get the job done. Hopefully it's more than that...

The ppg thing kinda gets me. I mean, who cares as long as we win? 24 points don't mean jack when the other team scores 25. But, the point is that this team is should be much more explosive this year, on both sides of the ball.

DR- I get your overall point but just for grins and chuckles, if the Rams had scored 24 points in any of their losses they would have had 3 more wins. It IS an arbitrary number but it sure puts you in an awful lot of games and it should get you more wins than losses IF things go as they should regarding the D and a small number of fluke scoring plays.

 

[DR RAM]

This is an Offense that needs to be at the 24 PPG type. The D is above average and will have its games where it shows both in play and points allowed but in each playoff team's season the other side of the ball has to do their share as well. The Rams Offense needs to steal some shoot out games where the D is not at their best and they need to give the D (and fans!) a game where the Rams dominate AND go up by more than a score. How many times have we seen the Rams dominate but let the other team hang around within a score only to win a game they had no business winning.

I'm with you Mulder.

If the O can get us up some breathing room, this defense could be top 10 or even... top 5. Nothing helps a defense more than an offense putting the opposing team in a more predictive mode.

+1. Getting a lead will pay off huge dividends. Our defense is built to play with a lead.
I'll have to go with everyone else's opinion that 24 PPG will get the job done. Hopefully it's more than that...

The ppg thing kinda gets me. I mean, who cares as long as we win? 24 points don't mean jack when the other team scores 25. But, the point is that this team is should be much more explosive this year, on both sides of the ball.

DR- I get your overall point but just for grins and chuckles, if the Rams had scored 24 points in any of their losses they would have had 3 more wins. It IS an arbitrary number but it sure puts you in an awful lot of games and it should get you more wins than losses IF things go as they should regarding the D and a small number of fluke scoring plays.

I'm just a hard ass as far as that goes, because what if the league scoring average goes up 4 ppg, then what? Everything is situational circumstance, and I know that you know that. But, yeah, I already acknowledged the gist of the point, and I agree for the most part, and further, I can see us averaging more than that to tell the truth.

Our D SHOULD be very good. I expect them to be, but we already lost a few chinks with the loss of Dunbar. Is it a HUGE loss, yes and no. It's a domino effect for certain.

What I hope for our offense, is that we keep our foot on the opposing team's necks. I don't think we are built to grind it out with our power running game.

 

[Faceplant]

Agree with you all and love your enthusiasm. Wish I shared the optimism though. This offense has has stunk up the joint for years, so I am jaded, but I just don't see the offense scoring 6 more ppg this year. I would be happy with 22 ppg. Heck, as DR said, I would be happy with 2 ppg if our D shutout every opponent. Hope I am wrong, but I think NEXT year is where we see the offense click more.

 

[F. Mulder]

Agree with you all and love your enthusiasm. Wish I shared the optimism though. This offense has has stunk up the joint for years, so I am jaded, but I just don't see the offense scoring 6 more ppg this year. I would be happy with 22 ppg. Heck, as DR said, I would be happy with 2 ppg if our D shutout every opponent. Hope I am wrong, but I think NEXT year is where we see the offense click more.

Just to be clear, I didn't say we would be a 24 PPG Offense, I'm saying it should be the goal. With any average you lose some you score more than normal and you win some you score less.

The keys to this team's offensive production are:

1) Field position. Even with the above average D there were few 3 and outs, few good special team returns, and few drives that were near mid-field. Long fields and a below average defense that lacks explosion result in lots of punts and long FG attempts. I love this D but I want them to flex their muscles when a team is pinned back in its own zone and in trouble. I also want a return team that can take a potential bad field position and make it neutral or even a positive. I also want a player or 800 who can take a play and make it big and explosive. Last year the Rams were one of the worst teams at even getting into the red zone and when they did it generally didn't result in 7.

2) Third down conversions. You cannot score if you cannot sustain drives. Not only were the Rams poor at 3rd down conversions but they seemed pretty bad at converting 3rd and shorts.

3) Summation of all my babble. Field position. Explosive plays. Red Zone entrances. Red Zone conversions. Third down conversions.

Do they have the capability to do that? Sure, much more so than in past years. Will they do it? Who knows? To me, get into the red zone first more often and let's take it from there.