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<a class="postlink" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9641029/nfl-teams-most-reliant-rookies-2013" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... okies-2013</a>
Denver and Baltimore gave us a good lesson Thursday night in the difference between big rookie names and NFL rookie reality. Baltimore added Matt Elam and Arthur Brown in the draft, and both will eventually become key players, Elam at safety and Brown at linebacker. Many assume we'd see a big impact right away, but they contributed little and neither started. Denver drafted Montee Ball to be a threat in the run game, where they lack explosiveness. But it's clear Ball will be brought along at a slow pace. He had eight carries Thursday night, and he isn't close to being the bell cow in Denver.
But this is how it should be for above-average teams. The phrase, "I really hope we get to use our rookies!" doesn't exist in the NFL. Yes, there will be impact, but you don't want to rely on it if you don't have to. Teams who expect a ton of rookie impact generally aren't battling for playoff spots.
But in 2013, some teams need the help.
Next week, I'll deliver a first batch of rookie rankings. But for now, we're taking a look at teams with key rookies.
Below, I'm ranking teams based on how much they'll rely on rookies in 2013. As a rule, this isn't merely about the total number of rookie starters. Positional value matters. So a rookie quarterback starting clearly outweighs a rookie right tackle. Let's line it up.
1. Buffalo Bills
When your quarterback situation involves one rookie (EJ Manuel) backed up by another (Jeff Tuel), it pretty much secures your place at the top of this list. But Buffalo's rookie reliance doesn't stop there. Kiko Alonso could end up leading the team in tackles as the starting middle linebacker. Back on offense, Robert Woods is going to need to play a key role at wide receiver (he's as talented a player as they have on the roster at that position) and Marquise Goodwin could be used as the wideout who truly stretches defenses with his speed.
2. New York Jets
The Jets would be No. 1 most years. Geno Smith will get the call in Week 1 and perhaps all season, given the "rebuilding" feel around this roster. Dee Milliner steps in and must pay dividends immediately at corner, and Sheldon Richardson will be a key cog on the defensive line. Richardson has a great chance to succeed on that line. That's a very good defensive front. Elsewhere, Tommy Bohanon (T-Bo?) is at fullback. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Brian Winters get some run at guard this year. He's capable.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
I liked the Jags' draft, and since this team is trying to be competitive while also deepening the roster and evaluating, I don't mind the rush of rookie starters. Right now I see four rookies starting in Week 1, with WR Ace Sanders filling in for Justin Blackmon -- Sanders is a terror in space and could be a highlight guy -- and Luke Joeckel sliding in at right tackle. On defense, Dwayne Gratz and John Cyprien are at corner and safety, respectively. There's some necessity here, but it's also smart to use these guys as the Jags build a new foundation.
4. Chicago Bears
We've been talking about the Bears' offensive line going on five years, and they will unveil a new right side in 2013, with a pair of rookies starting in Week 1. Kyle Long, the guard out of Oregon, has looked really good in the preseason, and Jordan Mills, whom the Bears nabbed in round 5 out of Louisiana Tech, is starting at right tackle. Not only that, but the Bears also could be calling on Jon Bostic and Khaseem Greene early if there are any health issues at linebacker.
5. Detroit Lions
I put the Lions up so high because they have a pair of rookies in really important spots. Ezekiel Ansah needs to provide some push off the edge, and if he can, the Lions could have a defensive line that can collapse pockets regularly. They need good work from Ansah to balance what should be a great interior on that D-line. And Darius Slay is being asked to make plays -- typically battling a No. 2 wide receiver -- from the get-go. There's a lot riding on those two.
6. St. Louis Rams
The Rams were desperate to add explosiveness on offense, and Tavon Austin -- who they kept hidden away in the preseason -- is simply going to get a lot of touches. But I also wouldn't be surprised if Zac Stacy plays a big role in the run game. On defense, both Alec Ogletree and T.J. McDonald are penciled in to start. This team requires a lot from the rookie class.
7. Atlanta Falcons
Surprised to see Atlanta so high? Well, I doubt Thomas Dimitroff is, because he was aggressive in the draft with the intent of adding starting-level talent to his secondary. First-round pick Desmond Trufant is going to be on the field all game, and second-rounder Robert Alford should also see a lot of time in subpackages.
8. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were really week on the interior of the defensive line last year, but they'll make major strides in 2013 with the help of their rookie class. Star Lotulelei will make an instant impact; he's an active run-stuffer who can push the pocket. And Kawann Short has looked good so far. The success of the run defense depends a lot on these two.
9. Green Bay Packers
When Aaron Rodgers has his blind side protected by a rookie, it's safe to say that'll get you on this list. David Bakhtiari, a fourth-round pick out of Colorado, will be on the spot. Elsewhere, Eddie Lacy will be a big factor in the growth of the run game, and Datone Jones will get starters' reps at defensive end in Dom Capers' 3-4.
10. New England Patriots
When relying on the health of Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski is part of the plan, it's good to have a Plan B prepared, and the Patriots used the preseason to do so. Aaron Dobson is going to get his catches, but it appears Kenbrell Thompkins will too. Add in Josh Boyce, and the Patriots' depth at WR is all about rookies. Zach Sudfeld could also see the field at tight end. On defense, I can see Logan Ryan getting a lot of work at cornerback.
Denver and Baltimore gave us a good lesson Thursday night in the difference between big rookie names and NFL rookie reality. Baltimore added Matt Elam and Arthur Brown in the draft, and both will eventually become key players, Elam at safety and Brown at linebacker. Many assume we'd see a big impact right away, but they contributed little and neither started. Denver drafted Montee Ball to be a threat in the run game, where they lack explosiveness. But it's clear Ball will be brought along at a slow pace. He had eight carries Thursday night, and he isn't close to being the bell cow in Denver.
But this is how it should be for above-average teams. The phrase, "I really hope we get to use our rookies!" doesn't exist in the NFL. Yes, there will be impact, but you don't want to rely on it if you don't have to. Teams who expect a ton of rookie impact generally aren't battling for playoff spots.
But in 2013, some teams need the help.
Next week, I'll deliver a first batch of rookie rankings. But for now, we're taking a look at teams with key rookies.
Below, I'm ranking teams based on how much they'll rely on rookies in 2013. As a rule, this isn't merely about the total number of rookie starters. Positional value matters. So a rookie quarterback starting clearly outweighs a rookie right tackle. Let's line it up.
1. Buffalo Bills
When your quarterback situation involves one rookie (EJ Manuel) backed up by another (Jeff Tuel), it pretty much secures your place at the top of this list. But Buffalo's rookie reliance doesn't stop there. Kiko Alonso could end up leading the team in tackles as the starting middle linebacker. Back on offense, Robert Woods is going to need to play a key role at wide receiver (he's as talented a player as they have on the roster at that position) and Marquise Goodwin could be used as the wideout who truly stretches defenses with his speed.
2. New York Jets
The Jets would be No. 1 most years. Geno Smith will get the call in Week 1 and perhaps all season, given the "rebuilding" feel around this roster. Dee Milliner steps in and must pay dividends immediately at corner, and Sheldon Richardson will be a key cog on the defensive line. Richardson has a great chance to succeed on that line. That's a very good defensive front. Elsewhere, Tommy Bohanon (T-Bo?) is at fullback. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Brian Winters get some run at guard this year. He's capable.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
I liked the Jags' draft, and since this team is trying to be competitive while also deepening the roster and evaluating, I don't mind the rush of rookie starters. Right now I see four rookies starting in Week 1, with WR Ace Sanders filling in for Justin Blackmon -- Sanders is a terror in space and could be a highlight guy -- and Luke Joeckel sliding in at right tackle. On defense, Dwayne Gratz and John Cyprien are at corner and safety, respectively. There's some necessity here, but it's also smart to use these guys as the Jags build a new foundation.
4. Chicago Bears
We've been talking about the Bears' offensive line going on five years, and they will unveil a new right side in 2013, with a pair of rookies starting in Week 1. Kyle Long, the guard out of Oregon, has looked really good in the preseason, and Jordan Mills, whom the Bears nabbed in round 5 out of Louisiana Tech, is starting at right tackle. Not only that, but the Bears also could be calling on Jon Bostic and Khaseem Greene early if there are any health issues at linebacker.
5. Detroit Lions
I put the Lions up so high because they have a pair of rookies in really important spots. Ezekiel Ansah needs to provide some push off the edge, and if he can, the Lions could have a defensive line that can collapse pockets regularly. They need good work from Ansah to balance what should be a great interior on that D-line. And Darius Slay is being asked to make plays -- typically battling a No. 2 wide receiver -- from the get-go. There's a lot riding on those two.
6. St. Louis Rams
The Rams were desperate to add explosiveness on offense, and Tavon Austin -- who they kept hidden away in the preseason -- is simply going to get a lot of touches. But I also wouldn't be surprised if Zac Stacy plays a big role in the run game. On defense, both Alec Ogletree and T.J. McDonald are penciled in to start. This team requires a lot from the rookie class.
7. Atlanta Falcons
Surprised to see Atlanta so high? Well, I doubt Thomas Dimitroff is, because he was aggressive in the draft with the intent of adding starting-level talent to his secondary. First-round pick Desmond Trufant is going to be on the field all game, and second-rounder Robert Alford should also see a lot of time in subpackages.
8. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers were really week on the interior of the defensive line last year, but they'll make major strides in 2013 with the help of their rookie class. Star Lotulelei will make an instant impact; he's an active run-stuffer who can push the pocket. And Kawann Short has looked good so far. The success of the run defense depends a lot on these two.
9. Green Bay Packers
When Aaron Rodgers has his blind side protected by a rookie, it's safe to say that'll get you on this list. David Bakhtiari, a fourth-round pick out of Colorado, will be on the spot. Elsewhere, Eddie Lacy will be a big factor in the growth of the run game, and Datone Jones will get starters' reps at defensive end in Dom Capers' 3-4.
10. New England Patriots
When relying on the health of Danny Amendola, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski is part of the plan, it's good to have a Plan B prepared, and the Patriots used the preseason to do so. Aaron Dobson is going to get his catches, but it appears Kenbrell Thompkins will too. Add in Josh Boyce, and the Patriots' depth at WR is all about rookies. Zach Sudfeld could also see the field at tight end. On defense, I can see Logan Ryan getting a lot of work at cornerback.