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THE SCOUT'S NOTEBOOK
The Lay of the Land
by Colin Lindsay
GBN Editor and Publisher
April 8, 2013
Looking for a little clarity on how the 2013 draft is evolving. You’ve probably come to the wrong place! Indeed, the more one tries to figure it out, the less one feels one knows. There is, for example, no consensus #1 prospect like Andrew Luck or Cam Newton the past couple of drafts. Kansas City still looks prepared to take Texas A&M OT Luke Joeckel with this year’s top pick, although its hardly a lock; however, it also appears that other teams would take different players if they had the #1 selection. As well, even with just 17 days to go until the actual draft, there still appears to be a significant amount of movement on draft boards around the league that may very well continue right up until draft day.
Who’s hot: Arguably the hottest player in the 2013 draft class looks to be Oregon DE/LB Dion Jordan. Until recently, NFL teams weren’t quite sure the 6-6, 248-pound former Duck was a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 edge rusher, but it appears that most of the team’s with top picks in this year’s opening round have concluded he has elite potential as either. There are still concerns about a bad shoulder and the fact that Jordan was never super productive Oregon, but it appears he has joined the top row of prospects for this year’s draft which also likely includes Joeckel, Central Michigan OT Eric Fisher and Florida DT Sharrif Floyd. At the same time, one continues to hear that just about every team in the league thinks that West Virginia WR Tavon Austin is the most dynamic playmaker in this year’s draft. Because he isn’t very big at barely 5-9, 174, Austin isn’t a lock to go in this year’s top 10 picks, but the sense is that teams with picks 6 through 10 are definitely giving him a long look.
At the same time, it appears that blue/red chip pot could be shrinking as the draft approaches. In particular, it is very possible that WRs Cordarelle Patterson of Tennessee and Cal’s Keenan Allen, along with CBs Xavier Rhodes of Florida State and Washington’s Desmond Trufant, who have all been considered mid-first round type prospects could be slipping. Patterson, for example, has uncommon physical skills, but isn’t a polished route-runner or receiver, while Allen, who was never a burner to begin with, will only try and work out for pro teams later this week after missing the combine and his pro day while rehabbing from a knee injury. Meanwhile, Rhodes has impressive size, but may be strictly limited to press coverage schemes as he isn’t all that quick or agile. For his part, scouts love Trufant’s feisty attitude and terrific recovery speed, but was way too inconsistent on tape last fall. The bottom is hardly going to fall out on any one of these guys, however, no one should be surprised if one or all slip into the bottom third of this year’s opening round.
The jury is also still deliberating about Florida State DE Bjoern Werner. A top 5 prospect heading into the combine, Werner’s status appears to have been in something of a free fall after he tested poorly in Indianapolis, especially given that he lacks ideal size and length for a prototype NFL DE. Bottom line is that Werner could be a real wild card on April 25th who could go literally go anywhere from just outside the top 10 to deep into the opening round. There are also some very curious vibes regarding Alabama OG Chance Warmack, who a lot of analysts have rated one of the top prospects period this year. However, Warmack isn’t getting much love from teams with top 10 picks this year. Indeed, while the rest of players considered to be top 10 prospects have been crisscrossing the country dropping in on teams with early selections, the only invites Warmack has apparently received to date are from Dallas and the Giants who pick 18th and 19th respectively this April. Of course, the danger for a guy like Warmack has always been that OG just isn’t a valued first-round position; plus he’s just not that athletic; indeed, we aren’t sure if anyone who runs a 5.5 40 can be a top 10 prospect just on principle. Time will tell.
At the same time, just about every year, a player or two not on the first-round radar pops up in the middle of the opening round. Last year, for example, DEs Bruce Irvin and Shea McClellin, neither of who was considered to be more than a fringe first-round candidate, were selected 15th and 19th overall respectively last April by Seattle and Chicago. Of course, NFL teams don’t make their picks off the consensus draft-guru grades, but use their own value board. And there’s just no accounting for taste! Guys not generally considered to be first-round characters this year, but who could pop up in the middle part include Florida State Menelik Watson, arguably the next best LT prospect this year after the big three of Joeckel, Fisher and Johnson, Boise State CB Jamar Taylor, Tennessee WR Justin Hunter and Florida State DE Tank Carradine.
