Jrry32's First Stafford Mock

[jrry32]

I am still working to come to terms with the trade. But I don't think I'll quit rooting for the Rams. I will however root for the Lions if they keep Goff. I did the same with Warner after the Rams let him go. This mock assumes the salary cap will be set around $185 million, give or take $5 million. I am hopeful the NFL will just freeze the cap instead of dropping it and spread losses into future years, but that might be too rational for the league to do. There are reports that some veterans are interested in ring chasing with the Rams and Stafford. I took that into account in this mock. I am assuming we traded our earliest third (pick #24) for Stafford. I might be wrong about that. The details have not been announced yet on that front.
Departing Free Agents
OLB Leonard Floyd
SS John Johnson III
CB Troy Hill
OL Austin Blythe
HB Malcolm Brown
TE Gerald Everett
WR Josh Reynolds
DL Morgan Fox
OLB Samson Ebukam

Cut
ILB Kenny Young

Restructure
DL Aaron Donald

Extension
QB Matt Stafford

Resignings
LS Jake McQuaide
CB Darious Williams (Second Round Tender)
ILB Travin Howard
OL Coleman Shelton
TE Johnny Mundt

Trades
Rams trade WR Cooper Kupp
Dolphins trade Round 2 Pick #4

The Dolphins want to help Tua out. They plan to draft Penei Sewell at #3, so they make a move for a top WR to play with DeVante Parker. I'm one of Cooper's biggest fans, but with Goff gone to Detroit and Van Jefferson waiting in the wings, it could make sense to trade him. He was Goff's security blanket, and Goff is no longer here.

Rams trade OT Joe Noteboom
Bears trade Round 5 Pick #20

There is some speculation that the Bears could cut one or both of their starting OTs. If they make a trade for a QB as expected, cap will be tight. Getting Noteboom to start at LT or RT on an affordable salary is something the Bears could use with their present cap situation.

Rams trade Round 2 Pick #4
Jaguars trade Round 2 Pick #13 and Round 4 Pick #1

The Jaguars trade up for CB Tyson Campbell.

Rams trade Round 2 Pick #25
Vikings trade Round 3 Pick #14 and Round 3 Pick #26

Vikings trade up for an OL.

Rams trade Round 3 Pick #14 and Round 3 Pick #39
Jaguars trade Round 3 Pick #1 and Round 4 Pick #25

We make another trade with the Jaguars. This time, we trade up.

Free Agency
Marvin Jones WR

Jones reportedly wants to follow Stafford to LA. He played at Cal and might be willing to sign a short-term, team-friendly deal to be on a winner.

Alex Mack C

Mack has mentioned playing for the 49ers, but I could see him chasing a ring with us. He played at Cal and is from Santa Barbara, CA. He's no longer elite, but he's still smart and effective.

Preston Smith OLB

We'll have to be creative with the cap to sign Smith, but I think he makes perfect sense as the Leonard Floyd replacement. He's coming off a down year, will likely be cut by the Packers, and should be amenable to one year "prove it" deal to earn his final big contract.

NFL Draft
Round 2 Pick #13 - D'Wayne Eskridge WR Western Michigan

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4hxASGk6RA

Analysis: I wouldn't be surprised if Eskridge finds his way into the starting lineup sooner than later. He's a dangerous returnman who has game-breaking speed (4.3 40), sure hands, and runs crisp routes. He's a twitchy athlete who reminds me a lot of Brandin Cooks coming out of Oregon State.

Round 3 Pick #1 - Quinn Meinerz OL Wisconsin-Whitewater

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvGv36ecl-w

Analysis: I expect Meinerz to be our Center of the future. He dominated at the Senior Bowl, possesses great power, has one heck of a mean streak, and moves well for a big guy. He'll develop for a year behind Alex Mack and be ready to start in 2022.

Round 3 Pick #26 - Aaron Robinson CB Central Florida

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdl0PfDue10

Analysis: Robinson is a sticky cover CB who should fit well in our scheme. He is a physical player who can play in the slot and outside. His lack of height and length (5'11" 190 with shortish arms) will be mitigated by our zone-heavy scheme. Could push David Long Jr. and Terrell Burgess for the nickel CB job as a rookie.

Round 3 Pick #37 - Jaylon Moore OL Western Michigan

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wlN0lj6MSY

Analysis: I think Moore could be the LT of the future. He just barely meets the length thresholds (6'4" 310 with 33.5" inch arms). But he has stellar feet, balance, and mirroring ability. He has some technical flaws to solve, but after a year, he should be ready to start at OT or OG (can play four OL positions).

Round 4 Pick #1 - Tommy Tremble TE/FB Notre Dame

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9CYOkec-UOM

Analysis: Tremble is a physical, punishing blocker who has a lot of upside in the passing game. He's raw as a pass catcher, but he's very athletic. As a blocker, he can lead the way as a FB or blow guys off the ball lining up inline. I love his physicality.

Round 4 Pick #25 - Jaret Patterson HB Buffalo

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwRiI0jVyLs

Analysis: Patterson and Rhamondre Stevenson are my two favorite Day 2/3 HBs. Patterson reminds me of Devonta Freeman. Small HB (5'8" 195) with elite feet and contact balance. Physical pass protector who has the tools to be a major threat in the passing game. Very creative runner with great vision.

Round 4 Pick #37 - Isaiah McDuffie LB Boston College

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEtGM4WwiFA

Analysis: McDuffie is an experienced and productive LB for Boston College. Undersized at 6'1" 225 pounds, he's a fast, instinctive player who makes plays all over the field. But what really impressed me was how good he was at fighting off blockers at his size. Think he could develop into a good LB for us.

Round 5 Pick #20 - Jonathan Adams Jr. WR Arkansas State

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fKQJZPVUkWk

Analysis: Intriguing developmental WR talent here in Adams. Props to @8to12 for bringing him up. He's listed at 6'3" 220 and plays to it. Bully while the ball is in the air and dominated in contested catch situations in college. Has the athleticism to create separation, but his route running needs a lot of work.

Round 6 Pick #25 - Chris Rumph II LB Duke

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEJSWt8KC9s

Analysis: Rumph has fallen down the board in my mocks because I am recognizing he's the type of guy I love who always falls. He's a great football player with savvy and instincts, but he's doesn't meet the NFL thresholds in a physical trait for his position (size; he's only 6'3" 235 and plays on the edge). Might need to slide inside.

Round 7 Pick #25 - Grant Stuard LB/S Houston

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJH_5gpjNac

Analysis: Stuard is undersized for a LB at 5'11" 230 with short arms, but I love him as a special teamer. He's fast, twitchy, and hits very hard. He tackles well in space too. He's a guy who will bring speed, relentlessness, and hitting to our coverage units. That'll give him time to develop as a LB (as a recent safety convert).

Projected Starters
QB: Matt Stafford
HB: Cam Akers
WR: Robert Woods
WR: Marvin Jones
WR: Van Jefferson
TE: Tyler Higbee
LT: Andrew Whitworth
LG: David Edwards
C: Alex Mack
RG: Austin Corbett
RT: Rob Havenstein

DE: Michael Brockers
NT: Sebastian Joseph-Day
DE: Aaron Donald
OLB: Terrell Lewis
ILB: Travin Howard
ILB: Micah Kiser
OLB: Preston Smith
CB: Jalen Ramsey
CB: Darious Williams
CB: David Long Jr.
FS: Jordan Fuller
SS: Terrell Burgess

K: Matt Gay
P: Johnny Hekker
LS: Jake McQuaide
KR: D'Wayne Eskridge
PR: D'Wayne Eskridge

 

[OldSchool]

Love it! Hearing a lot of Moore's name these days.

 

[CoachAllred]

Been waiting on this. Thanks Bro. Love your draft posts!!
one trophy just aint enough!!

 

[Memento]

Love this draft. Meinerz is a great young player who should be ready to step into the left guard role immediately. Still like Rumph and Tremble. Love Eskridge, but I still like Darden more, haha.

Another excellent job (and I'm glad that you're sticking with this team, for serious.)

 

[8to12]

Great Draft!
I think trading Kupp for Draft capital to land Eskridge is good for an advancement in McVay's Scheme considering the new QB. And, Adams will make a nice compliment to Eskridge.

I understand the pick of Meinerz for Center. He's definitely powerful and plays with a mean streak, but I didn't like his technique in many reps during Senior Bowl practice. A few times he turned his hips a full 90 degrees to try and counter the his opponents up field move and also locked his arm around the outside shoulder of the rusher. I hope it gets corrected through coaching at the next level because some of those habits will become penalties.

I think I am most excited about CB Robinson. He is aggressive and tenacious and think would win the Slot job easily over Long and Burgess. I think WR Cade Johnson (South Dakota St) was the only receiver to win a more than 1 rep against him during Senior Bowl week.

Last, talking about the Free Agent losses, FA signings, etc, I am wondering how the total dollars end up under the Cap? I know I may have fudged some numbers in my last Mock and may have to revisit it. However, at first glance of your Mock, my gut said there isn't enough space. I am thinking out loud here...so correct me if I am off, and I will ask you to help me understand extending Stafford after the the QB swap :

2021 Cap: we both figure 185- Mil
Rams total of Top 51 contracts 205-Mil ( per Overthecap)
Rams start the league year (20-Mil) over the Cap

calculated credits .... Restructure A. Donald 14.1 Mil
Cut Kenny Young 2.1 Mil
Trade of Kupp & Noteboom 11.0 Mil
---------------
total credits 27.2 Mil
Extension of Stafford saves..... ???


Calculated debits... Resignee's 5.5 Mil minimum
( Mundt, McQuaid, Howard, D. Williams -2nd rnd tender, Shelton )

Outside FA's Approx 16 - 18 Mil
Alex Mack last years Salary $10.5 / Overthecap 2020 valuation 4.5 Mil
Marvin Jones " " " ' 9.1 / " " ' " " " 13- Mil
Preston Smith " " " ' 16.5 / " " " " " " 5.6- Mil
I know Smith had a down year and can't expect an increase, and Mack being 36 should be on a short term deal at less money. But, Jones is in his prime and hasn't had a drop off, so how much less will he play for? I don't know how you can sign these 3 for than than 16 Mil Cap hit for 2021.

Last... Rookie signing Pool 5-Mil

Total debits look to be in range of 26.5 MIl

At this point, new signings and draft pool seem to be equivalent to the amount of Cuts, restructures. Which leaves the team still approx 20-Mil over the Cap. So, how much will the Rams save by extending Stafford?
Again, I ask this to help me understand the process in general and how you got under the Cap.

 

[jrry32]

Great Draft!
I think trading Kupp for Draft capital to land Eskridge is good for an advancement in McVay's Scheme considering the new QB. And, Adams will make a nice compliment to Eskridge.

I understand the pick of Meinerz for Center. He's definitely powerful and plays with a mean streak, but I didn't like his technique in many reps during Senior Bowl practice. A few times he turned his hips a full 90 degrees to try and counter the his opponents up field move and also locked his arm around the outside shoulder of the rusher. I hope it gets corrected through coaching at the next level because some of those habits will become penalties.

I think I am most excited about CB Robinson. He is aggressive and tenacious and think would win the Slot job easily over Long and Burgess. I think WR Cade Johnson (South Dakota St) was the only receiver to win a more than 1 rep against him during Senior Bowl week.

Last, talking about the Free Agent losses, FA signings, etc, I am wondering how the total dollars end up under the Cap? I know I may have fudged some numbers in my last Mock and may have to revisit it. However, at first glance of your Mock, my gut said there isn't enough space. I am thinking out loud here...so correct me if I am off, and I will ask you to help me understand extending Stafford after the the QB swap :

2021 Cap: we both figure 185- Mil
Rams total of Top 51 contracts 205-Mil ( per Overthecap)
Rams start the league year (20-Mil) over the Cap

calculated credits .... Restructure A. Donald 14.1 Mil
Cut Kenny Young 2.1 Mil
Trade of Kupp & Noteboom 11.0 Mil
---------------
total credits 27.2 Mil
Extension of Stafford saves..... ???


Calculated debits... Resignee's 5.5 Mil minimum
( Mundt, McQuaid, Howard, D. Williams -2nd rnd tender, Shelton )

Outside FA's Approx 16 - 18 Mil
Alex Mack last years Salary $10.5 / Overthecap 2020 valuation 4.5 Mil
Marvin Jones " " " ' 9.1 / " " ' " " " 13- Mil
Preston Smith " " " ' 16.5 / " " " " " " 5.6- Mil
I know Smith had a down year and can't expect an increase, and Mack being 36 should be on a short term deal at less money. But, Jones is in his prime and hasn't had a drop off, so how much less will he play for? I don't know how you can sign these 3 for than than 16 Mil Cap hit for 2021.

Last... Rookie signing Pool 5-Mil

Total debits look to be in range of 26.5 MIl

At this point, new signings and draft pool seem to be equivalent to the amount of Cuts, restructures. Which leaves the team still approx 20-Mil over the Cap. So, how much will the Rams save by extending Stafford?
Again, I ask this to help me understand the process in general and how you got under the Cap.

Without knowing what the salary cap is, it's hard to estimate deals. We're going to use some cap magic in FA to lower their first year cap hits (voidable years and large signing bonuses). The Stafford "extension" will significantly lower his cap hit this year. Ultimately, if we need to move additional money around, we can just restructure Ramsey. If Marvin Jones wants to come here, he's going to have to offer a discount. But we can still pay him a decent amount by spreading money around to future years. Also, keep in mind that we haver $6 million in rollover space.

 

[jrry32]

Love this draft. Meinerz is a great young player who should be ready to step into the left guard role immediately. Still like Rumph and Tremble. Love Eskridge, but I still like Darden more, haha.

Another excellent job (and I'm glad that you're sticking with this team, for serious.)

I don't know how fast Darden is and see him as a likely slot WR due to his frame. It'll depend on his 40. He has special twitch and ridiculously fluid hips, but Eskridge is built a lot thicker, looks quite a bit faster/more explosive, and is a more physical player. I see Eskridge as capable of playing any WR spot.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

Looks like a great off-season. I was looking at free agent edge rushers and agree that Preston Smith is a likely target.

If I was Miami, I would just draft Eskeridge, instead of trading for Kupp. It goes against my belief to go with established talent, but he comes with a contract. It also seems to go against Snead preferring proven players.

I really like Meinerz. I hope he's around that long. This team has been needing a top center for far far too long. I have not heard anything about his mental side of the game. Is he thought to be able to handle the position with such a big jump, even if he learns behind Mack?

And what's up with Mack? I would think he would name the Rams as well as the Niners as a place he'd like to play, considering that his dad had a good career here. Did the Rams organization do something to piss him off?

I keep wondering about Jason Verrett. He is a UFA. He played well against the Rams at least, but only being back one year is it likely he lands a big contract? Or does his injury past affect his deal. I'd like it if the Rams lured him away from the 49ers.

Another player I like that is expected to be released is WR Tyrell Williams. He has good stats with a 16 yard per catch average, coming off an injury that sidelined him all of 2020. It seems like he'd be a cheap signing and good value.

I see Rumph rated much higher right now. He looks like a good player.

 

[jrry32]

Looks like a great off-season. I was looking at free agent edge rushers and agree that Preston Smith is a likely target.

If I was Miami, I would just draft Eskeridge, instead of trading for Kupp. It goes against my belief to go with established talent, but he comes with a contract. It also seems to go against Snead preferring proven players.

I really like Meinerz. I hope he's around that long. This team has been needing a top center for far far too long. I have not heard anything about his mental side of the game. Is he thought to be able to handle the position with such a big jump, even if he learns behind Mack?

And what's up with Mack? I would think he would name the Rams as well as the Niners as a place he'd like to play, considering that his dad had a good career here. Did the Rams organization do something to piss him off?

I keep wondering about Jason Verrett. He is a UFA. He played well against the Rams at least, but only being back one year is it likely he lands a big contract? Or does his injury past affect his deal. I'd like it if the Rams lured him away from the 49ers.

Another player I like that is expected to be released is WR Tyrell Williams. He has good stats with a 16 yard per catch average, coming off an injury that sidelined him all of 2020. It seems like he'd be a cheap signing and good value.

I see Rumph rated much higher right now. He looks like a good player.

I think if we look to trade Kupp, he'll have a hot market. If it's not Miami, it'll be somewhere else. On Meinerz, we'll have to see on the mental side. I think after a redshirt year, he'll be able to physically handle the game.

As for Mack, I don't think he's related to that Mack. He named SF because of the Kyle Shanahan connection. But they have Weston Richburg. If they sign Mack and cut Richburg, he'd be worth considering, depending on his health. Tyrell Williams is a guy I've noted as well. He's a hell of a deep threat.

 

[Elmgrovegnome]

I think if we look to trade Kupp, he'll have a hot market. If it's not Miami, it'll be somewhere else. On Meinerz, we'll have to see on the mental side. I think after a redshirt year, he'll be able to physically handle the game.

As for Mack, I don't think he's related to that Mack. He named SF because of the Kyle Shanahan connection. But they have Weston Richburg. If they sign Mack and cut Richburg, he'd be worth considering, depending on his health. Tyrell Williams is a guy I've noted as well. He's a hell of a deep threat.

All of this time I thought Mack was Tom’s son.
The 49ers have been playing Brunskill at Center. I don’t know if he’s as good as he’s looked or if it’s because he is in a good Oline and it makes his job easier. But he’s played well against the Rams.

 

[den-the-coach]

Counselor great draft as always and quite a bit of wheeling & dealing and trading Kupp, wow, could lose a few fans there plus, quite a few small schools early and Rams usually draft from the larger programs, however, I love this with the likes of Eskridge, Meinerz & Tremble that would please me in so many ways and the depth of the draft is stellar.

For some reason I just don't see Mack going to the Rams, wanted him a few times and he always ends up elsewhere, reminds of the days I always wanted Charles Oakley to sign with the Lakers, just never happened.

 

[iamme33]

wow!!!! this is the draft i would just love to come true. love the ol picks and the rb i think will be way more important than most think because of injury to present players. than there is my favorite tremble who will be a hall of fame fb of coarse. you know there 32 we have an opening at head of scouting get your app in.

 

[Memento]

I don't know how fast Darden is and see him as a likely slot WR due to his frame. It'll depend on his 40. He has special twitch and ridiculously fluid hips, but Eskridge is built a lot thicker, looks quite a bit faster/more explosive, and is a more physical player. I see Eskridge as capable of playing any WR spot.

Respectfully disagree on Darden as being solely a slot receiver. Yes, he has a small-ish frame, but with his ability to run routes, his twitch, his speed, and underrated catch radius, I can easily see him being on the outside; if corners try to jam him, he's going to run by them.

 

[jrry32]

Disagree on Darden as being solely a slot receiver. Yes, he has a small-ish frame, but with his ability to run routes, his twitch, his speed, and underrated catch radius, I can easily see him being on the outside; if corners try to jam him, he's going to run by them.

I don't see that sort of speed. He strikes me as a guy who is quicker than fast. And with how small he is, bigger CBs are going to be able to disrupt him on the outside. Should be a nice slot WR, but he's more Jamison Crowder/Cole Beasley than DeSean Jackson/T.Y. Hilton. I guess we'll see when he runs his 40. Maybe I'm wrong about his speed. It's hard to evaluate against the lower level of competition. I'm confident in Eskridge's speed because he showed it at the Senior Bowl.

 

[tklongball]

@jrry32 Glad you are sticking around. You bring a lot to this forum.

 

[fanotodd]

Great work jerry. My favorite mock so far. I especially like how you planned for the immediate future of the OL, yet managed not to tinker so much with the 2021 starting lineup.

Trading both Kupp and Noteboom are big moves, but I think their value is better now than after another year.

 

[TexasRam]

Seems like a very doable scenario that would keep us competitive.

Something like this Kupp trade will probably have to go down considering his current value and our cap issues.

Hopefully your CB hits because having Long as our nickel is rather scary.

 

[CoachAllred]

@jrry32 @OldSchool

Just curious if any of you draft savvy guys could speak on the overall talent and depth
of the upcoming draft. Which positions may be stronger or deeper.

 

[jrry32]

@jrry32 @OldSchool

Just curious if any of you draft savvy guys could speak on the overall talent and depth
of the upcoming draft. Which positions may be stronger or deeper.

It seems like an above average draft. The QB class is talented. It's the deepest OT class in quite some time. The HB and WR classes are both good. And it's a very good LB class. On the flip side, it's a weak DL class, and the CB class is weaker than some recent ones.

 

[Rams43]

FWIW, this is my favorite mock to date. Take a bow, sir!

I’m hoping that Mack still has enough gas in the tank until we transition to Meinerz. Gonna trust that you’re right.