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Jrry32 Second to Last Mock Draft

Discussion in 'NFL DRAFT / COLLEGE FOOTBALL' started by jrry32, Apr 15, 2018.

  1. jrry32

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    Well, the Draft is less than two weeks away, so this will be my second to last mock. I was originally going to assume that Jeff Holland and Shaquem Griffin weren't available to get some new blood in the mock. In that scenario, Kemoko Turay would have been my first pick. However, I have decided to base player availability off of Dane Brugler's 7 Round Mock Draft. Nevertheless, I am not going to honor it strictly. Rather, I'll limit myself to players drafted in that range or later, so you'll see a few guys who were drafted a few slots ahead in his mock, but when we're talking about Day 3, you're not going to predict it perfectly, so I think the margin of error of a few draft slots is fair. The only player who was taken a lot higher than where I drafted him is Jack Cichy, but I think the injuries will hinder his draft stock more than Brugler does. With this being my second to last mock, there are no trades. My final mock might include a trade or two.

    NFL Draft
    Round 3 Pick #23 - Jeff Holland OLB Auburn

    View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MkzzTPeHBpQ

    Analysis: You may not have heard of Jeff Holland (until I put him in basically all of my mocks haha) as he only has one year of starting experience, but he made the most of that year by posting 45 tackles, 13 TFLs, 10 sacks, and 4 FFs in his only year starting in the SEC. What stood out to me while watching Holland is all of the stats that won't show up on the box score. I don't know if I've seen another guy in this class who pressures the QB as much as Holland. Watching his bowl game against UCF, he pressured the QB on almost every single passing play. At 6'1" 249 pounds with 33.5 arms and 10.5 hands, Holland has very long arms and big hands for his size. He definitely fits the mold of a 3-4 OLB. Holland uses his long arms and big hands to win consistently as an edge rusher. He has some of the most polished hand usage and sophisticated pass rush plans in this class. Holland actually has taken martial arts training to improve his hand fighting ability. As it stands now, his go-to moves are the two-handed swipe and the rip and run. Holland consistently wins off the edge by using his advanced hand usage, outstanding punch timing, natural leverage, and polished body positioning to thwart the attempts of tackles to push him past the pocket. Holland's powerful lower body and great balance also allow him to flatten out when turning the corner and prevent OTs from riding him past the QB. Young pass rushers should watch Holland's film to learn how to use their inside arm to soften the edge. Simply put, Holland won't be a workout warrior and doesn't have the prettiest looking body, but he wins as a pass rusher with technical skill, football IQ, heavy hands, power, balance, and tenaciousness. He actually posted comparable production to Carl Lawson, who posted 8.5 sacks as a rookie with the Bengals in 2017. As a run defender, Holland uses his natural leverage, power, and advanced hand usage to set a hard edge. He has some tightness in his lower body which limits his ability to drop into coverage and prevents him from reaching his full potential as a finisher and as a run defender in space, but Holland is a tenacious pass rusher who should drive NFL QBs crazy with his constant pressure.

    Round 4 Pick #11 - Geron Christian OT Louisville

    View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-qsN0QHcuQ

    Analysis: Geron Christian started every game during his college career for Louisville, including his entire true freshman season. At 6'5" 298 pounds with 35 inch arms and 10.75 inch hands, Christian is not lacking for NFL measurables. Louisville's scheme asks their OTs to flip between LT and RT during the game, so Christian has ample experience at both spots, which makes him an ideal player for a swing OT role as a rookie. As a pass protector, Christian is remarkably steady. He is a natural bender who sits comfortably in his space, mirrors with ease, has light feet and smooth change of directional skills, and positions himself well to not give DLs easy pressure or sacks. Christian lost very few snaps in pass protection in the film I watched. He uses his length, smooth athleticism, and great balance to frustrate pass rushers trying to get the better of him. The only two criticisms I have of him as a pass protector are that he needs to be more precise with his punch placement and he needs to get stronger. With his punch placement, his hands have a tendency to end up outside on the DL. With his functional strength, he needs a stronger anchor against bull rushers. He does a nice job of recovering when he's initial beat with a bull rush, but he gives a bit too much ground at times. As a run blocker, Christian definitely needs to get stronger. He doesn't generate a lot of movement in the ground game. He's more an angle and positioning blocker. He's steady in that regard and rarely blows assignments, but he also doesn't blow people off the ball. All in all, he's a guy who can step in and hold his own as a rookie swing OT, and if he gets stronger in the NFL, he has starting OT potential down the line. At only 21 years old, Christian has time to develop his game.

    Round 4 Pick #35 - Jack Cichy ILB Wisconsin

    View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FTirt1ZQFI4

    Analysis: Cichy is just a really good football player and should make all of you worried about Littleton quite happy. The problem for him is his injury history. He missed all of 2017 with a torn ACL, and he missed half of the 2016 season with a torn pectoral muscle. However, I think it's worth the risk because he's a Day 2 talent on tape. Cichy is a very smart and sound football player who possesses good athleticism for his size. At 6'2" 238 pounds with solid arm length, Cichy has the dimensions of a NFL ILB. While Cichy won't overpower blockers, he is quite adept at slipping blocks due to his advanced hand usage and agility. He sifts through traffic well, plays with consistent gap integrity, and tackles well, even in space. Cichy also reads his keys well and rarely takes false steps. The thing that stands out the most is Cichy's ability to close when he gets a path to the runner. He may not run a 4.4 40, but he plays fast. As a blitzer, Cichy is highly effective due to his outstanding anticipation of the snap count and his hand usage when rushing the passer. He puts a lot of pressure on the QB when used on A-gap blitzes. His cover skills are good; although, he's a better zone defender than man defender. Cichy also has that sort of annoying style that gets into the heads of offensive players. He plays through the whistle, is constantly buzzing around opposing players, and has a non-stop motor. All in all, Cichy checks all the boxes and should contribute in the NFL if he stays healthy. He'll be great depth at ILB and can contribute on special teams.

    Round 4 Pick #36 - John Kelly Jr. HB Tennessee

    View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-jRr8UwgEVs

    Analysis: John Kelly might be the most underrated HB in this Draft. He was unlucky enough to play on a Tennessee team that couldn't run block or throw the ball. It reminded me of Todd Gurley last year. He was constantly hit behind the LOS and rarely had a decent running lane. This is a guy who ran for more yardage last year than Alvin Kamara on less carries. Kelly Jr. doesn't have Kamara's speed, but like Kamara, I expect him to be a much better pro than college player. At 5'10" 210, Kelly has a good HB build. He combines plus quickness with great balance, outstanding strength, and a real mean streak. He rarely goes down on first contact, he runs angry, and he finishes with authority. He also has the quickness to make guys miss in the back-field and in the open-field. Kelly only has solid overall speed, but he has good burst. In the passing game, he's a very dangerous receiver due to the sharpness of his routes and cuts and his soft hands (as well as his ability to make people miss and break tackles in space). His pass protection needs work, but he doesn't lack the strength or willingness. He looks to punish people when blocking, but he needs to learn how to use his hands better, stop ducking his head into blocks, stay square to defenders, and be more patient. I expect him to learn quickly in the NFL. Overall, he has the potential to be a three-down HB and a very dangerous receiver in the passing game.

    Round 6 Pick #2 - Tony Adams C/OG N.C. State

    View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JhYeqHA2Ik

    Analysis: Tony Adams is a guy I just recently stumbled upon after reading Lance Zierlein's sleeper list. As y'all know, I'm a big fan of Zierlein's OL evaluations, and I must agree that Adams is a sleeper in this Draft. At 6'1" 302 pounds, Adams is going to be overlooked for his lack of height. However, he has 33.5 inch arms, which more than compensate for that lack of height. Adams is a four-year starter at RG and team captain. He did play some Center as a freshman, and that's where I think he ends up in the NFL. Adams is a former high school wrestler and tennis star. You can see both of those sports in his game as he has the upper body strength and hand-eye coordination that you expect from a wrestler with the quality footwork and great balance you expect from a tennis player. Adams rarely falls off blocks, positions himself beautifully when executing his blocking assignments, and is very comfortable blocking in space and on the second level. He times his punches well, he's very reliable in pass protection, and he executes his assignments consistently as a run blocker. What are his weaknesses? He only possesses average overall strength, so he doesn't generate a lot of push in the running game, and he can get pushed back by very strong DTs. Nevertheless, he uses angles and positioning well in the running game to open up holes, and he competes hard as a pass protector. I think Adams would be an outstanding fit in our scheme because of his versatility and how well he fits the Center position in Kromer's blocking scheme. This kid may not be a HOFer, but he strikes me as a guy who has the ability to be a very solid starting Center for a long time in the right scheme.

    Round 6 Pick #9 - Tegray Scales ILB Indiana

    View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=78bZeo8OqcE

    Analysis: Tegray Scales has been a tremendously productive LB for Indiana with 214 tackles, 36.5 TFLs, 13 sacks, and 3 Ints over the past two years. At 6'0" 230 pounds with nearly 31 inch arms and 9 inch hands, Scales is on the small side for a 3-4 ILB. However, Scales plays the game with a ferocious brand of physicality and a real mean streak. While his timed speed is nothing special, Scales plays fast and absolutely flies to the football. There are times when Scales knows where the play is going before the ball is even snapped. It is clear that he invests a lot of time into film review. He is rarely in the wrong spot, he rarely takes false steps, and he is always around the football. In coverage, Scales is adequate but not elite. He doesn't possess overly fluid hips and is a bit stiff in his backpedal. Nevertheless, he looks better in man coverage because of his short-area quickness and instincts. Scales truly shines as a run stopper and a blitzer. As a blitzer, he times his blitzes incredibly well, uses his hands to fight off blocks, and is relentless in his pursuit of the QB. As a run stopper, Scales is fearless taking on blockers and flies to the football. Scales is a bit limited by his short arms and lack of size. This makes it difficult for him to come unglued once OLs latch onto him. However, he's a strong and physical players who will stack up blocks and tenaciously fight to get off blocks. I've seen him stand up and fight off Billy Price. He also has absolutely no fear when it comes to meeting pullers and lead blockers in the hole. Scales is undersized, but he loves to bang and finds the ball quickly. Scales looks like he's shot out of a cannon once he determines where the ball is going. He does need to do a better job of bringing his feet with him as a tackler, as he'll miss tackles at times by coming in a little too hot, but he brings bad intentions when he hits, and guys usually go down quickly.

    Round 6 Pick #20 - Logan Woodside QB Toledo

    View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9kMKXWITxH8

    Analysis: Woodside is my favorite Day 3 developmental QB in this Draft. As you all know, I look for traits in players on Day 3. What stands out to me in Woodside's game are his mental processing speed, ability to throw with anticipation, and his touch. At 6'1" 213 pounds, Woodside is smaller than average for a NFL QB, but he does have nearly 10 inch hands (for all those hand size worrywarts out there) and is a good athlete. He was an extremely productive player at Toledo, throwing for over 10,000 yards, 93 TDs to 25 Ints, and a 65.1% completion percentage in his three years as a starter. Woodside has below average arm strength, which manifests itself on sideline routes to the field side. Toledo's offense did force Woodside to make challenging throws. Woodside responded by doing so in impressive fashion. He made a number of "wow" throws in each game. His ability to thread the needle into tight windows was constantly on display at Toledo. Woodside's quality accuracy and tremendous touch allowed him to make a number of NFL caliber throws. His anticipation and mental processing ability also stood out in a major way. Those three traits (mental processing speed, anticipation, and touch) are NFL starting QB caliber traits. Woodside also has polished mechanics, good pocket movement, and the willingness to stand tall and deliver despite knowing he'll take a shot. He's not a QB who abandons the pocket early or sees ghosts when pressure is getting home. On the negative side, I'd like to see Woodside do a better job of finding his HB out of the back-field when blitzed, avoid taking unnecessary sacks, and avoid bad decisions. Woodside has a bit of a hero complex, so he needs to learn to not force the ball late in downs. I believe he's a great developmental prospect for McVay to develop because his mental traits and technical skill are both highly impressive. McVay is the type of coach who can scheme around physical limitations, and Woodside is the type of QB who can read coverages, find the open WR, and deliver the ball in the right spot. I think he can execute our scheme.

    Round 6 Pick #21 - Damon Webb FS Ohio State

    View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0C7fnq5Kvo

    Analysis: Webb started his career at CB at Ohio State before moving to safety in 2016. In 2017, Webb recorded 62 tackles and picked off 5 passes. He showed marked improvement at safety as the year progressed. At 5'11" 209 pounds, Webb is a tad undersized, but he makes up for that with his natural coverage ability, quality angles, and reliable tackling. Webb is an intelligent player who brings a lot of versatility to the position. He can cover the slot WR, play single-high, play Cover 2, and even come down into the box. He's not an especially great player in the box due to his lack of size, but he can hold his own. One area where he improved significantly in 2017 was reading the QB while playing deep zone coverage. He showed off quality range while playing single-high and the ball-skills to come down with interceptions. He also brings a lot of energy and effort while on the field. You never have to worry about whether he'll take plays off or quit before the whistle. Webb is a solid athlete for a safety, but he's not athletic enough to play anything other than slot CB if needed. I'd like to see Webb get a bit stronger, as he struggles at times to tackle bigger players in space. All in all, Webb is a smart, sound football player who has the potential to develop into a starting FS in Wade's defense.

    Projected Starters
    QB: Jared Goff
    HB: Todd Gurley
    WR: Brandin Cooks
    WR: Robert Woods
    WR: Cooper Kupp
    TE: Gerald Everett
    LT: Andrew Whitworth
    LG: Rodger Saffold
    C: John Sullivan
    RG: Jamon Brown
    RT: Rob Havenstein

    SDE: Michael Brockers
    NT: Ndamukong Suh
    DT: Aaron Donald
    WOLB: Matt Longacre
    WILB: Mark Barron
    SILB: Cory Littleton
    SOLB: Samson Ebukam
    LCB: Marcus Peters
    RCB: Aqib Talib
    SLCB: Nickell Robey-Coleman
    FS: LaMarcus Joyner
    SS: John Johnson III

    K: Greg Zuerlein
    P: Johnny Hekker
    LS: Jake McQuaide
     
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  2. den-the-coach

    Fifty-four Forty or Fight
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    @jrry32 I love the draft, however, I've read other threads that Holland is not athletic enough for Phillips,that Phillips prefers players more athletic like Kemoko Turay for example and even Kylie Fitts (later) so in your opinion is Holland limited athletically?

    Just wanted feedback there, but I love this draft, it encapsulates everything the Rams need including a Quarterback that I love in Logan Woodside. Also glad you went with a bigger running back in John Kelly, to me he would be the perfect compliment to Gurley.

    Christian would be perfect for Kromer and Tony Adams would offer depth behind Saffold & Brown and would battle Blthye being the first linemen off the bench for center and guard. Damon Webb has some upside and would be great for special teams with Cody Davis now in Jacksonville.
     
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  3. A.J. Hicks

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    Very well written analysis and draft. I would be all for this draft
     
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  4. Ram65

    Rams Time To Turn It Around
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    Liked him a lot when you first posted him in one of your drafts. The guy makes plays.

    Just what the Rams need.

    I don't know if he is 5'10" but he packs a punch. Good backup for TG.

    Interested to read your response to Den. I like his edge rushing ability.

    Overall the draft covers Rams needs for now and the future.
     
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  5. Dieter the Brock

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    #5 Dieter the Brock, Apr 15, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2018
    What are your thoughts on Chase Litton? He's the day 3 developmental QB i think looks promising
     
  6. jrry32

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    I can't make any guarantees, but I think Wade cares more about ability to pressure the QB than anything else. Here are two guys he used quite well in Denver:
    http://draftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=119720&draftyear=2015&genpos=DE
    http://draftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=120976&draftyear=2014&genpos=DE

    Here's Longacre:
    http://draftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=96500&draftyear=2015&genpos=DE

    Here's one of the guys he drafted and started in Dallas:
    http://www.draftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=12603&draftyear=2007&genpos=de

    Here's Holland:
    http://www.draftscout.com/members/ratings/tsx_profile.php?pyid=1002911

    A lot of similarities in how these guys tested. IMO, Wade wants guys who can get after the QB. He doesn't care if you have the prettiest athletic testing numbers. And on the subject of Kylie Fitts, he was a guy I considered in 6th Round. I didn't think he was worth a draft pick. He's a good athlete, but he's a square rusher who didn't show me traits that I thought would translate to beating NFL OTs.
     
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  7. dieterbrock

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    Love the work as always. Question I have, based on what you wrote up, why/how would Christian last until round 4?
    Curious to see if they take a flyer on a QB round 6, who probably would be PS material. I like the mechanics of Riley Ferguson, but the kid needs to put some weight on
     
  8. jrry32

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    There are a lot of OTs in this class with developmental potential. Hard for anyone to guess who will be there in the 4th. I am just going off of the projections I see and the Brugler mock draft.
     
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  9. BonifayRam

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    I like Holland a lot. I see him as the perfect replacement for Conner Barwin as the primary Strong Side Edge Rusher. Of course the big question is how long will he remain on the boards. Gil Brandt did not even list Holland in his top 150 prospects. Your guy Lance Zierlein has Holland listed close to where the Rams draft on the third day of the draft with our 4th rd selection #111. Lance listed Holland as the #106 best prospect. That would make him the 5th best 34 defense Edge rusher in his excellent body of work.

    Since Holland is a true 34 D player over half of the teams see little or no value in his selection as early as the Rams do...thus I see a little falling not much but a bit with Holland. I would have no problem with a gamble & plan to select Holland early on the third day.
     
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