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- Dec 3, 2013
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1. Tampa Bay Bucs - QB Jameis Winston, FSU - I still think Marcus Mariota has a chance to be selected here, much more than given credit for. As Yahoo's Charles Robinson reported, the Glazers have final say in signing off on Winston. But mocks are for what I think will happen, and most signs still point to Jameis. Winston can be a quality starter in the NFL.
2. Cleveland Browns (via Tennessee Titans) - QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon - The Browns trade picks 12, 19 and a 2016 3rd-round selection. After the GM and owner made the wrong quarterback choice last year, there is pressure to make the decision right. Mariota will do just that. I expect the Titans to talk themselves into sticking with Zach Mettenberger in the next two-plus weeks. It is the wrong decision, but more on that later.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - DL Leonard Williams, USC - Everyone is mocking an edge rusher here. I bet the Jaguars think they can get their edge rusher, for the role he will play, in the second round (Eli Harold, for example). Yes, the team signed Jared Odrick to play either the big end or 3 technique. I think the team is concerned with Sen’Derrick Marks’ availability early in the season. Marks’ contract is also very easy to move on from, if necessary. Adding another versatile piece up front that could be viewed as “safe” makes sense.
4. Oakland Raiders - WR Amari Cooper, Alabama - I think Reggie McKenzie has his eye on Bud Dupree, so a trade down is very possible. But with Amari on the board, he is a logical fit. Amari could thrive in this offense, which would get the ball in his hands and allow him to create yards after the catch.
5. Washington Redskins - OL Brandon Scherff, Iowa - Mimicking the recent approach of a division rival. I bet many teams will think Scherff is this year’s Zack Martin. Some might think this is early for a guard. Maybe, but acquiring prospects with traits that translate is paramount.
6. New York Jets - EDGE Dante Fowler Jr, Florida - The first edge rusher off the board. I think Fowler is a good player, but not the quality of a team’s No. 1 disruptor. He won’t have to be on the Jets, as they have multiple interior defensive linemen who create havoc. Fowler is always looking to separate and has attacked from multiple alignments.
7. Chicago Bears - WR Kevin White, WVU - There are only a handful of foundation pieces in this draft. I think Kevin White is one. Place him across from Alshon Jeffery and you have two receivers who can win in contested situations. White also offers yards after catch ability.
8. Atlanta Falcons - EDGE Alvin Dupree, Kentucky - As previously mentioned, Dupree could be selected much earlier. In fact, he could be the top edge off the board. His tape doesn’t match it - Dupree was asked to play multiple spots and never nailed down one area where he wins. But teams will like his “personality” and ridiculous athletic traits.
9. New York Giants - T Andrus Peat, Stanford - The Giants tend to invest in pass rushers, wide receivers or OL early. Do not be surprised if Peat is the first true tackle off the board. I think La’El Collins is also a tackle in the NFL and rank him higher, but teams could view Peat as the top “true” tackle.
10. St. Louis Rams - OL La’El Collins, LSU - If Collins is selected, who plays LT? Either way, you have two powerful blockers along the offensive line in an offense that will need to keep its quarterback clean in the pocket and open running lanes.
11. Minnesota Vikings - CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State -Everything points to the Vikings selecting a cornerback. So will it happen? I could see one of three names: Waynes, Byron Jones and Kevin Johnson. Waynes is a pure press corner (or man in his zone) who uses length and frame to stick with receivers and combat the catch point.
12. Tennessee Titans (via Cleveland Browns) - RB Todd Gurley, Georgia - If the Titans trade out of No. 2, they are sticking with Zach Mettenberger. Bishop Sankey is not a primary back. Why not dampen Mettenberger’s responsibilities with a foundation piece of an offense. Todd Gurley is clearly the top ball carrier in this class.
13. New Orleans Saints - EDGE Vic Beasley, Clemson - My buddy Tony Pauline recently stated the Saints are very interested in Beasley. Why wouldn’t every team be interested in a ridiculous edge rusher with unreal athleticism who can at least offer outside speed with bend. It lines up perfectly with a need for the Saints.
14. Miami Dolphins - WR DeVante Parker, Louisville - I know the Dolphins just added Greg Jennings, but you don’t pass one Parker for Jennings. The team visited with a number of receivers during the process. That might not help pinpoint a specific name, but it conveys a general feeling they will be adding to the position early.
15. San Francisco 49ers - CB Byron Jones, UConn - Byron Jones could be the first corner off the board. Teams will love his size, athleticism and that his medicals checked out. Also, his experience at safety is a plus. Jimmie Ward should man the slot.
16. Houston Texans - DL Arik Armstead, Oregon - Armstead’s projection is a difficult one in terms of draft selection. I could see him in the top 10 if a front office views him as a comparable talent to Leonard Williams. The flashes are there to warrant it. On the other hand, Armstead will not fit every base scheme and disappeared for stretches.
17. San Diego Chargers - RB Melvin Gordon III, Wisconsin - Two running backs in the top 20? Let’s destroy the narrative, NFL. Again, I’ll bring back the “foundation piece” logic. A team could look at other non-RB talents in this class and view them as role players. Then they could look at a ball carrier and see a prospect who would be the top talent at that position on the roster.
18. Kansas City Chiefs - LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA - The Chiefs have to improve their inside linebackers. With so much talent up front, Kendricks would thrive in Kansas City. Add in the fact Derrick Johnson is in a contract year coming off injury, and it makes a lot of sense.
19. Tennessee Titans (via Cleveland Browns) - WR Breshad Perriman, UCF - In this mock, the Titans added a RB to go with Mettenberger. Now they add a receiver. The team has looked at a number of top 50 receivers, and I think the NFL likes Perriman more than many on the outside.
20. Philadelphia Eagles - OL Donovan Smith, Penn State - Surprise? Smith checks all the boxes the Eagles (apparently) look for: Senior Bowler, athletic and visited the team’s facility. I don’t love Smith’s game, but teams who do likely think he can play guard and tackle. They must be able to unpack the traits he offers.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - T D.J. Humphries, Florida - I don’t love this fit. However, both of the Bengals’ tackles are entering contract years. Humphries, Cedric Ogbuehi, Ereck Flowers, etc. are all options. Humphries has added weight during the draft process and now sits above 300 pounds.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest - Kevin Johnson could be selected much earlier. The Wake Forest corner has awareness and finds the football in both man and zone situations. There is little wasted movement to his game and he attacks the catch point.
23. Detroit Lions - DT Danny Shelton, Washington - I know, I know. “But Shelton and Haloti Ngata will play the same position.” From watching the Panthers so closely, they have had success putting two “nose tackles” on the field in high run percentage downs, then they use a rotation from there. Key word: rotation. It will be a major focus of Shelton’s career. I think Shelton is a good player, but his evaluation was inflated early in the process. Ngata is also on a one year deal.
24. Arizona Cardinals - EDGE Shane Ray, Missouri - This might be seen as a “drop” by some, but I think this is where Ray belongs. He tested as a bad athlete (in the 22nd percentile for his position) but does maximize it on the field and possesses a great motor. Some teams have medical questions, per multiple reports.
25. Carolina Panthers - T Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M - Looking at the Panthers' offseason OT moves, they likely think the team can win with a combination of Michael Oher, Nate Chandler, Mike Remmers and Jonathan Martin. Ogbuehi seems on track to play in his rookie year, but it might not be a complete necessity (in the Panthers' minds). Ogbuehi does need to fix his punch timing.
26. Baltimore Ravens - CB Marcus Peters, Washington - I know the Ravens just gave Jimmy Smith a large contract. But Lardarius Webb is declining and the team has struggled to add corner talent since. The Ravens are known to work with prospects and have patience for personalities more than others.
27. Dallas Cowboys - EDGE Randy Gregory, Nebraska - I think Gregory’s “fall” ends here. Talent wise, Gregory is near the top. The Cowboys will likely be without Greg Hardy for 10 games, so they still have a monstrous edge rushing need. Enter Gregory who has speed and power despite playing around 230 lbs.
28. Denver Broncos - OL Jake Fisher, Oregon - The Broncos have needs at tackle and guard. Fisher has played both tackle spots along with guard and has athleticism to be used in Gary Kubiak’s zone scheme. It is a great fit.
29. Indianapolis Colts - S Landon Collins, Alabama - The Colts need a long-term starter at both of their safety spots. Collins is likely best in a strong safety role but has experience in multiple alignments due to Alabama’s advanced coverages.
30. Green Bay Packers - DB Eric Rowe, Utah - This fit makes too much sense, and it is rarely mocked. Rowe will be evaluated at both corner and safety. He is the best athlete among defensive backs this year and is long, two traits the Packers look for at the position.
31. New Orleans Saints (via Seahawks) - G Cameron Erving, FSU - Yes, the Saints added Max Unger. But a hole at one interior OL spot is glaring. Erving showed promise at left tackle, however, he solidified the Noles’ OL while at center. He is being evaluated at all three spots.
32. New England Patriots - LB Shaq Thompson, Washington - A forward thinking Bill Belichick could notice his lack of second level coverage defenders and love Shaq in this role. We have seen Thompson play man, stay patient and attack the ball at the catch point. He could be Mayo’s replacement as well.
2. Cleveland Browns (via Tennessee Titans) - QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon - The Browns trade picks 12, 19 and a 2016 3rd-round selection. After the GM and owner made the wrong quarterback choice last year, there is pressure to make the decision right. Mariota will do just that. I expect the Titans to talk themselves into sticking with Zach Mettenberger in the next two-plus weeks. It is the wrong decision, but more on that later.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars - DL Leonard Williams, USC - Everyone is mocking an edge rusher here. I bet the Jaguars think they can get their edge rusher, for the role he will play, in the second round (Eli Harold, for example). Yes, the team signed Jared Odrick to play either the big end or 3 technique. I think the team is concerned with Sen’Derrick Marks’ availability early in the season. Marks’ contract is also very easy to move on from, if necessary. Adding another versatile piece up front that could be viewed as “safe” makes sense.
4. Oakland Raiders - WR Amari Cooper, Alabama - I think Reggie McKenzie has his eye on Bud Dupree, so a trade down is very possible. But with Amari on the board, he is a logical fit. Amari could thrive in this offense, which would get the ball in his hands and allow him to create yards after the catch.
5. Washington Redskins - OL Brandon Scherff, Iowa - Mimicking the recent approach of a division rival. I bet many teams will think Scherff is this year’s Zack Martin. Some might think this is early for a guard. Maybe, but acquiring prospects with traits that translate is paramount.
6. New York Jets - EDGE Dante Fowler Jr, Florida - The first edge rusher off the board. I think Fowler is a good player, but not the quality of a team’s No. 1 disruptor. He won’t have to be on the Jets, as they have multiple interior defensive linemen who create havoc. Fowler is always looking to separate and has attacked from multiple alignments.
7. Chicago Bears - WR Kevin White, WVU - There are only a handful of foundation pieces in this draft. I think Kevin White is one. Place him across from Alshon Jeffery and you have two receivers who can win in contested situations. White also offers yards after catch ability.
8. Atlanta Falcons - EDGE Alvin Dupree, Kentucky - As previously mentioned, Dupree could be selected much earlier. In fact, he could be the top edge off the board. His tape doesn’t match it - Dupree was asked to play multiple spots and never nailed down one area where he wins. But teams will like his “personality” and ridiculous athletic traits.
9. New York Giants - T Andrus Peat, Stanford - The Giants tend to invest in pass rushers, wide receivers or OL early. Do not be surprised if Peat is the first true tackle off the board. I think La’El Collins is also a tackle in the NFL and rank him higher, but teams could view Peat as the top “true” tackle.
10. St. Louis Rams - OL La’El Collins, LSU - If Collins is selected, who plays LT? Either way, you have two powerful blockers along the offensive line in an offense that will need to keep its quarterback clean in the pocket and open running lanes.
11. Minnesota Vikings - CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State -Everything points to the Vikings selecting a cornerback. So will it happen? I could see one of three names: Waynes, Byron Jones and Kevin Johnson. Waynes is a pure press corner (or man in his zone) who uses length and frame to stick with receivers and combat the catch point.
12. Tennessee Titans (via Cleveland Browns) - RB Todd Gurley, Georgia - If the Titans trade out of No. 2, they are sticking with Zach Mettenberger. Bishop Sankey is not a primary back. Why not dampen Mettenberger’s responsibilities with a foundation piece of an offense. Todd Gurley is clearly the top ball carrier in this class.
13. New Orleans Saints - EDGE Vic Beasley, Clemson - My buddy Tony Pauline recently stated the Saints are very interested in Beasley. Why wouldn’t every team be interested in a ridiculous edge rusher with unreal athleticism who can at least offer outside speed with bend. It lines up perfectly with a need for the Saints.
14. Miami Dolphins - WR DeVante Parker, Louisville - I know the Dolphins just added Greg Jennings, but you don’t pass one Parker for Jennings. The team visited with a number of receivers during the process. That might not help pinpoint a specific name, but it conveys a general feeling they will be adding to the position early.
15. San Francisco 49ers - CB Byron Jones, UConn - Byron Jones could be the first corner off the board. Teams will love his size, athleticism and that his medicals checked out. Also, his experience at safety is a plus. Jimmie Ward should man the slot.
16. Houston Texans - DL Arik Armstead, Oregon - Armstead’s projection is a difficult one in terms of draft selection. I could see him in the top 10 if a front office views him as a comparable talent to Leonard Williams. The flashes are there to warrant it. On the other hand, Armstead will not fit every base scheme and disappeared for stretches.
17. San Diego Chargers - RB Melvin Gordon III, Wisconsin - Two running backs in the top 20? Let’s destroy the narrative, NFL. Again, I’ll bring back the “foundation piece” logic. A team could look at other non-RB talents in this class and view them as role players. Then they could look at a ball carrier and see a prospect who would be the top talent at that position on the roster.
18. Kansas City Chiefs - LB Eric Kendricks, UCLA - The Chiefs have to improve their inside linebackers. With so much talent up front, Kendricks would thrive in Kansas City. Add in the fact Derrick Johnson is in a contract year coming off injury, and it makes a lot of sense.
19. Tennessee Titans (via Cleveland Browns) - WR Breshad Perriman, UCF - In this mock, the Titans added a RB to go with Mettenberger. Now they add a receiver. The team has looked at a number of top 50 receivers, and I think the NFL likes Perriman more than many on the outside.
20. Philadelphia Eagles - OL Donovan Smith, Penn State - Surprise? Smith checks all the boxes the Eagles (apparently) look for: Senior Bowler, athletic and visited the team’s facility. I don’t love Smith’s game, but teams who do likely think he can play guard and tackle. They must be able to unpack the traits he offers.
21. Cincinnati Bengals - T D.J. Humphries, Florida - I don’t love this fit. However, both of the Bengals’ tackles are entering contract years. Humphries, Cedric Ogbuehi, Ereck Flowers, etc. are all options. Humphries has added weight during the draft process and now sits above 300 pounds.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers - CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest - Kevin Johnson could be selected much earlier. The Wake Forest corner has awareness and finds the football in both man and zone situations. There is little wasted movement to his game and he attacks the catch point.
23. Detroit Lions - DT Danny Shelton, Washington - I know, I know. “But Shelton and Haloti Ngata will play the same position.” From watching the Panthers so closely, they have had success putting two “nose tackles” on the field in high run percentage downs, then they use a rotation from there. Key word: rotation. It will be a major focus of Shelton’s career. I think Shelton is a good player, but his evaluation was inflated early in the process. Ngata is also on a one year deal.
24. Arizona Cardinals - EDGE Shane Ray, Missouri - This might be seen as a “drop” by some, but I think this is where Ray belongs. He tested as a bad athlete (in the 22nd percentile for his position) but does maximize it on the field and possesses a great motor. Some teams have medical questions, per multiple reports.
25. Carolina Panthers - T Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M - Looking at the Panthers' offseason OT moves, they likely think the team can win with a combination of Michael Oher, Nate Chandler, Mike Remmers and Jonathan Martin. Ogbuehi seems on track to play in his rookie year, but it might not be a complete necessity (in the Panthers' minds). Ogbuehi does need to fix his punch timing.
26. Baltimore Ravens - CB Marcus Peters, Washington - I know the Ravens just gave Jimmy Smith a large contract. But Lardarius Webb is declining and the team has struggled to add corner talent since. The Ravens are known to work with prospects and have patience for personalities more than others.
27. Dallas Cowboys - EDGE Randy Gregory, Nebraska - I think Gregory’s “fall” ends here. Talent wise, Gregory is near the top. The Cowboys will likely be without Greg Hardy for 10 games, so they still have a monstrous edge rushing need. Enter Gregory who has speed and power despite playing around 230 lbs.
28. Denver Broncos - OL Jake Fisher, Oregon - The Broncos have needs at tackle and guard. Fisher has played both tackle spots along with guard and has athleticism to be used in Gary Kubiak’s zone scheme. It is a great fit.
29. Indianapolis Colts - S Landon Collins, Alabama - The Colts need a long-term starter at both of their safety spots. Collins is likely best in a strong safety role but has experience in multiple alignments due to Alabama’s advanced coverages.
30. Green Bay Packers - DB Eric Rowe, Utah - This fit makes too much sense, and it is rarely mocked. Rowe will be evaluated at both corner and safety. He is the best athlete among defensive backs this year and is long, two traits the Packers look for at the position.
31. New Orleans Saints (via Seahawks) - G Cameron Erving, FSU - Yes, the Saints added Max Unger. But a hole at one interior OL spot is glaring. Erving showed promise at left tackle, however, he solidified the Noles’ OL while at center. He is being evaluated at all three spots.
32. New England Patriots - LB Shaq Thompson, Washington - A forward thinking Bill Belichick could notice his lack of second level coverage defenders and love Shaq in this role. We have seen Thompson play man, stay patient and attack the ball at the catch point. He could be Mayo’s replacement as well.
