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We've had this debate here on ROD before. This is a pretty good piece on the topic;
<a class="postlink" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8991148/nfl-zone-option-running-qbs-not-hot-trend-many-think" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... many-think</a>
At the NFL combine, the talk every year is never just about the prospects. Like the first day of a new high school year, it's also about deciding which trends to embrace as a way of climbing the competitive social ladder. Coaches and GMs are peers eyeing each other and whispering about what is now real social currency and what is, in a football sense, played out. Scheme elements are denim, personnel trends music, and the recently cool -- the Jim Harbaughs, the Pete Carrolls -- help dictate the new scene.
The combine is where evaluators take those trends and view prospects as the tools to stay relevant or get ahead. This year, the dual-threat quarterback, the zone-read gunner, is in. An agent representing a quarterback in this class told me he now works harder to market a running threat as an aspect to his client's game and searches far and wide to find potential clients who fit the trend. A QB coach who trains NFL quarterbacks and prospects alike says "Teams are now always asking me if my guy is able to, in their words, 'beat defenders with the ball in his hands.'" It's not just evasion, it's the ability to attack.
The numbers tell the story. The chart at right shows that in 2012, QBs who had more than 30 designed runs more than doubled over 2011. All five of those quarterbacks were first- or second-year QBs, and you see some major offensive performance spikes for those teams in cases like Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco, Russell Wilson in Seattle and Robert Griffin III in Washington. Even Cam Newton and Ryan Tannehill helped their teams jump in win totals and proclaim the future brighter.
The trend is, by many accounts, here to stay. Right?
Maybe not. Here's why.
1. The money
The combined cap hit for Newton, RG III, Kaepernick, Wilson and Tannehill in 2012 was $12.85 million. That's a total that isn't just about nine weeks' worth of a full-season cap hit for Peyton Manning; it's also a smaller total than the single-year 2012 cap hit for 10 other NFL QBs. Yes, the total cap hit for those five was smaller than the cap hit for Carson Palmer ($15.335M) or Kevin Kolb ($13.5M) alone, enough to induce depression-based consumption for Raiders and Cardinals fans. But it won't stay that way.
The trend of running quarterbacks marries young legs and significantly diminished financial risks on the part of teams that called designed runs. It's one thing to put a young QB making the equivalent of about 0.4 percent of the team's total salary cap allotment (Wilson) at risk for a few hits; it's another to allow it when Wilson is making star QB cash, which can be closer to 15 percent of the total cap. Young QBs aren't just a good bet to see more designed runs because they have more speed, it's because they get paid young-QB money. Is that sustainable? Already, a team like the Redskins won't be able to swallow the risk associated with having RG III run 77 times by design, and he won't even be among their top 10 cap hits in 2013. The consequences are too significant.
2. The skill hierarchy
The good thing for the Redskins, and every other team that called so many designed run options, is that every QB on this list offered more as a passer than as a runner. As I noted well before he got hurt, RG III's future isn't so bright just because he is a perpetual running threat; it's because he's an advanced NFL passer, fully capable of making reads, maneuvering through conflict, manipulating defenses with his eyes and delivering strikes on time both short and deep down the field. Even guys with less impressive passing résumés like Newton and Tannehill are capable of developing into elite NFL passers. The issue is, on a yards-per-play basis, they're all already bigger threats as passers. Every one of them.
Now, the counterargument says Wilson, Newton, RG III and Kaepernick are effective passers in part because they are threats to run -- keeping linebackers off-balance and safeties with eyes locked in the backfield and not on X and Z receivers flying by them down the field. But it's also true that the threat of the pass has made defenses more susceptible to each as a runner. And in the case where zone-read looks are used (and yes, there are many scheme variations we can bring into this), defensive ends and pass-rushing 3-4 OLBs also halt their pursuit of sacks for fear of getting burned by the run. Kaepernick ran exactly twice in San Francisco's playoff win over Atlanta, a game where he went 16-of-21 for 233 yards and a 127.7 passer rating. The threat mattered, not the run itself.
3. The adjustment
In Indy, the talk among coaches isn't just about the QB prospects who could continue the recent trend; it's about how to stop them. The combine is like a gathering of the world's best hedge-fund managers, a mix of competitive and secretive yet ready to debate new ways to attack the market. ESPN analyst and longtime NFL general manager Bill Polian told me he had already spoken to several coaches about new methods to not merely survive dual-threat QBs but to attack them. There's talk of loading up on athletic defensive ends to present 4-3 looks where all four down lineman are essentially defensive ends, able to attack the backfield and create more hits on QBs.
And consider the power of increased familiarity. Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll aren't just familiar with the skill set of running QBs because they play each other. They're familiar because they have one of their own. Mike Shanahan sees Chip Kelly enter the NFC East as a coach with expertise in how to use the threat of a QB capable of gashing defenses with the run. New Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley told me he's "definitely got some ideas" on how to slow the running QB. Of course he does; he was Carroll's defensive coordinator and helped shut down the San Fran rushing attack in Seattle's Week 16 blowout of the Niners in 2012. Familiarity doesn't just breed contempt. In the NFL, it breeds solutions.
4. The supply
The 2011 draft class gave us Newton and Kaepernick. Last year gave us Wilson, RG III and the underrated athleticism of Tannehill. This year's class isn't just short on certainty for elite NFL passers; it also lacks certain run threats. Geno Smith might be athletic, but he's a comfortable pocket passer who ran for 118 yards in 2011 and 2012 -- combined. Matt Barkley is no running threat. Neither is Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray or Ryan Nassib. EJ Manuel is a good athlete, but he's not even a certainty to be ready to start as a rookie from a passing standpoint.
Evaluators looking to find a quarterback who can help turn their offense on to the new trend are looking at a pretty picked-over mall. That leads us to a final hurdle for the trend.
5. The playbook
When RG III was injured during the regular season (concussion) and during the playoffs (knee), Washington turned the offense over to backup Kirk Cousins. There are far worse backup QBs to hand the ball to, but Cousins during the regular season ran a total of three times and in that postseason loss to Seattle just once -- for one yard. Washington was left with a situation where, in the absence of its No. 1, it had to dramatically downgrade the running threat of the QB.
It shifted the playbook. The Redskins knew it, and the defense knew it. Teams that rely on the run threat of their starting QB don't just gamble on a risk of injury and the financial concerns associated with that dual-threat QB taking up an ever-increasing piece of the salary cap. They also run the risk of requiring a diminished playbook if that starter is lost.
The supposed "luxury" of a quality backup is mitigated because the backup has such a different set of skills. As noted in the previous item, the supply of quarterbacks in the draft who offer what the dual-threat starter can is minimal.
The dual-threat QB, the zone read, the many scheme advantages that we saw teams take advantage of in 2012 -- they aren't going to disappear. Newton, at a cut 250-plus pounds, won't stop seeing designed runs called for him anytime soon. Nor should he. But on the aggregate, financial risk, the effectiveness of the pass, the depth chart, the playbook and a stalled supply line will be causing the trend-setters to rethink the future.
In a league where what's cool constantly shifts, sometimes a return to convention is what will keep you hip, and winning, for the long run.
<a class="postlink" href="http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8991148/nfl-zone-option-running-qbs-not-hot-trend-many-think" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/ ... many-think</a>
At the NFL combine, the talk every year is never just about the prospects. Like the first day of a new high school year, it's also about deciding which trends to embrace as a way of climbing the competitive social ladder. Coaches and GMs are peers eyeing each other and whispering about what is now real social currency and what is, in a football sense, played out. Scheme elements are denim, personnel trends music, and the recently cool -- the Jim Harbaughs, the Pete Carrolls -- help dictate the new scene.
The combine is where evaluators take those trends and view prospects as the tools to stay relevant or get ahead. This year, the dual-threat quarterback, the zone-read gunner, is in. An agent representing a quarterback in this class told me he now works harder to market a running threat as an aspect to his client's game and searches far and wide to find potential clients who fit the trend. A QB coach who trains NFL quarterbacks and prospects alike says "Teams are now always asking me if my guy is able to, in their words, 'beat defenders with the ball in his hands.'" It's not just evasion, it's the ability to attack.
The numbers tell the story. The chart at right shows that in 2012, QBs who had more than 30 designed runs more than doubled over 2011. All five of those quarterbacks were first- or second-year QBs, and you see some major offensive performance spikes for those teams in cases like Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco, Russell Wilson in Seattle and Robert Griffin III in Washington. Even Cam Newton and Ryan Tannehill helped their teams jump in win totals and proclaim the future brighter.
The trend is, by many accounts, here to stay. Right?
Maybe not. Here's why.
1. The money
The combined cap hit for Newton, RG III, Kaepernick, Wilson and Tannehill in 2012 was $12.85 million. That's a total that isn't just about nine weeks' worth of a full-season cap hit for Peyton Manning; it's also a smaller total than the single-year 2012 cap hit for 10 other NFL QBs. Yes, the total cap hit for those five was smaller than the cap hit for Carson Palmer ($15.335M) or Kevin Kolb ($13.5M) alone, enough to induce depression-based consumption for Raiders and Cardinals fans. But it won't stay that way.
The trend of running quarterbacks marries young legs and significantly diminished financial risks on the part of teams that called designed runs. It's one thing to put a young QB making the equivalent of about 0.4 percent of the team's total salary cap allotment (Wilson) at risk for a few hits; it's another to allow it when Wilson is making star QB cash, which can be closer to 15 percent of the total cap. Young QBs aren't just a good bet to see more designed runs because they have more speed, it's because they get paid young-QB money. Is that sustainable? Already, a team like the Redskins won't be able to swallow the risk associated with having RG III run 77 times by design, and he won't even be among their top 10 cap hits in 2013. The consequences are too significant.
2. The skill hierarchy
The good thing for the Redskins, and every other team that called so many designed run options, is that every QB on this list offered more as a passer than as a runner. As I noted well before he got hurt, RG III's future isn't so bright just because he is a perpetual running threat; it's because he's an advanced NFL passer, fully capable of making reads, maneuvering through conflict, manipulating defenses with his eyes and delivering strikes on time both short and deep down the field. Even guys with less impressive passing résumés like Newton and Tannehill are capable of developing into elite NFL passers. The issue is, on a yards-per-play basis, they're all already bigger threats as passers. Every one of them.
Now, the counterargument says Wilson, Newton, RG III and Kaepernick are effective passers in part because they are threats to run -- keeping linebackers off-balance and safeties with eyes locked in the backfield and not on X and Z receivers flying by them down the field. But it's also true that the threat of the pass has made defenses more susceptible to each as a runner. And in the case where zone-read looks are used (and yes, there are many scheme variations we can bring into this), defensive ends and pass-rushing 3-4 OLBs also halt their pursuit of sacks for fear of getting burned by the run. Kaepernick ran exactly twice in San Francisco's playoff win over Atlanta, a game where he went 16-of-21 for 233 yards and a 127.7 passer rating. The threat mattered, not the run itself.
3. The adjustment
In Indy, the talk among coaches isn't just about the QB prospects who could continue the recent trend; it's about how to stop them. The combine is like a gathering of the world's best hedge-fund managers, a mix of competitive and secretive yet ready to debate new ways to attack the market. ESPN analyst and longtime NFL general manager Bill Polian told me he had already spoken to several coaches about new methods to not merely survive dual-threat QBs but to attack them. There's talk of loading up on athletic defensive ends to present 4-3 looks where all four down lineman are essentially defensive ends, able to attack the backfield and create more hits on QBs.
And consider the power of increased familiarity. Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll aren't just familiar with the skill set of running QBs because they play each other. They're familiar because they have one of their own. Mike Shanahan sees Chip Kelly enter the NFC East as a coach with expertise in how to use the threat of a QB capable of gashing defenses with the run. New Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley told me he's "definitely got some ideas" on how to slow the running QB. Of course he does; he was Carroll's defensive coordinator and helped shut down the San Fran rushing attack in Seattle's Week 16 blowout of the Niners in 2012. Familiarity doesn't just breed contempt. In the NFL, it breeds solutions.
4. The supply
The 2011 draft class gave us Newton and Kaepernick. Last year gave us Wilson, RG III and the underrated athleticism of Tannehill. This year's class isn't just short on certainty for elite NFL passers; it also lacks certain run threats. Geno Smith might be athletic, but he's a comfortable pocket passer who ran for 118 yards in 2011 and 2012 -- combined. Matt Barkley is no running threat. Neither is Mike Glennon, Tyler Bray or Ryan Nassib. EJ Manuel is a good athlete, but he's not even a certainty to be ready to start as a rookie from a passing standpoint.
Evaluators looking to find a quarterback who can help turn their offense on to the new trend are looking at a pretty picked-over mall. That leads us to a final hurdle for the trend.
5. The playbook
When RG III was injured during the regular season (concussion) and during the playoffs (knee), Washington turned the offense over to backup Kirk Cousins. There are far worse backup QBs to hand the ball to, but Cousins during the regular season ran a total of three times and in that postseason loss to Seattle just once -- for one yard. Washington was left with a situation where, in the absence of its No. 1, it had to dramatically downgrade the running threat of the QB.
It shifted the playbook. The Redskins knew it, and the defense knew it. Teams that rely on the run threat of their starting QB don't just gamble on a risk of injury and the financial concerns associated with that dual-threat QB taking up an ever-increasing piece of the salary cap. They also run the risk of requiring a diminished playbook if that starter is lost.
The supposed "luxury" of a quality backup is mitigated because the backup has such a different set of skills. As noted in the previous item, the supply of quarterbacks in the draft who offer what the dual-threat starter can is minimal.
The dual-threat QB, the zone read, the many scheme advantages that we saw teams take advantage of in 2012 -- they aren't going to disappear. Newton, at a cut 250-plus pounds, won't stop seeing designed runs called for him anytime soon. Nor should he. But on the aggregate, financial risk, the effectiveness of the pass, the depth chart, the playbook and a stalled supply line will be causing the trend-setters to rethink the future.
In a league where what's cool constantly shifts, sometimes a return to convention is what will keep you hip, and winning, for the long run.
